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MMA Wagering UnderGround >> New to betting. Good or dumb idea?


8/16/06 6:01 PM
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ECWCock
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Edited: 16-Aug-06
Member Since: 06/24/2002
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I've been considering my hand at betting MMA for a couple of months now, but have yet to pull the trigger. I guess I'm too much of a pussy to bet on stuff that I am so passionate about. I also figure the bookies know more than me, so why bet against them? What are the odds of beating the books by betting the underdog? Odessa told me awhile back not to go with other's picks, but to do my own research. Well, I don't have the expertise to do this. How do you guys figure who to bet on? Also, as far as mma betting goes (be honest here), how many of you actually make money doing this, and who loses their shirt? I would guess that most people end up getting ass-fucked betting agianst the books, but what do I know.
8/16/06 6:02 PM
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ECWCock
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Edited: 16-Aug-06
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I realize the dumbity of asking if betting is a bad idea on a betting board, btw.
8/16/06 6:09 PM
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ECWCock
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Edited: 16-Aug-06
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Another question. Steven Quatros, The Fight Professor, knows more about the fight game than almost anybody. He makes his picks before most of the big shows. Has anybody kept a long-running record to see how his picks hold up after the fights? After all, if he can't get it right, what real chance does anyone have!
8/16/06 6:43 PM
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Mil Mascaras
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Edited: 16-Aug-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
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I've been doing pretty well on MMA betting. If you've been watching a while (I've been watching since 1999) there are usually two types of fights (to keep it simple). First: "Okay, this guy's gonna beat this guy pretty easily" and second: "Hey, I don't know who's gonna win this fight, it'll be fun to watch and see who wins" I never bet on the second type of fight just "to make it more exciting". Obviously you'll get more return on your money, though, since the odds are closer. The first type, where one guy should win easily, is the kind I bet on. The odds aren't as good, so you have to put up more to win, so you wind up grinding out your money slowly. So for example, I'm betting on Riggs tomorrow, but not on Diego/Karo. I bet on Tito/Shamrock but not Griffin/Bonnar coming up. Okay, you get the point. Now, the danger is that gambling, especially winning, is very exciting, and addicting. And the UFC isn't exactly available to bet on every week...get my point? So then you're like, "hmmmm, so-and-so has won the Hot Dog eating contest X amount of years in a row, how can he lose??" (See "Weirdest thing you've bet on") Never bet more than you're willing to lose and don't come into this counting on winnings to help pay your car payment, because scared money never wins. If you make extra money and want to try this out come in with the mentality that you're gonna make some picks that YOU know to be solid and don't worry too much about the odds (well, unless it's $700 to win $100, then be careful, anything can still happen, a guy going off at -1700 last week lost). Lastly, you WILL constantly be on Sherdog.com now checking fighters records, records of who've they've beat/lost to...oh what fun! Oh yeah, I've also got $1000 Aronian to advance to the seconde round in the 2006 World Chess Championship!!!! I don't know jack about chess :-)
8/16/06 11:12 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 16-Aug-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 16168
The best advice I will give you is that I wouldn't bet too many fighters at over -250 in MMA. You have to look for good values. Good luck.
8/17/06 1:07 AM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 17-Aug-06
Member Since: 06/08/2002
Posts: 7066
JoeyOddessa.com
Just manage your money well.  Picking winners is tough and gambling is a tough way to make a living.  If it looks too easy, its likley the wrong side of the fight/game. 
8/17/06 2:43 AM
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kuiva
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Edited: 17-Aug-06
Member Since: 02/12/2004
Posts: 32
start slowly and increase your betting amounts slowly as you begin to find a suitable betting strategy for yourself. i've kept some records of internet-pickers picks and quadros' picks are quite average compared to others. imo you should never bet a guy you think will prolly lose but has "good value".. because if you think he will lose then his odds don't have any value.
8/17/06 9:20 AM
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solidsnake
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Edited: 17-Aug-06
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MonaVie Active™
I've been killing on mma betting. Boxing however, I've had the worse luck with recently. Ike Quartey, Rahman, etc. Only bet what you know. It's so easy to come on here and take a tip that somebody is pumped up about, only to lose big.
8/17/06 11:30 AM
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CruJones
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Edited: 17-Aug-06
Member Since: 01/03/2003
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ttt
8/17/06 6:47 PM
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per
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Edited: 17-Aug-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 40
"I realize the dumbity of asking if betting is a bad idea on a betting board, bdw" This dude has the insight and humbleness of a true champion. Make him mod, now.
8/18/06 4:44 AM
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per
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Edited: 18-Aug-06
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Joking aside. someone said "imo you should never bet a guy you think will prolly lose but has "good value".. because if you think he will lose then his odds don't have any value." I am a newbie myself i have bet on 2 events so far. I am + - 0 so far, lost some because I bet on the fighters name rather than on the actual logical result. Big trap, do not go there (not that I am the one to speak). I won some on the best object in mma betting history as far as i know, matt hughes vs royce gracie. People looked past the facts and looked at the names. Classic. Well, back to the above quote: This should be fun. My plan is to bet some on 1 or 2 main bouts that i think have value and spread out a few really small underdog bets. You should not bet the fighter you think will lose, correct, but heck, if it is 1 or maybe 2 dollars it is not even money, you are just buying some extra excitement if you watch the fight live on tv. I bet zuluzinho to win over minotauro at like +1200. Zuluzinho is a pathetic fighter and made everyone laugh at his lack of mma knowledge but hey, he is slugger and they always have the punchers chance! Remember what Bob Sapp used to do to average competition after a few months of ma training. So if you want to have some fun doing this set aside 1 or 2 bucks for craziness along with your "sane" bets.
8/18/06 11:13 AM
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ECWCock
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Edited: 18-Aug-06
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"So if you want to have some fun doing this set aside 1 or 2 bucks for craziness along with your "sane" bets. " Wow, this quote deserves the boards opinion.
8/18/06 11:20 AM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 18-Aug-06
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JoeyOddessa.com

In past couple years I have started to equate the term value with losers. 

This is why.....

When you win a bet, you win.  When you lose, you say things like, I had the better of the number, it had value, it was the right side , the guy was live....and so on.

It lost. It wasnt the right side, the better of the number says who, and what value is there in losing money? And you can go bust betting LIVE DOGS that cannot win.

Anyways, I dont like using the word Value.  Its usually associated with a losing wager.

''Hey guys, I won big on Torress last night.  It was a value bet.....''

 Nah, I won on a dog last night. Not because of VALUE, Torress got there because the number on Healy was just not correct.

Good luck. :-)

8/18/06 5:09 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 18-Aug-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 16169
respect, shame on you. lol
8/18/06 9:50 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 18-Aug-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
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I've seen people make some good coin scalping. you need to have money in several diff books tho, which is a bitch. or you can bet on lines that you predict will go your way. then you bet on the other guy and either way you'll make money. my bud made $600 on the cummo/goulet fight by scalping it hardcore.
8/21/06 12:47 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 21-Aug-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 16175
lol. all I can say is good luck. lock and MMA don't belong in the same sentence. there are no locks in gambling in general. I've been a crazed MMA fan for 13 yrs and I've seen it all. you can win 5 smart bets in a row and then lose it all back by betting high chalk.
8/21/06 1:30 PM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 21-Aug-06
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JoeyOddessa.com

lock and MMA don't belong in the same sentence

I find myself agreeing with Surfin more every day.  Either he is taking some continuing ed classes, or I'm finally slipping. lol

8/21/06 3:04 PM
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CruJones
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Edited: 21-Aug-06
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ttt
8/21/06 4:28 PM
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JCNovak
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Edited: 21-Aug-06
Member Since: 05/26/2004
Posts: 850
thats true, everyone though Arlovski was a lock over Sylvia in their 2nd fight, Shogun over Coleman, Anderson Silva in the ROTR tournament against Okami. Silva was dq'd, but strange things can happen. A lot of people thought Lister was a lock too, and were sweating the end of his last fight.
8/21/06 4:31 PM
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ECWCock
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Edited: 21-Aug-06
Member Since: 06/24/2002
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The overall impression I'm getting, though nobody is saying it, is betting on MMA is a dumb idea. If my impression is wrong, speak up.
8/21/06 4:38 PM
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FightingMajor
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Edited: 21-Aug-06
Member Since: 11/23/2002
Posts: 4234
There is nothing wrong with betting big favorites, so long as you make damm sure they are solid in every category you can think of. You have to hit a high hit rate. I have had more trouble this year than any I can remember, and it is directly related to my search for "value". Joey's words about value are telling and true. It has cut into my profits badly this year. Most of the folks I know who truly turn a profit on betting fights, use solid favorites as the foundation. First and foremost, you must pick winners, and it does not matter if they are favorites. Lately, I am on an impressive winning streak, and most of my recent bets have been favorites, with the exception of +450 on Ray Austin, which was a push, so it did not kill my streak. I still play the dogs when the time is right, but you have to pick winners, first and foremost.
8/22/06 12:05 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 22-Aug-06
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 16176
lol @ O. I actually just finished another cooking class. I make a mean lasagna now. or maybe you've been training with Karo and he's been dropping you on your head too much? ;) Anderson Silva VS Daiju Takase. 'nuff said.

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