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MMA Wagering UnderGround >> UFC 67: Weight issues cause huge


2/3/07 4:25 PM
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Oddessa
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Edited: 03-Feb-07
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JoeyOddessa.com
 
UFC 67: Weight issues cause huge shift in odds

By Jason Logan
Sat, Feb 3, 2007



In tonight`s "All or Nothing" UFC main event, Travis Lutter will have to go with nothing.

The conditioning questions surrounding Lutter peaked when the Ultimate Fighter 4 winner failed to make weight for his middleweight title bout against Anderson Silva at UFC 67 this Saturday night.

Lutter, who was awarded the title shot as part of the UFC Reality Show, weighed in at 187 pounds during Friday’s weigh-in at the Mandolin Bay Event Center, putting him over the 185-pound limit and nixing the chance to become the next Middleweight champion.

While the fight will continue as scheduled, the middleweight crown will not be up for grabs. Bettors rushed to the sportsbooks after hearing the news of Lutter’s failed attempt to make weight, moving him from a +280 underdog to +375 as of Saturday morning.

"The line on Lutter-Silva moved so drastically for a couple reasons," says Joey Odessa, a mixed martial arts and boxing linesmaker. "Lutter drained himself trying to make weight. He will also forfeit a portion of his purse to Silva. The physical and mental toll fighters put themselves through when missing weight can be devastating."

The flood of action on Silva, who is now a -575 favorite, could also be because of Lutter’s inability to go deep into a fight and the extra weight could just add to his problem. Lutter’s camp insists his cardio is improved and that longevity shouldn’t be an issue come Saturday night.

"I don`t see this fight going that long. I`m going to go in there, take him down and beat him up," Lutter told the Houston Chronicle. "I don`t like to fight that long. Hopefully, we`ll get him out of there in two rounds."

Oddsmakers have taken Lutter’s history of short fights into consideration for UFC 67, but are more focused on the way the public will treat one of the more recognizable faces in the sport because of the popularity of The Ultimate Fighter shows.

“Public perception from TV exposure always influences the opening number,” says Odessa. “Lack of exposure to USA fans has given Silva a look of invincibility while the reality show makes Lutter appear human and very beatable. If anything, I think Silva is being over-hyped.”

Silva (17-4), who stands 6 feet tall and carries the nickname “The Spider”, has made quick work of his last two opponents. He knocked out TUF alumni, Chris Leben, 49 seconds into his UFC debut fight and won the middleweight title over Rich Franklin by way of first-round TKO last fall.

"His takedown defense is probably the weakest part of his game," Lutter told reporters. "I think his stand-up is incredible, and his jiu-jitsu`s okay, with his wrestling being the biggest hole. My game plan is to get him down and beat him up just enough so he gives me something (for a submission)."

Despite the one-sided number on Lutter, books aren’t counting out his ground grappling skills and Silva’s history of submission losses.

“On paper this bout looks one sided, but Travis Lutter may have the best chance of beating Silva out of all Silva`s previous UFC opponents,” says Odessa. “Lutter has a decent ground game. Despite public opinion, Lutter matches up well with Silva.”

Tonight’s non-title middleweight fight is part of a nine-bout card. Mixed martial arts bettors can watch all the action live on PPV from the Mandolay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.


http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=102015&tid=46&t=1
2/3/07 6:23 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 03-Feb-07
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these are the bets I like in order. I don't know where the #s are now, but these are the ones I've been recommending as live dogs. 1. Martin 2. Hoger 3. Lutter
2/4/07 1:53 AM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 04-Feb-07
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well Lutter was doing well until he gassed in that half-assed triangle and ate some boney-ass elbows. ouch. a veteran like him should not have so many weight cutting problems. he does have the skills to beat Silva, if he can get his head out of his ass next time. all the fights went how I expected them to, with maybe the exception of Edgar/Griffin. Edgar's leg may be hurt for a couple weeks after that sub attempt. that Huerta fight was strange as hell, but I didn't know anything about either guy going in. looks like his opponent may have faked like he was hurt to induce a foul? or maybe he did get rocked with that knee.... who knows.
2/4/07 3:05 AM
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tenchu
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Edited: 04-Feb-07
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Replay shows that the knee hit his shoulder. Actually, it didn't look like much of a knee - it was stuffed to some degree.

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