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MMA Wagering UnderGround >> Overeem +411


2/21/07 11:02 AM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 21-Feb-07 11:03 AM
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 17421
 
This is a great bet, IMO. Unless there's an injury I don't know about. I can see why he's the dog, because the guy gasses like it's free and he's inconsistent. But I see him manhandling Shogun early on. He could very possibly take him out before he tires.
2/21/07 1:27 PM
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usurper
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Edited: 21-Feb-07
Member Since: 03/12/2002
Posts: 8144
agreed.. bunch of great dogs in this event
2/21/07 5:42 PM
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dogobuckler
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Edited: 21-Feb-07
Member Since: 11/10/2006
Posts: 25
Who else do you guys like here. Man the chalk is nuts on this card. Surfin how do you still play at Pinny or is it a secret. What do you think of the IFL numbers at Betcris. Joey took albandia I believe.
2/21/07 8:08 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 21-Feb-07 08:09 PM
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 17425
it's a secret... fuck off! LOL= just kidding. I don't play at Pinny and don't know anyone else in the USA who does either. you know, I don't really bet on guys that I've never seen fight before. the only IFL guys I've witnessed are Lawler and Horwich. Horwich is a f**king weirdo, but he's also a pretty good fighter. and we all know Lawler's ups and downs. bets I like are: Sylvia (-280 at betcris is a shitty line, but I just see NO way in Hell that he loses this fight to Gramps) Dan H (good line) Nick D (better ground game than Gomi) of course A. Overeem AKA Mr Inconsistent Trigg (should probably lose, but he drops bombs and can theoretically beat anyone at his weight because of that. 1 punch can send a guy on queer street and win a fight for him) all of those guys are live doggs, IMO
2/21/07 9:50 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 21-Feb-07
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 17426
well I sure as hell wouldn't play Gomi at those odds. don't forget about Diaz's hands either. there are many ways I can see this fight going, but Nick is hard to hurt and he's very slippery. don't know enough about Danzig to comment on him.
2/21/07 10:42 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 21-Feb-07
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 17427
yeah. I just try to find the best lines. the dogs should usually lose and that's why they're dogs ;) it's pretty rare that the wrong guy is favored, but it does happen. man I'll be pulling for homeboy. hopefully he can survive Gomi's bombs and pull out a dec or something.
2/22/07 1:29 PM
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thembones
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Edited: 22-Feb-07
Member Since: 10/27/2006
Posts: 31
Surfin Joe, no offense, but I don't really follow your logic on some of these. Particularly on Diaz and Overeem. You say yourself that Overeem is inconsistent and gasses easily, but you can see him possibly taking out Shogun early. Of course, anything is possible, but when was the last time you saw Shogun get taken out early (other than the Coleman fluke). What about the fact that Overeem has fought guys on Shogun's level several times, and has always lost. He sometimes beats guys that are a step below the elite, but thats pretty much it. Coupled with the fact that Shogun has been consistently beating top guys...I don't see how Overeem is a live dog. I agree Overeem could make things exciting for the first few minutes...but that doesn't change the fact that 9 times out of 10 Shogun wins this matchup, IMO. And I did bet the shit out of Shogun early on...so we'll see I guess... As for Diaz, I don't see how the fact that he has a better ground game makes much of a difference. Diaz has strong BJJ but isn't a submission artist in MMA, and he has pretty shitty takedowns, and not an especially impressive top game. Because of Aurelio 1, its easy to forget that Gomi has pretty damn good takedown defence, and almost always finds a way to survive off his back (although that is a weak point). Diaz won't be taking Gomi to the ground unless he hurts him first...and IMO the only real reason Diaz tries to take Gomi down is if he feels like he is in trouble on his feet. Possibly the reach advantage poses a problem for the early going...I think Diaz is probably the tallest fighter Gomi has faced. Thats his only edge that will possibly make any difference though, IMO. I do agree with you strongly on Sylvia though, and I also feel Trigg has a moderate chance to win. Mostly cause it is going to be in the states and Misaki won't be able to do much to Trigg if he manages to stuff his takedown. Trigg could do the old wrestler LnP for the W, but on the feet he'll probably get hammered.
2/22/07 2:22 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 22-Feb-07
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 17438
fairly good post with some intelligent thought. Overeem was friggin manhandling Shogun in their first match. He came within milliseconds of choking him out with that guillotine, and that sucked all of his wind out. The dude is an awesome athlete and incredibly strong for such a lanky guy. +411 is worth a shot, IMO. Diaz is a tough little bastard and I think he can compete with Gomi, who I believe to be overrated because of his fairly average ground game. The guy throws hard bombs, but I do not think of him as the most skilled fighter. Put a gun to my head, and I predict that both Stairs and Nasty Nick will lose. But I still like both of those lines. good luck.
2/28/07 6:27 PM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 28-Feb-07
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 17466
Nice night of fights, finally saw the whole thing. Overeem is the most unpredictable MMA fighter ever. He could have easily won that fight, but ends up losing again. So far I'm 3 for 4 and I'll be 4 for 5 when Sylvia wastes Randy like it's free. "Maybe he was afraid, & hoping for the ref to bail him out, or maybe he is genuinely some other kind of human, and didn't want to hit Diaz when he was cut that bad." .... he wasn't doing that for Nick's benefit. Trust me. He was tired and he wanted out and he wanted the win. Dogshit sportsmanship, IMO.
3/1/07 2:36 AM
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sawdusk
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Edited: 01-Mar-07
Member Since: 07/04/2003
Posts: 1774
btw, surfin, nice call on the gomi fight... I had it tagged as a "lay-up" for gomi and paid for it...
3/1/07 3:18 AM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 01-Mar-07
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Posts: 17473
thanks man, appreciate it. I also won a SN bet lol. to be honest, I did think Gomi would pull out a win. but to me the odds were just way off.
3/1/07 4:46 AM
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sawdusk
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Edited: 01-Mar-07
Member Since: 07/04/2003
Posts: 1777
surfin... nice... what was the sn you gave the other guy?
3/1/07 5:07 AM
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surfin joe
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Edited: 01-Mar-07
Member Since: 01/01/2001
Posts: 17483
it was crowbar and I named him Surfin Joe Fan. It's a take-off on Bob Sapp Fan. crow is cool, so I couldn't just rip him a new one. if I had beaten CRE, he would have been seriously fuct. lol

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