OtherGround Forums BIG BROTHER 21 - official thread

9 days ago
4/15/16
Posts: 6889

I think they all know Jackson is a lock for the W if he makes final 2. Although Tommy has a lot of friends on the jury, so you never know for sure.

Since he can't play in next week's HoH, Jackson's game is riding on the Final 4 Veto competition. 

Nicole targeting Holly this week over Tommy may be a mistake. Holly sucks at comps, where's Tommy's held his own. 

It's been a below average season, but this final 5 has been pretty interesting.

I agree with Pretjah on the order of best to worst players left in the game, although Holly and Nicole are interchangeable imo.

 

 

9 days ago
5/9/06
Posts: 29468

Nicole has made a nice little run at the end.  Now that she used her veto to pull Cliff off the block, if she can get Cliff to agree with her to flip on michie and holly, and vote Holly off, that will be considered a pretty big move.  

Since michie can't be next HOH, like Hashtag says, his entire game rests on final 4 veto comp.   If Nicole, Cliff, or Tommy win it, in that situation, Michie is gone to the jury by any of those 3. 

 

If Nicole and Cliff send Tiny Dancer home, they give Holly a chance at final HOH, and michie and Holly both a chance at final 4 veto.   That scenerio seems like game suicide for Nicole and Cliff, IMO.

 

 

9 days ago
2/8/09
Posts: 17141

I still think you have to take a chance on trying to sending Michie home. Everyone know Michie deserves to win BB. If it doesn’t work well at least you tried. 

8 days ago
5/9/06
Posts: 29470
BRZ - 

I still think you have to take a chance on trying to sending Michie home. Everyone know Michie deserves to win BB. If it doesn’t work well at least you tried. 


I don't think they can send michie home now.  He's HOH.  One of them would have to win the next HOH, and then absolutely take a shot at michie

8 days ago
2/8/09
Posts: 17142
Morgz -
BRZ - 

I still think you have to take a chance on trying to sending Michie home. Everyone know Michie deserves to win BB. If it doesn’t work well at least you tried. 


I don't think they can send michie home now.  He's HOH.  One of them would have to win the next HOH, and then absolutely take a shot at michie

Oh I know that but what I mean is send Holly home with a agreement with tommy that they will send Michie home next regardless who wins next hoh. Keeping Holly around only for sure gives Michie a chance of staying. Nobody is beating Michie in the finals unless people are voting out of jealousy which could happen too. 

8 days ago
12/2/05
Posts: 14051

But I think taking Tommy to the final three is a huge risk.  The only people who can possibly beat him are Michie and Cliff.  He has too many friends on jury and has played pretty clean with no blood in his hands. 

Edited: 8 days ago
4/23/02
Posts: 93348

at this point you have to ask yourself

 

can I (not we) more likely beat Tommy or Holly in the next HOH competition.

 

Michie plays in the Veto comp no matter what so you have the same odds of beating/lossing to him no matter what

 

the only way to 100% be safe next week and make final 3 is win HOH vs tommy or holly or veto verse tommy or holly AND Michie

 

i know with out a doubt which odds i'd rather bank on...beating holly in HOH vs beating Tommy and Michie in veto you have to send Tommy home this week to give yourself best shot at final 3

8 days ago
2/8/09
Posts: 17145
Pretjah -

at this point you have to ask yourself

 

can I (not we) more likely beat Tommy or Holly in the next HOH competition.

 

Michie plays in the Veto comp no matter what so you have the same odds of beating/lossing to him no matter what

 

the only way to 100% be safe next week and make final 3 is win HOH vs tommy or holly or veto verse tommy or holly AND Michie

 

i know with out a doubt which odds i'd rather bank on...beating holly in HOH vs beating Tommy and Michie in veto you have to send Tommy home this week to give yourself best shot at final 3

You’re right that’s what Nicole needs to ask herself. Now thinking about it probably she should take her chance against Holly rather than Tommy.

Ultimately it comes down to the last POV anyway so. 

8 days ago
2/25/15
Posts: 4110
BRZ -
Pretjah -

at this point you have to ask yourself

 

can I (not we) more likely beat Tommy or Holly in the next HOH competition.

 

Michie plays in the Veto comp no matter what so you have the same odds of beating/lossing to him no matter what

 

the only way to 100% be safe next week and make final 3 is win HOH vs tommy or holly or veto verse tommy or holly AND Michie

 

i know with out a doubt which odds i'd rather bank on...beating holly in HOH vs beating Tommy and Michie in veto you have to send Tommy home this week to give yourself best shot at final 3

You’re right that’s what Nicole needs to ask herself. Now thinking about it probably she should take her chance against Holly rather than Tommy.

Ultimately it comes down to the last POV anyway so. 

I think you guys are putting way too much stock into Tommy’s ability to win the final veto, over the simple conversation Nicole and Cliff will have with him if he stays. 

 

“If we keep you, you are gunning to get Michie out.” 

 

The final veto will likely be the connect the dots on the wall challenge, with the jury members and dates. Which puts it in the same category as the veto that Nicole won last night. Also, if Tommy wins and casts the only vote to evict, how would that be worst case scenario for Cliff or Nicole? Tommy will obviously vote to evict Michie. 

 

I’m trying to understand your logic Pretjah... but I’m struggling a bit.

 

Keeping Holly makes no sense for Cliff and Nicole, imo.

8 days ago
12/2/05
Posts: 14052

Well I think what this really highlights is what a mistake it was to get rid of Misty over Tiny dancer.  Had she stayed, now it’d be her vs. Holly on the block.  Keep Christy, and then it’s a pretty easy HoH win for Nichole or Cliff.  Then they only have to beat Michie for Veto (not easy, but unavoidable). 

8 days ago
1/19/12
Posts: 31222
Morgz -

Nicole has made a nice little run at the end.  Now that she used her veto to pull Cliff off the block, if she can get Cliff to agree with her to flip on michie and holly, and vote Holly off, that will be considered a pretty big move.  

Since michie can't be next HOH, like Hashtag says, his entire game rests on final 4 veto comp.   If Nicole, Cliff, or Tommy win it, in that situation, Michie is gone to the jury by any of those 3. 

 

If Nicole and Cliff send Tiny Dancer home, they give Holly a chance at final HOH, and michie and Holly both a chance at final 4 veto.   That scenerio seems like game suicide for Nicole and Cliff, IMO.

 

 

Michie can’t play in the HoH, but that week the biggest power is Veto. Only the veto winner gets to decide who goes home. And Michie is almost a lock to win that.

8 days ago
2/25/15
Posts: 4111
ABCTT_GROUNDnLB -
Morgz -

Nicole has made a nice little run at the end.  Now that she used her veto to pull Cliff off the block, if she can get Cliff to agree with her to flip on michie and holly, and vote Holly off, that will be considered a pretty big move.  

Since michie can't be next HOH, like Hashtag says, his entire game rests on final 4 veto comp.   If Nicole, Cliff, or Tommy win it, in that situation, Michie is gone to the jury by any of those 3. 

 

If Nicole and Cliff send Tiny Dancer home, they give Holly a chance at final HOH, and michie and Holly both a chance at final 4 veto.   That scenerio seems like game suicide for Nicole and Cliff, IMO.

 

 

Michie can’t play in the HoH, but that week the biggest power is Veto. Only the veto winner gets to decide who goes home. And Michie is almost a lock to win that.

I disagree. 

 

Like I said above; it will likely be the connect the dots challenge with the jury members and dates. 

 

I would put my money on Nicole winning that challenge. Michie and Cliff could both win also. And again, it’s not worst case scenario if Tommy wins it. It would be if they kept Holly and she somehow managed to win it. 

 

There is no logical scenario why Cliff and Nicole should keep Holly.

8 days ago
4/23/02
Posts: 93351

rosie  the goal  HAS to be for YOU (individually) to get to final 3  - that's when the crap shoot begins and anyone can win final HOH

 

if your goal is to assure final 3 TOGETHER then yes you are more than likely going to keep tommy and hope he swears and holds up that he gets rid of michie if he has the chance

 

however  to 100% assure you go to final 3(again what has to be the goal) you have to either win the HOH or the veto next week.

 

the easiest way to assure your safety next week is to keep holly and compete agains each other (nicole/cliff)  and Holly  and win the HOH

 

competing against Michie is the least likely way to win safety next week (even if nicole may be the favorite to win the connect the dots timeline comp - which i'd not put her as a clear favorite to win anything)

 

ask yourself:

if i were sitting in that house and had a shot at 100% safety to the final three which of the three people would i want to compete against, holly, tommy or michie.  if the answer isn't holly you're lying to yourself.

8 days ago
4/23/02
Posts: 93352

We are past the "who can help my game"  or "playing as a team" phase of the game.

 

right now there are two questions to ask  "who can i beat in comps" and "who can i beat in a vote"  both of the answers to those questions are Holly

8 days ago
1/19/12
Posts: 31223
RosieODonnellsQueef -
ABCTT_GROUNDnLB -
Morgz -

Nicole has made a nice little run at the end.  Now that she used her veto to pull Cliff off the block, if she can get Cliff to agree with her to flip on michie and holly, and vote Holly off, that will be considered a pretty big move.  

Since michie can't be next HOH, like Hashtag says, his entire game rests on final 4 veto comp.   If Nicole, Cliff, or Tommy win it, in that situation, Michie is gone to the jury by any of those 3. 

 

If Nicole and Cliff send Tiny Dancer home, they give Holly a chance at final HOH, and michie and Holly both a chance at final 4 veto.   That scenerio seems like game suicide for Nicole and Cliff, IMO.

 

 

Michie can’t play in the HoH, but that week the biggest power is Veto. Only the veto winner gets to decide who goes home. And Michie is almost a lock to win that.

I disagree. 

 

Like I said above; it will likely be the connect the dots challenge with the jury members and dates. 

 

I would put my money on Nicole winning that challenge. Michie and Cliff could both win also. And again, it’s not worst case scenario if Tommy wins it. It would be if they kept Holly and she somehow managed to win it. 

 

There is no logical scenario why Cliff and Nicole should keep Holly.

Nicole has a tendency to choke on those types of competitions. Michie is more clutch. We’ll see though!

8 days ago
2/25/15
Posts: 4112
Pretjah -

We are past the "who can help my game"  or "playing as a team" phase of the game.

 

right now there are two questions to ask  "who can i beat in comps" and "who can i beat in a vote"  both of the answers to those questions are Holly

No we aren’t. 

 

Remember, the final HOH decides who they sit with in the final two. You’re never past the “who can help my game” portion in BB. 

 

Like somebody just said, the obvious choice would have been to keep Christie over Tommy, but everybody had their blinders on because Crusty was a conniving bitch. At this point you have to keep Tommy, regardless of who you are... to increase the odds of getting Michie out. Keeping Holly makes zero fucking sense, and I am grasping to understand your logic. Other than being able to beat her in final two. But you wouldn’t even see final two if you keep Holly over Tommy. 

8 days ago
2/25/15
Posts: 4113

Number one priority is getting Michie out next week, while he can’t compete for HOH. So if you’re Cliff or Nicole, or if you’re in the house Pretjah, you have to increase the odds of beating Michie in final Veto comp. Tommy will slay the dragon if he wins and you don’t, Holly would send your ass packing. Simple as that. I guarantee Cliff and Nicole draw the same logical conclusion and vote to evict Holly.

8 days ago
6/19/12
Posts: 7321

Seems like the obvious choice is to get rid of Holly. She is the weakest competitor, but sometimes these comps are complete random chance and Holly could fluke an HoH or veto win. 

So if you keep Holly, there is only a 50% chance to get rid of Michie next week. Keep Tommy and there is a 75% of getting rid of Michie. 

8 days ago
2/25/15
Posts: 4114

On top of that, if Michie does pull it off and win the veto, there would be a chance that he votes to evict Tommy instead of you. Albeit; that would be a slim chance, because you just blindsided his girl.

8 days ago
4/23/02
Posts: 93354
ABCTT_zebers3 -

Seems like the obvious choice is to get rid of Holly. She is the weakest competitor, but sometimes these comps are complete random chance and Holly could fluke an HoH or veto win. 

So if you keep Holly, there is only a 50% chance to get rid of Michie next week. Keep Tommy and there is a 75% of getting rid of Michie. 

these arent equal pieces.  holly has l

 

regardless of who is HOH next week the only way to get him out is if he doesn't win HOH or VETO

 

doesn't matter who HOH is next week, if michie wins veto

 

"Number one priority is getting Michie out next week," -Rosie

NOT EVEN CLOSE TO RIGHT

the BEST AND ONLY LOGICAL STRATEGY is playing for your safety next week.

the best way to be safe next week is YOU BE HOH.

 

 

the problem you are having grasping why it's the best strategy is you are looking at it as what is best for the group of them.   If you are sitting there in the house you #1 priority has to be make final 3.    and no picking who will be sitting next two you isn't about "who can help my game"  it's about who you can beat in the final vote. 

 

as for "christie vs tommy"  there is an arguemtn for keeping christie - horrible competitor, however she was a strong player and as far as resume building goes, getting christie out there, carries more weight then getting tommy out there.  so it's not as clear cut at that point.  this week that choice would be way easier.  and is exactly the point i'm making with Tommy vs Holly. 

8 days ago
4/23/02
Posts: 93355

this isn't the monty hall scenario where you are increasing options....because they aren't equal options or equal outcomes. 

 

 

8 days ago
2/25/15
Posts: 4115
Pretjah -

this isn't the monty hall scenario where you are increasing options....because they aren't equal options or equal outcomes. 

 

 

Are you Holly’s dad or something? 

 

The writing is on the wall man. It’s literally on this thread too. 

 

Holly needs to go. Then if you’re lucky, Michie follows behind her. 

8 days ago
4/23/02
Posts: 93356

last week, why would you want to get christy out before tommy?

8 days ago
4/23/02
Posts: 93357
RosieODonnellsQueef -
Pretjah -

this isn't the monty hall scenario where you are increasing options....because they aren't equal options or equal outcomes. 

 

 

Are you Holly’s dad or something? 

 

The writing is on the wall man. It’s literally on this thread too. 

 

Holly needs to go. Then if you’re lucky, Michie follows behind her. 

yes if you're lucky

 

i'll ask again

 

who are you more likely to beat  Holly or Tommy in HOH comp?

 

who are you more likely to beat Holly in HOH or win veto against tommy and Michie?

 

is a chance at getting michie out more important thatn 100% being safe next week?

 

 

if you don't answer

 

holly

holly

NO

 

you should never consider going onto BB as a house guest

8 days ago
2/25/15
Posts: 4116

The best and most logical strategy is always playing for your safety. Regardless of whether you’re in the Big Brother house or not. Always play to be safe. Always play to win. That’s a fucking given man. 

 

I can’t believe I’ve laid all this shit out on the table for you, and you’re still arguing. And now you’ve divolved to explaining the most basic game strategy to me, in an attempt to make me look stupid I guess? I’m not arguing about going out and trying to win the HOH. Obviously nobody is going to throw this HOH. Obviously everybody would love to have safety next week. Obviously that’s the number one priority. Guess I should have clarified that? Getting Michie out while he can’t compete for HOH is priority number 2!

 

Are you just trolling right now? Serious question...