OtherGround Forums Florida is doing it right

7/7/20 1:37 AM
1/7/09
Posts: 4768

Good data Piyo.  I’ve been keeping an eye on the total deaths which continue to trend down.  
 

Keep the olds locked away and carry on.

7/7/20 10:23 AM
7/15/02
Posts: 12009
David@accu -
Piyo - 
David@accu -
Piyo - 



Wow what happened towards the end of May that a couple weeks later would cause so many young people to get it.

Are you asking about protests? I think most of the protesters are dumb, but I actually don’t think it had much of an effect. I’m just being consistent. I have never thought outdoor transmission was a significant driver. Beaches, playgrounds, etc should be wide open for the same reason.

I think the spike was caused by reopening in combination with young people correctly assessing the virus poses a trivial risk to them and acting accordingly. For the vast majority of people catching it now, their daily commute poses a greater mortality risk. 


I wasn't being serious. The question was in jest

It's fine to be consistent but it does sort of ignore everything we know about highly communicable contagious viruses and how they spread. Granted, I'm sure being outside offers some barrier but because the wind is blowing say the guy next to you sneezes and has it. Sure it missed you but what about all the people behind him?

You're still making the same argument as me. More people in a given area = more problems. This is the same logic we have used for centuries in terms of viruses and disease. It shouldn't suddenly change for this.

I’m no big fan of the protests either, but outdoors is more than a small barrier. The air rapidly reduces particulate density. Throw in UV light that quickly breaks down the virus, and I just don’t think outdoor transmission is a reasonable worry unless you’re perhaps part of a very vulnerable demographic.

I think spread has increased because young people have correctly assessed the virus is a very low risk for them, certainly less than the risk of, say, their daily commute. So, they adjust accordingly.

 I think their could be an argument that protests indirectly contributed because “social distancing” was no longer top of the fold for the first time in months, but that’s it.

7/7/20 10:25 AM
3/9/13
Posts: 4779
Trust -

Still ample hospital bed availability in FL, regular and ICU.

Source?

 

I thought FL stopped sharing hospitalization info about the time that cases started increasing.

7/7/20 10:26 AM
7/15/02
Posts: 12010
TheDecider -

Good data Piyo.  I’ve been keeping an eye on the total deaths which continue to trend down.  
 

Keep the olds locked away and carry on.

To be clear, I think it’s possible deaths will tick up a bit. There is *some* increase in transmission to older people, but it’s relatively small, about 2x last I checked. So, I think a 2-2.5x increase is a *ceiling* on the subsequent increase. (Ceiling because fewer are in care homes, and treatment has improved.)

But even a temporary doubling of deaths would leave FL in a great position overall. If you look at overall mortality, it’s not even clear that CV has had a net effect on FL so far.

7/7/20 10:29 AM
7/15/02
Posts: 12011
Caladan -
Trust -

Still ample hospital bed availability in FL, regular and ICU.

Source?

 

I thought FL stopped sharing hospitalization info about the time that cases started increasing.

As is usually the case, *some* hospitals ran out of “official” ICU beds, but can still get ICU-level care with facilities that were ready for conversion, and overall FL still has plenty of slack,

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-coronavirus-hospitalization-update-20200707-rvk6g2zibnawrh57ovtef3d4hy-story.html

7/7/20 10:31 AM
12/25/15
Posts: 2716

Sound like they are going to need a more deadlier virus next time.

7/7/20 10:33 AM
5/11/08
Posts: 2677


7/7/20 10:33 AM
5/11/08
Posts: 2678


7/7/20 10:36 AM
5/11/08
Posts: 2679


meant to post this one instead of the second one, which is a duplicate. sorry
7/7/20 10:38 AM
3/3/18
Posts: 287
TheDecider -

Good data Piyo.  I’ve been keeping an eye on the total deaths which continue to trend down.  
 

Keep the olds locked away and carry on.

Deaths are trending up in Florida. 

7/7/20 10:39 AM
12/6/14
Posts: 2517

 

7/7/20 10:53 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 99585
Crazy Larry - 
TheDecider -

Good data Piyo.  I’ve been keeping an eye on the total deaths which continue to trend down.  
 

Keep the olds locked away and carry on.

Deaths are trending up in Florida. 


It is, slightly.  

The highest number of deaths in one day in FL is 83.  That was 4/28.   The most recent peak on July 3 was 68.  The peak 7 day rolling average was 51.  

For comparison, NY had a peak of 1,025 in one day, and a peak 7 day rolling average of 956.  

FL has about 22 million people, NY has about 19.5 million.  

7/7/20 10:58 AM
3/3/18
Posts: 288
Trust -
Crazy Larry - 
TheDecider -

Good data Piyo.  I’ve been keeping an eye on the total deaths which continue to trend down.  
 

Keep the olds locked away and carry on.

Deaths are trending up in Florida. 


It is, slightly.  

The highest number of deaths in one day in FL is 83.  That was 4/28.   The most recent peak on July 3 was 68.  The peak 7 day rolling average was 51.  

For comparison, NY had a peak of 1,025 in one day, and a peak 7 day rolling average of 956.  

FL has about 22 million people, NY has about 19.5 million.  

"Deaths are still acceptably low" is an entirely differenta, and subjective, statement than "deaths are trending down", which is factually false. 

7/7/20 11:33 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 99588
Crazy Larry - 
Trust -
Crazy Larry - 
TheDecider -

Good data Piyo.  I’ve been keeping an eye on the total deaths which continue to trend down.  
 

Keep the olds locked away and carry on.

Deaths are trending up in Florida. 


It is, slightly.  

The highest number of deaths in one day in FL is 83.  That was 4/28.   The most recent peak on July 3 was 68.  The peak 7 day rolling average was 51.  

For comparison, NY had a peak of 1,025 in one day, and a peak 7 day rolling average of 956.  

FL has about 22 million people, NY has about 19.5 million.  

"Deaths are still acceptably low" is an entirely differenta, and subjective, statement than "deaths are trending down", which is factually false. 


Not an argument I made.  I made the comparison because some people are pointing to the lack of any recent increase in NY and alleging it's an indication they "did it right" and FL's increase indicates the governor is Nazi Satan for "opening up too soon." 

FL, a state with a little larger population than NY and far more elderly, has had about 1/10th the death rate of NY.  I've been in FL the whole time. My brother in law and his family live in Brooklyn and left NY in March.  They have been staying in central FL. 

It will take a bit of time to see what the effect is in FL.  

Here's the FL case data with the 7 day rolling average:

Here the deaths:

7/7/20 11:39 AM
5/3/01
Posts: 29884
Piyo - 
prof - Well, I will certainly take the view of the OP - one of the fine OG Scientists - over virtually all trained professionals.

Do you also do climate and economic forecasts, I hope?

LOL at virtually all trained professionals disagreeing. I have been correct on just about every prediction I’ve made in this thing. I predicted Japan would come out awesome when the NYT was predicting disaster. I was estimating a .3% population-weighted IFR for the US when morons like Fauci were still saying 1% or more. I said masks were incredibly effective from the very beginning, when the CDC, Fauci, the WHO, and the surgeon general were all letting the dumbest shit possible pour out their word holes.

Am I a genius epidemiologist? No. But I have a solid STEM background and read the counterpoints of a vast group of professional epidemiologists who were absolutely not fringe but weren’t following the clickbait mainstream. That group was internally consistent and better grounded in data than absolute fuckwits like Fauci, who as far as I can tell has never done anything of real substance. He’s just a peacetime general who was good at sucking enough dick to climb the political ladder.

I’m gonna be right again. We’ll see if you’ll admit it in two weeks when it’s undeniable. 


what, exactly, is your STEM background?

if you have one, you'll be able to readily and falsifiably cite your "vast group of professional epidemiologists" and exactly where they fall vs "the fringe" -- which you'll also define falsifiably.

given your attitude toward Fauci, it's obvious you either don't have a background in history or political science or you're willing to lie about principle issues that don't fit your preferred conclusion, which isn't very STEM-my of you, bro.

7/7/20 12:26 PM
7/15/02
Posts: 12012
pbody -


1) Once again, I bet the hospitals in that county can quickly convert regular rooms with ICU-level care because hospitals regularly run ICUs near capacity and can adjust for overrun.

2) Baker county is a sparsely populated area adjacent to Duval, which has ICU. They will send patients there. I bet a large fraction of the county lives as close to a Duval ICU as to a Baker ICU.

Next.

7/7/20 12:30 PM
6/30/07
Posts: 63076

"Florida is doing it right" is a phrase seldom uttered.

 

 

7/7/20 12:36 PM
7/15/02
Posts: 12013
Crazy Larry -
Trust -
Crazy Larry - 
TheDecider -

Good data Piyo.  I’ve been keeping an eye on the total deaths which continue to trend down.  
 

Keep the olds locked away and carry on.

Deaths are trending up in Florida. 


It is, slightly.  

The highest number of deaths in one day in FL is 83.  That was 4/28.   The most recent peak on July 3 was 68.  The peak 7 day rolling average was 51.  

For comparison, NY had a peak of 1,025 in one day, and a peak 7 day rolling average of 956.  

FL has about 22 million people, NY has about 19.5 million.  

"Deaths are still acceptably low" is an entirely differenta, and subjective, statement than "deaths are trending down", which is factually false. 

I never said deaths were trending down for Florida. At the very top I predicted a ceiling for the subsequent increase.

Yes, what counts as an acceptable number of deaths is a value-laden decision. However, we can expect people to be internally consistent with their value judgements. People want to shut down the state when Florida hasn’t even shown excess overall mortality from this so far. For people under 50 in Florida, the risk on average is something like a year of driving or less. And the calculations look even worse if you use life years in your calculations because this virus is virtually harmless for the very young. 

7/7/20 12:38 PM
7/15/02
Posts: 12014
Peixes -
Piyo - 
prof - Well, I will certainly take the view of the OP - one of the fine OG Scientists - over virtually all trained professionals.

Do you also do climate and economic forecasts, I hope?

LOL at virtually all trained professionals disagreeing. I have been correct on just about every prediction I’ve made in this thing. I predicted Japan would come out awesome when the NYT was predicting disaster. I was estimating a .3% population-weighted IFR for the US when morons like Fauci were still saying 1% or more. I said masks were incredibly effective from the very beginning, when the CDC, Fauci, the WHO, and the surgeon general were all letting the dumbest shit possible pour out their word holes.

Am I a genius epidemiologist? No. But I have a solid STEM background and read the counterpoints of a vast group of professional epidemiologists who were absolutely not fringe but weren’t following the clickbait mainstream. That group was internally consistent and better grounded in data than absolute fuckwits like Fauci, who as far as I can tell has never done anything of real substance. He’s just a peacetime general who was good at sucking enough dick to climb the political ladder.

I’m gonna be right again. We’ll see if you’ll admit it in two weeks when it’s undeniable. 


what, exactly, is your STEM background?

if you have one, you'll be able to readily and falsifiably cite your "vast group of professional epidemiologists" and exactly where they fall vs "the fringe" -- which you'll also define falsifiably.

given your attitude toward Fauci, it's obvious you either don't have a background in history or political science or you're willing to lie about principle issues that don't fit your preferred conclusion, which isn't very STEM-my of you, bro.

Masters in math and computer science.

7/7/20 12:40 PM
3/28/02
Posts: 8568
Peixes -
Piyo - 
prof - Well, I will certainly take the view of the OP - one of the fine OG Scientists - over virtually all trained professionals.

Do you also do climate and economic forecasts, I hope?

LOL at virtually all trained professionals disagreeing. I have been correct on just about every prediction I’ve made in this thing. I predicted Japan would come out awesome when the NYT was predicting disaster. I was estimating a .3% population-weighted IFR for the US when morons like Fauci were still saying 1% or more. I said masks were incredibly effective from the very beginning, when the CDC, Fauci, the WHO, and the surgeon general were all letting the dumbest shit possible pour out their word holes.

Am I a genius epidemiologist? No. But I have a solid STEM background and read the counterpoints of a vast group of professional epidemiologists who were absolutely not fringe but weren’t following the clickbait mainstream. That group was internally consistent and better grounded in data than absolute fuckwits like Fauci, who as far as I can tell has never done anything of real substance. He’s just a peacetime general who was good at sucking enough dick to climb the political ladder.

I’m gonna be right again. We’ll see if you’ll admit it in two weeks when it’s undeniable. 


what, exactly, is your STEM background?

if you have one, you'll be able to readily and falsifiably cite your "vast group of professional epidemiologists" and exactly where they fall vs "the fringe" -- which you'll also define falsifiably.

given your attitude toward Fauci, it's obvious you either don't have a background in history or political science or you're willing to lie about principle issues that don't fit your preferred conclusion, which isn't very STEM-my of you, bro.

He has an emotional driven narrative that is, at best, orthogonal to the evidence 

Dont ruin it!

7/7/20 12:50 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 99590
Piyo - 
pbody -


1) Once again, I bet the hospitals in that county can quickly convert regular rooms with ICU-level care because hospitals regularly run ICUs near capacity and can adjust for overrun.

2) Baker county is a sparsely populated area adjacent to Duval, which has ICU. They will send patients there. I bet a large fraction of the county lives as close to a Duval ICU as to a Baker ICU.

Next.


Yes.  Baker Co. has had 110 cases total, and 4 deaths.  

7/7/20 1:33 PM
5/11/08
Posts: 2682
Piyo -
pbody -


1) Once again, I bet the hospitals in that county can quickly convert regular rooms with ICU-level care because hospitals regularly run ICUs near capacity and can adjust for overrun.

2) Baker county is a sparsely populated area adjacent to Duval, which has ICU. They will send patients there. I bet a large fraction of the county lives as close to a Duval ICU as to a Baker ICU.

Next.

I wasn't arguing with you. Was merely pointing out that Florida has 20% of ICU beds open statewide, and 25% of hospital beds. Seems it's not nearly as bad as people are making it out to be.

7/7/20 1:39 PM
3/3/18
Posts: 291
In Florida, 43 hospital ICU’s in 21 counties have hit capacity and show zero ICU beds available, according to data released by the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA). This includes hospitals in the following counties:
 
Miami-Dade (which includes the city of Miami)
Broward (which includes Fort Lauderdale)
Hillsborough (which includes Tampa)
Orange (which includes Orlando)
 
Another 32 hospitals show ICU bed availability of 10% or less, per the AHCA data.
7/7/20 1:44 PM
7/15/02
Posts: 12015
pbody -
Piyo -
pbody -


1) Once again, I bet the hospitals in that county can quickly convert regular rooms with ICU-level care because hospitals regularly run ICUs near capacity and can adjust for overrun.

2) Baker county is a sparsely populated area adjacent to Duval, which has ICU. They will send patients there. I bet a large fraction of the county lives as close to a Duval ICU as to a Baker ICU.

Next.

I wasn't arguing with you. Was merely pointing out that Florida has 20% of ICU beds open statewide, and 25% of hospital beds. Seems it's not nearly as bad as people are making it out to be.

Ah, I see. My bad. 

7/7/20 1:52 PM
7/15/02
Posts: 12016
EazyG -
Peixes -
Piyo - 
prof - Well, I will certainly take the view of the OP - one of the fine OG Scientists - over virtually all trained professionals.

Do you also do climate and economic forecasts, I hope?

LOL at virtually all trained professionals disagreeing. I have been correct on just about every prediction I’ve made in this thing. I predicted Japan would come out awesome when the NYT was predicting disaster. I was estimating a .3% population-weighted IFR for the US when morons like Fauci were still saying 1% or more. I said masks were incredibly effective from the very beginning, when the CDC, Fauci, the WHO, and the surgeon general were all letting the dumbest shit possible pour out their word holes.

Am I a genius epidemiologist? No. But I have a solid STEM background and read the counterpoints of a vast group of professional epidemiologists who were absolutely not fringe but weren’t following the clickbait mainstream. That group was internally consistent and better grounded in data than absolute fuckwits like Fauci, who as far as I can tell has never done anything of real substance. He’s just a peacetime general who was good at sucking enough dick to climb the political ladder.

I’m gonna be right again. We’ll see if you’ll admit it in two weeks when it’s undeniable. 


what, exactly, is your STEM background?

if you have one, you'll be able to readily and falsifiably cite your "vast group of professional epidemiologists" and exactly where they fall vs "the fringe" -- which you'll also define falsifiably.

given your attitude toward Fauci, it's obvious you either don't have a background in history or political science or you're willing to lie about principle issues that don't fit your preferred conclusion, which isn't very STEM-my of you, bro.

He has an emotional driven narrative that is, at best, orthogonal to the evidence 

Dont ruin it!

Orthogonal to evidence? What evidence are you talking about?

Even the CDC now says the best estimate IFR for people under 50 is .05%. For the median age of new cases in Florida, twenty-something, it’s gonna be even lower, pessimistically .006% or so.

Are you disagreeing with the CDC here?

You could argue you that it’s literally impossible to guard the aged while letting the virus spread among the young, but that runs counter to exactly what we’re seeing right now. Look at GA and CA, too. Even longer periods of case increase with no rise in deaths.

Please, show me some evidence I’m missing that isn’t the ranting of politicallt-minded pearl-clutchers on Twitter.