The lower the average age of positives the better. That means a much higher chance of recovery and we are effectively protecting the more vulnerable populations. The idea we can fully stop the virus by closing things down again is insane, we can’t. The number of people being tested now is exponentially higher than when things first started. Now everyone is getting tested symptomatic or not. Before you could only get tested if you had symptoms AND direct contact with a known positive person. The more testing is a good thing. But it’s also spreading fear.
If you live with or regularly interact with vulnerable people then you should exercise extreme caution. Do everything possible to mitigate the risk to you and them. If not you should still exercise caution but going to work isn’t as concerning.
no, that's not what this means. consider...if we increase the infection among 20 year olds by 10 times, and only double it among those 65+. the average age might go down, however all of the "bad" effects of COVID (hospitalizations and deaths) still occur. they aren't somehow canceled out just because lots and lots of young people have it and they will largely be fine.
this is what you are seeing in florida, and other states where the spread is not under control. focus on average age or death rate is just a game for those states to pat themselves on the back for having uncontrolled spread among the young. it is not an accomplishment.
And that is exactly what I said. It looks like the infection rate of those 65+ has approximately doubled, which is why I put about a 2x ceiling on the future mortality curve. It may be less if fewer of those 65+ are in care homes and/or treatment has improved.
But so what? Florida’s deaths have been so tiny so far that it’s not even showing up in excess mortality. Double a very small number is still very small. If they can open up the state, get people to work, kids back in school, etc., while keeping deaths at that level, that’s a win.
except for the hospital situation getting worse with each week. right? that's the downside.
the framing of this as just the cost of opening up is fallacious. there really isn't much difference of what is open in florida and what is open in NY now (except indoor dining in NYC). the only major difference i can think of is gyms. yet, in ny with each phase of opening the rate of infection continued to go down.
Are you suggesting we will end up with a similar total number of deaths as NY has? Right now FL has never had a day over 100 deaths (83 is the record), and the death rate is about 1/10th that of NY.
Yeah, if we had had as many people get sick and die as NY did, then maybe now we would not be seeing a rise in cases either.
Of course not.
I am talking about the opening that started in May for all. It is a fact the NY opened in a phased manner in accordance with CDC guidelines, and Florida did not. And now much of NY is open yet new cases are at a minimum. This is not an accident, imo.
So NY followed CDC guidelines, and yet had a massive death toll. But that's not the reason they aren't seeing a resurgence now, it's because all those surviving people who are allegedly just as susceptible to infection as everyone in FL (according to Tomato Can) followed CDC guidelines in reopening. They fooled the virus!!
But the dummies in FL did not hide long enough to fool the virus, even though their infection rates were FAR below that of NY. The fact that NY has had more than double the rate of cases has nothing to do with it.
NY's stay at home order expired May 28; they had a seven day rolling average of over 1600 cases per day on May 28.
FL had a seven day rolling average of 660 cases per day on May 28. Almost 1000/day less than NY.
FL opened up in less populous counties starting May 4, when the rolling average was 680 (NY was 4200).
FL didn't have a general reopening until early June, and S. FL (about 25% of the state population) didn't open generally until after that even. I still have not eaten in a restaurant since early March.
CDC guidelines call for a 14 day downward trajectory of new cases. We had that from Apr 2 to Apr 24, then it flat lined around 700/day until May 29. It took a huge jump up from June 2 (617) to June 3 (1317), which was one week after George Floyd's death. But that was just a coincidence, of course. It's also just a coincidence that the new infections since early June were heavily in the younger age brackets. It had nothing to do with protests. It's definitely not that people in FL have had a much lower exposure rate than people in NY, either.
Ok, sorry for being sarcastic. It's friendly sarcasm, trust me. I'm tired.