OtherGround Forums Florida is doing it right

7/7/20 1:55 PM
7/15/02
Posts: 12017
Crazy Larry -
In Florida, 43 hospital ICU’s in 21 counties have hit capacity and show zero ICU beds available, according to data released by the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA). This includes hospitals in the following counties:
 
Miami-Dade (which includes the city of Miami)
Broward (which includes Fort Lauderdale)
Hillsborough (which includes Tampa)
Orange (which includes Orlando)
 
Another 32 hospitals show ICU bed availability of 10% or less, per the AHCA data.

And yet, people are still receiving ICU-level care for the reasons I’ve listed multiple times. 

7/7/20 1:58 PM
3/3/18
Posts: 292
Piyo -
Crazy Larry -
In Florida, 43 hospital ICU’s in 21 counties have hit capacity and show zero ICU beds available, according to data released by the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA). This includes hospitals in the following counties:
 
Miami-Dade (which includes the city of Miami)
Broward (which includes Fort Lauderdale)
Hillsborough (which includes Tampa)
Orange (which includes Orlando)
 
Another 32 hospitals show ICU bed availability of 10% or less, per the AHCA data.

And yet, people are still receiving ICU-level care for the reasons I’ve listed multiple times. 

Are more people going to be hospitalized than are released tomorrow? How about the day after that, and the day after that?

Edited: 7/7/20 2:47 PM
11/9/10
Posts: 71282

The lower the average age of positives the better. That means a much higher chance of recovery and we are effectively protecting the more vulnerable populations. The idea we can fully stop the virus by closing things down again is insane, we can’t. The number of people being tested now is exponentially higher than when things first started. Now everyone is getting tested symptomatic or not. Before you could only get tested if you had symptoms AND direct contact with a known positive person. The more testing is a good thing. But it’s also spreading fear. 
 

If you live with or regularly interact with vulnerable people then you should exercise extreme caution. Do everything possible to mitigate the risk to you and them. If not you should still exercise caution but going to work isn’t as concerning. 

7/7/20 2:44 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 99593
Crazy Larry - 
In Florida, 43 hospital ICU’s in 21 counties have hit capacity and show zero ICU beds available, according to data released by the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA). This includes hospitals in the following counties:
 
Miami-Dade (which includes the city of Miami)
Broward (which includes Fort Lauderdale)
Hillsborough (which includes Tampa)
Orange (which includes Orlando)
 
Another 32 hospitals show ICU bed availability of 10% or less, per the AHCA data.

Where are you getting that from?

I just looked at the FL ACHA data and it shows 3 counties with 0% ICU capacity, but all four of the ones you list have ICU capacity as of today.  

7/7/20 2:51 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 101363

I suspect that the less politically correct the demographical data is, the less the media will report on it. You bet your ass if half the pasty geezers in the Villages were keeling over, we'd be hearing about it non stop. 

7/7/20 2:52 PM
11/9/10
Posts: 71283
Trust -
Crazy Larry - 
In Florida, 43 hospital ICU’s in 21 counties have hit capacity and show zero ICU beds available, according to data released by the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA). This includes hospitals in the following counties:
 
Miami-Dade (which includes the city of Miami)
Broward (which includes Fort Lauderdale)
Hillsborough (which includes Tampa)
Orange (which includes Orlando)
 
Another 32 hospitals show ICU bed availability of 10% or less, per the AHCA data.

Where are you getting that from?

I just looked at the FL ACHA data and it shows 3 counties with 0% ICU capacity, but all four of the ones you list have ICU capacity as of today.  

Part of the reason ICU numbers are creeping back up to capacity is things that had been getting put off initially were being scheduled again. So as numbers go up and ICU space gets strained they stop scheduling those things and free up more space. And they have the ability to convert rooms if needed. That’s what the Orange County Mayor said the other day. 

7/7/20 2:54 PM
11/9/10
Posts: 71284
DaveFu -

I suspect that the less politically correct the demographical data is, the less the media will report on it. You bet your ass if half the pasty geezers in the Villages were keeling over, we'd be hearing about it non stop. 

The crazy part is with how fast STDs spread up there you’d think covid would be running rampant. 

7/7/20 2:54 PM
4/3/20
Posts: 1077
VinegarStrokes -

The lower the average age of positives the better. That means a much higher chance of recovery and we are effectively protecting the more vulnerable populations. The idea we can fully stop the virus by closing things down again is insane, we can’t. The number of people being tested now is exponentially higher than when things first started. Now everyone is getting tested symptomatic or not. Before you could only get tested if you had symptoms AND direct contact with a known positive person. The more testing is a good thing. But it’s also spreading fear. 
 

If you live with or regularly interact with vulnerable people then you should exercise extreme caution. Do everything possible to mitigate the risk to you and them. If not you should still exercise caution but going to work isn’t as concerning. 

no, that's not what this means. consider...if we increase the infection among 20 year olds by 10 times, and only double it among those 65+. the average age might go down, however all of the "bad" effects of COVID (hospitalizations and deaths) still occur. they aren't somehow canceled out just because lots and lots of young people have it and they will largely be fine.

 

this is what you are seeing in florida, and other states where the spread is not under control. focus on average age or death rate is just a game for those states to pat themselves on the back for having uncontrolled spread among the young. it is not an accomplishment.

Edited: 7/8/20 12:59 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 101365
VinegarStrokes - 
DaveFu -

I suspect that the less politically correct the demographical data is, the less the media will report on it. You bet your ass if half the pasty geezers in the Villages were keeling over, we'd be hearing about it non stop. 

The crazy part is with how fast STDs spread up there you’d think covid would be running rampant. 

 

Nah man they're pretty much on lock down. The usual 100's of people gathering every night at the "squares" isn't happening. Also its summer time, and the rich part-timers usually stay at home during the spring and summer. 

 

Also if they're retirees and staying home, they're not going out to work either. 

 

The population density and cultural communal living just isn't there and the numbers reflect it. Political season is making things more stupid up there than the WuFlu. 

 

7/7/20 3:03 PM
3/3/18
Posts: 293
Trust -
Crazy Larry - 
In Florida, 43 hospital ICU’s in 21 counties have hit capacity and show zero ICU beds available, according to data released by the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA). This includes hospitals in the following counties:
 
Miami-Dade (which includes the city of Miami)
Broward (which includes Fort Lauderdale)
Hillsborough (which includes Tampa)
Orange (which includes Orlando)
 
Another 32 hospitals show ICU bed availability of 10% or less, per the AHCA data.

Where are you getting that from?

I just looked at the FL ACHA data and it shows 3 counties with 0% ICU capacity, but all four of the ones you list have ICU capacity as of today.  

43 hospitals  including hospitals in those counties at capacity. Not "there are no icu beds left in these counties". 

7/7/20 3:14 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 99594
Ok, I see.

I'm putting this here for future reference, even through it does not want to load right now:

https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/HospitalBedsCounty?%3AshowAppBanner=false&%3Adisplay_count=n&%3AshowVizHome=n&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y
7/7/20 3:19 PM
1/7/09
Posts: 4775
Crazy Larry -
Trust -
Crazy Larry - 
TheDecider -

Good data Piyo.  I’ve been keeping an eye on the total deaths which continue to trend down.  
 

Keep the olds locked away and carry on.

Deaths are trending up in Florida. 


It is, slightly.  

The highest number of deaths in one day in FL is 83.  That was 4/28.   The most recent peak on July 3 was 68.  The peak 7 day rolling average was 51.  

For comparison, NY had a peak of 1,025 in one day, and a peak 7 day rolling average of 956.  

FL has about 22 million people, NY has about 19.5 million.  

"Deaths are still acceptably low" is an entirely differenta, and subjective, statement than "deaths are trending down", which is factually false. 

was referring to the national numbers so yes up slightly in FL.

7/7/20 3:28 PM
7/15/02
Posts: 12018
VirusHoax -
VinegarStrokes -

The lower the average age of positives the better. That means a much higher chance of recovery and we are effectively protecting the more vulnerable populations. The idea we can fully stop the virus by closing things down again is insane, we can’t. The number of people being tested now is exponentially higher than when things first started. Now everyone is getting tested symptomatic or not. Before you could only get tested if you had symptoms AND direct contact with a known positive person. The more testing is a good thing. But it’s also spreading fear. 
 

If you live with or regularly interact with vulnerable people then you should exercise extreme caution. Do everything possible to mitigate the risk to you and them. If not you should still exercise caution but going to work isn’t as concerning. 

no, that's not what this means. consider...if we increase the infection among 20 year olds by 10 times, and only double it among those 65+. the average age might go down, however all of the "bad" effects of COVID (hospitalizations and deaths) still occur. they aren't somehow canceled out just because lots and lots of young people have it and they will largely be fine.

 

this is what you are seeing in florida, and other states where the spread is not under control. focus on average age or death rate is just a game for those states to pat themselves on the back for having uncontrolled spread among the young. it is not an accomplishment.

And that is exactly what I said. It looks like the infection rate of those 65+ has approximately doubled, which is why I put about a 2x ceiling on the future mortality curve. It may be less if fewer of those 65+ are in care homes and/or treatment has improved.

But so what? Florida’s deaths have been so tiny so far that it’s not even showing up in excess mortality. Double a very small number is still very small. If they can open up the state, get people to work, kids back in school, etc., while keeping deaths at that level, that’s a win.

7/7/20 3:31 PM
7/15/02
Posts: 12019
Piyo -
VirusHoax -
VinegarStrokes -

The lower the average age of positives the better. That means a much higher chance of recovery and we are effectively protecting the more vulnerable populations. The idea we can fully stop the virus by closing things down again is insane, we can’t. The number of people being tested now is exponentially higher than when things first started. Now everyone is getting tested symptomatic or not. Before you could only get tested if you had symptoms AND direct contact with a known positive person. The more testing is a good thing. But it’s also spreading fear. 
 

If you live with or regularly interact with vulnerable people then you should exercise extreme caution. Do everything possible to mitigate the risk to you and them. If not you should still exercise caution but going to work isn’t as concerning. 

no, that's not what this means. consider...if we increase the infection among 20 year olds by 10 times, and only double it among those 65+. the average age might go down, however all of the "bad" effects of COVID (hospitalizations and deaths) still occur. they aren't somehow canceled out just because lots and lots of young people have it and they will largely be fine.

 

this is what you are seeing in florida, and other states where the spread is not under control. focus on average age or death rate is just a game for those states to pat themselves on the back for having uncontrolled spread among the young. it is not an accomplishment.

And that is exactly what I said. It looks like the infection rate of those 65+ has approximately doubled, which is why I put about a 2x ceiling on the future mortality curve. It may be less if fewer of those 65+ are in care homes and/or treatment has improved.

But so what? Florida’s deaths have been so tiny so far that it’s not even showing up in excess mortality. Double a very small number is still very small. If they can open up the state, get people to work, kids back in school, etc., while keeping deaths at that level, that’s a win.

And that’s not accounting for the long-term effect of lockdown fatigue. You think people are going to stop visiting their family in care homes for a year or more? Hell no. Eventually they’ll just say fuck it because being lonely is worse. 

7/7/20 3:40 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 12034

Florida hospital ICUs near Miami, Orlando and Tampa have hit capacity:

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-07-07-20-intl/h_87c00c35e3131060db9295ea95f5afcc

Yep, just keep that virus raging through the population. Best thing you can do. What could go wrong?
7/7/20 3:47 PM
4/3/20
Posts: 1078
Piyo -
VirusHoax -
VinegarStrokes -

The lower the average age of positives the better. That means a much higher chance of recovery and we are effectively protecting the more vulnerable populations. The idea we can fully stop the virus by closing things down again is insane, we can’t. The number of people being tested now is exponentially higher than when things first started. Now everyone is getting tested symptomatic or not. Before you could only get tested if you had symptoms AND direct contact with a known positive person. The more testing is a good thing. But it’s also spreading fear. 
 

If you live with or regularly interact with vulnerable people then you should exercise extreme caution. Do everything possible to mitigate the risk to you and them. If not you should still exercise caution but going to work isn’t as concerning. 

no, that's not what this means. consider...if we increase the infection among 20 year olds by 10 times, and only double it among those 65+. the average age might go down, however all of the "bad" effects of COVID (hospitalizations and deaths) still occur. they aren't somehow canceled out just because lots and lots of young people have it and they will largely be fine.

 

this is what you are seeing in florida, and other states where the spread is not under control. focus on average age or death rate is just a game for those states to pat themselves on the back for having uncontrolled spread among the young. it is not an accomplishment.

And that is exactly what I said. It looks like the infection rate of those 65+ has approximately doubled, which is why I put about a 2x ceiling on the future mortality curve. It may be less if fewer of those 65+ are in care homes and/or treatment has improved.

But so what? Florida’s deaths have been so tiny so far that it’s not even showing up in excess mortality. Double a very small number is still very small. If they can open up the state, get people to work, kids back in school, etc., while keeping deaths at that level, that’s a win.

except for the hospital situation getting worse with each week. right? that's the downside.

 

the framing of this as just the cost of opening up is fallacious. there really isn't much difference of what is open in florida and what is open in NY now (except indoor dining in NYC). the only major difference i can think of is gyms. yet, in ny with each phase of opening the rate of infection continued to go down.

7/7/20 4:15 PM
5/3/01
Posts: 29891
Piyo - 
EazyG -
Peixes -
Piyo - 
prof - Well, I will certainly take the view of the OP - one of the fine OG Scientists - over virtually all trained professionals.

Do you also do climate and economic forecasts, I hope?

LOL at virtually all trained professionals disagreeing. I have been correct on just about every prediction I’ve made in this thing. I predicted Japan would come out awesome when the NYT was predicting disaster. I was estimating a .3% population-weighted IFR for the US when morons like Fauci were still saying 1% or more. I said masks were incredibly effective from the very beginning, when the CDC, Fauci, the WHO, and the surgeon general were all letting the dumbest shit possible pour out their word holes.

Am I a genius epidemiologist? No. But I have a solid STEM background and read the counterpoints of a vast group of professional epidemiologists who were absolutely not fringe but weren’t following the clickbait mainstream. That group was internally consistent and better grounded in data than absolute fuckwits like Fauci, who as far as I can tell has never done anything of real substance. He’s just a peacetime general who was good at sucking enough dick to climb the political ladder.

I’m gonna be right again. We’ll see if you’ll admit it in two weeks when it’s undeniable. 


what, exactly, is your STEM background?

if you have one, you'll be able to readily and falsifiably cite your "vast group of professional epidemiologists" and exactly where they fall vs "the fringe" -- which you'll also define falsifiably.

given your attitude toward Fauci, it's obvious you either don't have a background in history or political science or you're willing to lie about principle issues that don't fit your preferred conclusion, which isn't very STEM-my of you, bro.

He has an emotional driven narrative that is, at best, orthogonal to the evidence 

Dont ruin it!

Orthogonal to evidence? What evidence are you talking about?

Even the CDC now says the best estimate IFR for people under 50 is .05%. For the median age of new cases in Florida, twenty-something, it’s gonna be even lower, pessimistically .006% or so.

Are you disagreeing with the CDC here?

You could argue you that it’s literally impossible to guard the aged while letting the virus spread among the young, but that runs counter to exactly what we’re seeing right now. Look at GA and CA, too. Even longer periods of case increase with no rise in deaths.

Please, show me some evidence I’m missing that isn’t the ranting of politicallt-minded pearl-clutchers on Twitter. 


indeed, what evidence ARE you talking about?

for instance, fauci led the united states' response to the aids crisis. he had to be an epidemiologist, virologist, statesman, and spokesperson. he won over dying populations, fearful reactionaries, and rolling administrations from both sides of the aisle in addition to general public sentiment.

i'd argue fauci has been in an unwinnable position given the administration's pressures  and non-compliance, but even if we agree for the sake of argument that he's utterly botched his responsibilites in the covid-19 response, you can't deny what he has accomplished or his general esteem in both medical and governmental circles -- the current administration and their followers notwithstanding.

i guess i'd be interested to see your professional epidemiologists who are somehow at once a minority consensus but also a vast group and outside the fringe. you're cutting these euler's circles pretty tight.

7/7/20 4:23 PM
6/22/03
Posts: 7410

Sigh... I was hoping for girls in bikinis.

7/7/20 4:44 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 99596
Trust - Ok, I see.

I'm putting this here for future reference, even through it does not want to load right now:

https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/HospitalBedsCounty?%3AshowAppBanner=false&%3Adisplay_count=n&%3AshowVizHome=n&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y

Ok, it's working now.  

It's mostly small hospital that are out of beds.  

Considering that they typically run at about 75% to 80% capacity without COVID, and that there is still ample places for people to go, not going to panic over it just yet.  

It's not like Hospitals are hundreds of miles apart.  I'm in central Broward and I can see three of the major hospitals from my office. 

7/7/20 4:50 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 99597
VirusHoax - 
Piyo -
VirusHoax -
VinegarStrokes -

The lower the average age of positives the better. That means a much higher chance of recovery and we are effectively protecting the more vulnerable populations. The idea we can fully stop the virus by closing things down again is insane, we can’t. The number of people being tested now is exponentially higher than when things first started. Now everyone is getting tested symptomatic or not. Before you could only get tested if you had symptoms AND direct contact with a known positive person. The more testing is a good thing. But it’s also spreading fear. 
 

If you live with or regularly interact with vulnerable people then you should exercise extreme caution. Do everything possible to mitigate the risk to you and them. If not you should still exercise caution but going to work isn’t as concerning. 

no, that's not what this means. consider...if we increase the infection among 20 year olds by 10 times, and only double it among those 65+. the average age might go down, however all of the "bad" effects of COVID (hospitalizations and deaths) still occur. they aren't somehow canceled out just because lots and lots of young people have it and they will largely be fine.

 

this is what you are seeing in florida, and other states where the spread is not under control. focus on average age or death rate is just a game for those states to pat themselves on the back for having uncontrolled spread among the young. it is not an accomplishment.

And that is exactly what I said. It looks like the infection rate of those 65+ has approximately doubled, which is why I put about a 2x ceiling on the future mortality curve. It may be less if fewer of those 65+ are in care homes and/or treatment has improved.

But so what? Florida’s deaths have been so tiny so far that it’s not even showing up in excess mortality. Double a very small number is still very small. If they can open up the state, get people to work, kids back in school, etc., while keeping deaths at that level, that’s a win.

except for the hospital situation getting worse with each week. right? that's the downside.

 

the framing of this as just the cost of opening up is fallacious. there really isn't much difference of what is open in florida and what is open in NY now (except indoor dining in NYC). the only major difference i can think of is gyms. yet, in ny with each phase of opening the rate of infection continued to go down.


Are you suggesting we will end up with a similar total number of deaths as NY has?  Right now FL has never had a day over 100 deaths (83 is the record), and the death rate is about 1/10th that of NY.  

Yeah, if we had had as many people get sick and die as NY did, then maybe now we would not be seeing a rise in cases either.  

7/7/20 4:58 PM
4/3/20
Posts: 1079
Trust -
VirusHoax - 
Piyo -
VirusHoax -
VinegarStrokes -

The lower the average age of positives the better. That means a much higher chance of recovery and we are effectively protecting the more vulnerable populations. The idea we can fully stop the virus by closing things down again is insane, we can’t. The number of people being tested now is exponentially higher than when things first started. Now everyone is getting tested symptomatic or not. Before you could only get tested if you had symptoms AND direct contact with a known positive person. The more testing is a good thing. But it’s also spreading fear. 
 

If you live with or regularly interact with vulnerable people then you should exercise extreme caution. Do everything possible to mitigate the risk to you and them. If not you should still exercise caution but going to work isn’t as concerning. 

no, that's not what this means. consider...if we increase the infection among 20 year olds by 10 times, and only double it among those 65+. the average age might go down, however all of the "bad" effects of COVID (hospitalizations and deaths) still occur. they aren't somehow canceled out just because lots and lots of young people have it and they will largely be fine.

 

this is what you are seeing in florida, and other states where the spread is not under control. focus on average age or death rate is just a game for those states to pat themselves on the back for having uncontrolled spread among the young. it is not an accomplishment.

And that is exactly what I said. It looks like the infection rate of those 65+ has approximately doubled, which is why I put about a 2x ceiling on the future mortality curve. It may be less if fewer of those 65+ are in care homes and/or treatment has improved.

But so what? Florida’s deaths have been so tiny so far that it’s not even showing up in excess mortality. Double a very small number is still very small. If they can open up the state, get people to work, kids back in school, etc., while keeping deaths at that level, that’s a win.

except for the hospital situation getting worse with each week. right? that's the downside.

 

the framing of this as just the cost of opening up is fallacious. there really isn't much difference of what is open in florida and what is open in NY now (except indoor dining in NYC). the only major difference i can think of is gyms. yet, in ny with each phase of opening the rate of infection continued to go down.


Are you suggesting we will end up with a similar total number of deaths as NY has?  Right now FL has never had a day over 100 deaths (83 is the record), and the death rate is about 1/10th that of NY.  

Yeah, if we had had as many people get sick and die as NY did, then maybe now we would not be seeing a rise in cases either.  

Of course not. 
 

I am talking about the opening that started in May for all. It is a fact the NY opened in a phased manner in accordance with CDC guidelines, and Florida did not. And now much of NY is open yet new cases are at a minimum. This is not an accident, imo.

7/7/20 5:01 PM
5/8/11
Posts: 6535

I wonder how many of these icu cases are panic attacks?

7/7/20 5:10 PM
7/15/02
Posts: 12020
VirusHoax -
Piyo -
VirusHoax -
VinegarStrokes -

The lower the average age of positives the better. That means a much higher chance of recovery and we are effectively protecting the more vulnerable populations. The idea we can fully stop the virus by closing things down again is insane, we can’t. The number of people being tested now is exponentially higher than when things first started. Now everyone is getting tested symptomatic or not. Before you could only get tested if you had symptoms AND direct contact with a known positive person. The more testing is a good thing. But it’s also spreading fear. 
 

If you live with or regularly interact with vulnerable people then you should exercise extreme caution. Do everything possible to mitigate the risk to you and them. If not you should still exercise caution but going to work isn’t as concerning. 

no, that's not what this means. consider...if we increase the infection among 20 year olds by 10 times, and only double it among those 65+. the average age might go down, however all of the "bad" effects of COVID (hospitalizations and deaths) still occur. they aren't somehow canceled out just because lots and lots of young people have it and they will largely be fine.

 

this is what you are seeing in florida, and other states where the spread is not under control. focus on average age or death rate is just a game for those states to pat themselves on the back for having uncontrolled spread among the young. it is not an accomplishment.

And that is exactly what I said. It looks like the infection rate of those 65+ has approximately doubled, which is why I put about a 2x ceiling on the future mortality curve. It may be less if fewer of those 65+ are in care homes and/or treatment has improved.

But so what? Florida’s deaths have been so tiny so far that it’s not even showing up in excess mortality. Double a very small number is still very small. If they can open up the state, get people to work, kids back in school, etc., while keeping deaths at that level, that’s a win.

except for the hospital situation getting worse with each week. right? that's the downside.

 

the framing of this as just the cost of opening up is fallacious. there really isn't much difference of what is open in florida and what is open in NY now (except indoor dining in NYC). the only major difference i can think of is gyms. yet, in ny with each phase of opening the rate of infection continued to go down.

That remains to be seen. I don’t think it will become unmanageable at all.

Florida is absolutely more open than NY right now, but importantly, what is going on in NYC is irrelevant. Probably 40% or more of the people in NYC are now immune. That radically lowers the ceiling on R so that surges like they saw before are no longer possible.

7/7/20 6:44 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 99600
VirusHoax - 
Trust -
VirusHoax - 
Piyo -
VirusHoax -
VinegarStrokes -

The lower the average age of positives the better. That means a much higher chance of recovery and we are effectively protecting the more vulnerable populations. The idea we can fully stop the virus by closing things down again is insane, we can’t. The number of people being tested now is exponentially higher than when things first started. Now everyone is getting tested symptomatic or not. Before you could only get tested if you had symptoms AND direct contact with a known positive person. The more testing is a good thing. But it’s also spreading fear. 
 

If you live with or regularly interact with vulnerable people then you should exercise extreme caution. Do everything possible to mitigate the risk to you and them. If not you should still exercise caution but going to work isn’t as concerning. 

no, that's not what this means. consider...if we increase the infection among 20 year olds by 10 times, and only double it among those 65+. the average age might go down, however all of the "bad" effects of COVID (hospitalizations and deaths) still occur. they aren't somehow canceled out just because lots and lots of young people have it and they will largely be fine.

 

this is what you are seeing in florida, and other states where the spread is not under control. focus on average age or death rate is just a game for those states to pat themselves on the back for having uncontrolled spread among the young. it is not an accomplishment.

And that is exactly what I said. It looks like the infection rate of those 65+ has approximately doubled, which is why I put about a 2x ceiling on the future mortality curve. It may be less if fewer of those 65+ are in care homes and/or treatment has improved.

But so what? Florida’s deaths have been so tiny so far that it’s not even showing up in excess mortality. Double a very small number is still very small. If they can open up the state, get people to work, kids back in school, etc., while keeping deaths at that level, that’s a win.

except for the hospital situation getting worse with each week. right? that's the downside.

 

the framing of this as just the cost of opening up is fallacious. there really isn't much difference of what is open in florida and what is open in NY now (except indoor dining in NYC). the only major difference i can think of is gyms. yet, in ny with each phase of opening the rate of infection continued to go down.


Are you suggesting we will end up with a similar total number of deaths as NY has?  Right now FL has never had a day over 100 deaths (83 is the record), and the death rate is about 1/10th that of NY.  

Yeah, if we had had as many people get sick and die as NY did, then maybe now we would not be seeing a rise in cases either.  

Of course not. 
 

I am talking about the opening that started in May for all. It is a fact the NY opened in a phased manner in accordance with CDC guidelines, and Florida did not. And now much of NY is open yet new cases are at a minimum. This is not an accident, imo.


So NY followed CDC guidelines, and yet had a massive death toll.  But that's not the reason they aren't seeing a resurgence now, it's because all those surviving people who are allegedly just as susceptible to infection as everyone in FL (according to Tomato Can) followed CDC guidelines in reopening.  They fooled the virus!!   

But the dummies in FL did not hide long enough to fool the virus, even though their infection rates were FAR below that of NY.  The fact that NY has had more than double the rate of cases has nothing to do with it.  

NY's stay at home order expired May 28; they had a seven day rolling average of over 1600 cases per day on May 28.  

FL had a seven day rolling average of 660 cases per day on May 28.  Almost 1000/day less than NY. 

FL opened up in less populous counties starting May 4, when the rolling average was 680 (NY was 4200).    

FL didn't have a general reopening until early June, and S. FL (about 25% of the state population) didn't open generally until after that even. I still have not eaten in a restaurant since early March.  

CDC guidelines call for a 14 day downward trajectory of new cases.  We had that from Apr 2 to Apr 24, then it flat lined around 700/day until May 29.  It took a huge jump up from June 2 (617) to June 3 (1317), which was one week after George Floyd's death.  But that was just a coincidence, of course. It's also just a coincidence that the new infections since early June were heavily in the younger age brackets.  It had nothing to do with protests.  It's definitely not that people in FL have had a much lower exposure rate than people in NY, either. 

Ok, sorry for being sarcastic. It's friendly sarcasm, trust me. I'm tired. 

 

7/7/20 6:53 PM
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The lower the average age of positives the better. That means a much higher chance of recovery and we are effectively protecting the more vulnerable populations. The idea we can fully stop the virus by closing things down again is insane, we can’t. The number of people being tested now is exponentially higher than when things first started. Now everyone is getting tested symptomatic or not. Before you could only get tested if you had symptoms AND direct contact with a known positive person. The more testing is a good thing. But it’s also spreading fear. 
 

If you live with or regularly interact with vulnerable people then you should exercise extreme caution. Do everything possible to mitigate the risk to you and them. If not you should still exercise caution but going to work isn’t as concerning. 

no, that's not what this means. consider...if we increase the infection among 20 year olds by 10 times, and only double it among those 65+. the average age might go down, however all of the "bad" effects of COVID (hospitalizations and deaths) still occur. they aren't somehow canceled out just because lots and lots of young people have it and they will largely be fine.

 

this is what you are seeing in florida, and other states where the spread is not under control. focus on average age or death rate is just a game for those states to pat themselves on the back for having uncontrolled spread among the young. it is not an accomplishment.

And that is exactly what I said. It looks like the infection rate of those 65+ has approximately doubled, which is why I put about a 2x ceiling on the future mortality curve. It may be less if fewer of those 65+ are in care homes and/or treatment has improved.

But so what? Florida’s deaths have been so tiny so far that it’s not even showing up in excess mortality. Double a very small number is still very small. If they can open up the state, get people to work, kids back in school, etc., while keeping deaths at that level, that’s a win.

except for the hospital situation getting worse with each week. right? that's the downside.

 

the framing of this as just the cost of opening up is fallacious. there really isn't much difference of what is open in florida and what is open in NY now (except indoor dining in NYC). the only major difference i can think of is gyms. yet, in ny with each phase of opening the rate of infection continued to go down.


Are you suggesting we will end up with a similar total number of deaths as NY has?  Right now FL has never had a day over 100 deaths (83 is the record), and the death rate is about 1/10th that of NY.  

Yeah, if we had had as many people get sick and die as NY did, then maybe now we would not be seeing a rise in cases either.  

Of course not. 
 

I am talking about the opening that started in May for all. It is a fact the NY opened in a phased manner in accordance with CDC guidelines, and Florida did not. And now much of NY is open yet new cases are at a minimum. This is not an accident, imo.

NY cases are at a minimum because a huge fraction of NYC is immune!