Piyo -VirusHoax -Piyo -VirusHoax -VinegarStrokes -
The lower the average age of positives the better. That means a much higher chance of recovery and we are effectively protecting the more vulnerable populations. The idea we can fully stop the virus by closing things down again is insane, we can’t. The number of people being tested now is exponentially higher than when things first started. Now everyone is getting tested symptomatic or not. Before you could only get tested if you had symptoms AND direct contact with a known positive person. The more testing is a good thing. But it’s also spreading fear.
If you live with or regularly interact with vulnerable people then you should exercise extreme caution. Do everything possible to mitigate the risk to you and them. If not you should still exercise caution but going to work isn’t as concerning.
no, that's not what this means. consider...if we increase the infection among 20 year olds by 10 times, and only double it among those 65+. the average age might go down, however all of the "bad" effects of COVID (hospitalizations and deaths) still occur. they aren't somehow canceled out just because lots and lots of young people have it and they will largely be fine.
this is what you are seeing in florida, and other states where the spread is not under control. focus on average age or death rate is just a game for those states to pat themselves on the back for having uncontrolled spread among the young. it is not an accomplishment.
And that is exactly what I said. It looks like the infection rate of those 65+ has approximately doubled, which is why I put about a 2x ceiling on the future mortality curve. It may be less if fewer of those 65+ are in care homes and/or treatment has improved.
But so what? Florida’s deaths have been so tiny so far that it’s not even showing up in excess mortality. Double a very small number is still very small. If they can open up the state, get people to work, kids back in school, etc., while keeping deaths at that level, that’s a win.
except for the hospital situation getting worse with each week. right? that's the downside.
the framing of this as just the cost of opening up is fallacious. there really isn't much difference of what is open in florida and what is open in NY now (except indoor dining in NYC). the only major difference i can think of is gyms. yet, in ny with each phase of opening the rate of infection continued to go down.
That remains to be seen. I don’t think it will become unmanageable at all.
Florida is absolutely more open than NY right now, but importantly, what is going on in NYC is irrelevant. Probably 40% or more of the people in NYC are now immune. That radically lowers the ceiling on R so that surges like they saw before are no longer possible.
Malls, I forgot about malls. In the rest of the state indoor dining, bars, elective procedures in all hospitals, recreation, etc all open.
And, no, the number in NYC is not “probably” 40%, lol. Low 20s when measured. There certainly has not been double the infections since then. Because they have been very careful about limiting the spread, which has been evident in the hospitalization and death curve.
can you define what would be unmanageable?