OtherGround Forums Florida is doing it right

6/30/20 11:37 AM
7/15/02
Posts: 11968

I’m not saying it’s *impossible* that vulnerable people won’t start getting it in the future, if they change their behaviors or if nursing home restrictions are relaxed, but for now FL isn’t doing anything wrong. Lots of young people getting CV is exactly what you want. 

6/30/20 11:38 AM
7/15/02
Posts: 11969


6/30/20 12:17 PM
8/29/09
Posts: 18243

That is an excellent graph, as well as excellent results.

 

Is this graph available for all states?

Edited: 7/9/20 4:32 PM
7/15/02
Posts: 11971
Bad Monkey -

That is an excellent graph, as well as excellent results.

 

Is this graph available for all states?

Not that I can find. Florida and Minnesota seem to have good data.

If you squint, you can see they’re getting a few more cases in the old category, maybe 2x. It’ll probably depend on how many of those are in care homes or not, but I think 2x is a good estimate of the future shift in the death curve, which is pretty acceptable IMO.

I think FL will show very few, if any,  excess deaths for 2020 when it’s all over. 

7/3/20 5:43 PM
7/15/02
Posts: 11981


Cases over last 7 days by age
7/3/20 7:36 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 99557

Still ample hospital bed availability in FL, regular and ICU.

7/3/20 7:54 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 29195
Trust - 

Still ample hospital bed availability in FL, regular and ICU.


That's racist...
7/3/20 8:28 PM
4/24/07
Posts: 42799
Piyo - 



Wow what happened towards the end of May that a couple weeks later would cause so many young people to get it.
7/3/20 9:02 PM
7/7/10
Posts: 19853

I was reading most having very mild symptoms 

7/6/20 7:22 PM
7/15/02
Posts: 12002
David@accu -
Piyo - 



Wow what happened towards the end of May that a couple weeks later would cause so many young people to get it.

Are you asking about protests? I think most of the protesters are dumb, but I actually don’t think it had much of an effect. I’m just being consistent. I have never thought outdoor transmission was a significant driver. Beaches, playgrounds, etc should be wide open for the same reason.

I think the spike was caused by reopening in combination with young people correctly assessing the virus poses a trivial risk to them and acting accordingly. For the vast majority of people catching it now, their daily commute poses a greater mortality risk. 

7/6/20 7:23 PM
7/15/02
Posts: 12003

Florida marches onward with a still unremarkable number of deaths. Pearl clutching continues in lefty news rooms around the country.

Just two more weeks!

Edited: 7/6/20 7:25 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 12027

Well, I will certainly take the view of the OP - one of the fine OG Scientists - over virtually all trained professionals.

Do you also do climate and economic forecasts, I hope?

7/6/20 7:27 PM
3/28/02
Posts: 8564
prof -

Well, I will certainly take the view of the OP - one of the fine OG Scientists - over virtually all trained professionals.

Do you also do climate and economic forecasts, I hope?

Great post

gotta love the self appointed experts on everything here

Edited: 7/6/20 8:05 PM
7/15/02
Posts: 12004
prof - Well, I will certainly take the view of the OP - one of the fine OG Scientists - over virtually all trained professionals.

Do you also do climate and economic forecasts, I hope?

LOL at virtually all trained professionals disagreeing. I have been correct on just about every prediction I’ve made in this thing. I predicted Japan would come out awesome when the NYT was predicting disaster. I was estimating a .3% population-weighted IFR for the US when morons like Fauci were still saying 1% or more. I said masks were incredibly effective from the very beginning, when the CDC, Fauci, the WHO, and the surgeon general were all letting the dumbest shit possible pour out their word holes.

Am I a genius epidemiologist? No. But I have a solid STEM background and read the counterpoints of a vast group of professional epidemiologists who were absolutely not fringe but weren’t following the clickbait mainstream. That group was internally consistent and better grounded in data than absolute fuckwits like Fauci, who as far as I can tell has never done anything of real substance. He’s just a peacetime general who was good at sucking enough dick to climb the political ladder.

I’m gonna be right again. We’ll see if you’ll admit it in two weeks when it’s undeniable. 

7/6/20 8:05 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 12029

" Lots of young people getting CV is exactly what you want. "



Yep. Let the virus run through the young people. Make sure you tell them all it will be a walk in the park, and that Florida's youth will be magically excepted from horrible scenarios like this:

7/6/20 8:10 PM
7/15/02
Posts: 12005
prof -
" Lots of young people getting CV is exactly what you want. "



Yep. Let the virus run through the young people. Make sure you tell them all it will be a walk in the park, and that Florida's youth will be magically excepted from horrible scenarios like this:

Yup. That’s a great data point for people who want to reason from unsubstantiated, hyperbolic anecdote. Or you could rely on the vast mountain of data that shows the IFR for those under 40/50 is on the order of .001% or less in literally every place it has appeared. 

Edited: 7/6/20 8:21 PM
4/13/12
Posts: 35635
Piyo -
prof -
" Lots of young people getting CV is exactly what you want. "



Yep. Let the virus run through the young people. Make sure you tell them all it will be a walk in the park, and that Florida's youth will be magically excepted from horrible scenarios like this:

Yup. That’s a great data point for people who want to reason from unsubstantiated, hyperbolic anecdote. Or you could rely on the vast mountain of data that shows the IFR for those under 40/50 is on the order of .001% or less in literally every place it has appeared. 

considering the median age of the US is about 39 and that half of the country is 40 or older, that's not exactly good news.

7/6/20 8:23 PM
8/13/09
Posts: 20262

Miami just shut down restaurants (back to carry out/delivery only) and gyms starting Wednesday. I assume Broward and Palm Beach will follow suit since they do whatever Carlos Castro does.

7/6/20 8:26 PM
7/15/02
Posts: 12006
EFM -
Piyo -
prof -
" Lots of young people getting CV is exactly what you want. "



Yep. Let the virus run through the young people. Make sure you tell them all it will be a walk in the park, and that Florida's youth will be magically excepted from horrible scenarios like this:

Yup. That’s a great data point for people who want to reason from unsubstantiated, hyperbolic anecdote. Or you could rely on the vast mountain of data that shows the IFR for those under 40/50 is on the order of .001% or less in literally every place it has appeared. 

considering the median age of the US is about 39 and that half of the country is 40 or older, that's not exactly good news.

That’s the kind of innumerate stupidity that rules the day. Good job. 

7/6/20 8:27 PM
7/15/02
Posts: 12007
John Dougherty -

Miami just shut down restaurants (back to carry out/delivery only) and gyms starting Wednesday. I assume Broward and Palm Beach will follow suit since they do whatever Carlos Castro does.

Lots of blue tribe pearl-clutchers there so no surprise. 

7/6/20 9:03 PM
4/26/03
Posts: 30029
David@accu -
Piyo - 



Wow what happened towards the end of May that a couple weeks later would cause so many young people to get it.

Definitely NOT riots or protests. Everyone knows that's NOT what happened. Even suggesting this, because it's NOT what happened, is racist. 

7/6/20 9:41 PM
11/24/09
Posts: 2472
prof -
" Lots of young people getting CV is exactly what you want. "



Yep. Let the virus run through the young people. Make sure you tell them all it will be a walk in the park, and that Florida's youth will be magically excepted from horrible scenarios like this:

i like how the headline says overwelmed and you can see 3 workers doing fuck all in the backround 

7/6/20 9:46 PM
4/24/07
Posts: 42855
Piyo - 
David@accu -
Piyo - 



Wow what happened towards the end of May that a couple weeks later would cause so many young people to get it.

Are you asking about protests? I think most of the protesters are dumb, but I actually don’t think it had much of an effect. I’m just being consistent. I have never thought outdoor transmission was a significant driver. Beaches, playgrounds, etc should be wide open for the same reason.

I think the spike was caused by reopening in combination with young people correctly assessing the virus poses a trivial risk to them and acting accordingly. For the vast majority of people catching it now, their daily commute poses a greater mortality risk. 


I wasn't being serious. The question was in jest

It's fine to be consistent but it does sort of ignore everything we know about highly communicable contagious viruses and how they spread. Granted, I'm sure being outside offers some barrier but because the wind is blowing say the guy next to you sneezes and has it. Sure it missed you but what about all the people behind him?

You're still making the same argument as me. More people in a given area = more problems. This is the same logic we have used for centuries in terms of viruses and disease. It shouldn't suddenly change for this.
Edited: 7/6/20 10:06 PM
11/9/10
Posts: 71263
prof -
" Lots of young people getting CV is exactly what you want. "



Yep. Let the virus run through the young people. Make sure you tell them all it will be a walk in the park, and that Florida's youth will be magically excepted from horrible scenarios like this:

There is no stopping a highly contagious virus short of herd immunity. That means a viable vaccine or a significant portion of people recover from it or both. We can pretend all day that it’s terrible that it’s spreading through healthier populations, but that doesn’t make it true. 

7/6/20 10:11 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 101285

Florida's Covid results are just as asymmetrical as almost everyone else's. 

It takes 12 hours to drive from Key West to Pensacola, probably 8 if you had a good radar detector. Florida will not be confused with Rhode Island anytime soon.