OtherGround Forums Hezbollah getting precision guided missiles:Uh Oh

8/31/19 11:10 AM
6/13/09
Posts: 15332

Iran has started converting 100,000 unguided rockets into precision guided missiles with GPS systems for Hizbollah's future use against Israel. 

It will be as simple as programming an address in Israel, such as the Knesset or a busy Tel Aviv location.  and firing the missile. 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/30/middleeast/israel-lebanon-tensions-intl/index.html

from the article:

Another video (of top Iranian officers) says that Hezbollah could soon have the capability to fly a missile onto an Israeli address as simply as if it was using the popular Waze navigation app. The propaganda clip even uses an animation of the app itself to drive its point home. Ironically, the video doesn't note that Waze was invented by an Israeli company.

This seems like a near existential threat to Israel's existence.

What should the Israelis do?

Edited: 8/31/19 11:23 AM
6/13/09
Posts: 15333

I don't think Israel can let this happen. But it seems like it might take a full-scale war with Hezbollah to stop it...and a war Iran might get involved in.

It is one thing to be surrounded by a bunch of countries that want to exterminate you.

It's another thing when they acquire weapons that might be able to do that.

8/31/19 11:20 AM
6/13/09
Posts: 15334

I've been predicting a war over there for a while.

This may be the factor that touches one off.

8/31/19 11:29 AM
5/10/08
Posts: 47279

I already predicted that if this were to ever happen... it would be the end of modern day Israel as we know it.

If it ever happened (i.e. a guided missile into a big building in Tel Aviv), would be anarchy in the region.

Israel would have no choice but to annihilate southern Lebananon and Hezbollah would respond in kind.

That said, Hezbollah have been shown to be rational actors at times.  They are no longer just a fringe terrorist group now.  They are a political movement with real power and influence in Lebanon.

Any color on whether Israeli missile defense systems would be able to pick these up or is the altitude low enough (given the short distance) to be impossible to stop?

8/31/19 11:32 AM
5/10/08
Posts: 47280

^^^^ Would also likely begin a broader war with Iran where we (the USA) would bomb the shit out of military targets in Tehran...

Sounds like a nightmare scenario...

8/31/19 11:37 AM
6/13/09
Posts: 15335
lionsoul - 

I already predicted that if this were to ever happen... it would be the end of modern day Israel as we know it.

If it ever happened (i.e. a guided missile into a big building in Tel Aviv), would be anarchy in the region.

Israel would have no choice but to annihilate southern Lebananon and Hezbollah would respond in kind.

That said, Hezbollah have been shown to be rational actors at times.  They are no longer just a fringe terrorist group now.  They are a political movement with real power and influence in Lebanon.

Any color on whether Israeli missile defense systems would be able to pick these up or is the altitude low enough (given the short distance) to be impossible to stop?


I remember that prediction by you lionsoul. It appears you are dead on correct.

I also agree with you that if guided missiles started scoring direct hits in Israel, that there would be no choice but to bomb them into Bolivian -- in a non-nuclear way.

I don't think Israel can allow these guided missiles to become operative. Even if not used immediately, it would given Hezbollah AND Iran an extremely powerful card to play in the region.

Edited: 8/31/19 11:46 AM
6/13/09
Posts: 15336
lionsoul - 

^^^^ Would also likely begin a broader war with Iran where we (the USA) would bomb the shit out of military targets in Tehran...

Sounds like a nightmare scenario...

 

....and a scenario that is starting now.

 

It may not take Iran that long to install the guided missiles, and they won't need 100,000 missiles if they can score direct hits with each one.

To answer your question about Israel missile defense systems: I seriously doubt they could stop all or even most of the Hezbollah missiles from getting through. And how many Hezbollah direct hits would it take to totally fuck up Israel? Not very many.

 

 

 

8/31/19 11:42 AM
6/13/09
Posts: 15337
lionsoul - 

^^^^ Would also likely begin a broader war with Iran where we (the USA) would bomb the shit out of military targets in Tehran...

Sounds like a nightmare scenario...


 I would love for us to stay out of it even if Iran gets drawn in. But short of using nukes, I'm not sure Israel can handle Hezbollah and Iran at the same time.

8/31/19 11:46 AM
12/28/04
Posts: 30983
blood fist - 
lionsoul - 

^^^^ Would also likely begin a broader war with Iran where we (the USA) would bomb the shit out of military targets in Tehran...

Sounds like a nightmare scenario...


 I would love for us to stay out of it even if Iran gets drawn in. But short of using nukes, I'm not sure Israel can handle Hezbollah and Iran at the same time.


Best think to do TBH. There will never be peace in that area while the west interfears, let them sort it out and to the winner the spoils. Its a harsh but true fact that pretty much every stable region is born that way. 

8/31/19 11:50 AM
6/13/09
Posts: 15338
BrocksSwockRanTrane_onShane - 
blood fist - 
lionsoul - 

^^^^ Would also likely begin a broader war with Iran where we (the USA) would bomb the shit out of military targets in Tehran...

Sounds like a nightmare scenario...


 I would love for us to stay out of it even if Iran gets drawn in. But short of using nukes, I'm not sure Israel can handle Hezbollah and Iran at the same time.


Best think to do TBH. There will never be peace in that area while the west interfears, let them sort it out and to the winner the spoils. Its a harsh but true fact that pretty much every stable region is born that way. 


 But if we don't stay involved over there, it's possible a nuclear war could start which would have an enormous impact on us.

 

Edited: 8/31/19 12:04 PM
6/13/09
Posts: 15339

Perhaps the best thing would be if Israel told Iran, right now, that setting up those precision missiles will not be tolerated. I'm not sure where those negotiation would lead. But as Winston Churchill liked to say, "jaw jaw is better than war war."

Sort of like when we told the Russians to get their missiles out of Cuba.

 

8/31/19 2:11 PM
6/13/09
Posts: 15341

With all the other shit going on in the world today, I think this new 'missile crisis' could be a quickly evolving crisis that not many people are watching.

You also know the Russians will quickly be involved on behalf of their ally Iran to provide them with a nuclear umbrella against Israel. It's hard to not see that jumping from a regional to a global crisis in no time, with us having to get involved.

I guess we'll see how it plays out.  

 

 

 

 

Edited: 8/31/19 2:50 PM
4/6/12
Posts: 9884

In

8/31/19 2:59 PM
6/13/09
Posts: 15342

I hope this Fizzles out into nothing. I just don't see how it can when the Iranians and Hezbollah are setting up these missiles now.

8/31/19 3:10 PM
6/20/13
Posts: 9777
blood fist -

Perhaps the best thing would be if Israel told Iran, right now, that setting up those precision missiles will not be tolerated. I'm not sure where those negotiation would lead. But as Winston Churchill liked to say, "jaw jaw is better than war war."

Sort of like when we told the Russians to get their missiles out of Cuba.

 

That is a Harold Macmillan quote.

8/31/19 3:52 PM
2/24/19
Posts: 322

"The US should just bomb the crap out of Iran and all their allies and take all the oil." - My next door neighbor's opinion. Then he added "And a few of them Harem girls too! ... you know, Iike Jeannie." LOL. 

8/31/19 3:56 PM
2/13/16
Posts: 5070
blood fist -

I hope this Fizzles out into nothing. I just don't see how it can when the Iranians and Hezbollah are setting up these missiles now.

This.

 

i HOPE it's nothing...

 

but, the entire world would be a better place if the Middle East was turned to glass and Islam was gone from the world.  Sad but true.  There's no way Israel survives this without going nuclear or without getting the US involved.

8/31/19 3:58 PM
6/5/03
Posts: 23273

That's one way to solve the Palestinian problem. 

8/31/19 4:08 PM
7/31/09
Posts: 19087

So they're think Israel will sit there taking guided missile pot shots and not do anything? Shit will hit the fan for sure .

8/31/19 4:13 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 15045

This talk has been going on for generations, no reason this ia anything  but another BS story.  Israel's neighbors know what will happen if they do anything like this.  They claim it's a rocks vs guns conflict to gain sympathy, if they launch real missiles they'll pay the price.  

8/31/19 6:15 PM
6/13/09
Posts: 15343
Sonester Sambo - 

We d have to get involved. Too many zionist on both sides. Unfortunate 


Yeah, fuck those Israelis. Who the hell are they to want to live?

8/31/19 6:29 PM
6/13/09
Posts: 15344
Looney Ronulan Paultard - 
blood fist -

Perhaps the best thing would be if Israel told Iran, right now, that setting up those precision missiles will not be tolerated. I'm not sure where those negotiation would lead. But as Winston Churchill liked to say, "jaw jaw is better than war war."

Sort of like when we told the Russians to get their missiles out of Cuba.

 

That is a Harold Macmillan quote.


Not exactly, young man. He basically stole it from Churchill.

Here's what happened:

https://winstonchurchill.org/resources/quotes/quotes-falsely-attributed/


'Jaw, jaw and war, war Jaw, jaw is better than war, war.'  Churchill, 1954, Washington. (Finest Hour 122, 15.)

Winston Churchill's official biographer, Sir Martin Gilbert, speaking of this quote, noted that Churchill actually said, 'Meeting jaw to jaw is better than war.' Four years later, during a visit to Australia, Harold Macmillan said the words usually--and wrongly--attributed to Churchill: "Jaw, jaw is better than war, war." Credit: Harold Macmillan.
 
^ So while MacMillan may have uttered the exact words, it was Churchill who said almost the exact same thing...years earlier. MacMillan essentially stole it from.
 
Nice try though.
 
 
 
 
8/31/19 6:49 PM
6/13/09
Posts: 15345
Kings21 - 

So they're think Israel will sit there taking guided missile pot shots and not do anything? Shit will hit the fan for sure .


Of course Israel will react. Sadly though if it gets to that point, Israel will have already lost.

They have to stop this shit before those GPS missiles start flying. 

I think they have to do something soon. Once those poor man's cruise missiles that can hit a postage stamp start flying, Israel is in trouble. Or even if they don't start flying, it seems it would pretty much eliminate the strategic edge Israel had and have tremendous political implications.. And it would put Iran/Hezbollah in control, or at least having influence, in a large part of the middle east.

I',m not sure what they should do. They have some smart people over there. Hopefully they will figure something out.

Israel tolerated having 100,000 unguided rockets aimed at its cities. But it can't afford to tolerate even one thousand of these precision guided missiles. If I was Israeli PM (and there are probably those on here who think I may be), I would do something. I don't think any sanctions are going to slow this down either. It might take more than that.

 

 

Edited: 8/31/19 7:10 PM
6/13/09
Posts: 15346
cruedi - 

This talk has been going on for generations, no reason this ia anything  but another BS story.  Israel's neighbors know what will happen if they do anything like this.  They claim it's a rocks vs guns conflict to gain sympathy, if they launch real missiles they'll pay the price.  

 

Man, I wish it was that simple cruedi. Sometimes technological changes can have profound impacts.

 

If Hezbollah has thousands of these new cheap highly accurate missiles, it changes the whole equation.

Israel won't be able to take that first hit anymore...because now it would be a knockout punch.

 

"if they launch real missiles they'll pay the price"

^ Yes, Hezbollah would pay the price. They'd probably get wiped out., but they could take the achieve ultimate martyrdom by also effectively destroying the State of Israel with a weapons systems the Israelis can't stop.

8/31/19 7:10 PM
10/16/10
Posts: 28407

^ How many can Israel's iron dome handle?