OtherGround Forums OG doc. AMA on COVID-19

3/16/20 1:47 PM
10/23/05
Posts: 2936
In Limbo - 
NoNeed4aScreenName - 
The_Pundits_Ghost -

Just saw this online. Im guessing you would agree with this statement?

 

View this post on Instagram

I received the following text from an ER doctor in NYC this morning. It underscores how bad things might get and how important it is to isolate now, if possible. Here's the text: “Please spread the word to all of your nyc friends that this situation is sooooo bad!!!! Testing is frighteningly inadequate. While I do think our hospital system is doing the best it can and even doing in house testing now, they can still only do 180 tests/day, so we can only test people who are getting admitted to the hospital and sick healthcare workers. No one is testing sick people in the community!!! And we are seeing tons of them and turning them away. It is truly frightening. The life threatening lung issues are most common in the 2nd week of illness, so I think it’s going to get really bad in a week. My colleagues and I are all getting really scared and feel that the city is unprepared. Anyway, please don’t use my name or hospital affiliation, but I would definitely spread the word that everyone needs to be isolating themselves as much as possible. This may be obvious at this point, but I felt it my duty to warn people.”

A post shared by Tim Ferriss (@timferriss) on

Theres also some fear mongering going in the same manner as the old email forwards. 

 

SIft through the disinformation


i personally spoke with Drs. and Nurses that work in some of NYC's most well known, public hospitals

..Bellevue Hospital (the flagship hospital of NYC....LAw & Order SVU always has seens there and about Bellevue hospital) emergency room, which is normally ocnsidered crazy, is beyond crazy at this point

there are so many people, that hallways are crowded, cops are sent in for crowd control and they are supposedly starting to set up tent screening centers outside on the city block

 

NY pres and methodist hospital is experiencing a severe shortage of surgical and protective masks, gloves, swabs, goggles, etc......and are prioritizing who they hand them out to....meaning  many staff who normally wear masks and gloves, may not have them at this time

 

it is very real, and the stress and panic you hear form the nurses and doctors working within those confines is very palpable

 

 

 


Thank you for reporting this and, no, this is not exaggerated in the slightest.

3/16/20 1:54 PM
2/27/11
Posts: 11201
In Limbo -
NoNeed4aScreenName - 
The_Pundits_Ghost -

Just saw this online. Im guessing you would agree with this statement?

 

View this post on Instagram

I received the following text from an ER doctor in NYC this morning. It underscores how bad things might get and how important it is to isolate now, if possible. Here's the text: “Please spread the word to all of your nyc friends that this situation is sooooo bad!!!! Testing is frighteningly inadequate. While I do think our hospital system is doing the best it can and even doing in house testing now, they can still only do 180 tests/day, so we can only test people who are getting admitted to the hospital and sick healthcare workers. No one is testing sick people in the community!!! And we are seeing tons of them and turning them away. It is truly frightening. The life threatening lung issues are most common in the 2nd week of illness, so I think it’s going to get really bad in a week. My colleagues and I are all getting really scared and feel that the city is unprepared. Anyway, please don’t use my name or hospital affiliation, but I would definitely spread the word that everyone needs to be isolating themselves as much as possible. This may be obvious at this point, but I felt it my duty to warn people.”

A post shared by Tim Ferriss (@timferriss) on

Theres also some fear mongering going in the same manner as the old email forwards. 

 

SIft through the disinformation


i personally spoke with Drs. and Nurses that work in some of NYC's most well known, public hospitals

..Bellevue Hospital (the flagship hospital of NYC....LAw & Order SVU always has seens there and about Bellevue hospital) emergency room, which is normally ocnsidered crazy, is beyond crazy at this point

there are so many people, that hallways are crowded, cops are sent in for crowd control and they are supposedly starting to set up tent screening centers outside on the city block

 

NY pres and methodist hospital is experiencing a severe shortage of surgical and protective masks, gloves, swabs, goggles, etc......and are prioritizing who they hand them out to....meaning  many staff who normally wear masks and gloves, may not have them at this time

 

it is very real, and the stress and panic you hear form the nurses and doctors working within those confines is very palpable

 

 

 

Pre-triage tents is the first thing they should setup, otherwise ppl with Covid are going to infect EVERYBODY in the ER including nurses and doctors.

 

Edited: 3/16/20 2:00 PM
6/13/03
Posts: 27140
pidgey -
In Limbo -
NoNeed4aScreenName - 
The_Pundits_Ghost -

Just saw this online. Im guessing you would agree with this statement?

 

View this post on Instagram

I received the following text from an ER doctor in NYC this morning. It underscores how bad things might get and how important it is to isolate now, if possible. Here's the text: “Please spread the word to all of your nyc friends that this situation is sooooo bad!!!! Testing is frighteningly inadequate. While I do think our hospital system is doing the best it can and even doing in house testing now, they can still only do 180 tests/day, so we can only test people who are getting admitted to the hospital and sick healthcare workers. No one is testing sick people in the community!!! And we are seeing tons of them and turning them away. It is truly frightening. The life threatening lung issues are most common in the 2nd week of illness, so I think it’s going to get really bad in a week. My colleagues and I are all getting really scared and feel that the city is unprepared. Anyway, please don’t use my name or hospital affiliation, but I would definitely spread the word that everyone needs to be isolating themselves as much as possible. This may be obvious at this point, but I felt it my duty to warn people.”

A post shared by Tim Ferriss (@timferriss) on

Theres also some fear mongering going in the same manner as the old email forwards. 

 

SIft through the disinformation

 

i personally spoke with Drs. and Nurses that work in some of NYC's most well known, public hospitals

..Bellevue Hospital (the flagship hospital of NYC....LAw & Order SVU always has seens there and about Bellevue hospital) emergency room, which is normally ocnsidered crazy, is beyond crazy at this point

there are so many people, that hallways are crowded, cops are sent in for crowd control and they are supposedly starting to set up tent screening centers outside on the city block

 

NY pres and methodist hospital is experiencing a severe shortage of surgical and protective masks, gloves, swabs, goggles, etc......and are prioritizing who they hand them out to....meaning  many staff who normally wear masks and gloves, may not have them at this time

 

it is very real, and the stress and panic you hear form the nurses and doctors working within those confines is very palpable

 

 

 

Pre-triage tents is the first thing they should setup, otherwise ppl with Covid are going to infect EVERYBODY in the ER including nurses and doctors.

 

We have them in front of the hospitals out here in Ca

3/16/20 2:08 PM
11/16/09
Posts: 4502
mataleo1 -
tbizzle - 

Why is COVID-19 more dangerous than swine flu when 60 million Americans were infected and 300,000 were hospitalized? There was no where near this amount of panic back then. 


We don't have exact data to compare and numbers might be completely off, but, based on what we have, I can break it down quickly:

Mortality: for swine flu (in the US) was about 4k/22 million and preliminary data from Italy and Spain is that it's somewhere between 2-5%

Acute Care necessity: around 0.2% for swine flue and about 10-15% for COVID-19.

Hospitalizations: about 1-2% for swine flu, about 25% for COVID

Again, the numbers might be completely different as we know more, but it seems reasonable to be prepared.

Seems to me the 2-5% number is extremely high, since those who have it and don't get bad are less likely to report it, and those who have it and died in Spain and Italy, have been overwhelmingly the elderly and those with compromised immune systems. Still, much more dangerous than swine flu, even if it's just 1%, or 1.5%.

Edited: 3/16/20 2:24 PM
10/23/05
Posts: 2937
Osbot - 
mataleo1 -
tbizzle - 

Why is COVID-19 more dangerous than swine flu when 60 million Americans were infected and 300,000 were hospitalized? There was no where near this amount of panic back then. 


We don't have exact data to compare and numbers might be completely off, but, based on what we have, I can break it down quickly:

Mortality: for swine flu (in the US) was about 4k/22 million and preliminary data from Italy and Spain is that it's somewhere between 2-5%

Acute Care necessity: around 0.2% for swine flue and about 10-15% for COVID-19.

Hospitalizations: about 1-2% for swine flu, about 25% for COVID

Again, the numbers might be completely different as we know more, but it seems reasonable to be prepared.

Seems to me the 2-5% number is extremely high, since those who have it and don't get bad are less likely to report it, and those who have it and died in Spain and Italy, have been overwhelmingly the elderly and those with compromised immune systems. Still, much more dangerous than swine flu, even if it's just 1%, or 1.5%.


You are correct.

The mortality rate is
Deaths caused by COVID
divided by
Total number of COVID infections

Unfortunately, we simply don't know the number of COVID infections as proper testing is not performed. I'd argue that we also don't know the proper number of deaths caused by COVID for the same reasons; patients often die prior to COVID confirmation.

We can only take the best statistics available right now and they're from South Korea (which gives a better sense of true incidence). And indeed the mortality rate is closer to 1%. Still higher than the flu or Swine flu
3/16/20 2:21 PM
11/23/10
Posts: 88
Osbot -
mataleo1 -
tbizzle - 

Why is COVID-19 more dangerous than swine flu when 60 million Americans were infected and 300,000 were hospitalized? There was no where near this amount of panic back then. 


We don't have exact data to compare and numbers might be completely off, but, based on what we have, I can break it down quickly:

Mortality: for swine flu (in the US) was about 4k/22 million and preliminary data from Italy and Spain is that it's somewhere between 2-5%

Acute Care necessity: around 0.2% for swine flue and about 10-15% for COVID-19.

Hospitalizations: about 1-2% for swine flu, about 25% for COVID

Again, the numbers might be completely different as we know more, but it seems reasonable to be prepared.

Seems to me the 2-5% number is extremely high, since those who have it and don't get bad are less likely to report it, and those who have it and died in Spain and Italy, have been overwhelmingly the elderly and those with compromised immune systems. Still, much more dangerous than swine flu, even if it's just 1%, or 1.5%.

True. But due to the lack of post-mortem testing and awareness of covid-19 in the early days of outbreaks, total deaths related to it is also under-reported (probably to a lesser extent).

All these numbers aren’t very useful by themselves, but they each paint a part of the bigger picture. There’s a great blog post about it which goes into the details, I’ll see if I can find it and post it here.

3/16/20 2:24 PM
6/18/19
Posts: 133


3/16/20 2:26 PM
3/23/12
Posts: 25158

Governor of Maryland closed All restaurants, bars, gyms

3/16/20 2:28 PM
10/23/05
Posts: 2938
140kev - 



As much as testing for COVID is deficient, it's even more so for the flu (we simply don't test patients with mild symptoms). Whereas we are closer to the true incidence for COVID (at least in some countries)

My guesstimate is that mortality for COVID will be 0.5-1.0% compared to 0.1% for the flu.

3/16/20 2:28 PM
11/23/10
Posts: 89
Job Security -
Osbot -
mataleo1 -
tbizzle - 

Why is COVID-19 more dangerous than swine flu when 60 million Americans were infected and 300,000 were hospitalized? There was no where near this amount of panic back then. 


We don't have exact data to compare and numbers might be completely off, but, based on what we have, I can break it down quickly:

Mortality: for swine flu (in the US) was about 4k/22 million and preliminary data from Italy and Spain is that it's somewhere between 2-5%

Acute Care necessity: around 0.2% for swine flue and about 10-15% for COVID-19.

Hospitalizations: about 1-2% for swine flu, about 25% for COVID

Again, the numbers might be completely different as we know more, but it seems reasonable to be prepared.

Seems to me the 2-5% number is extremely high, since those who have it and don't get bad are less likely to report it, and those who have it and died in Spain and Italy, have been overwhelmingly the elderly and those with compromised immune systems. Still, much more dangerous than swine flu, even if it's just 1%, or 1.5%.

True. But due to the lack of post-mortem testing and awareness of covid-19 in the early days of outbreaks, total deaths related to it is also under-reported (probably to a lesser extent).

All these numbers aren’t very useful by themselves, but they each paint a part of the bigger picture. There’s a great blog post about it which goes into the details, I’ll see if I can find it and post it here.

Here is the link, for anyone who’s interestes. It’s a bit old (crazy to say that about something less than a week old), but it goes through the logic and numbers and predicts rather precisely where we’re at now. Which isn’t very consoling.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

and thanks for the blue name whoever made that happen!

Edited: 3/16/20 2:42 PM
6/29/09
Posts: 3230

Why is the concern about transmission only focused on touching your face as opposed to something like using a public toilet? 

Edited: 3/16/20 2:40 PM
2/4/09
Posts: 10494
In Limbo -
NoNeed4aScreenName - 
The_Pundits_Ghost -

Just saw this online. Im guessing you would agree with this statement?

 

View this post on Instagram

I received the following text from an ER doctor in NYC this morning. It underscores how bad things might get and how important it is to isolate now, if possible. Here's the text: “Please spread the word to all of your nyc friends that this situation is sooooo bad!!!! Testing is frighteningly inadequate. While I do think our hospital system is doing the best it can and even doing in house testing now, they can still only do 180 tests/day, so we can only test people who are getting admitted to the hospital and sick healthcare workers. No one is testing sick people in the community!!! And we are seeing tons of them and turning them away. It is truly frightening. The life threatening lung issues are most common in the 2nd week of illness, so I think it’s going to get really bad in a week. My colleagues and I are all getting really scared and feel that the city is unprepared. Anyway, please don’t use my name or hospital affiliation, but I would definitely spread the word that everyone needs to be isolating themselves as much as possible. This may be obvious at this point, but I felt it my duty to warn people.”

A post shared by Tim Ferriss (@timferriss) on

Theres also some fear mongering going in the same manner as the old email forwards. 

 

SIft through the disinformation

 

i personally spoke with Drs. and Nurses that work in some of NYC's most well known, public hospitals

..Bellevue Hospital (the flagship hospital of NYC....LAw & Order SVU always has seens there and about Bellevue hospital) emergency room, which is normally ocnsidered crazy, is beyond crazy at this point

there are so many people, that hallways are crowded, cops are sent in for crowd control and they are supposedly starting to set up tent screening centers outside on the city block

 

NY pres and methodist hospital is experiencing a severe shortage of surgical and protective masks, gloves, swabs, goggles, etc......and are prioritizing who they hand them out to....meaning  many staff who normally wear masks and gloves, may not have them at this time

 

it is very real, and the stress and panic you hear form the nurses and doctors working within those confines is very palpable

 

 

 

It was the exact opposite at the hospital I work at. 

 

We usually run at 110+/- 15 patients in the ED. 

 

There were 50 by the time I left work yesterday. 

 

Coronavirus seems to have scared people away. And yes there are confimed cases in my city

3/16/20 2:41 PM
2/4/09
Posts: 10495

^Not many cases but its here

3/16/20 2:59 PM
12/9/13
Posts: 27365

I live in the Netherlands, they have chosen to follow the "herd immunity" protocol

All other EU countries are in lockdown, we are the only one not in lockdown.

I am very afraid it will cost us many deaths and still we are forced to go in lockdown

3/16/20 3:00 PM
1/15/13
Posts: 1282

Boris johnson held a conference about an hour ago and still isn't doing anything about it but advise people if they show symptoms to self isolate and pregnant and elderly not to leave home,  if you call nhs they do the same.

All schools, bars, restaurants etc remain open, no government ban on mass gatherings.

What do you think of his approach?

Edited: 3/16/20 3:02 PM
6/18/19
Posts: 134
NoNeed4aScreenName -
In Limbo -
NoNeed4aScreenName - 
The_Pundits_Ghost -

Just saw this online. Im guessing you would agree with this statement?

 

View this post on Instagram

I received the following text from an ER doctor in NYC this morning. It underscores how bad things might get and how important it is to isolate now, if possible. Here's the text: “Please spread the word to all of your nyc friends that this situation is sooooo bad!!!! Testing is frighteningly inadequate. While I do think our hospital system is doing the best it can and even doing in house testing now, they can still only do 180 tests/day, so we can only test people who are getting admitted to the hospital and sick healthcare workers. No one is testing sick people in the community!!! And we are seeing tons of them and turning them away. It is truly frightening. The life threatening lung issues are most common in the 2nd week of illness, so I think it’s going to get really bad in a week. My colleagues and I are all getting really scared and feel that the city is unprepared. Anyway, please don’t use my name or hospital affiliation, but I would definitely spread the word that everyone needs to be isolating themselves as much as possible. This may be obvious at this point, but I felt it my duty to warn people.”

A post shared by Tim Ferriss (@timferriss) on

Theres also some fear mongering going in the same manner as the old email forwards. 

 

SIft through the disinformation

 

i personally spoke with Drs. and Nurses that work in some of NYC's most well known, public hospitals

..Bellevue Hospital (the flagship hospital of NYC....LAw & Order SVU always has seens there and about Bellevue hospital) emergency room, which is normally ocnsidered crazy, is beyond crazy at this point

there are so many people, that hallways are crowded, cops are sent in for crowd control and they are supposedly starting to set up tent screening centers outside on the city block

 

NY pres and methodist hospital is experiencing a severe shortage of surgical and protective masks, gloves, swabs, goggles, etc......and are prioritizing who they hand them out to....meaning  many staff who normally wear masks and gloves, may not have them at this time

 

it is very real, and the stress and panic you hear form the nurses and doctors working within those confines is very palpable

 

 

 

It was the exact opposite at the hospital I work at. 

 

We usually run at 110+/- 15 patients in the ED. 

 

There were 50 by the time I left work yesterday. 

 

Coronavirus seems to have scared people away. And yes there are confimed cases in my city

My case load is down too.

Edited: 3/16/20 3:11 PM
2/4/09
Posts: 10497
NoNeed4aScreenName -
The_Pundits_Ghost -

Just saw this online. Im guessing you would agree with this statement?

 

View this post on Instagram

I received the following text from an ER doctor in NYC this morning. It underscores how bad things might get and how important it is to isolate now, if possible. Here's the text: “Please spread the word to all of your nyc friends that this situation is sooooo bad!!!! Testing is frighteningly inadequate. While I do think our hospital system is doing the best it can and even doing in house testing now, they can still only do 180 tests/day, so we can only test people who are getting admitted to the hospital and sick healthcare workers. No one is testing sick people in the community!!! And we are seeing tons of them and turning them away. It is truly frightening. The life threatening lung issues are most common in the 2nd week of illness, so I think it’s going to get really bad in a week. My colleagues and I are all getting really scared and feel that the city is unprepared. Anyway, please don’t use my name or hospital affiliation, but I would definitely spread the word that everyone needs to be isolating themselves as much as possible. This may be obvious at this point, but I felt it my duty to warn people.”

A post shared by Tim Ferriss (@timferriss) on

Theres also some fear mongering going in the same manner as the old email forwards. 

 

SIft through the disinformation

Also another thin the person doesnt understand is that in order to not overwhelm labs with testing criteria needs to be met.

 

I'm not sure exactly the clinical protocols but anyone familiar with laboratory experiments can tell you they take time. I know clinical labs probably have test kits but it takes time for reactions to occur. Especially with PCR depending on the amount of cycles needed. I'm sure they are using microplates with many wells but that also means prepping of more samples. 

 

So in order to keep this working in any normal type of fashion there are specific criteria that should be met before getting tested.

 

You can have any person just walking up and just be short of breath or a cough. There are many things that can cause shortness of breath or coughs.

 

3/16/20 3:11 PM
10/23/05
Posts: 2939
newbie2013 - 

Boris johnson held a conference about an hour ago and still isn't doing anything about it but advise people if they show symptoms to self isolate and pregnant and elderly not to leave home,  if you call nhs they do the same.

All schools, bars, restaurants etc remain open, no government ban on mass gatherings.

What do you think of his approach?


Hindsight will tell us who is/was right.

I don't get the UK approach. It's clearly keeping the economy afloat compared to what other countries are doing, but it just seems like a very bold risk. I'm happy with the US/Canada approach with the little I know.

3/16/20 3:23 PM
12/12/07
Posts: 13876

Here in Los Angeles they shut down all gyms, bars, clubs, movies, etc. restaurants are take out only. Schools are shut down until the end of the month. All film/tv prods have also been shut down. 

Edited: 3/16/20 3:33 PM
2/4/09
Posts: 10498
140kev -
NoNeed4aScreenName -
In Limbo -
NoNeed4aScreenName - 
The_Pundits_Ghost -

Just saw this online. Im guessing you would agree with this statement?

 

View this post on Instagram

I received the following text from an ER doctor in NYC this morning. It underscores how bad things might get and how important it is to isolate now, if possible. Here's the text: “Please spread the word to all of your nyc friends that this situation is sooooo bad!!!! Testing is frighteningly inadequate. While I do think our hospital system is doing the best it can and even doing in house testing now, they can still only do 180 tests/day, so we can only test people who are getting admitted to the hospital and sick healthcare workers. No one is testing sick people in the community!!! And we are seeing tons of them and turning them away. It is truly frightening. The life threatening lung issues are most common in the 2nd week of illness, so I think it’s going to get really bad in a week. My colleagues and I are all getting really scared and feel that the city is unprepared. Anyway, please don’t use my name or hospital affiliation, but I would definitely spread the word that everyone needs to be isolating themselves as much as possible. This may be obvious at this point, but I felt it my duty to warn people.”

A post shared by Tim Ferriss (@timferriss) on

Theres also some fear mongering going in the same manner as the old email forwards. 

 

SIft through the disinformation

 

i personally spoke with Drs. and Nurses that work in some of NYC's most well known, public hospitals

..Bellevue Hospital (the flagship hospital of NYC....LAw & Order SVU always has seens there and about Bellevue hospital) emergency room, which is normally ocnsidered crazy, is beyond crazy at this point

there are so many people, that hallways are crowded, cops are sent in for crowd control and they are supposedly starting to set up tent screening centers outside on the city block

 

NY pres and methodist hospital is experiencing a severe shortage of surgical and protective masks, gloves, swabs, goggles, etc......and are prioritizing who they hand them out to....meaning  many staff who normally wear masks and gloves, may not have them at this time

 

it is very real, and the stress and panic you hear form the nurses and doctors working within those confines is very palpable

 

 

 

It was the exact opposite at the hospital I work at. 

 

We usually run at 110+/- 15 patients in the ED. 

 

There were 50 by the time I left work yesterday. 

 

Coronavirus seems to have scared people away. And yes there are confimed cases in my city

My case load is down too.

Yeah. Still early here but it was promising to see that perhaps people realize that they should avoid the ED unless absolutely necessary to be able to concentrate resources towards the potential influx of patients. 

 

And who wants to sit in the ED for a few hours with a bunch of sick people right around now. 

 

Outside testing seems to be getting set up and hopefully people that meet the criteria to be tested find their way there if they show symptoms as opposed to the ED. 

 

Shutting down elective surgery will free up the necessary beds since that's usually a big influx of patients during the week. The surgery beds can be redirected for medicine units. 

 

I feel like steps are being taken 

Edited: 3/17/20 11:28 AM
11/23/10
Posts: 90
140kev -

Always good to put thing into perspective, but like mataleo said, flu is just as selective tested as covid-19, if not more.

I can give a better estimate og influenza mortality based on some very detailed monitoring we have set up in Denmark, where I work:

Each week during flu season (weeks 40 through 20), a random sample of the population in surveyed for influenza-like symptoms via questionairre, GP’s contact diagnoses are data mined for influenza-like symptoms, all influenza tests and influenza vaccinations are centrally registered regardless of outcomes.

For the flu season 2018-19 (for season 19-20 they’ve updated the system and fked the reporting up) in a population of about 5 million adults:

About 400 out of the 1500 persons who answered questionnaire reported flu-like symptoms in at least one week. Most weeks it was just 1-2% who reported symptoms though, and some of those were likely due to common colds, but during a three-week peak period, 5-6% reported this, likely representing an outbreak. A similar pattern was seen in the mined data from GPs and test results.

57,500 (about 1 % of the total population) persons were tested. 11,500 were positive for influenza A. 790 deaths were registered due to influenza.

Based on these numbers, mortality risk of influenza was 5% - 10% in confirmed cases. But this estimate among only the confirmed cases is overestimating the risk (5-30% of the population experience symptoms, (for simplicity lets say 20 %) but only the 1% most sick are tested and diagnosed). The true risk of all cases is then between 0.25% and 0.5 %

Even though that particular flu season wasn’t as bad a some others (like H1N1 Swine Flu), it wasn’t orders of magnitude milder. 

In short: Regarding mortality risk covid-19 is no flu. And the problem with covid-19 is not just mortality, it’s how contagious it is and how many young (relatively), healthy adults that need ICU beds to survive.

 

EDIT: This estimate is among people with flu and with symptoms. If you want to compare it to mortality estimates for covid from e.g. S Korea, who are hovering around 0.6, you have to take into account that they are testing  left-right-and-center and very aggressively tracking down and testing contacts of infected without symptoms. This drives the observed mortality rate down  compared to my estimate of influenza (along with a healthcare system running within capacity and a concentration of cases in a relatively fit subpopulation (the christian sect)). To account for those infected with flu but without symptoms, you would probably have to lower that estimate by a fourth. Or alternatively, adjust the mortality rate of covid19 in S Korea for the approx. 50% without symptoms, which would result in a covid19- mortality of approx. 1.2%, which is probably still lower than we can expect in Europe and the US, because we are probably going to get hit harder due to less strict enforcement of mitigation policies, with resulting ICU overload and more sick in the vulnerable populations. If Italy is any indicator, we’re looking at upwards of 5% mortality rates the way things are going there as of now.

3/16/20 4:45 PM
1/15/13
Posts: 1283
mataleo1 -
newbie2013 - 

Boris johnson held a conference about an hour ago and still isn't doing anything about it but advise people if they show symptoms to self isolate and pregnant and elderly not to leave home,  if you call nhs they do the same.

All schools, bars, restaurants etc remain open, no government ban on mass gatherings.

What do you think of his approach?


Hindsight will tell us who is/was right.

I don't get the UK approach. It's clearly keeping the economy afloat compared to what other countries are doing, but it just seems like a very bold risk. I'm happy with the US/Canada approach with the little I know.

Thanks for the reply, i too would like an approach more in line with the rest of the world.

To be honest he has pissed me right off, I'm asthmatic, my wife's pregnant and our youngest son is disabled and has a pretty crap immune system.

It is times like this that you look to the leader of your country to be decisive and try to do what is best for the populace instead of just repeating the same advice we have been hearing on every news station.

3/16/20 5:00 PM
5/11/11
Posts: 2156

Any updated best practices for home care? Also, recommendations on when to go to the hospital and how to deal with multiple sick people in a single household?   Thank you for all your input so far! 

3/16/20 7:24 PM
10/27/19
Posts: 333
Morpheus1976 -

I live in the Netherlands, they have chosen to follow the "herd immunity" protocol

All other EU countries are in lockdown, we are the only one not in lockdown.

I am very afraid it will cost us many deaths and still we are forced to go in lockdown

What’s going on over there? I have many colleagues over in Tilburg but there hasn’t been much word in the situation over there. 

3/16/20 8:03 PM
2/14/11
Posts: 35480
newbie2013 -
mataleo1 -
newbie2013 - 

Boris johnson held a conference about an hour ago and still isn't doing anything about it but advise people if they show symptoms to self isolate and pregnant and elderly not to leave home,  if you call nhs they do the same.

All schools, bars, restaurants etc remain open, no government ban on mass gatherings.

What do you think of his approach?


Hindsight will tell us who is/was right.

I don't get the UK approach. It's clearly keeping the economy afloat compared to what other countries are doing, but it just seems like a very bold risk. I'm happy with the US/Canada approach with the little I know.

Thanks for the reply, i too would like an approach more in line with the rest of the world.

To be honest he has pissed me right off, I'm asthmatic, my wife's pregnant and our youngest son is disabled and has a pretty crap immune system.

It is times like this that you look to the leader of your country to be decisive and try to do what is best for the populace instead of just repeating the same advice we have been hearing on every news station.

I’m also from the UK and whilst our current approach is a roll of the dice it could be hugely beneficial longer term. I’ll judge the decision in a year or two.