OtherGround Forums OG doc. AMA on COVID-19

4/16/20 2:13 PM
7/2/11
Posts: 1388

Also why can't those droplets or aerosolized particles travel at night when there is much less uv/microwaves or whatever may destroy the virus. I heard it could live for two or three years in a normal freezer, so it just seems like it is hard to kill. 

4/16/20 2:32 PM
3/17/14
Posts: 2778
youarewhatiswrong -
gregbrady -
youarewhatiswrong -
mataleo1 -
youarewhatiswrong - 
knappster -
ons ear - Srry if this has been answered before but I have a question..say some 28 year old Joe blow takes the test and tests positive for Covid 19.. He only has a minor sore throat and light fever.. What happens then? Is he brought in and quarantined in the hospital and given huge doses of anti-biotics and other assorted treatments?

What % of people in the United States have been tested for Covid 19? Anyone know?

first off, antibiotics are for bacteria not viruses. so no one is gonna give you antibiotics. 

second, you would be staying home, regardless of your symptoms unlesa you start having breathing issues. when you can no longer breath basically, you go to the hospital 

 

and as of right now 3,241,379 tests have been done in United states.  641,762 were positive. 28,442 have died so far. 

The antibiotic azithromycin has been used to effectively treat covid-19 infections.


Because it has antiviral properties (as reported by the French researchers)

I know, but he said nobody is going to give you antibiotics but they actually are going to.

its an anti-viral in this case not an antiobiotic

 

we dumb things down for the general public and occassionally ppl try to pretend like this is a flaw in what we're saying for some reason.

did you really think mata was confused about azithromycin?

I wasnt replying to mata, I was replying to knappster

Though azithromycin is an antibiotic and thus ineffective alone against viruses, some clinicians have seen limited success in COVID-19 coronavirus disease patients when adding it to chloroquine (Aralen) and/or hydroxycholoroquine (Plaquenil) in the sickest patients.

 

As of March 30, 2020, there is little solid evidence for this drug combination's effectiveness in general against COVID-19, however.

 

The initial COVID-19 data about azithromycin came from just a few patients in an observational "open label" study, which makes it difficult to isolate variables and say whether a particular drug is working.

 

so back to my original statement, doctors are not just going to give antibiotics for a virus. When was the last time you received Antibiotics for the Flu? never. theres still limited data to prove azithromycin works in conjunction with hydroxycholoroquine.

 

for Pneumonia thats another story

4/16/20 2:33 PM
11/23/10
Posts: 210
kevind4123 -
Job Security -
kevind4123 -

  Is this virus airborne? The way it spread so fast and in rural areas seems like it could be, right? If it can live for three days on metal and plastic couldn't your breath or any moisture coming from your nose or mouth be small enough to just carry for miles? I don't know why no one is talking about it at least potentially being airborne. Is this just a tactic to not freak out the general public? I hope you can tell me that it isn't possible. Thank you for taking the time to do this btw, I'm sure you are busy.

It’s not a black/white thing, it’s a continuum of likelihood, even though the droplet vs airborne categorization suggests otherwise.

A lot of different infections are potentially airborne, but in very few does this way of transmission account for a lot of the infections, and these are the ones categorized as airborne, e.g. measles.

It’s a combination of an agent being aerosolized, being stable in aerosols over time to remain biologically active, and finally how small of a dose of active virus is required to establish infection. And even though lab studies can point you in the right direction on all three parameters, you need real-life studies to establish if this is the case. 

Lab studies suggests that this thing is about as stable in artificial aerosols as SARS, which did not record a single confirmed case of transmission that could only be explained through the airborne route (but some models suggested that the pattern of geospatial spread looked like an airborne infection).. The other two parameters are unknown at this point, but COVID-19 is infinitely more transmissible than SARS was. Whether this is down to airborne spread or just more droplet/contact contagion, we don’t know yet. But it is probably further uup on the continuum than SARS.

If PPE was limitless, I imagine that we would err on the side of caution and treat it as potentially airborne. Right now we don’t have the equipment to to that, so it would be wrong to prioritize PPE-usage as if it was a airborne infection. Also, if you make people focus on protecting themselves from airborne transmission, they may become less aware of taking good contact/droplet precautions, which is probably the most important thing to do no matter what. So keeping focus on what we know is essential rather than complicating it based on uncertainty might also be part of the reason for it.

Edit: to answer your question: Covid-19 won’t spread through the air across miles. Even airborne viruses can’t do that - there’s too much dilution of virus particles and outside sun/UV radiation inactivates them. Airborne spread is about very small particles staying suspended in still air inside of a room for hours after an infected individual has been there, thus infecting those who come into the room and breathing the air long after.

Thank you for that information. I have one more question. What about the transmission in Michigan from the dead body? That was from some sort of contact? Like hand to eye, nose, or mouth? 

Sorry, I don’t know. I haven’t heard about that and can’t seem to google my way to it.

4/16/20 2:37 PM
11/23/10
Posts: 211
kevind4123 -

(but some models suggested that the pattern of geospatial spread looked like an airborne infection). This sounds scary btw.

No need to worry - if it had been airborne, we would have a pandemic back then, and with a much higher fatality rate than COVID-19. Models and theory are just qualified guess-work, and not worth much if reality doesn’t reflect them.

4/16/20 2:40 PM
7/2/11
Posts: 1389
Job Security -
kevind4123 -
Job Security -
kevind4123 -

  Is this virus airborne? The way it spread so fast and in rural areas seems like it could be, right? If it can live for three days on metal and plastic couldn't your breath or any moisture coming from your nose or mouth be small enough to just carry for miles? I don't know why no one is talking about it at least potentially being airborne. Is this just a tactic to not freak out the general public? I hope you can tell me that it isn't possible. Thank you for taking the time to do this btw, I'm sure you are busy.

It’s not a black/white thing, it’s a continuum of likelihood, even though the droplet vs airborne categorization suggests otherwise.

A lot of different infections are potentially airborne, but in very few does this way of transmission account for a lot of the infections, and these are the ones categorized as airborne, e.g. measles.

It’s a combination of an agent being aerosolized, being stable in aerosols over time to remain biologically active, and finally how small of a dose of active virus is required to establish infection. And even though lab studies can point you in the right direction on all three parameters, you need real-life studies to establish if this is the case. 

Lab studies suggests that this thing is about as stable in artificial aerosols as SARS, which did not record a single confirmed case of transmission that could only be explained through the airborne route (but some models suggested that the pattern of geospatial spread looked like an airborne infection).. The other two parameters are unknown at this point, but COVID-19 is infinitely more transmissible than SARS was. Whether this is down to airborne spread or just more droplet/contact contagion, we don’t know yet. But it is probably further uup on the continuum than SARS.

If PPE was limitless, I imagine that we would err on the side of caution and treat it as potentially airborne. Right now we don’t have the equipment to to that, so it would be wrong to prioritize PPE-usage as if it was a airborne infection. Also, if you make people focus on protecting themselves from airborne transmission, they may become less aware of taking good contact/droplet precautions, which is probably the most important thing to do no matter what. So keeping focus on what we know is essential rather than complicating it based on uncertainty might also be part of the reason for it.

Edit: to answer your question: Covid-19 won’t spread through the air across miles. Even airborne viruses can’t do that - there’s too much dilution of virus particles and outside sun/UV radiation inactivates them. Airborne spread is about very small particles staying suspended in still air inside of a room for hours after an infected individual has been there, thus infecting those who come into the room and breathing the air long after.

Thank you for that information. I have one more question. What about the transmission in Michigan from the dead body? That was from some sort of contact? Like hand to eye, nose, or mouth? 

Sorry, I don’t know. I haven’t heard about that and can’t seem to google my way to it.

Idk how I got Michigan in my mind. https://www.businessinsider.com/first-death-coronavirus-healthcare-caught-from-dead-body-thailand-2020-4. Reading too much misinformation and information.

4/16/20 2:44 PM
7/2/11
Posts: 1390

Im in dupage county, next to cook county. Chicago area. In case anyone was wondering and we are getting a ton of cases. 

4/16/20 3:18 PM
7/6/14
Posts: 4150
mataleo1 -
cyberc92 - 

Question regarding sports and physical activites, what is everyone's prediction as to when sports will resume (nfl,nhl) or when people can go back to fitness gyms (crossfit/martial arts)? I believe we are looking at the end of the year the earliest but some people believe that we will be up and running by the fall/late summer latest. 


That's a loaded question.

It will depend where you are. If in NYC, I'd assume MMA/BJJ gyms won't open for at least 6 months. Earlier for fitness gyms perhaps with a limit on how may can be there at one time. Might be earlier in non-endemic places.

NFL, NBA? Depends if they want to go ahead with fan-less arenas. I'm not the guy to ask :)

I don't think the NFL would risk players infecting other players. There would be a huge lawsuit. Really, to be safe , they need to just not have a NFL or NCAA football season in my opinion,Too much to risk . I can't imagine how badly that would hurt the NFL financially and especially the NCAA players on scholarship. 

4/16/20 3:25 PM
4/12/10
Posts: 310

 thought I would leave this for people smarter than me. Any way this is possible? Thanks to everyone sharing on here. 

4/16/20 3:34 PM
11/23/10
Posts: 212
kevind4123 -
Job Security -
kevind4123 -
Job Security -
kevind4123 -

  Is this virus airborne? The way it spread so fast and in rural areas seems like it could be, right? If it can live for three days on metal and plastic couldn't your breath or any moisture coming from your nose or mouth be small enough to just carry for miles? I don't know why no one is talking about it at least potentially being airborne. Is this just a tactic to not freak out the general public? I hope you can tell me that it isn't possible. Thank you for taking the time to do this btw, I'm sure you are busy.

It’s not a black/white thing, it’s a continuum of likelihood, even though the droplet vs airborne categorization suggests otherwise.

A lot of different infections are potentially airborne, but in very few does this way of transmission account for a lot of the infections, and these are the ones categorized as airborne, e.g. measles.

It’s a combination of an agent being aerosolized, being stable in aerosols over time to remain biologically active, and finally how small of a dose of active virus is required to establish infection. And even though lab studies can point you in the right direction on all three parameters, you need real-life studies to establish if this is the case. 

Lab studies suggests that this thing is about as stable in artificial aerosols as SARS, which did not record a single confirmed case of transmission that could only be explained through the airborne route (but some models suggested that the pattern of geospatial spread looked like an airborne infection).. The other two parameters are unknown at this point, but COVID-19 is infinitely more transmissible than SARS was. Whether this is down to airborne spread or just more droplet/contact contagion, we don’t know yet. But it is probably further uup on the continuum than SARS.

If PPE was limitless, I imagine that we would err on the side of caution and treat it as potentially airborne. Right now we don’t have the equipment to to that, so it would be wrong to prioritize PPE-usage as if it was a airborne infection. Also, if you make people focus on protecting themselves from airborne transmission, they may become less aware of taking good contact/droplet precautions, which is probably the most important thing to do no matter what. So keeping focus on what we know is essential rather than complicating it based on uncertainty might also be part of the reason for it.

Edit: to answer your question: Covid-19 won’t spread through the air across miles. Even airborne viruses can’t do that - there’s too much dilution of virus particles and outside sun/UV radiation inactivates them. Airborne spread is about very small particles staying suspended in still air inside of a room for hours after an infected individual has been there, thus infecting those who come into the room and breathing the air long after.

Thank you for that information. I have one more question. What about the transmission in Michigan from the dead body? That was from some sort of contact? Like hand to eye, nose, or mouth? 

Sorry, I don’t know. I haven’t heard about that and can’t seem to google my way to it.

Idk how I got Michigan in my mind. https://www.businessinsider.com/first-death-coronavirus-healthcare-caught-from-dead-body-thailand-2020-4. Reading too much misinformation and information.

Ah. I don’t know the job description for a forendic worker in thailand, bit I would imagine it involved close physical contact and handling of the deceased. Seems like optimal conditions for direct contact spread.

Also, with regards to your question regarding virus inactivation at night-time: This is not my field of expertise, so I’m going by memory here, bit there’s more at play than just sunlight: Evaporation of water from the particle increasing soluble concentrations and inhibiting viral activity (but some studies in different viruses have actually found higher degrees of virus inactivation in moderate humidity rather than very dry humidity). One theory is that it’s oxygen in the air damaging the virus through oxidization, but lab studies of oxygen vs no oxygen in the environment have mostly shown similar degrees of viral inactivation.

It’s not well understood how, but it is clear that inactivation happens, and in most cases within hours. It’s actually a fascinating field of research with no clear logic or grand unifying theory to explain findings, which are often contradictory.

4/16/20 3:42 PM
7/2/11
Posts: 1391
Job Security -
kevind4123 -
Job Security -
kevind4123 -
Job Security -
kevind4123 -

  Is this virus airborne? The way it spread so fast and in rural areas seems like it could be, right? If it can live for three days on metal and plastic couldn't your breath or any moisture coming from your nose or mouth be small enough to just carry for miles? I don't know why no one is talking about it at least potentially being airborne. Is this just a tactic to not freak out the general public? I hope you can tell me that it isn't possible. Thank you for taking the time to do this btw, I'm sure you are busy.

It’s not a black/white thing, it’s a continuum of likelihood, even though the droplet vs airborne categorization suggests otherwise.

A lot of different infections are potentially airborne, but in very few does this way of transmission account for a lot of the infections, and these are the ones categorized as airborne, e.g. measles.

It’s a combination of an agent being aerosolized, being stable in aerosols over time to remain biologically active, and finally how small of a dose of active virus is required to establish infection. And even though lab studies can point you in the right direction on all three parameters, you need real-life studies to establish if this is the case. 

Lab studies suggests that this thing is about as stable in artificial aerosols as SARS, which did not record a single confirmed case of transmission that could only be explained through the airborne route (but some models suggested that the pattern of geospatial spread looked like an airborne infection).. The other two parameters are unknown at this point, but COVID-19 is infinitely more transmissible than SARS was. Whether this is down to airborne spread or just more droplet/contact contagion, we don’t know yet. But it is probably further uup on the continuum than SARS.

If PPE was limitless, I imagine that we would err on the side of caution and treat it as potentially airborne. Right now we don’t have the equipment to to that, so it would be wrong to prioritize PPE-usage as if it was a airborne infection. Also, if you make people focus on protecting themselves from airborne transmission, they may become less aware of taking good contact/droplet precautions, which is probably the most important thing to do no matter what. So keeping focus on what we know is essential rather than complicating it based on uncertainty might also be part of the reason for it.

Edit: to answer your question: Covid-19 won’t spread through the air across miles. Even airborne viruses can’t do that - there’s too much dilution of virus particles and outside sun/UV radiation inactivates them. Airborne spread is about very small particles staying suspended in still air inside of a room for hours after an infected individual has been there, thus infecting those who come into the room and breathing the air long after.

Thank you for that information. I have one more question. What about the transmission in Michigan from the dead body? That was from some sort of contact? Like hand to eye, nose, or mouth? 

Sorry, I don’t know. I haven’t heard about that and can’t seem to google my way to it.

Idk how I got Michigan in my mind. https://www.businessinsider.com/first-death-coronavirus-healthcare-caught-from-dead-body-thailand-2020-4. Reading too much misinformation and information.

Ah. I don’t know the job description for a forendic worker in thailand, bit I would imagine it involved close physical contact and handling of the deceased. Seems like optimal conditions for direct contact spread.

Also, with regards to your question regarding virus inactivation at night-time: This is not my field of expertise, so I’m going by memory here, bit there’s more at play than just sunlight: Evaporation of water from the particle increasing soluble concentrations and inhibiting viral activity (but some studies in different viruses have actually found higher degrees of virus inactivation in moderate humidity rather than very dry humidity). One theory is that it’s oxygen in the air damaging the virus through oxidization, but lab studies of oxygen vs no oxygen in the environment have mostly shown similar degrees of viral inactivation.

It’s not well understood how, but it is clear that inactivation happens, and in most cases within hours. It’s actually a fascinating field of research with no clear logic or grand unifying theory to explain findings, which are often contradictory.

Sounds like they need to work on the field. Very interesting, thanks again.

4/16/20 5:00 PM
2/4/09
Posts: 10953

So far today has been the first day since our first official Covid-19 patient that our admitted Covid patient count is lower than the previous day. 

 

A day doesnt make a trend but this is promising

4/16/20 5:04 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 65560
NoNeed4aScreenName - 

So far today has been the first day since our first official Covid-19 patient that our admitted Covid patient count is lower than the previous day. 

 

A day doesnt make a trend but this is promising


I think hospitalizations in NYC have been net negative for a few days now. Good news for sure.
4/16/20 5:17 PM
2/4/09
Posts: 10956
Tomato Can -
NoNeed4aScreenName - 

So far today has been the first day since our first official Covid-19 patient that our admitted Covid patient count is lower than the previous day. 

 

A day doesnt make a trend but this is promising


I think hospitalizations in NYC have been net negative for a few days now. Good news for sure.

New York has had a very different experience than us. We have had a very slightly increase in cases since our first case and this is the first sign of slowing down here. Not like it was bad but it's good to see it happening at home and not just reading or observing it in other countries/states/cities. 

4/16/20 5:21 PM
5/31/07
Posts: 10799

My area in MO has been really lucky.  I think between my county and all that touch there are less than 50 cases.  9 in my county and no deaths.  

I think some of the denial and argument comes also from people who are in areas with much less of a problem.  You cant hardly tell this is going on here besides a few closed hair salons and cut back hours at other stores and such.  

They brought in living trailers at the power plant I work at and have prepped to keep us there if need be, but our large company hasn't had a case yet even in the HQ which is in a big city.  

For now we just distance ourselves as much as we can and wipe everything down several times a day with bleach, going thru it by the drum.  

So being in an area blessed with hardly any cases we turn to the media....basically you have to grab a few sources for each topic and try to find a middle ground.  Except with this there isnt much of one...

4/16/20 6:01 PM
10/23/05
Posts: 3463

Just lost a colleague today to COVID.

44 years old. Very healthy. I knew him from the chess world.

RIP Dr. Dao

4/16/20 6:52 PM
10/27/19
Posts: 427
mataleo1 -

Just lost a colleague today to COVID.

44 years old. Very healthy. I knew him from the chess world.

RIP Dr. Dao

I’m sorry for you loss. 

4/16/20 7:17 PM
3/23/12
Posts: 25271
mataleo1 -

Just lost a colleague today to COVID.

44 years old. Very healthy. I knew him from the chess world.

RIP Dr. Dao

44, wow that’s terrible.  

4/16/20 7:18 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 27017
PenAndPaper -
mataleo1 -

Just lost a colleague today to COVID.

44 years old. Very healthy. I knew him from the chess world.

RIP Dr. Dao

I’m sorry for you loss. 

sorry for your loss as well. 

4/16/20 7:25 PM
10/16/10
Posts: 30050
Sorry to hear, mataleo.
4/16/20 7:35 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 8857
mataleo1 -

Just lost a colleague today to COVID.

44 years old. Very healthy. I knew him from the chess world.

RIP Dr. Dao

My condolences on your loss, and thank you for your contributions with this thread. Please be safe

Edited: 4/16/20 7:39 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 11789
Terrible to hear of more young dying!

I don't know if it's worth asking again at this point if the
mortality rates-per-age are changing as we get more data, or whether the increasing reports of middle-aged and younger deaths from COVID are due to an overall increase in deaths?

(Right now I'm hearing outside our house people banging on pots to thank health care workers, including some directed at my wife, a doctor. That's nice!)
4/16/20 8:01 PM
10/23/05
Posts: 3464
prof - Terrible to hear of more young dying!

I don't know if it's worth asking again at this point if the
mortality rates-per-age are changing as we get more data, or whether the increasing reports of middle-aged and younger deaths from COVID are due to an overall increase in deaths?

(Right now I'm hearing outside our house people banging on pots to thank health care workers, including some directed at my wife, a doctor. That's nice!)

Thank you for the wishes,

Alas or luckily, I'm bound to science and data. A loss that is personal and tragic doesn't change the fact that mortality in young and healthy people are incessantly rare.

However, COVID can get you in the hospital. It can force a tube down your throat. And it can sometimes kill you.

It is beyond crazy that some posters are still parroting the same idiotic message that this is just like a bad flu season.

4/16/20 8:06 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 11790

This thread is so long I know I mentioned a friend in London with COVID, but can't remember if I updated.

56, in good health, had back and forth struggle with fever, aches etc at home for weeks. At one point became somewhat unresponsive to wife. She called ambulance. He ended up in the hospital with an oxygen feed. Fortunately improved enough to be released after several days. Now at home convalescing.

He said he saw stuff in the hospital that would curl my toes with horror. I think he'll have to get over more than the disease symptoms.
4/16/20 8:10 PM
4/10/12
Posts: 11
Are breathing exercises like the Wim Hof method effective in aiding Covid patients' recover?
Edited: 4/16/20 11:51 PM
1/9/02
Posts: 51517
46and2 -

My area in MO has been really lucky.  I think between my county and all that touch there are less than 50 cases.  9 in my county and no deaths.  

I think some of the denial and argument comes also from people who are in areas with much less of a problem.  You cant hardly tell this is going on here besides a few closed hair salons and cut back hours at other stores and such.  

They brought in living trailers at the power plant I work at and have prepped to keep us there if need be, but our large company hasn't had a case yet even in the HQ which is in a big city.  

For now we just distance ourselves as much as we can and wipe everything down several times a day with bleach, going thru it by the drum.  

So being in an area blessed with hardly any cases we turn to the media....basically you have to grab a few sources for each topic and try to find a middle ground.  Except with this there isnt much of one...

rural areas are not getting impacted by this very much at all. this is mostly a dense urban area problem just as I suspected. the hospital here is laying ppl off because its empty

 

at the other end of the spectrum you have NYC.....