OtherGround Forums Oops, imperial college fucked up. Virus is not as

Edited: 13 days ago
4/27/18
Posts: 2475

deadly as thought.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Open the fucking country.

Looks like trump was right again.

Good news express is here 

Choo choo 

Another bad day for doomsdayers.

13 days ago
4/27/18
Posts: 2476

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model

13 days ago
4/27/18
Posts: 2477

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

13 days ago
4/27/18
Posts: 2478

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

Author and former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson broke down the bombshell report via Twitter on Thursday morning (view Twitter thread below).

“This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the [Imperial College] authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths — and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID,” started Berenson. 

“He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,” he wrote.

To put this number in context, there are usually thousands of deaths from the flu each year in the U.K. Here is some information from the University of Oxford on deaths ranging from 600-13,000 per year:

13 days ago
4/27/18
Posts: 2479

Berenson continued: “Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased — which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize — which in turn implies it is less dangerous.”

“Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within ‘two to three weeks’ — last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary,” the former reporter highlighted.

“One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* — the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work,” stressed Berenson. “Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US — I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.”

Ferguson’s change of tune comes days after Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta criticized the professor’s model.

“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” Gupta said, according to the Financial Times.

Professor Gupta led a team of researchers at Oxford in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.

If her model is accurate, fewer than one in a thousand who’ve been infected with COVID-19 become sick enough to need hospitalization, leaving the vast majority with mild cases or free of symptoms.

In other words, Ferguson’s highly influential initial model was off by orders of magnitude.

13 days ago
1/1/01
Posts: 49315

The models and predictions are all over the place.

This piece on CNBC uses soruces to claim a 4.5% CFR will millions dead.  Sounds like we won't know for sure until it's all over.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-may-be-deadlier-than-1918-flu-heres-how-it-stacks-up-to-other-pandemics.html

Edited: 13 days ago
5/13/11
Posts: 56874

We needed a 3rd thread on this with a false narrative headline...lol.

Dear OP,

 

Modeling is predictive, and constantly changes. The original modeling for the UK they did was based off the data they had back when the UK had mostly taken the stance of herd immunity. 

 

Unsurprisingly, when they changed that stance and started to take drastic measures for containment, this new model clearly show that their new strategy is working. 

 

So this is actually GREAT news for the UK. They didn't fuck up their old modeling or make errors in modeling. Things just changed in how the UK is handling it, for the better. 

13 days ago
8/26/09
Posts: 344
I don't need a fucking model to tell me coronavirus is real. I'm from Europe and people are dying. I have friends, family who have it...IT'S REAL DAMNIT!
13 days ago
1/1/01
Posts: 22885

Sounds like they are saying it may not be as bad as it was originally thought, however this info doesn't exactly evoke a lot of confidence on removal of any restrictions or that capacity will not be exceeded. Keep in mind this is also the UK he is talking about.

 

"He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.

The need for intensive care beds will get very close to capacity in some areas, but won’t be breached at a national level, said Ferguson. The projections are based on computer simulations of the virus spreading, which take into account the properties of the virus, the reduced transmission between people asked to stay at home and the capacity of hospitals, particularly intensive care units."

 

 

13 days ago
5/13/11
Posts: 56875

[He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks.

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/#ixzz6HnybPClY]

 

From the report CrimeCorn posted in his identical thread. 

13 days ago
5/13/11
Posts: 56876

What should actually be taken as good news and positive results from active measures being taken, is being falsely warped into an attempt at "I told you so!" by the nothing burger crowd. 

 

Insane. 

Edited: 13 days ago
10/24/10
Posts: 2606
Soup and Beer -

The models and predictions are all over the place.

This piece on CNBC uses soruces to claim a 4.5% CFR will millions dead.  Sounds like we won't know for sure until it's all over.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-may-be-deadlier-than-1918-flu-heres-how-it-stacks-up-to-other-pandemics.html

"May be deadlier than the 1918 flu!"

 

If you believe this sensationalist fear mongering bullshit you're gullible as fuck. Testing for COVID-19 is innacurate as fuck, false positives galore, and it's largely being used as a political agenda. Celebs left and right getting it with no symptoms? Bill Gates and his elite cronies held Event 201, a "pandemic excercise" specifically about coronaviruses right before the virus "pandemic" occurred. What are the fucking odds of that actually happening? There's always a fucking drill or excercise right before or during a false flag.

 

During this coronavirus excercise, they largely talked about how to "flood the zone" aka flood media with brainwashing techniques. This is no worse than any past decades of coronaviruses. Open the fucking country and open your fucking eyes while you're at it.

13 days ago
4/27/18
Posts: 2480
FETT_Lay'n'PrayNINJA -

What should actually be taken as good news and positive results from active measures being taken, is being falsely warped into an attempt at "I told you so!" by the nothing burger crowd. 

 

Insane. 

yea, you can suck my dick 

13 days ago
1/1/01
Posts: 53288

That's good news if it's correct 

13 days ago
11/1/03
Posts: 21512

It's confusing as you can have more dying but the death rate is lower.

13 days ago
10/2/12
Posts: 9519
FETT_Lay'n'PrayNINJA -

What should actually be taken as good news and positive results from active measures being taken, is being falsely warped into an attempt at "I told you so!" by the nothing burger crowd. 

 

Insane. 

I agree but, like everything, ppl have divided into teams and want to win. So, let’s take the good news and ignore the “I told you so”. 

13 days ago
4/27/18
Posts: 2481

Team Good guys: 1

Team apocalypse: 0

 

HAHAHAHAH

love how some of you get all triggered when the end of the world isnt happening. You are some sick fucks.

13 days ago
10/24/10
Posts: 2607

"Let's flood the zone with as much medical propaganda as we can!" "FEAR FEAR FEAR!" These elitist pricks who think they can rule society with fear campaigns can all sit and spin on a fucking broomstick.

 

13 days ago
12/17/09
Posts: 1499
FETT_Lay'n'PrayNINJA -

What should actually be taken as good news and positive results from active measures being taken, is being falsely warped into an attempt at "I told you so!" by the nothing burger crowd. 

 

Insane. 

So what you're trying to say is, Trump was right again? 

Edited: 13 days ago
1/1/01
Posts: 49317
The Last Emperor - 
Soup and Beer -

The models and predictions are all over the place.

This piece on CNBC uses soruces to claim a 4.5% CFR will millions dead.  Sounds like we won't know for sure until it's all over.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-may-be-deadlier-than-1918-flu-heres-how-it-stacks-up-to-other-pandemics.html

"May be deadlier than the 1918 flu!"

 

If you believe this sensationalist fear mongering bullshit you're gullible as fuck. Testing for COVID-19 is innacurate as fuck, false positives galore, and it's largely being used as a political agenda. Celebs left and right getting it with no symptoms? Bill Gates and his elite cronies held Event 201, a "pandemic excercise" specifically about coronaviruses right before the virus "pandemic" occurred. What are the fucking odds of that actually happening? There's always a fucking drill or excercise right before or during a false flag.

 

During this coronavirus excercise, they largely talked about how to "flood the zone" aka flood media with brainwashing techniques. This is no worse than any past decades of coronaviruses. Open the fucking country and open your fucking eyes while you're at it.

 

I only give credibility to the epidemiollogists while fully realizing that models are going to change and vary as they learn more about this new virus.

I neither believe it nor disbelieve it.  This is an outlying claim and on the highest end of the range that I've seen.  We won't know the real numbers until the pandemic has long since passed.

That being said, the person I definitely won't be listening to is some basement dweller on an off topic MMA forum calling himself "The Last Emperor" and who has zero epidemiological or medical expertise.

13 days ago
4/27/18
Posts: 2482

A good question to ask now is, why would Team Apocalypse want to destroy the economy of America?

 

13 days ago
1/1/01
Posts: 36362

To be honest id rather err on the side of caution.

Edited: 13 days ago
2/9/09
Posts: 10408

 

doesn't seem promising

 

13 days ago
8/23/11
Posts: 8706
Strangleu -

deadly as thought.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Open the fucking country.

Looks like trump was right again.

Good news express is here 

Choo choo 

Another bad day for doomsdayers.

For all the idiots (that’s you ninja ) 

that are going to go on about drastic measures taken that change the model

the UK didn’t institute a full lock down until 2 days ago. 
 

so this new model is based on data that does not include shuttering all commerce 

open up the fucking countries and get back to work 

13 days ago
6/26/06
Posts: 13459

I'm sorry, but the science is settled, we're doomed, ORANGE MAN BAD!