OtherGround Forums Oops, imperial college fucked up. Virus is not as

3/26/20 8:08 PM
4/2/08
Posts: 12056
FETT_Lay'n'PrayNINJA - 


freaky hillbilly. this is "bullshit" to you?

The reason this chart is most likely BS is because there was almost no testing of Corona in Jan And Feb. This chart will only go up as the amount of testing goes up. For all we know Corona has been here since December/Jan and millions have already been infected and recovered. Flatten the curve is a dumb theory when you don't even know when the curve started. In January everybody was saying it's been a bad year for the flu, but from all we know that could have been a mix of seasonal flu and Corona...and we could actually be in the climax right now instead of automatically assuming that the curve started when we started testing and putting a spotlight on anybody that went to the hospital with respitory problems or died in a nursing home.

3/26/20 8:15 PM
10/24/10
Posts: 2618

Let's all listen to the WHO and let them tell us how to survive a fake pandemic. A criminal organization, ran by Bill Gates' African buddy, who just happens to be a psychotic terrorist who was one of the highest ranking members of a regime responsible for killing and relocating more Africans than anyone in the world. Please tell me how to be healthy WHO and Bill Gates! What a fucking joke.

 

3/26/20 8:16 PM
6/20/13
Posts: 11189

3/26/20 8:17 PM
4/27/18
Posts: 2488

the WHO is fucking  incompetent and evil

3/26/20 8:25 PM
5/13/11
Posts: 56940
GSpenn fan -
FETT_Lay'n'PrayNINJA - 


freaky hillbilly. this is "bullshit" to you?

The reason this chart is most likely BS is because there was almost no testing of Corona in Jan And Feb. This chart will only go up as the amount of testing goes up. For all we know Corona has been here since December/Jan and millions have already been infected and recovered. Flatten the curve is a dumb theory when you don't even know when the curve started. In January everybody was saying it's been a bad year for the flu, but from all we know that could have been a mix of seasonal flu and Corona...and we could actually be in the climax right now instead of automatically assuming that the curve started when we started testing and putting a spotlight on anybody that went to the hospital with respitory problems or died in a nursing home.

If you want to call what we do factually know "BS" because of a bunch of wild speculation you can. I posted it because it is what we do know as fact. Those are the known number of deaths, by day. It would be slightly less sharp if your speculation is true, but I highly doubt we had "millions infected and recovered" in demand January. That's not very logical assumptions at all. 

3/26/20 8:30 PM
5/14/10
Posts: 7629
FETT_Lay'n'PrayNINJA - 
Freaky_Hibiki -
FETT_Lay'n'PrayNINJA - 
Freaky_Hibiki -
FETT_Lay'n'PrayNINJA - 
Freaky_Hibiki -
FETT_Lay'n'PrayNINJA - 


freaky hillbilly. this is "bullshit" to you?

Is that a recent graph? Has it been corrected yet? Time will tell if it's bullshit. The other totally accurate graph was, so I won't be surprised.

The dates are at the bottom. Seems current to the 25th. 


And the other graph was "accurate" right up until the second they said "whoops, we lied!". Also, Hillary had a 96% chance of beating Trump before Russia interfered. How soon we forget who lies to us the most.

Jesus fuck you really are living up to your SN. 

 

The other thing you're talking about isn't a GRAPH of facts, and they didn't say they "lied". 

 

It was scientific MODELING based on the fact that AT THAT TIME the UK was taking a "herd immunity" approach. (Dumbed down for a hillbilly that means basically not doing anything, wanting everyone to contract it in the Hope's that they would develop immunities naturally)

 

Once the UK ditched that mentality and started actually mass testing and taking precautionary measures, things changed. So they did NEW modeling based on those changes, and it looks much more promising. 

 

The graph I posted that you're trying to compare to speculative modeling is FACT. Factual graph of the number of dead Americans. 

 

Hope this helps. 


Insult if you feel the need to, it's not unexpected. Just like I won't expect a follow up post when they very quietly inform admit that most of these deaths were in people who were actively dying and would have likely been dead by now if they had gotten the fly or even a bad cold. By all means, continue hiding in your cupboard if it makes you feel better. Your buttons were pushed. They knew which ones to press for this reaction and you are reacting accordingly. Carry on.

I'm sorry if I hurt your feelings. 

 

You tried to compare a factual graph of confirmed deaths in the USA, to how scientists and experts remodeled SPECULATION. 

 

I can't help if that was a terribly idiotic thing for you to do. I'll try and tone down my making of fun of you now that I know you're sensitive. 

 

Stay safe. 


Right, my feeling are hurt because you are panicking over nothing. I hope you can find someone to VU for simply agreeing with you. It's not going to be me. Tho I usually do agree with a lot of what you say on the OG, but apparently I do terribly idiotic things so that must say something about the things you post. In the end, we will see who was right and who was wrong , as always, and that's really all there is to it. You stay trembling in the cupboard, lil fella, and I will be enjoying my life.
3/26/20 8:38 PM
11/10/18
Posts: 6734
Mit -

To be honest id rather err on the side of caution.

Then stay home and be safe. But don’t force it upon people under 65 years old.

3/26/20 8:56 PM
3/15/15
Posts: 12983
in
3/26/20 9:06 PM
3/23/06
Posts: 5450
The Closed Guard -

 

doesn't seem promising

 

To watch l8r

Edited: 3/26/20 9:21 PM
3/16/11
Posts: 7638
Strangleu -

A good question to ask now is, why would Team Apocalypse want to destroy the economy of America?

 

By team apocalypse, do you Donald Trump, the President of the United States? Cause he’s the one who ultimately decides. 
 

Edit: damn, 5 pages too late. 

3/26/20 9:21 PM
7/18/13
Posts: 206

God love the retards of the OG.

Constant entertainment from completely oblivious fucking idiots.

Get out there and lick some door handles with yer buddies!

3/26/20 9:23 PM
6/13/04
Posts: 11461
Neil Ferguson on Twitter.

1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.

2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.

3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.

4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).


TL:DR

Without harsh lockdown -- 500,000 deaths.

With lockdown...Much less.

SO NO DON'T OPEN THE COUNTRY UP.
3/26/20 9:31 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 10585
sanguine cynic - Neil Ferguson on Twitter.

1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.

2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.

3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.

4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).


TL:DR

Without harsh lockdown -- 500,000 deaths.

With lockdown...Much less.

SO NO DON'T OPEN THE COUNTRY UP.

To be fair there are other epidemiologists who disagree with him about that. Also from the article:

 

Ferguson’s change of tune comes days after Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta criticized the professor’s model.

“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” Gupta said, according to the Financial Times.

Professor Gupta led a team of researchers at Oxford in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.

If her model is accurate, fewer than one in a thousand who’ve been infected with COVID-19 become sick enough to need hospitalization, leaving the vast majority with mild cases or free of symptoms

3/26/20 9:33 PM
1/17/03
Posts: 17190
FETT_Lay'n'PrayNINJA -

We needed a 3rd thread on this with a false narrative headline...lol.

Dear OP,

 

Modeling is predictive, and constantly changes. The original modeling for the UK they did was based off the data they had back when the UK had mostly taken the stance of herd immunity. 

 

Unsurprisingly, when they changed that stance and started to take drastic measures for containment, this new model clearly show that their new strategy is working. 

 

So this is actually GREAT news for the UK. They didn't fuck up their old modeling or make errors in modeling. Things just changed in how the UK is handling it, for the better. 

What kind of a peice of shit fights all day to convince people that more lives will be lost? LOL

3/26/20 9:58 PM
2/25/06
Posts: 2521
GSpenn fan -

People in my state are freaking out and we have 41 people that have been hospitalized by Corona Virus....41 in the entire state. 

3 dead....in a stae where 700 die every year from the seasonal flu. 

its pure madness

In my county in Florida, with 1.4 million people, there have been 151 people that have tested positive for Corona Virus since the beginning of the outbreak. In this same county, there are 20 major hospitals and 20+ minor hospitals. This means at most, the big hospitals in the area have roughly a dozen patients.

Tampa General on its own has 1100 beds and BEFORE the pandemic operated on average 70+ ventilators. So, basically one hospital of the 41 in the area could/would be capable of handling every patient in the county.

I think it is time to move forward.

3/26/20 10:02 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 48883

What we do know:

Its getting worse.  It will get much worse before it gets better. ‘Merica will get through it. 

3/26/20 10:04 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 65382
player101 - 
GSpenn fan -

People in my state are freaking out and we have 41 people that have been hospitalized by Corona Virus....41 in the entire state. 

3 dead....in a stae where 700 die every year from the seasonal flu. 

its pure madness

In my county in Florida, with 1.4 million people, there have been 151 people that have tested positive for Corona Virus since the beginning of the outbreak. In this same county, there are 20 major hospitals and 20+ minor hospitals. This means at most, the big hospitals in the area have roughly a dozen patients.

Tampa General on its own has 1100 beds and BEFORE the pandemic operated on average 70+ ventilators. So, basically one hospital of the 41 in the area could/would be capable of handling every patient in the county.

I think it is time to move forward.


The number of cases in Florida just jumped 25% in 1 day and will probably continue to do so. Basing your response on the number of cases right now (as opposed to the number projected in the near future) is the kind of short-term thinking that gets you into real trouble.
3/26/20 10:09 PM
10/24/10
Posts: 2619
sanguine cynic - Neil Ferguson on Twitter.

1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.

2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.

3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.

4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).


TL:DR

Without harsh lockdown -- 500,000 deaths.

With lockdown...Much less.

SO NO DON'T OPEN THE COUNTRY UP.

Another Event 201 "flood the zone" victim ^

3/26/20 10:28 PM
11/28/08
Posts: 22969

So a virus became less deadly after measures were taken to treat and contain it?

3/26/20 10:36 PM
5/12/11
Posts: 1154
The Last Emperor -
Soup and Beer -

The models and predictions are all over the place.

This piece on CNBC uses soruces to claim a 4.5% CFR will millions dead.  Sounds like we won't know for sure until it's all over.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-may-be-deadlier-than-1918-flu-heres-how-it-stacks-up-to-other-pandemics.html

"May be deadlier than the 1918 flu!"

 

If you believe this sensationalist fear mongering bullshit you're gullible as fuck. Testing for COVID-19 is innacurate as fuck, false positives galore, and it's largely being used as a political agenda. Celebs left and right getting it with no symptoms? Bill Gates and his elite cronies held Event 201, a "pandemic excercise" specifically about coronaviruses right before the virus "pandemic" occurred. What are the fucking odds of that actually happening? There's always a fucking drill or excercise right before or during a false flag.

 

During this coronavirus excercise, they largely talked about how to "flood the zone" aka flood media with brainwashing techniques. This is no worse than any past decades of coronaviruses. Open the fucking country and open your fucking eyes while you're at it.

typing "fuck" a lot shows everyone that you are really smart and your opinion should be taken very seriously

3/26/20 10:41 PM
11/10/18
Posts: 6739
anthonyMI -

So a virus became less deadly after measures were taken to treat and contain it?

That shouldn’t make it less deadly. It should slow the rate of infection. Fact is you have to be pretty sick to get tested. So out of people it’s made sick enough to get tested it kills about 1.4% in the US. It may end up being slightly more deadly than the flu once we realize how many people really have it. Not a good thing, but probably not worth destroying the global economy.

3/26/20 11:29 PM
5/14/10
Posts: 7637
gr3asegun - 

God love the retards of the OG.

Constant entertainment from completely oblivious fucking idiots.

Get out there and lick some door handles with yer buddies!


Silly. Would you be out licking door handles if there wasn't a fake pandemic? I wouldn't. If that's something that you find entertaining you might want to keep it to yourself because most people would think it was weird. It's OK to be afraid. That's what they want and I don't expect a lot of people to see through it. Maybe next time there is a fake crisis you will remember who lies to you to keep you in a constant state of rage and fear.
3/26/20 11:42 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 49318
The Last Emperor - 

Let's all listen to the WHO and let them tell us how to survive a fake pandemic. A criminal organization, ran by Bill Gates' African buddy, who just happens to be a psychotic terrorist who was one of the highest ranking members of a regime responsible for killing and relocating more Africans than anyone in the world. Please tell me how to be healthy WHO and Bill Gates! What a fucking joke.

 


dude you are absolutely batshit crazy.   You have covid19 of the brain.   It's time to take your meds.

3/27/20 12:30 AM
4/2/08
Posts: 12057
Tomato Can - 
player101 - 
GSpenn fan -

People in my state are freaking out and we have 41 people that have been hospitalized by Corona Virus....41 in the entire state. 

3 dead....in a stae where 700 die every year from the seasonal flu. 

its pure madness

In my county in Florida, with 1.4 million people, there have been 151 people that have tested positive for Corona Virus since the beginning of the outbreak. In this same county, there are 20 major hospitals and 20+ minor hospitals. This means at most, the big hospitals in the area have roughly a dozen patients.

Tampa General on its own has 1100 beds and BEFORE the pandemic operated on average 70+ ventilators. So, basically one hospital of the 41 in the area could/would be capable of handling every patient in the county.

I think it is time to move forward.


The number of cases in Florida just jumped 25% in 1 day and will probably continue to do so. Basing your response on the number of cases right now (as opposed to the number projected in the near future) is the kind of short-term thinking that gets you into real trouble.

That's what is wrong with this entire hysteria. The number of cases might have jumped by 25% but the amount of tests given may have jumped by 100%. it's apples to oranges on total cases if the amount of testing available is also growing at a higher rate. That's why it's so ridiculous with all the US graphs that people keep posting from late February...very few tests available at the time compared to now.

3/27/20 8:36 AM
10/24/10
Posts: 2622
Soup and Beer -
The Last Emperor - 

Let's all listen to the WHO and let them tell us how to survive a fake pandemic. A criminal organization, ran by Bill Gates' African buddy, who just happens to be a psychotic terrorist who was one of the highest ranking members of a regime responsible for killing and relocating more Africans than anyone in the world. Please tell me how to be healthy WHO and Bill Gates! What a fucking joke.

 


dude you are absolutely batshit crazy.   You have covid19 of the brain.   It's time to take your meds.

Thanks "Soup and Beer". This is a really good argument against the facts presented in the video.

 

JK, you're another Event 201 brain zone flooded dumbass.