OtherGround Forums Oops, imperial college fucked up. Virus is not as

Edited: 3/27/20 11:12 PM
11/16/09
Posts: 4516

People are dumb. Yes, it's obviously going to be less lethal than people are reporting right now, they even say it themselves. No, it's not a joke. Italy is in crisis, because their health services are overwhelmed by people who need intensive care. Guess what, Italy has more ventilators and hospital beds per capita than the USA. 

If you need to go on a ventilator, it's something like 50/50 according to current mortality rates, that you live. The reason why Italy is experiencing hundreds of deaths a day, is because after the overflow, as in, when more people need ventilators than there are ventilators, the mortality rate is almost 100%.

That's going to happen here as well. This will also cause increased mortality in general from non-related issues, because of a lack of resources, if you come in with a non-related life threatening illness, guess what, they don't have a bed for you, or they don't have a ventilator for you. So good luck.

So is it as lethal as some reports might have made it sound like? Of course not, for every person who reports they are sick, maybe 10 more, or even more, have it and don't report it. However, people are still getting critically ill, hospitals are going to get overwhelmed, especially because this country has shit healthcare infrastructure.

3/27/20 11:12 PM
11/16/09
Posts: 4517
Willin -
sanguine cynic -
Willin - 
sanguine cynic -
GSpenn fan - 
Tomato Can - "Corona is nothing more than a 2nd flu season."

A significantly more contagious, more deadly flu season, which has no vaccine and is not already endemic in the population and therefore has potential to rapidly overflow our healthcare system.

I get that it's comforting to think this is no big deal. But it is.
 

except its not more deadly. not enough testing to actually confirm that. 

they use confirmed cases to actual deaths to estimate corona death rate

they use estimated cases to actual deaths to estimate Flu death rate

death rate numbers are a total sham


Let's imagine for the sake of argument that Covid19 was no more deadly than the flu (no scientist thinks that)..

It would still be worth shutting everything down for.

Why? So that it doesn't become endemic like the flu.

The flu kills 400,000 people worldwide per year. That's insane. And there is nothing we can do to end it, even with vaccines. Because it is so endemic. So there is no point in shutting everything down for.

But with Covid19 we have a chance it STOP it. So that it's not with us forever!

If the flu was new, we should also shut everything down for. But it's not.

Why not try and stop covid19, put an end it to so that it doesn't burden humanity for all of history like the flu does?

Wait, so to be clear do you think some portion of the population staying indoors is going to stop a highly contagious virus that can perhaps survive for days on surfaces?

 

If so that is an extremely childish and unrealistic fantasy. This has spread all over the world already. Do you really think we're fighting a battle of staying indoors to stop this virus? LOL at that nonsense. It's complete and utter fiction.


So what China did was an unrealistic fantasy?

Because they actually did stop it, except for random cases from incoming travelers, which they have now banned.

 

But even, if it proves impossible in the USA, at least we would have flattened the curve and now overwhelmed the health care system. Because that's what leads to the most deaths.

LOL at believing the propoganda of a communist shithole.

 

Ok, don't believe China, believe South Korea, Japan, Singapore, etc. Countries adjacent to ground zero, that have taken hard measures, similar to China took, and voila, they don't have 80-90k people who are sick enough with it to go to a hospital.

3/28/20 7:45 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 10601
Osbot -
Willin -
sanguine cynic -
Willin - 
sanguine cynic -
GSpenn fan - 
Tomato Can - "Corona is nothing more than a 2nd flu season."

A significantly more contagious, more deadly flu season, which has no vaccine and is not already endemic in the population and therefore has potential to rapidly overflow our healthcare system.

I get that it's comforting to think this is no big deal. But it is.
 

except its not more deadly. not enough testing to actually confirm that. 

they use confirmed cases to actual deaths to estimate corona death rate

they use estimated cases to actual deaths to estimate Flu death rate

death rate numbers are a total sham


Let's imagine for the sake of argument that Covid19 was no more deadly than the flu (no scientist thinks that)..

It would still be worth shutting everything down for.

Why? So that it doesn't become endemic like the flu.

The flu kills 400,000 people worldwide per year. That's insane. And there is nothing we can do to end it, even with vaccines. Because it is so endemic. So there is no point in shutting everything down for.

But with Covid19 we have a chance it STOP it. So that it's not with us forever!

If the flu was new, we should also shut everything down for. But it's not.

Why not try and stop covid19, put an end it to so that it doesn't burden humanity for all of history like the flu does?

Wait, so to be clear do you think some portion of the population staying indoors is going to stop a highly contagious virus that can perhaps survive for days on surfaces?

 

If so that is an extremely childish and unrealistic fantasy. This has spread all over the world already. Do you really think we're fighting a battle of staying indoors to stop this virus? LOL at that nonsense. It's complete and utter fiction.


So what China did was an unrealistic fantasy?

Because they actually did stop it, except for random cases from incoming travelers, which they have now banned.

 

But even, if it proves impossible in the USA, at least we would have flattened the curve and now overwhelmed the health care system. Because that's what leads to the most deaths.

LOL at believing the propoganda of a communist shithole.

 

Ok, don't believe China, believe South Korea, Japan, Singapore, etc. Countries adjacent to ground zero, that have taken hard measures, similar to China took, and voila, they don't have 80-90k people who are sick enough with it to go to a hospital.

What do you mean by hard measures? Looking at Singapore they still haven't implemented any kind of lockdown and people still go about their day to day life relatively normally. Where they came down hard was in closing borders and screening incoming travellers, something that Trump got called xenophobic for doing even a fraction of not long ago.

3/28/20 8:23 AM
9/13/08
Posts: 11224
player101 -
GSpenn fan -

People in my state are freaking out and we have 41 people that have been hospitalized by Corona Virus....41 in the entire state. 

3 dead....in a stae where 700 die every year from the seasonal flu. 

its pure madness

In my county in Florida, with 1.4 million people, there have been 151 people that have tested positive for Corona Virus since the beginning of the outbreak. In this same county, there are 20 major hospitals and 20+ minor hospitals. This means at most, the big hospitals in the area have roughly a dozen patients.

Tampa General on its own has 1100 beds and BEFORE the pandemic operated on average 70+ ventilators. So, basically one hospital of the 41 in the area could/would be capable of handling every patient in the county.

I think it is time to move forward.

I’m in Hillsborough County also. Live in the Westchase area. moved here from Philly area and love it here...
 

Baycare, Advant and HCA West systems also have similar capacities as well.....

 


 

3/28/20 9:04 AM
4/27/18
Posts: 2518
banco -
Strangleu -
sanguine cynic -
GSpenn fan - 
Tomato Can - "Corona is nothing more than a 2nd flu season."

A significantly more contagious, more deadly flu season, which has no vaccine and is not already endemic in the population and therefore has potential to rapidly overflow our healthcare system.

I get that it's comforting to think this is no big deal. But it is.

except its not more deadly. not enough testing to actually confirm that. 

they use confirmed cases to actual deaths to estimate corona death rate

they use estimated cases to actual deaths to estimate Flu death rate

death rate numbers are a total sham


Let's imagine for the sake of argument that Covid19 was no more deadly than the flu (no scientist thinks that)..

It would still be worth shutting everything down for.

Why? So that it doesn't become endemic like the flu.

The flu kills 400,000 people worldwide per year. That's insane. And there is nothing we can do to end it, even with vaccines. Because it is so endemic. So there is no point in shutting everything down for.

But with Covid19 we have a chance it STOP it. So that it's not with us forever!

If the flu was new, we should also shut everything down for. But it's not.

Why not try and stop covid19, put an end it to so that it doesn't burden humanity for all of history like the flu does?

yes some scientists think that.

The WSJ just made the argument its a tenth as deadly as the common flu.

The epidemiologists at the wsj?

The Oxford study.

stanford has a couple of epidemiologists

and the WSJ article

Ferguson made a mistake .

they guessed at what China’s numbers were and the imperial college published it

he didn’t have the benefit of more recent numbers

so now he’s dick tucking and saying deaths will be lower because of the lock downs after the Oxford report came out and “debunked” his report

regardless, it’s just a projection.

anyone can have a projection

the more current epidemiological studies are much more favorable but they have more current data and hence, should be more accurate

 

 

3/28/20 11:46 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 65392
"Looking at Singapore they still haven't implemented any kind of lockdown and people still go about their day to day life relatively normally."

Singapore was like South Korea and got way ahead of this thing with early testing and contact tracing. We didn't.
3/28/20 11:53 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 49341
Tomato Can - "Looking at Singapore they still haven't implemented any kind of lockdown and people still go about their day to day life relatively normally."

Singapore was like South Korea and got way ahead of this thing with early testing and contact tracing. We didn't.

Unfortunately our freedom and democracy will work against us in this crisis.  The virus doesn't give a fuck about the Constitution or the rights of the individual.  In fact it uses the individual as a weapon against society as a whole and brings down the individual too.  I fear it will have to get to the point where it's hell on Earth here and everyone is begging for an enforced quarantine. 

3/28/20 12:14 PM
5/13/11
Posts: 56985
Strangleu -
banco -
Strangleu -
sanguine cynic -
GSpenn fan - 
Tomato Can - "Corona is nothing more than a 2nd flu season."

A significantly more contagious, more deadly flu season, which has no vaccine and is not already endemic in the population and therefore has potential to rapidly overflow our healthcare system.

I get that it's comforting to think this is no big deal. But it is.

except its not more deadly. not enough testing to actually confirm that. 

they use confirmed cases to actual deaths to estimate corona death rate

they use estimated cases to actual deaths to estimate Flu death rate

death rate numbers are a total sham


Let's imagine for the sake of argument that Covid19 was no more deadly than the flu (no scientist thinks that)..

It would still be worth shutting everything down for.

Why? So that it doesn't become endemic like the flu.

The flu kills 400,000 people worldwide per year. That's insane. And there is nothing we can do to end it, even with vaccines. Because it is so endemic. So there is no point in shutting everything down for.

But with Covid19 we have a chance it STOP it. So that it's not with us forever!

If the flu was new, we should also shut everything down for. But it's not.

Why not try and stop covid19, put an end it to so that it doesn't burden humanity for all of history like the flu does?

yes some scientists think that.

The WSJ just made the argument its a tenth as deadly as the common flu.

The epidemiologists at the wsj?

The Oxford study.

stanford has a couple of epidemiologists

and the WSJ article

Ferguson made a mistake .

they guessed at what China’s numbers were and the imperial college published it

he didn’t have the benefit of more recent numbers

so now he’s dick tucking and saying deaths will be lower because of the lock downs after the Oxford report came out and “debunked” his report

regardless, it’s just a projection.

anyone can have a projection

the more current epidemiological studies are much more favorable but they have more current data and hence, should be more accurate

 

 

Ferguson made no mistakes. You just don't like his detailed explanation because you're desperate to try and call it a mistake. 

 

Ag the time of the 1st study, the UK stance was "herd immunity", which is completely fucking retarded as you can't accomplish herd immunity without a vaccine. 

 

So they did modeling based off herd immunity and showed the UK leaders exactly how bad they projected that path to be. 

 

Within 2 days of that study, the UK changed it's stance and started the social distancing measures. 

 

So they revised the modeling to try and calculate how it would look if they did take drastic measures....

 

And what do you know, it looked WAY better modeling off strict measures. 

 

Crazy!

3/28/20 12:35 PM
6/23/12
Posts: 17209
sanguine cynic -
Willin - 
sanguine cynic -
Willin - 
sanguine cynic -
GSpenn fan - 
Tomato Can - "Corona is nothing more than a 2nd flu season."

A significantly more contagious, more deadly flu season, which has no vaccine and is not already endemic in the population and therefore has potential to rapidly overflow our healthcare system.

I get that it's comforting to think this is no big deal. But it is.
 

except its not more deadly. not enough testing to actually confirm that. 

they use confirmed cases to actual deaths to estimate corona death rate

they use estimated cases to actual deaths to estimate Flu death rate

death rate numbers are a total sham


Let's imagine for the sake of argument that Covid19 was no more deadly than the flu (no scientist thinks that)..

It would still be worth shutting everything down for.

Why? So that it doesn't become endemic like the flu.

The flu kills 400,000 people worldwide per year. That's insane. And there is nothing we can do to end it, even with vaccines. Because it is so endemic. So there is no point in shutting everything down for.

But with Covid19 we have a chance it STOP it. So that it's not with us forever!

If the flu was new, we should also shut everything down for. But it's not.

Why not try and stop covid19, put an end it to so that it doesn't burden humanity for all of history like the flu does?

Wait, so to be clear do you think some portion of the population staying indoors is going to stop a highly contagious virus that can perhaps survive for days on surfaces?

 

If so that is an extremely childish and unrealistic fantasy. This has spread all over the world already. Do you really think we're fighting a battle of staying indoors to stop this virus? LOL at that nonsense. It's complete and utter fiction.


So what China did was an unrealistic fantasy?

Because they actually did stop it, except for random cases from incoming travelers, which they have now banned.

 

But even, if it proves impossible in the USA, at least we would have flattened the curve and now overwhelmed the health care system. Because that's what leads to the most deaths.

LOL at believing the propoganda of a communist shithole.

 


If you think China is a shithole, you haven't been there. Traveling from Shanghai or Hong Kong to NYC is like going from the Jetson's to the Flintstones.

Only someone who's never been in Shanghai would say this. It looks like an abandoned Olympic village from the late '80s.