OtherGround Forums So who would be trumps worst match up??

8/23/19 12:36 PM
1/14/07
Posts: 16512
Samoa - 
RdotC -
Samoa - 
RdotC -
Samoa - 

The wildcard is the economy. If there is a recession the battlefield is leveled. If no recession, I don’t see a Dem winning. It’s a long ways off though. Lots can change 


I really wonder where this confidence is coming from with the right.

Trump is polling markedly worse in the states he won in now and its not like he won by a significant margin the first time.

You think I’m “the right”?


Not singling you out at all... I just see a ton of people on here thinking Trump has this in the bag and in many cases will win by an even larger margin despite the data trending in the opposite direction.

More of an observation, not a directed statement.

Cheers.

Makes sense. It’s way too early to say for certainty how it would go and we learned polls don’t mean much so they just muddy the water. 

If the economy tanks I think Trump is looking at bad odds though. Only two presidents won re election in a recession I read. Obviously one is FDR, not sure who the other one was but I don’t see Trump bucking that trend. It’s supposed to be his strength so if it sinks 


We didn't really 'learn' that. Approval and election outcome polling are entirely different concepts.

Besides that, the states that led Trump to a win were almost universally within the margin of error. It just so happened that wiggle room in the data fell to Trump where it mattered most.

Also, to the other guy saying 'polls and data are never wrong'... it is incredibly dangerous to act as if we should just assume polls and data are wrong. They are correct infinitely more often than they are not.

It would be like starting to bet on a coin flip to end on its side because it happens once in 2500 flips instead of the 2499/2500 odds of it being heads or tails.
8/23/19 2:29 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 46828
RdotC - 
Samoa - 
RdotC -
Samoa - 
RdotC -
Samoa - 

The wildcard is the economy. If there is a recession the battlefield is leveled. If no recession, I don’t see a Dem winning. It’s a long ways off though. Lots can change 


I really wonder where this confidence is coming from with the right.

Trump is polling markedly worse in the states he won in now and its not like he won by a significant margin the first time.

You think I’m “the right”?


Not singling you out at all... I just see a ton of people on here thinking Trump has this in the bag and in many cases will win by an even larger margin despite the data trending in the opposite direction.

More of an observation, not a directed statement.

Cheers.

Makes sense. It’s way too early to say for certainty how it would go and we learned polls don’t mean much so they just muddy the water. 

If the economy tanks I think Trump is looking at bad odds though. Only two presidents won re election in a recession I read. Obviously one is FDR, not sure who the other one was but I don’t see Trump bucking that trend. It’s supposed to be his strength so if it sinks 


We didn't really 'learn' that. Approval and election outcome polling are entirely different concepts.

Besides that, the states that led Trump to a win were almost universally within the margin of error. It just so happened that wiggle room in the data fell to Trump where it mattered most.

Also, to the other guy saying 'polls and data are never wrong'... it is incredibly dangerous to act as if we should just assume polls and data are wrong. They are correct infinitely more often than they are not.

It would be like starting to bet on a coin flip to end on its side because it happens once in 2500 flips instead of the 2499/2500 odds of it being heads or tails.

Polling companies like Gallup had Hillary winning by a significant margin.  We learned that polling information that we had relied on before wasn't reliable.  Are you disagreeing w th this?

He unded up higher than the margin of error in plenty of swing states:

 

 

8/23/19 2:33 PM
9/27/07
Posts: 5722
RdotC -
Samoa - 
RdotC -
Samoa - 
RdotC -
Samoa - 

The wildcard is the economy. If there is a recession the battlefield is leveled. If no recession, I don’t see a Dem winning. It’s a long ways off though. Lots can change 


I really wonder where this confidence is coming from with the right.

Trump is polling markedly worse in the states he won in now and its not like he won by a significant margin the first time.

You think I’m “the right”?


Not singling you out at all... I just see a ton of people on here thinking Trump has this in the bag and in many cases will win by an even larger margin despite the data trending in the opposite direction.

More of an observation, not a directed statement.

Cheers.

Makes sense. It’s way too early to say for certainty how it would go and we learned polls don’t mean much so they just muddy the water. 

If the economy tanks I think Trump is looking at bad odds though. Only two presidents won re election in a recession I read. Obviously one is FDR, not sure who the other one was but I don’t see Trump bucking that trend. It’s supposed to be his strength so if it sinks 


We didn't really 'learn' that. Approval and election outcome polling are entirely different concepts.

Besides that, the states that led Trump to a win were almost universally within the margin of error. It just so happened that wiggle room in the data fell to Trump where it mattered most.

Also, to the other guy saying 'polls and data are never wrong'... it is incredibly dangerous to act as if we should just assume polls and data are wrong. They are correct infinitely more often than they are not.

It would be like starting to bet on a coin flip to end on its side because it happens once in 2500 flips instead of the 2499/2500 odds of it being heads or tails.

You have no idea what "infinitely" means...

8/23/19 2:58 PM
6/5/05
Posts: 41143
Seth Moulton
Edited: 8/23/19 3:36 PM
2/24/19
Posts: 305

If the Dems bring in someone like Oprah or Michelle, Trump will jettison Pence and replace with Haley for VP - that picks up enough moderate women’s votes added to what he already has to win again. People think Trump is crazy - what he really is is cunning, ruthless and smarter than most give him credit for. Plus, the $$$ are pouring in from donors and he is drawing huge (yuge) crowds. He is literally the real Teflon Don - how many times has some remark or action been trumpeted by the news as “the end of Trump?” He’s still there and his approval rating keeps going up. I think barring a total economic meltdown he wins again and convincingly. Just my .02

8/23/19 3:38 PM
9/23/07
Posts: 79437
Tulsi or Yang.

You have to have crossover centrist appeal.




The front runners like biden, bernie, pocahontas all are VERY polarizing.



If anyone who pushes socialism, open borders, reparations for slavery, etc wins the dem nominee I am voting trump.
8/23/19 3:39 PM
9/23/07
Posts: 79438
billyball2 - Biden can beat Trump.

Biden is "harmless" in most people's minds and isn't as off-putting or disgusting as Trump.

Trump is a rude, arrogant prick from NY who people are naturally repulsed and disgusted by.

Biden isn't.

Unless there's a VERY strong 3rd party candidate who rises up to split the Democrat vote Biden will win and it won't even be close...

LOL there is a 20 minute highlight reel of biden groping and smelling children.

Fuck no
Edited: 8/23/19 3:40 PM
4/11/14
Posts: 9366

Biden debating Trump will be a bloodbath, plus Biden’s dementia will only get worse between now and then.

Biden has been losing elections since the 80s, dude is an awful candidate but still the best the Dems can offer, obviously sad!

8/23/19 3:42 PM
7/15/17
Posts: 1219

The rock 

Edited: 8/23/19 3:47 PM
1/7/09
Posts: 14868

I'd vote for yang over trump. I dont agree with all of his policy ideas, but he is smart, not partisan, not an ideologue, he looks at facts vs feelings, he is not corrupt, he isnt a liar, he isnt there for self serving reasons, he is open minded and reasonable and willing to listen to and consider other points of view.

 

If its not yang I'm voting 3rd party. Trump loses me with his total disregard for environmental protection(a subject that for me has nothing to do with a debate over climate change, and everything to do with prioritizing our clean air/water/land/food and the protection of irreplaceable landscapes and wildlife).

8/23/19 4:11 PM
3/3/14
Posts: 2575

Reality

8/23/19 4:49 PM
1/14/07
Posts: 16516
Samoa - 
RdotC - 
Samoa - 
RdotC -
Samoa - 
RdotC -
Samoa - 

The wildcard is the economy. If there is a recession the battlefield is leveled. If no recession, I don’t see a Dem winning. It’s a long ways off though. Lots can change 


I really wonder where this confidence is coming from with the right.

Trump is polling markedly worse in the states he won in now and its not like he won by a significant margin the first time.

You think I’m “the right”?


Not singling you out at all... I just see a ton of people on here thinking Trump has this in the bag and in many cases will win by an even larger margin despite the data trending in the opposite direction.

More of an observation, not a directed statement.

Cheers.

Makes sense. It’s way too early to say for certainty how it would go and we learned polls don’t mean much so they just muddy the water. 

If the economy tanks I think Trump is looking at bad odds though. Only two presidents won re election in a recession I read. Obviously one is FDR, not sure who the other one was but I don’t see Trump bucking that trend. It’s supposed to be his strength so if it sinks 


We didn't really 'learn' that. Approval and election outcome polling are entirely different concepts.

Besides that, the states that led Trump to a win were almost universally within the margin of error. It just so happened that wiggle room in the data fell to Trump where it mattered most.

Also, to the other guy saying 'polls and data are never wrong'... it is incredibly dangerous to act as if we should just assume polls and data are wrong. They are correct infinitely more often than they are not.

It would be like starting to bet on a coin flip to end on its side because it happens once in 2500 flips instead of the 2499/2500 odds of it being heads or tails.

Polling companies like Gallup had Hillary winning by a significant margin.  We learned that polling information that we had relied on before wasn't reliable.  Are you disagreeing w th this?

He unded up higher than the margin of error in plenty of swing states:

 

 


So in this graphic,

The only statistically significant miss was Wisconsin.

PA/FL were well within the margin of error. The rest of the states went to the predicted winner.
8/23/19 4:50 PM
1/14/07
Posts: 16517
rubbermonkey - 
RdotC -
Samoa - 
RdotC -
Samoa - 
RdotC -
Samoa - 

The wildcard is the economy. If there is a recession the battlefield is leveled. If no recession, I don’t see a Dem winning. It’s a long ways off though. Lots can change 


I really wonder where this confidence is coming from with the right.

Trump is polling markedly worse in the states he won in now and its not like he won by a significant margin the first time.

You think I’m “the right”?


Not singling you out at all... I just see a ton of people on here thinking Trump has this in the bag and in many cases will win by an even larger margin despite the data trending in the opposite direction.

More of an observation, not a directed statement.

Cheers.

Makes sense. It’s way too early to say for certainty how it would go and we learned polls don’t mean much so they just muddy the water. 

If the economy tanks I think Trump is looking at bad odds though. Only two presidents won re election in a recession I read. Obviously one is FDR, not sure who the other one was but I don’t see Trump bucking that trend. It’s supposed to be his strength so if it sinks 


We didn't really 'learn' that. Approval and election outcome polling are entirely different concepts.

Besides that, the states that led Trump to a win were almost universally within the margin of error. It just so happened that wiggle room in the data fell to Trump where it mattered most.

Also, to the other guy saying 'polls and data are never wrong'... it is incredibly dangerous to act as if we should just assume polls and data are wrong. They are correct infinitely more often than they are not.

It would be like starting to bet on a coin flip to end on its side because it happens once in 2500 flips instead of the 2499/2500 odds of it being heads or tails.

You have no idea what "infinitely" means...


Would you prefer 'incredibly?'

'Much?'

'Significantly?'
8/23/19 6:49 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 46829
RdotC -
Samoa - 
RdotC - 
Samoa - 
RdotC -
Samoa - 
RdotC -
Samoa - 

The wildcard is the economy. If there is a recession the battlefield is leveled. If no recession, I don’t see a Dem winning. It’s a long ways off though. Lots can change 


I really wonder where this confidence is coming from with the right.

Trump is polling markedly worse in the states he won in now and its not like he won by a significant margin the first time.

You think I’m “the right”?


Not singling you out at all... I just see a ton of people on here thinking Trump has this in the bag and in many cases will win by an even larger margin despite the data trending in the opposite direction.

More of an observation, not a directed statement.

Cheers.

Makes sense. It’s way too early to say for certainty how it would go and we learned polls don’t mean much so they just muddy the water. 

If the economy tanks I think Trump is looking at bad odds though. Only two presidents won re election in a recession I read. Obviously one is FDR, not sure who the other one was but I don’t see Trump bucking that trend. It’s supposed to be his strength so if it sinks 


We didn't really 'learn' that. Approval and election outcome polling are entirely different concepts.

Besides that, the states that led Trump to a win were almost universally within the margin of error. It just so happened that wiggle room in the data fell to Trump where it mattered most.

Also, to the other guy saying 'polls and data are never wrong'... it is incredibly dangerous to act as if we should just assume polls and data are wrong. They are correct infinitely more often than they are not.

It would be like starting to bet on a coin flip to end on its side because it happens once in 2500 flips instead of the 2499/2500 odds of it being heads or tails.

Polling companies like Gallup had Hillary winning by a significant margin.  We learned that polling information that we had relied on before wasn't reliable.  Are you disagreeing w th this?

He unded up higher than the margin of error in plenty of swing states:

 

 


So in this graphic,

The only statistically significant miss was Wisconsin.

PA/FL were well within the margin of error. The rest of the states went to the predicted winner.

What is the stated margin of error?

8/23/19 11:04 PM
1/14/07
Posts: 16518
Samoa - 
RdotC -
Samoa - 
RdotC - 
Samoa - 
RdotC -
Samoa - 
RdotC -
Samoa - 

The wildcard is the economy. If there is a recession the battlefield is leveled. If no recession, I don’t see a Dem winning. It’s a long ways off though. Lots can change 


I really wonder where this confidence is coming from with the right.

Trump is polling markedly worse in the states he won in now and its not like he won by a significant margin the first time.

You think I’m “the right”?


Not singling you out at all... I just see a ton of people on here thinking Trump has this in the bag and in many cases will win by an even larger margin despite the data trending in the opposite direction.

More of an observation, not a directed statement.

Cheers.

Makes sense. It’s way too early to say for certainty how it would go and we learned polls don’t mean much so they just muddy the water. 

If the economy tanks I think Trump is looking at bad odds though. Only two presidents won re election in a recession I read. Obviously one is FDR, not sure who the other one was but I don’t see Trump bucking that trend. It’s supposed to be his strength so if it sinks 


We didn't really 'learn' that. Approval and election outcome polling are entirely different concepts.

Besides that, the states that led Trump to a win were almost universally within the margin of error. It just so happened that wiggle room in the data fell to Trump where it mattered most.

Also, to the other guy saying 'polls and data are never wrong'... it is incredibly dangerous to act as if we should just assume polls and data are wrong. They are correct infinitely more often than they are not.

It would be like starting to bet on a coin flip to end on its side because it happens once in 2500 flips instead of the 2499/2500 odds of it being heads or tails.

Polling companies like Gallup had Hillary winning by a significant margin.  We learned that polling information that we had relied on before wasn't reliable.  Are you disagreeing w th this?

He unded up higher than the margin of error in plenty of swing states:

 

 


So in this graphic,

The only statistically significant miss was Wisconsin.

PA/FL were well within the margin of error. The rest of the states went to the predicted winner.

What is the stated margin of error?


The graphic was a summary...

But you are likely going to find nothing smaller than a +/- 3 and more generally will see a +/-5.
8/23/19 11:09 PM
6/23/09
Posts: 7351

If the left can pull off this fake "economy is in the tank" narrative?  Delaney/Gabbard. possibly? Obama/Winfrey.

 

8/23/19 11:26 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 5348
billyball2 - Biden can beat Trump.

Biden is "harmless" in most people's minds and isn't as off-putting or disgusting as Trump.

Trump is a rude, arrogant prick from NY who people are naturally repulsed and disgusted by.

Biden isn't.

Unless there's a VERY strong 3rd party candidate who rises up to split the Democrat vote Biden will win and it won't even be close...

I stay away from political talk because it never ends well. That said, this is laughable. 

 

I'll be sure to bump this election night.

8/23/19 11:38 PM
12/26/05
Posts: 42931

Biden is the best bet at this point.

  Hes the best bet to recover some of the massive alienation the left has inspired in the middle of the US.

 

Pennsylvania (at this point right now)  appears to be a lock for Biden, meaning trumps electoral map would be considerably more difficult.

 

Tulsi or Yang could be tough, but they have zero chances to win the primary.

8/26/19 12:17 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 8529
Samoa - 
RdotC - 
Samoa - 
RdotC -
Samoa - 
RdotC -
Samoa - 

The wildcard is the economy. If there is a recession the battlefield is leveled. If no recession, I don’t see a Dem winning. It’s a long ways off though. Lots can change 


I really wonder where this confidence is coming from with the right.

Trump is polling markedly worse in the states he won in now and its not like he won by a significant margin the first time.

You think I’m “the right”?


Not singling you out at all... I just see a ton of people on here thinking Trump has this in the bag and in many cases will win by an even larger margin despite the data trending in the opposite direction.

More of an observation, not a directed statement.

Cheers.

Makes sense. It’s way too early to say for certainty how it would go and we learned polls don’t mean much so they just muddy the water. 

If the economy tanks I think Trump is looking at bad odds though. Only two presidents won re election in a recession I read. Obviously one is FDR, not sure who the other one was but I don’t see Trump bucking that trend. It’s supposed to be his strength so if it sinks 


We didn't really 'learn' that. Approval and election outcome polling are entirely different concepts.

Besides that, the states that led Trump to a win were almost universally within the margin of error. It just so happened that wiggle room in the data fell to Trump where it mattered most.

Also, to the other guy saying 'polls and data are never wrong'... it is incredibly dangerous to act as if we should just assume polls and data are wrong. They are correct infinitely more often than they are not.

It would be like starting to bet on a coin flip to end on its side because it happens once in 2500 flips instead of the 2499/2500 odds of it being heads or tails.

Polling companies like Gallup had Hillary winning by a significant margin.  We learned that polling information that we had relied on before wasn't reliable.  Are you disagreeing w th this?

He unded up higher than the margin of error in plenty of swing states:

 

 


Those are polling averages.

Can you find the most recent, prior to the election? I don't have time to find them all, but a quick search found Michigan to show Trump at +2 in the last poll that RCP listed.
8/27/19 12:44 AM
9/8/02
Posts: 23616
Any poll taken right now is utterly useless, nothing being discussed today will even be a topic in 2020. Waste of time.
8/27/19 12:53 AM
10/4/02
Posts: 23279
TFK_UGCTT_Sk1tzO420 -

Tulsi

First post nailed it. 

8/27/19 1:14 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 12094
It sure why nobody said it but it's Bloomberg. Will take enough votes away from Trump and any Democrat will win. Really any reasonable moderate independent will fuck Trump, the far left is voting left and far our numbers the far right. If that moderate takes the middle 15 Trump needs he is done....
8/27/19 1:27 AM
6/30/07
Posts: 56086

If Delaney got any exposure he'd be a problem for Trump.

8/27/19 1:35 AM
8/11/05
Posts: 8988
I can't see any Dem who won't get pushed around by Xi.

Seriously, Creepy Joe loves China and doesn't see them as a threat. Uncle Bernie the Socialist? Mayor Pete? Lol.
8/27/19 2:25 AM
5/22/17
Posts: 1331

Presidents are selected, never elected