Samoa -RdotC -Samoa -RdotC -Samoa -
The wildcard is the economy. If there is a recession the battlefield is leveled. If no recession, I don’t see a Dem winning. It’s a long ways off though. Lots can change
I really wonder where this confidence is coming from with the right.
Trump is polling markedly worse in the states he won in now and its not like he won by a significant margin the first time.
You think I’m “the right”?
Not singling you out at all... I just see a ton of people on here thinking Trump has this in the bag and in many cases will win by an even larger margin despite the data trending in the opposite direction.
More of an observation, not a directed statement.
Makes sense. It’s way too early to say for certainty how it would go and we learned polls don’t mean much so they just muddy the water.
If the economy tanks I think Trump is looking at bad odds though. Only two presidents won re election in a recession I read. Obviously one is FDR, not sure who the other one was but I don’t see Trump bucking that trend. It’s supposed to be his strength so if it sinks
We didn't really 'learn' that. Approval and election outcome polling are entirely different concepts.
Besides that, the states that led Trump to a win were almost universally within the margin of error. It just so happened that wiggle room in the data fell to Trump where it mattered most.
Also, to the other guy saying 'polls and data are never wrong'... it is incredibly dangerous to act as if we should just assume polls and data are wrong. They are correct infinitely more often than they are not.
It would be like starting to bet on a coin flip to end on its side because it happens once in 2500 flips instead of the 2499/2500 odds of it being heads or tails.