OtherGround Forums Special Counsel for Trump/Russia Megathread

Edited: 4/7/18 12:12 PM
12/5/17
Posts: 2111

“Friday’s sanctions also hit at least one wealthy oligarch who was reportedly close to the disgraced, short-lived former Trump Campaign Manager Paul Manafort. That oligarch is Oleg Deripaska. President Trump’s apparent message in targeting Deripaska is that corruption is indefensible – and he won’t defend it.”

Wonder if a potential pardon is off the table for the disgraced, short-lived former Trump Campaign Manager then.

4/7/18 12:14 PM
4/4/18
Posts: 11
Pumpkin Spice Lazarus -

^Haven’t followed that closely. Hard to process the claims of a Russian political figure and a Belarusian sex worker detained in Thailand. 

Worth looking into?

The video is absolutely worth a watch. The reason they want it taken down is because it has footage of said sex worker on Deripaska’s yacht.

4/7/18 12:50 PM
6/27/09
Posts: 14002

 

4/7/18 1:02 PM
4/24/07
Posts: 34424
Pumpkin Spice Lazarus - 

JUST IN: Paul Manafort's lawyer files a motion seeking to suppress evidence obtained from a storage unit, but not his residence. https://t.co/DRsgFD0eji pic.twitter.com/KrU2hhCKMu

— Chris Geidner (@chrisgeidner) April 7, 2018

Filed just before the deadline last night. Claims that the FBI worked with someone to open the storage unit without the proper authority. Evidence includes all sorts of material including some files on work with the Podesta Group. 

Doesn’t look promising as the guy is still currently employed by Manafort and listed as the occupant of the unit. 


Thats sort of a problem if your warrant only covers specific area's which they always do. If the warrant was only for his home then anything found else where without warrant is tainted.
Edited: 4/7/18 1:28 PM
4/4/18
Posts: 15
Hammerstein -
Pumpkin Spice Lazarus - 

^Haven’t followed that closely. Hard to process the claims of a Russian political figure and a Belarusian sex worker detained in Thailand. 

Worth looking into?


Did you watch the vid? He seems to lay it out pretty convincingly, though I obviously haven't confirmed his source info. He does provide enough info for people to check for themselves, at least to some extent. It's an interesting tie-in to the Manafort stuff, though not directly connected.

I agree. It's the weirdest "subplot" to this whole thing but this is pretty hilariously, clearly spelled out. Navalny has some serious balls by attempting to step into Magnitsky-level shit.

4/7/18 1:30 PM
12/5/17
Posts: 2112
daglord -

 

Won’t endorse the video — but at 1:45 they play a clip from an interview with Manafort that I was watching the other night. 

Pretty telling stuttering when he’s asked about Russian oligarch connections to the campaign — lol. If you watch the full interview he’s a smooth operator right until that question is asked and he melts.

”So to be clear — Mr. Trump has no financial relationships with any Russian oligarchs?”

”That’s what he said, uh... uh... that’s what I said... that’s uh... obviously what our position is”

Which isn’t to say something damning about Trump, but I bet he had that outstanding debt with Deripaska and his outreach to him floating through his head at that moment.

4/7/18 1:38 PM
12/5/17
Posts: 2113
Hammerstein -
Pumpkin Spice Lazarus - 

^Haven’t followed that closely. Hard to process the claims of a Russian political figure and a Belarusian sex worker detained in Thailand. 

Worth looking into?


Did you watch the vid? He seems to lay it out pretty convincingly, though I obviously haven't confirmed his source info. He does provide enough info for people to check for themselves, at least to some extent. It's an interesting tie-in to the Manafort stuff, though not directly connected.

Videos are like the plague for me. I can read and fact-check half-a-dozen articles in the time it takes me to watch a video. 

If one of you gents could give a brief overview of the claims made by the opposition figure and the girl I’d appreciate it and give an invisible vote up.

4/7/18 1:46 PM
4/4/18
Posts: 16
Pumpkin Spice Lazarus -
Hammerstein -
Pumpkin Spice Lazarus - 

^Haven’t followed that closely. Hard to process the claims of a Russian political figure and a Belarusian sex worker detained in Thailand. 

Worth looking into?


Did you watch the vid? He seems to lay it out pretty convincingly, though I obviously haven't confirmed his source info. He does provide enough info for people to check for themselves, at least to some extent. It's an interesting tie-in to the Manafort stuff, though not directly connected.

Videos are like the plague for me. I can read and fact-check half-a-dozen articles in the time it takes me to watch a video. 

If one of you gents could give a brief overview of the claims made by the opposition figure and the girl I’d appreciate it and give an invisible vote up.

Admittedly, this is a very deep well. But for the sake of documentation, lemmie see if I can sum it up.

4/7/18 1:50 PM
9/5/16
Posts: 4981
Pumpkin Spice Lazarus -
Ill Portents - PSL, what is the ratio of how 1) hilarious, 2) frightening, 3) depressing it is to you that more people want to discuss the ramifications of QAnon's latest bullshit than your compilation of facts on what could end up being the biggest political story of the century?

80% Frightening

15% hilarious

5% depressing

I sympathize.

100% jelly
4/7/18 1:53 PM
12/5/17
Posts: 2114
David@accu -
Pumpkin Spice Lazarus - 

JUST IN: Paul Manafort's lawyer files a motion seeking to suppress evidence obtained from a storage unit, but not his residence. https://t.co/DRsgFD0eji pic.twitter.com/KrU2hhCKMu

— Chris Geidner (@chrisgeidner) April 7, 2018

Filed just before the deadline last night. Claims that the FBI worked with someone to open the storage unit without the proper authority. Evidence includes all sorts of material including some files on work with the Podesta Group. 

Doesn’t look promising as the guy is still currently employed by Manafort and listed as the occupant of the unit. 


Thats sort of a problem if your warrant only covers specific area's which they always do. If the warrant was only for his home then anything found else where without warrant is tainted.

Apparently pre-warrant. The guy in question gave the FBI permission to enter the storage unit, take an account of what was inside, and then obtained a search warrant to take and review the materials. 

We’ll see. Judge will probably rule on it next week. Manafort’s defense is clearly competent and they’ve filed a lawsuit, filed motions to dismiss evidence, etc.

4/7/18 2:16 PM
12/5/17
Posts: 2115
DeFreeze -
Pumpkin Spice Lazarus -
Hammerstein -
Pumpkin Spice Lazarus - 

^Haven’t followed that closely. Hard to process the claims of a Russian political figure and a Belarusian sex worker detained in Thailand. 

Worth looking into?


Did you watch the vid? He seems to lay it out pretty convincingly, though I obviously haven't confirmed his source info. He does provide enough info for people to check for themselves, at least to some extent. It's an interesting tie-in to the Manafort stuff, though not directly connected.

Videos are like the plague for me. I can read and fact-check half-a-dozen articles in the time it takes me to watch a video. 

If one of you gents could give a brief overview of the claims made by the opposition figure and the girl I’d appreciate it and give an invisible vote up.

Admittedly, this is a very deep well. But for the sake of documentation, lemmie see if I can sum it up.

Thank you

4/7/18 2:58 PM
4/4/18
Posts: 17
DeFreeze -
Pumpkin Spice Lazarus -

Good time to introduce this Russian (in light of the sanctions detailed above):

| Oleg Deripaska |

Per Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleg_Deripaska

- Russian oligarch, aluminum magnate and philanthropist

- Founder and owner of one of the largest Russian industrial groups Basic Element

- Was president of En+ Group and United Company Rusal, the second largest aluminium company in the world, until 2018

Relevance to investigation:

- March 22, 2017 - AP Exclusive: Before Trump job, Manafort worked to aid Putin

"Manafort proposed in a confidential strategy plan as early as June 2005 that he would influence politics, business dealings and news coverage inside the United States, Europe and former Soviet republics to benefit President Vladimir Putin’s government, even as U.S.-Russia relations under Republican President George W. Bush grew worse.

Manafort pitched the plans to aluminum magnate Oleg Deripaska, a close Putin ally with whom Manafort eventually signed a $10 million annual contract beginning in 2006, according to interviews with several people familiar with payments to Manafort and business records obtained by the AP. Manafort and Deripaska maintained a business relationship until at least 2009, according to one person familiar with the work.

“We are now of the belief that this model can greatly benefit the Putin Government if employed at the correct levels with the appropriate commitment to success,” Manafort wrote in the 2005 memo to Deripaska. The effort, Manafort wrote, “will be offering a great service that can re-focus, both internally and externally, the policies of the Putin government.”

- ^ Deripaska wrote in The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal denying he signed a $10 million contract with Manafort, and they both denied that there was anything nefarious going on.  He also filed a libel lawsuit against AP for this story, but it 'was dismissed... on the groups that Deripaska had not disputed 'any material facts' in the story...'

- About the Oleg Deripaska Reference in the Mueller Memo - Wheeler takes a look at Mueller's response to a motion to dismiss his indictment on Manafort (here) which references Oleg Deripaska. She reasons that Mueller is likely "pre-authorizing" the direction he's taking the Manafort case without having to reveal any evidence yet in this ongoing battle with Paul's defense team:

"To sum up thus far: this reference to Deripaska is, to the best of my knowledge, the first explicit reference to him anywhere in the Manafort docket. It has no obvious place in a memo explaining why Mueller is authorized to prosecute Manafort for money laundering tied to the Party of Regions. But there it is, in the middle of a paragraph explaining why Manafort’s prosecution follows logically even from the original grant of authority, to say nothing of any unredacted or redacted bullet points explicitly including Manafort’s alleged and documented ties to Deripaska in the scope of Mueller’s authority. By including it in the memo, Mueller effectively includes Deripaska in the ongoing discussions of the things Judge Amy Berman Jackson will likely soon agree Mueller has the authority to prosecute.

It is, then, the most telling line in the entire memo, and the most clever. It uses the opportunity of this memo to pre-authorize where Mueller is going, without having to reveal what evidence Mueller is sitting on to go there.

Of course, where he’s going — to this oligarch and his crony’s role in Trump’s election — is very obviously tied to the case in chief, the Russian tampering in the US election."

- Paul Manafort: American Hustler -- Franklin Foer deals with the Deripaska/Manafort relationship thoroughly in this piece. He details the $100 million financing Oleg provided for an investment firm Manafort established in Ukraine & Russia.

Oleg later files motion in court trying to track down some of these funds that he wanted back, and the article portrays Manafort & Rick Gates as having essentially gotten the fuck out of dodge. It was a few years of dodging, some personal crises along the way, before Manafort tried to establish himself in U.S. politics again by reaching out to Donald Trump in regards to his campaign, and offering his services for free:

"But Manafort must have also believed that money would eventually come, just as it always had, from the influence he would wield in the campaign, and exponentially more so if Trump won. So might other favors and dispensations. These notions were very likely what led him to reach out to Oleg Deripaska almost immediately upon securing a post within the campaign, after having evaded him for years. Through one of his old deputies, a Ukrainian named Konstantin Kilimnik, he sent along press clippings that highlighted his new job. “How do we use to get whole,” Manafort emailed Kilimnik. “Has OVD operation seen?” Manafort’s spokesman has acknowledged that the initials refer to Oleg Vladimirovich Deripaska. In the course of the exchanges, Kilimnik expressed optimism that “we will get back to the original relationship” with the oligarch."

 

Here's Putin opponent, Alexei Navalny, talking a little more about Oleg Deripaska. Deripaska has been actively trying to scrub this video from the internet, threatening to ban Instagram and YouTube from Russia - http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-43058399

 

The prostitute referenced was immediately arrested after the video was released. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/02/world/asia/nastya-russia-trump-election.html

Summary:

 

Who made this video?

Alexei Navalny - A Russian lawyer and political activist. Regularly organizes protests and maintains a large audience through his website and Youtube channels. This is one of his shows Has made a career of investigating Russian corruption at the highest levels. This makes him a regular target of smear campaigns. Recently banned from running against Putin for previous fabricated and politically-motivated charges.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jan/09/russian-navalny-fake-photo-smear

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/26/russia-rejects-concerns-banning-alexei-navalny-elections

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny

4/7/18 3:01 PM
4/4/18
Posts: 18

- In one such attempt to smear Navalny, a group of sex workers were sent to storm his office and take pictures of themselves with everything and everyone.

- Upon investigating, Navalny found one of the girls' Instagram accounts. Turned out, she was Oleg Deripaska's mistress, Nastya Rybka.

- Even weirder, her Instagram account had a video of Oleg Deripaska discussing US foreign policy with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Prikhodko.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1628456/Video-Video-shows-Oleg-Deripaska-Sergei-Prikhodko-escort.html

4/7/18 3:01 PM
4/4/18
Posts: 19

- Even crazier, she wrote an entire book about it.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/andrey-kalikh/my-baby-knows-how-to-speed-up-judges-when-he-needs-to

 

- One reveal from the book was that Nastya Rybka's boss, "sex guru" Alex Leslie, regularly instructed his girls to record all their interactions with clients so he could review their techniques in seducation.

https://freepress.org/article/russian-trained-sex-spy-nastya-record-oligarch

 

- Alex Leslie travels with his girls all over the world advertising their "sex / seduction training" courses. One place they've advertised having one was... you guess it... Trump Tower.

http://static.atimes.com/uploads/2018/03/Russia-Alexander-Kirillov-Trump-Tower-Sex-Spy-July-2017-Instagram.jpg

 

- Given all this information, there's probably a lot of people who could consider them a big liability.

- First, Deripaska won an order from the Ust-Labinsk district court in his native Krasnodar region which ordered 14 Instagram posts and seven YouTube videos that 'breach his right to privacy' must be removed. Instagram caved.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5391733/Youtube-Instagram-face-ban-Russia-videos.html

 

- Next, after Leslie and Rybka advertised a course in Thailand catered to Russian tourists, Russia decided to send a spy. That spy coordinated with the police to raid the class and detain everyone.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/06/world/asia/nastya-rybka-thailand-charges.html

Edited: 4/7/18 3:24 PM
12/5/17
Posts: 2117

^Thanks for that. 

& as far as the relevancy to the 2016 election — she claims to have about 16 hours of recorded conversation between Deripaska and Sergei Prikhodko from what I’m reading, aye?

Edited: 4/7/18 3:40 PM
4/4/18
Posts: 20
Pumpkin Spice Lazarus -

^Thanks for that. 

& as far as the relevancy to the 2016 election — she claims to have about 16 hours of recorded conversation between Deripaska and Sergei Prikhodko from what I’m reading, aye?

It's likely an assortment of people. She frequently accompanied Deripaska on these types of trips, so there's likely a lot of people she's swept up in those recordings. She claims to have English-speaking people recorded as well discussing foreign policy, which raises some eyebrows given Manafort's proximity to Deripaska and the timeline of when these recordings took place.

4/7/18 4:03 PM
12/5/17
Posts: 2118
DeFreeze -
Pumpkin Spice Lazarus -

^Thanks for that. 

& as far as the relevancy to the 2016 election — she claims to have about 16 hours of recorded conversation between Deripaska and Sergei Prikhodko from what I’m reading, aye?

It's likely an assortment of people. She frequently accompanied Deripaska on these types of trips, so there's likely a lot of people she's swept up in those recordings. She claims to have English-speaking people recorded as well discussing foreign policy, which raises some eyebrows given Manafort's proximity to Deripaska and the timeline of when these recordings took place.

Got it. 

Could be Tiresias-video level. Well — she actually published one so she’s more credible than that. But I’m going to hold off until she makes some direct claims or releases some video.

4/7/18 4:08 PM
12/5/17
Posts: 2119

Anyone photo search her? Suddenly I’m veering off into non-oligarch territory with this one...

Might have to go after-dark.

4/7/18 4:26 PM
12/5/17
Posts: 2120

This is all bugged-the-fuck-out btw. I’m not sure how Navalny or Rybka are still alive if we take everything at face-value here. 

4/7/18 5:11 PM
12/5/17
Posts: 2122
Hammerstein -
Pumpkin Spice Lazarus - This is all bugged-the-fuck-out btw. I’m not sure how Navalny or Rybka are still alive if we take everything at face-value here.
That's what I was thinking. Maybe they just need to be more careful with having their fingerprints on it, since it's not entirely internal with this case?

It’s hard to get a sense of a lot of things coming out of Russia imo. 

In the case of the Steele dossier — you have high-level government officials giving Steele information. Clearly he’s the kind of guy who understands how intelligence works and can work to verify if it’s reliable or not. But even still — we’ve had former CIA officers chime in to claim that Steele’s memos have all of the hallmarks of misinformation consistent with Kremlin sources. The broad strokes are accurate (this person travelled to this place, met with this person), but the details (they discussed these specific things) are wrong. 

We potentially saw that with the Carter Page allegations (not verified either way at this point, but potentially). 

Then you get some direct signals intelligence captured with the Russian ambassador to the U.S. — perfect. There he is talking and we can verify that it’s his voice. 

Well — but first we have to consider that he likely anticipates being bugged, and feeds false information at all times. He himself is as savy as anyone from the CIA, so we can’t even trust these recordings without further confirmation, which might not be possible. 

In this case we have Navalny whose political motivations I can’t be sure of just yet. & we have a woman who has had a relationship with Deripaska and other high-level operators. Her self-promotion and whatnot make her a bit unreliable at this point, and for all I know she’s directly working for the Kremlin to further lead the American media down the wrong path, etc. 

I’ve just kept distance from the story for all of these reasons, but if she coughs up some relevant evidence I’ll be interested. 

4/7/18 5:33 PM
12/5/17
Posts: 2123

^ Right. I won’t go all CT and start suggesting it’s a ‘psy-op’, but it’s not something I can properly evaluate at this point. 

I am admittedly ignorant of Navalny though, so I might be too skeptical of him. 

4/7/18 5:41 PM
12/5/17
Posts: 2124

More on really well-done misinformation like I described with Steele. 

& I’m not suggesting that the Steele dossier is bullshit. He himself estimated it to be 70-90% accurate. None of the memos are a problem when we understand it’s raw intelligence. He clearly had information that proved to be generally correct long before anyone else (Manafort for instance). 

But imagine that you wanted to really mislead some folks and had the perfect outlet to spread the information:

You know that Trump was in Moscow on these dates... that he visited this hotel and spoke with these people... you know a few details that have never been reported and won’t be commonly known, but they are plausible and can potentially be verified... so you feed those details which help to legitimize everything... 

then you include a salacious detail — he fucked hookers and had them piss on a bed the Obamas slept on!

That’s how it functions best. Are we ever going to be able to verify that? Probably not. But the claim has definitely made a real impact. 

4/7/18 6:20 PM
12/5/17
Posts: 2125

Anyway — that’s veering off track a bit. 

This criminal investigation is very real, and we can follow it clearly without all of the political noise. & we can even reasonably use source information to fairly speculate on where it’s heading. 

4/7/18 6:28 PM
12/5/17
Posts: 2126

The Oleg Deripaska/Manafort connection is one of a few legitimate collusion angles. There’s motive. There’s circumstantial evidence. Maybe we’ll see the pieces put together. 

So for anyone reading who found the Manafort story, his outreach to Trump, and then his communications to Deripaska to be a ‘whoa!’ moment — the Papadopoulos stuff is worth a closer look too. 

- Timeline of communications (Wheeler)

- Speech and Email Release: The Three Public Statement Signals Tied to Russia’s Dirt-as-Emails (Wheeler)

4/8/18 7:59 AM
12/5/17
Posts: 2130

Media Warns of ‘Russian Bots’ Despite Primary Source’s Disavowal

Good article on how media outlets keep overblowing the Russian bot thing, despite @selectedwisdom (primary researcher and founder of the dashboard tracking their activity) cautioning them not to. 

That’s Clint Watts, former FBI agent/testified to the Senate intelligence panel about Russian disinformation last year, who would have made the Twitter feed list here for his writing if he wasn’t wearing a stupid fucking “Dance like Russia isn’t watching” shirt in his profile picture.