I have no idea who is really trending up, just a few observations:
- Betting odds have Trump closing the gap rapidly withn the past week. Exacty a week ago, Biden was -220 and Trump +210. Today it is -160 and +135. Not sure how much this means in the overall picture. While the odds usually reflect the current chances, it could also mean that a lot of people have been putting money down Trump.
- Record numbers for early turnout has me worried, this definitely benefits Biden as the Dems are crushig it with the early votes. This is a legitimate concern. I also don't trust the mail-in ballot scheme which the Dems will undoubtly try to cheat with it.
- Voter registration supposedly favor Trump, hopefully this means that they will come out in full force on election day.
- A huge factor could be how the lamestream media and big tech will be able to muzzle the Hunter Biden story as they've been doing. Some people are saying that Giuliani and co. are slow-playing the leakage, lets hope for a bombshell 10 days before as Giuliani promises. This would all over the news and grounds for immediate impeachment if this was done by the Trump side. So biased and unfair.
- A huge spike in Covid numbers between now and the Nov.3 would not bold well for Trump. I don't see it but it could happen.
My take is that Biden is still favored on paper and they should be encouraged by the huge early voting turnout. I still think Trump has a decent chance of wininng, better than what most in the public give him credit for. I think that he will need some help from the Hunter Biden case to gain traction though.
So 3 major things to keep an eye on for the next couple of weeks are continuing early voter turnout, covid numbers and most importantly for Trump; the Hunter Biden story whether they can break this case open to the mainstream media.
Fair assessment. I am also bareish on Trump's chances, largely because the polling data has been so wildly yet consistently against him this entire cycle. I admit there is true bias in polling that favor Democrats, but its subtle, 3-5 points. So when I see poll after poll that has Trump down 11 in PA, down 9 in FL, and tied in Texas and Arizona. My conclusion is, Trump is losing this race. Perhaps not by 11 and 9 points, but he will lose those states, perhaps narrowly. I still think Trump loses many battle ground states narrowly on his way to a bad electoral loss. There just isn't a ton of time left.
However, I have stated if I see the battle ground polls start to tighten within the margin of error, I will re-calculate my views. Because, if Trump is within 1-3 points of Biden in places like Florida, Michigan and PA, I think that points to real trouble for Biden...
I am beginning to see a few outlier polls that have Trump doing much better in Florida, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Without question he is closing the gap. The question for me now, is there enough time to win the race.
Trump is a great closer. Depending on the last debate, which I believe will feature a far sharper Trump armed with devastating Hunter info, a lot can happen. If Trump is able to seriously land haymakers on Joe and call into question his abuse of power. Then those close races could tilt Trump.
Also, Trump has just scrapped together a decent chunk of money to start airing his "closing statement ad." A slickly edited and highly effective television ad that he is targeting critical battleground states with. Trump has withdrawn a lot of ad money from almost everywhere, so his message has been totally dwarfed by Biden's. However, that's about to change. Places that haven't seen a good Trump ad in sometime, will begin to see some good ones.
In races decided within the margin of error, these things can sway independents back to the incumbent.
60/40 Biden at the moment.