OtherGround Forums Trump ahead controlling for Shy Trumpers + Enthusi

12 days ago
5/18/10
Posts: 14061
..enthusiasm

My brief analysis has Trump winning 285 vs 253 based on three things:

1. Most recent FiveThirtyEight average State polls
2. Adjustment for Shy Trumpers
3. Adjustment for voter enthusiasm

Studies show 11.7% of Republicans are not telling pollsters their true voting intention. I'm assuming therefore that these voters are voting Trump but not showing in the polls. For Dems the number is 5.4%, you could make the argument that these people are voting Trump too since but I'm not relying on that.

Additionally, 66% of Trump supporters are "strong supporters", while only 46% of Biden supporters are "strong supporters". Here I'm assuming strong supporters are 10% more likely to vote which I think is actually a conservative assumption.

With those adjustments, Trump is winning 285 vs 253

State breakdown:


State Biden Trump Biden Adj Trump Adj Winner
 Alabama 38.8 56.5 36.7 61.8 Trump
 Alaska 43.9 48.8 41.5 53.4 Trump
 Arizona 49 45.1 46.4 49.3 Trump
 Arkansas 40.4 54.5 38.2 59.6 Trump
 California 62.3 31 58.9 33.9 Biden
 Colorado 53.1 40 50.2 43.8 Biden
 Connecticut 59.1 33.3 55.9 36.4 Biden
D. of Columbia 87.1 8.6 82.4 9.4 Biden
 Delaware 59.7 33.2 56.5 36.3 Biden
 Florida 49.1 45.1 46.4 49.3 Trump
 Georgia 47.9 46.6 45.3 51.0 Trump
 Hawaii 63.1 30.2 59.7 33.0 Biden
 Idaho 37.1 58 35.1 63.5 Trump
 Illinois 56.5 38 53.4 41.6 Biden
 Indiana 41.5 51.3 39.3 56.1 Trump
 Iowa 47.8 47.6 45.2 52.1 Trump
 Kansas 43.4 50.1 41.1 54.8 Trump
 Kentucky 38.9 56.6 36.8 61.9 Trump
 Louisiana 39.1 53.7 37.0 58.7 Trump
 Maine 54.1 39.3 51.2 43.0 Biden
 Maryland 62.9 30.4 59.5 33.3 Biden
 Massachusetts 66.6 28.2 63.0 30.9 Biden
 Michigan 50.7 42.8 48.0 46.8 Biden
 Minnesota 50.7 41.6 48.0 45.5 Biden
 Mississippi 40.1 53.7 37.9 58.7 Trump
 Missouri 44.9 51.1 42.5 55.9 Trump
 Montana 43.9 52.1 41.5 57.0 Trump
 Nebraska 44.3 50.6 41.9 55.4 Trump
 Nevada 49.6 43.3 46.9 47.4 Trump
 New Hampshire 53.8 44.2 50.9 48.4 Biden
 New Jersey 56.3 36.4 53.3 39.8 Biden
 New Mexico 53.9 40.5 51.0 44.3 Biden
 New York 62.5 31.4 59.1 34.4 Biden
 North Carolina 49.1 45.9 46.4 50.2 Trump
 North Dakota 37 57.1 35.0 62.5 Trump
 Ohio 46.9 47.1 44.4 51.5 Trump
 Oklahoma 36.4 57.5 34.4 62.9 Trump
 Oregon 57.4 37.4 54.3 40.9 Biden
 Pennsylvania 50.8 44 48.1 48.1 Trump
 Rhode Island 63.9 32.2 60.4 35.2 Biden
 South Carolina 43.4 50.7 41.1 55.5 Trump
 South Dakota 39.8 54.8 37.7 60.0 Trump
 Tennessee 40.8 54.4 38.6 59.5 Trump
 Texas 47.2 48.6 44.7 53.2 Trump
 Utah 39.6 51.2 37.5 56.0 Trump
 Vermont 63.3 29.6 59.9 32.4 Biden
 Virginia 53.6 40.1 50.7 43.9 Biden
 Washington 59.5 34.2 56.3 37.4 Biden
 West Virginia 36.1 58.8 34.2 64.3 Trump
 Wisconsin 50.9 43.1 48.2 47.2 Biden
 Wyoming 29.8 56.3 28.2 61.6 Trump

Sauce:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-28/new-study-suggests-polls-are-missing-shy-trump-voters

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/08/13/the-2020-trump-biden-matchup/
12 days ago
5/18/10
Posts: 14062
That table has parsed terribly.

Bascially its:
-First column state
-Second Biden unadjusted poll
-Third Trump unadjusted poll
-Fourth Biden adjusted
-Fifth Trump adjusted
-Sixth Winner
12 days ago
12/17/09
Posts: 948

I think Trump takes Minnesota this time. 

11 days ago
5/18/10
Posts: 14065
Type R - 

I think Trump takes Minnesota this time. 


I see it very close after adjustment

Minnesota Biden 48.0 - 45.5 Trump
11 days ago
4/12/04
Posts: 8333
ryunz - That table has parsed terribly.

Bascially its:
-First column state
-Second Biden unadjusted poll
-Third Trump unadjusted poll
-Fourth Biden adjusted
-Fifth Trump adjusted
-Sixth Winner

you should put commas as delimiters so you can copy and paste it in a spreadsheet ;) (I deserve a VU)

State, Biden, Trump, Biden Adj, Trump Adj, Winner
Alabama, 38.8, 56.5, 36.7, 61.8, Trump
Alaska, 43.9, 48.8, 41.5, 53.4, Trump
Arizona, 49, 45.1, 46.4, 49.3, Trump
Arkansas, 40.4, 54.5, 38.2, 59.6, Trump
California, 62.3, 31, 58.9, 33.9, Biden
Colorado, 53.1, 40, 50.2, 43.8, Biden
Connecticut, 59.1, 33.3, 55.9, 36.4, Biden
D. of Columbia, 87.1, 8.6, 82.4, 9.4, Biden
Delaware, 59.7, 33.2, 56.5, 36.3, Biden
Florida, 49.1, 45.1, 46.4, 49.3, Trump
Georgia, 47.9, 46.6, 45.3, 51.0, Trump
Hawaii, 63.1, 30.2, 59.7, 33.0, Biden
Idaho, 37.1, 58, 35.1, 63.5, Trump
Illinois, 56.5, 38, 53.4, 41.6, Biden
Indiana, 41.5, 51.3, 39.3, 56.1, Trump
Iowa, 47.8, 47.6, 45.2, 52.1, Trump
Kansas, 43.4, 50.1, 41.1, 54.8, Trump
Kentucky, 38.9, 56.6, 36.8, 61.9, Trump
Louisiana, 39.1, 53.7, 37.0, 58.7, Trump
Maine, 54.1, 39.3, 51.2, 43.0, Biden
Maryland, 62.9, 30.4, 59.5, 33.3, Biden
Massachusetts, 66.6, 28.2, 63.0, 30.9, Biden
Michigan, 50.7, 42.8, 48.0, 46.8, Biden
Minnesota, 50.7, 41.6, 48.0, 45.5, Biden
Mississippi, 40.1, 53.7, 37.9, 58.7, Trump
Missouri, 44.9, 51.1, 42.5, 55.9, Trump
Montana, 43.9, 52.1, 41.5, 57.0, Trump
Nebraska, 44.3, 50.6, 41.9, 55.4, Trump
Nevada, 49.6, 43.3, 46.9, 47.4, Trump
New Hampshire, 53.8, 44.2, 50.9, 48.4, Biden
New Jersey, 56.3, 36.4, 53.3, 39.8, Biden
New Mexico, 53.9, 40.5, 51.0, 44.3, Biden
New York, 62.5, 31.4, 59.1, 34.4, Biden
North Carolina, 49.1, 45.9, 46.4, 50.2, Trump
North Dakota, 37, 57.1, 35.0, 62.5, Trump
Ohio, 46.9, 47.1, 44.4, 51.5, Trump
Oklahoma, 36.4, 57.5, 34.4, 62.9, Trump
Oregon, 57.4, 37.4, 54.3, 40.9, Biden
Pennsylvania, 50.8, 44, 48.1, 48.1, Trump
Rhode Island, 63.9, 32.2, 60.4, 35.2, Biden
South Carolina, 43.4, 50.7, 41.1, 55.5, Trump
South Dakota, 39.8, 54.8, 37.7, 60.0, Trump
Tennessee, 40.8, 54.4, 38.6, 59.5, Trump
Texas, 47.2, 48.6, 44.7, 53.2, Trump
Utah, 39.6, 51.2, 37.5, 56.0, Trump
Vermont, 63.3, 29.6, 59.9, 32.4, Biden
Virginia, 53.6, 40.1, 50.7, 43.9, Biden
Washington, 59.5, 34.2, 56.3, 37.4, Biden
West Virginia, 36.1, 58.8, 34.2, 64.3, Trump
Wisconsin, 50.9, 43.1, 48.2, 47.2, Biden
Wyoming, 29.8, 56.3, 28.2, 61.6, Trump

Edited: 11 days ago
4/12/04
Posts: 8334

@ryunz , i agree it is going to be close. I don't think it is going to be landside, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did. I am pretty certain he won't win the popular vote. However, I probably predict that Trump will claim that he won by landslide to which I would respond "STFU, you won. Take a W and get back to business"

EDIT: I noticed Pennsylvania is a tie in your adjustments

11 days ago
1/14/07
Posts: 14002

I'm really hoping Biden loses Pennsylvania. I've heard if he does lose it then he has a hard road to 270, that was a few months ago so I'm not sure if the math is still saying that. 

11 days ago
5/18/10
Posts: 14066
Kona Silat -

@ryunz , i agree it is going to be close. I don't think it is going to be landside, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did. I am pretty certain he won't win the popular vote. However, I probably predict that Trump will claim that he won by landslide to which I would respond "STFU, you won. Take a W and get back to business"

EDIT: I noticed Pennsylvania is a tie in your adjustments

It's a tie when rounded but marginal Trump unrounded 

11 days ago
4/24/07
Posts: 44287
Both of you are wrong on Michigan. It's staying Red. We just stripped our democrat governor of her power to lockdown the state. I see Trump signs all over the place. I don't see a single county that went to Trump in 2016 changing. He didn't hurt us with anything. It was our governor that locked us down and fucked up our economy. We might even go deeper red. Trump for the most part has been great for Michigan.
11 days ago
4/12/04
Posts: 8336
David@accu - Both of you are wrong on Michigan. It's staying Red. We just stripped our democrat governor of her power to lockdown the state. I see Trump signs all over the place. I don't see a single county that went to Trump in 2016 changing. He didn't hurt us with anything. It was our governor that locked us down and fucked up our economy. We might even go deeper red. Trump for the most part has been great for Michigan.

But isn't the governor having high approval rating?

11 days ago
1/18/03
Posts: 3931
Kona Silat - 
David@accu - Both of you are wrong on Michigan. It's staying Red. We just stripped our democrat governor of her power to lockdown the state. I see Trump signs all over the place. I don't see a single county that went to Trump in 2016 changing. He didn't hurt us with anything. It was our governor that locked us down and fucked up our economy. We might even go deeper red. Trump for the most part has been great for Michigan.

But isn't the governor having high approval rating?


Not sure (can correct me if I'm wrong), but if this is the governor that pulled her mother out of the old folks home prior to putting covid patients into said homes and she has high approval ratings, that just tells me that the average Michiganer has the IQ of a turnip.
11 days ago
7/27/04
Posts: 26097
David@accu - Both of you are wrong on Michigan. It's staying Red. We just stripped our democrat governor of her power to lockdown the state. I see Trump signs all over the place. I don't see a single county that went to Trump in 2016 changing. He didn't hurt us with anything. It was our governor that locked us down and fucked up our economy. We might even go deeper red. Trump for the most part has been great for Michigan.

That's what Tim Cast said also recently

 

11 days ago
4/24/07
Posts: 44288
Kona Silat - 
David@accu - Both of you are wrong on Michigan. It's staying Red. We just stripped our democrat governor of her power to lockdown the state. I see Trump signs all over the place. I don't see a single county that went to Trump in 2016 changing. He didn't hurt us with anything. It was our governor that locked us down and fucked up our economy. We might even go deeper red. Trump for the most part has been great for Michigan.

But isn't the governor having high approval rating?


Yeah and Biden is 40 points ahead.
11 days ago
1/6/20
Posts: 1060

I agree with the general premise however, it's not that simple as there are other factors involved. 

A couple which I'm afraid of are record voter turnout and the covid situation. Trump supporters will vote no matter what but new voters would mostly benefit Biden imo. These are the Democrats that have been too lazy to vote in the past. 

Secondly, if Corona picks up drastically between now and the election.  Trump is on record saying that he believes that the country has turned the corner on this issue, I think that's rather bold statement to make heading into cold season. 

So yeah, it's going to be close imo.  Not a landslide victory by anyone. 

 

 

11 days ago
3/18/02
Posts: 97003

not sure how an anti fracker wins PA

11 days ago
7/31/09
Posts: 7167
ryunz - ..enthusiasm

My brief analysis has Trump winning 285 vs 253 based on three things:

1. Most recent FiveThirtyEight average State polls
2. Adjustment for Shy Trumpers
3. Adjustment for voter enthusiasm

Studies show 11.7% of Republicans are not telling pollsters their true voting intention. I'm assuming therefore that these voters are voting Trump but not showing in the polls. For Dems the number is 5.4%, you could make the argument that these people are voting Trump too since but I'm not relying on that.

Additionally, 66% of Trump supporters are "strong supporters", while only 46% of Biden supporters are "strong supporters". Here I'm assuming strong supporters are 10% more likely to vote which I think is actually a conservative assumption.

With those adjustments, Trump is winning 285 vs 253

State breakdown:


State Biden Trump Biden Adj Trump Adj Winner
 Alabama 38.8 56.5 36.7 61.8 Trump
 Alaska 43.9 48.8 41.5 53.4 Trump
 Arizona 49 45.1 46.4 49.3 Trump
 Arkansas 40.4 54.5 38.2 59.6 Trump
 California 62.3 31 58.9 33.9 Biden
 Colorado 53.1 40 50.2 43.8 Biden
 Connecticut 59.1 33.3 55.9 36.4 Biden
D. of Columbia 87.1 8.6 82.4 9.4 Biden
 Delaware 59.7 33.2 56.5 36.3 Biden
 Florida 49.1 45.1 46.4 49.3 Trump
 Georgia 47.9 46.6 45.3 51.0 Trump
 Hawaii 63.1 30.2 59.7 33.0 Biden
 Idaho 37.1 58 35.1 63.5 Trump
 Illinois 56.5 38 53.4 41.6 Biden
 Indiana 41.5 51.3 39.3 56.1 Trump
 Iowa 47.8 47.6 45.2 52.1 Trump
 Kansas 43.4 50.1 41.1 54.8 Trump
 Kentucky 38.9 56.6 36.8 61.9 Trump
 Louisiana 39.1 53.7 37.0 58.7 Trump
 Maine 54.1 39.3 51.2 43.0 Biden
 Maryland 62.9 30.4 59.5 33.3 Biden
 Massachusetts 66.6 28.2 63.0 30.9 Biden
 Michigan 50.7 42.8 48.0 46.8 Biden
 Minnesota 50.7 41.6 48.0 45.5 Biden
 Mississippi 40.1 53.7 37.9 58.7 Trump
 Missouri 44.9 51.1 42.5 55.9 Trump
 Montana 43.9 52.1 41.5 57.0 Trump
 Nebraska 44.3 50.6 41.9 55.4 Trump
 Nevada 49.6 43.3 46.9 47.4 Trump
 New Hampshire 53.8 44.2 50.9 48.4 Biden
 New Jersey 56.3 36.4 53.3 39.8 Biden
 New Mexico 53.9 40.5 51.0 44.3 Biden
 New York 62.5 31.4 59.1 34.4 Biden
 North Carolina 49.1 45.9 46.4 50.2 Trump
 North Dakota 37 57.1 35.0 62.5 Trump
 Ohio 46.9 47.1 44.4 51.5 Trump
 Oklahoma 36.4 57.5 34.4 62.9 Trump
 Oregon 57.4 37.4 54.3 40.9 Biden
 Pennsylvania 50.8 44 48.1 48.1 Trump
 Rhode Island 63.9 32.2 60.4 35.2 Biden
 South Carolina 43.4 50.7 41.1 55.5 Trump
 South Dakota 39.8 54.8 37.7 60.0 Trump
 Tennessee 40.8 54.4 38.6 59.5 Trump
 Texas 47.2 48.6 44.7 53.2 Trump
 Utah 39.6 51.2 37.5 56.0 Trump
 Vermont 63.3 29.6 59.9 32.4 Biden
 Virginia 53.6 40.1 50.7 43.9 Biden
 Washington 59.5 34.2 56.3 37.4 Biden
 West Virginia 36.1 58.8 34.2 64.3 Trump
 Wisconsin 50.9 43.1 48.2 47.2 Biden
 Wyoming 29.8 56.3 28.2 61.6 Trump

Sauce:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-28/new-study-suggests-polls-are-missing-shy-trump-voters

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/08/13/the-2020-trump-biden-matchup/

Can you screenshot where you input the data and post the screenshot on an image hosting site?

11 days ago
5/18/10
Posts: 14067
robbie380 -
ryunz - ..enthusiasm

My brief analysis has Trump winning 285 vs 253 based on three things:

1. Most recent FiveThirtyEight average State polls
2. Adjustment for Shy Trumpers
3. Adjustment for voter enthusiasm

Studies show 11.7% of Republicans are not telling pollsters their true voting intention. I'm assuming therefore that these voters are voting Trump but not showing in the polls. For Dems the number is 5.4%, you could make the argument that these people are voting Trump too since but I'm not relying on that.

Additionally, 66% of Trump supporters are "strong supporters", while only 46% of Biden supporters are "strong supporters". Here I'm assuming strong supporters are 10% more likely to vote which I think is actually a conservative assumption.

With those adjustments, Trump is winning 285 vs 253

State breakdown:


State Biden Trump Biden Adj Trump Adj Winner
 Alabama 38.8 56.5 36.7 61.8 Trump
 Alaska 43.9 48.8 41.5 53.4 Trump
 Arizona 49 45.1 46.4 49.3 Trump
 Arkansas 40.4 54.5 38.2 59.6 Trump
 California 62.3 31 58.9 33.9 Biden
 Colorado 53.1 40 50.2 43.8 Biden
 Connecticut 59.1 33.3 55.9 36.4 Biden
D. of Columbia 87.1 8.6 82.4 9.4 Biden
 Delaware 59.7 33.2 56.5 36.3 Biden
 Florida 49.1 45.1 46.4 49.3 Trump
 Georgia 47.9 46.6 45.3 51.0 Trump
 Hawaii 63.1 30.2 59.7 33.0 Biden
 Idaho 37.1 58 35.1 63.5 Trump
 Illinois 56.5 38 53.4 41.6 Biden
 Indiana 41.5 51.3 39.3 56.1 Trump
 Iowa 47.8 47.6 45.2 52.1 Trump
 Kansas 43.4 50.1 41.1 54.8 Trump
 Kentucky 38.9 56.6 36.8 61.9 Trump
 Louisiana 39.1 53.7 37.0 58.7 Trump
 Maine 54.1 39.3 51.2 43.0 Biden
 Maryland 62.9 30.4 59.5 33.3 Biden
 Massachusetts 66.6 28.2 63.0 30.9 Biden
 Michigan 50.7 42.8 48.0 46.8 Biden
 Minnesota 50.7 41.6 48.0 45.5 Biden
 Mississippi 40.1 53.7 37.9 58.7 Trump
 Missouri 44.9 51.1 42.5 55.9 Trump
 Montana 43.9 52.1 41.5 57.0 Trump
 Nebraska 44.3 50.6 41.9 55.4 Trump
 Nevada 49.6 43.3 46.9 47.4 Trump
 New Hampshire 53.8 44.2 50.9 48.4 Biden
 New Jersey 56.3 36.4 53.3 39.8 Biden
 New Mexico 53.9 40.5 51.0 44.3 Biden
 New York 62.5 31.4 59.1 34.4 Biden
 North Carolina 49.1 45.9 46.4 50.2 Trump
 North Dakota 37 57.1 35.0 62.5 Trump
 Ohio 46.9 47.1 44.4 51.5 Trump
 Oklahoma 36.4 57.5 34.4 62.9 Trump
 Oregon 57.4 37.4 54.3 40.9 Biden
 Pennsylvania 50.8 44 48.1 48.1 Trump
 Rhode Island 63.9 32.2 60.4 35.2 Biden
 South Carolina 43.4 50.7 41.1 55.5 Trump
 South Dakota 39.8 54.8 37.7 60.0 Trump
 Tennessee 40.8 54.4 38.6 59.5 Trump
 Texas 47.2 48.6 44.7 53.2 Trump
 Utah 39.6 51.2 37.5 56.0 Trump
 Vermont 63.3 29.6 59.9 32.4 Biden
 Virginia 53.6 40.1 50.7 43.9 Biden
 Washington 59.5 34.2 56.3 37.4 Biden
 West Virginia 36.1 58.8 34.2 64.3 Trump
 Wisconsin 50.9 43.1 48.2 47.2 Biden
 Wyoming 29.8 56.3 28.2 61.6 Trump

Sauce:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-28/new-study-suggests-polls-are-missing-shy-trump-voters

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/08/13/the-2020-trump-biden-matchup/

Can you screenshot where you input the data and post the screenshot on an image hosting site?

If you copy it into excel it'll parse correctly. The input data is just from five thirty eight latest average poll 

11 days ago
4/12/04
Posts: 8339
ryunz -
Kona Silat -

@ryunz , i agree it is going to be close. I don't think it is going to be landside, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did. I am pretty certain he won't win the popular vote. However, I probably predict that Trump will claim that he won by landslide to which I would respond "STFU, you won. Take a W and get back to business"

EDIT: I noticed Pennsylvania is a tie in your adjustments

It's a tie when rounded but marginal Trump unrounded 

 

11 days ago
1/1/01
Posts: 29603

Talking with my wife this morning and she and many of her liberal friends support Biden, but are probably just going to sit out and not vote this year. 

I haven't heard one Trump supporter that said they aren't going to vote this year. 

11 days ago
4/12/04
Posts: 8340
ryunz -
robbie380 -
ryunz - ..enthusiasm

My brief analysis has Trump winning 285 vs 253 based on three things:

1. Most recent FiveThirtyEight average State polls
2. Adjustment for Shy Trumpers
3. Adjustment for voter enthusiasm

Studies show 11.7% of Republicans are not telling pollsters their true voting intention. I'm assuming therefore that these voters are voting Trump but not showing in the polls. For Dems the number is 5.4%, you could make the argument that these people are voting Trump too since but I'm not relying on that.

Additionally, 66% of Trump supporters are "strong supporters", while only 46% of Biden supporters are "strong supporters". Here I'm assuming strong supporters are 10% more likely to vote which I think is actually a conservative assumption.

With those adjustments, Trump is winning 285 vs 253

State breakdown:


State Biden Trump Biden Adj Trump Adj Winner
 Alabama 38.8 56.5 36.7 61.8 Trump
 Alaska 43.9 48.8 41.5 53.4 Trump
 Arizona 49 45.1 46.4 49.3 Trump
 Arkansas 40.4 54.5 38.2 59.6 Trump
 California 62.3 31 58.9 33.9 Biden
 Colorado 53.1 40 50.2 43.8 Biden
 Connecticut 59.1 33.3 55.9 36.4 Biden
D. of Columbia 87.1 8.6 82.4 9.4 Biden
 Delaware 59.7 33.2 56.5 36.3 Biden
 Florida 49.1 45.1 46.4 49.3 Trump
 Georgia 47.9 46.6 45.3 51.0 Trump
 Hawaii 63.1 30.2 59.7 33.0 Biden
 Idaho 37.1 58 35.1 63.5 Trump
 Illinois 56.5 38 53.4 41.6 Biden
 Indiana 41.5 51.3 39.3 56.1 Trump
 Iowa 47.8 47.6 45.2 52.1 Trump
 Kansas 43.4 50.1 41.1 54.8 Trump
 Kentucky 38.9 56.6 36.8 61.9 Trump
 Louisiana 39.1 53.7 37.0 58.7 Trump
 Maine 54.1 39.3 51.2 43.0 Biden
 Maryland 62.9 30.4 59.5 33.3 Biden
 Massachusetts 66.6 28.2 63.0 30.9 Biden
 Michigan 50.7 42.8 48.0 46.8 Biden
 Minnesota 50.7 41.6 48.0 45.5 Biden
 Mississippi 40.1 53.7 37.9 58.7 Trump
 Missouri 44.9 51.1 42.5 55.9 Trump
 Montana 43.9 52.1 41.5 57.0 Trump
 Nebraska 44.3 50.6 41.9 55.4 Trump
 Nevada 49.6 43.3 46.9 47.4 Trump
 New Hampshire 53.8 44.2 50.9 48.4 Biden
 New Jersey 56.3 36.4 53.3 39.8 Biden
 New Mexico 53.9 40.5 51.0 44.3 Biden
 New York 62.5 31.4 59.1 34.4 Biden
 North Carolina 49.1 45.9 46.4 50.2 Trump
 North Dakota 37 57.1 35.0 62.5 Trump
 Ohio 46.9 47.1 44.4 51.5 Trump
 Oklahoma 36.4 57.5 34.4 62.9 Trump
 Oregon 57.4 37.4 54.3 40.9 Biden
 Pennsylvania 50.8 44 48.1 48.1 Trump
 Rhode Island 63.9 32.2 60.4 35.2 Biden
 South Carolina 43.4 50.7 41.1 55.5 Trump
 South Dakota 39.8 54.8 37.7 60.0 Trump
 Tennessee 40.8 54.4 38.6 59.5 Trump
 Texas 47.2 48.6 44.7 53.2 Trump
 Utah 39.6 51.2 37.5 56.0 Trump
 Vermont 63.3 29.6 59.9 32.4 Biden
 Virginia 53.6 40.1 50.7 43.9 Biden
 Washington 59.5 34.2 56.3 37.4 Biden
 West Virginia 36.1 58.8 34.2 64.3 Trump
 Wisconsin 50.9 43.1 48.2 47.2 Biden
 Wyoming 29.8 56.3 28.2 61.6 Trump

Sauce:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-28/new-study-suggests-polls-are-missing-shy-trump-voters

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/08/13/the-2020-trump-biden-matchup/

Can you screenshot where you input the data and post the screenshot on an image hosting site?

If you copy it into excel it'll parse correctly. The input data is just from five thirty eight latest average poll 

Just use Excel 365 or Google Sheet and make it public.

Edited: 11 days ago
7/31/09
Posts: 7168

Those numbers certainly seem reasonable and would be close to 2016.  They would also seem to reiterate the comments of Biden's campaign manager as well. 

11 days ago
5/18/10
Posts: 14070
Kona Silat - 
ryunz -
robbie380 -
ryunz - ..enthusiasm

My brief analysis has Trump winning 285 vs 253 based on three things:

1. Most recent FiveThirtyEight average State polls
2. Adjustment for Shy Trumpers
3. Adjustment for voter enthusiasm

Studies show 11.7% of Republicans are not telling pollsters their true voting intention. I'm assuming therefore that these voters are voting Trump but not showing in the polls. For Dems the number is 5.4%, you could make the argument that these people are voting Trump too since but I'm not relying on that.

Additionally, 66% of Trump supporters are "strong supporters", while only 46% of Biden supporters are "strong supporters". Here I'm assuming strong supporters are 10% more likely to vote which I think is actually a conservative assumption.

With those adjustments, Trump is winning 285 vs 253

State breakdown:


State Biden Trump Biden Adj Trump Adj Winner
 Alabama 38.8 56.5 36.7 61.8 Trump
 Alaska 43.9 48.8 41.5 53.4 Trump
 Arizona 49 45.1 46.4 49.3 Trump
 Arkansas 40.4 54.5 38.2 59.6 Trump
 California 62.3 31 58.9 33.9 Biden
 Colorado 53.1 40 50.2 43.8 Biden
 Connecticut 59.1 33.3 55.9 36.4 Biden
D. of Columbia 87.1 8.6 82.4 9.4 Biden
 Delaware 59.7 33.2 56.5 36.3 Biden
 Florida 49.1 45.1 46.4 49.3 Trump
 Georgia 47.9 46.6 45.3 51.0 Trump
 Hawaii 63.1 30.2 59.7 33.0 Biden
 Idaho 37.1 58 35.1 63.5 Trump
 Illinois 56.5 38 53.4 41.6 Biden
 Indiana 41.5 51.3 39.3 56.1 Trump
 Iowa 47.8 47.6 45.2 52.1 Trump
 Kansas 43.4 50.1 41.1 54.8 Trump
 Kentucky 38.9 56.6 36.8 61.9 Trump
 Louisiana 39.1 53.7 37.0 58.7 Trump
 Maine 54.1 39.3 51.2 43.0 Biden
 Maryland 62.9 30.4 59.5 33.3 Biden
 Massachusetts 66.6 28.2 63.0 30.9 Biden
 Michigan 50.7 42.8 48.0 46.8 Biden
 Minnesota 50.7 41.6 48.0 45.5 Biden
 Mississippi 40.1 53.7 37.9 58.7 Trump
 Missouri 44.9 51.1 42.5 55.9 Trump
 Montana 43.9 52.1 41.5 57.0 Trump
 Nebraska 44.3 50.6 41.9 55.4 Trump
 Nevada 49.6 43.3 46.9 47.4 Trump
 New Hampshire 53.8 44.2 50.9 48.4 Biden
 New Jersey 56.3 36.4 53.3 39.8 Biden
 New Mexico 53.9 40.5 51.0 44.3 Biden
 New York 62.5 31.4 59.1 34.4 Biden
 North Carolina 49.1 45.9 46.4 50.2 Trump
 North Dakota 37 57.1 35.0 62.5 Trump
 Ohio 46.9 47.1 44.4 51.5 Trump
 Oklahoma 36.4 57.5 34.4 62.9 Trump
 Oregon 57.4 37.4 54.3 40.9 Biden
 Pennsylvania 50.8 44 48.1 48.1 Trump
 Rhode Island 63.9 32.2 60.4 35.2 Biden
 South Carolina 43.4 50.7 41.1 55.5 Trump
 South Dakota 39.8 54.8 37.7 60.0 Trump
 Tennessee 40.8 54.4 38.6 59.5 Trump
 Texas 47.2 48.6 44.7 53.2 Trump
 Utah 39.6 51.2 37.5 56.0 Trump
 Vermont 63.3 29.6 59.9 32.4 Biden
 Virginia 53.6 40.1 50.7 43.9 Biden
 Washington 59.5 34.2 56.3 37.4 Biden
 West Virginia 36.1 58.8 34.2 64.3 Trump
 Wisconsin 50.9 43.1 48.2 47.2 Biden
 Wyoming 29.8 56.3 28.2 61.6 Trump

Sauce:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-28/new-study-suggests-polls-are-missing-shy-trump-voters

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/08/13/the-2020-trump-biden-matchup/

Can you screenshot where you input the data and post the screenshot on an image hosting site?

If you copy it into excel it'll parse correctly. The input data is just from five thirty eight latest average poll 

Just use Excel 365 or Google Sheet and make it public.


If you want to tie out the numbers, for Trump I'm dividing his support by (100%-11.7%), which is about a 113.3% multiplier to get his real support level.

Then for both support levels I'm applying a 10% discount to their moderate support to get voter %, so 10%*54%=5.4% discount (94.6% multiplier) for Biden, and 10%*34% = 3.4% discount (96.6% multiplier) for Trump.
11 days ago
5/18/10
Posts: 14076
jman -

Talking with my wife this morning and she and many of her liberal friends support Biden, but are probably just going to sit out and not vote this year. 

I haven't heard one Trump supporter that said they aren't going to vote this year. 

I'm sorry about your wife. 

Edited: 11 days ago
1/25/07
Posts: 4545

All of the models you are using are already giving Trump a roughly 3 point boost because of 2016. Nate silver has written about it extensively.

 

So you are essentially giving Trump two bumps to account for polling bias, which is creating your own polling bias.

 

When you look at the pollsters that the data is derived from you've got more problems, because they are also weighting by education level to give Trump a bump to account for 2016.

 

11 days ago
5/22/05
Posts: 26567
I remember when the 'unskewed' polls were indicating that Romney was going to be a big winner in 2012.