Member Since: 10/3/16
Oxford now saying it will be the biggest trouncing since Reagan/Carter in 1980.
"The election model run by forecasting firm Oxford Economics now sees Biden beating Trump by historic margins, due to an economy deeply damaged by the coronavirus recession. Before the recession, the model showed Trump winning in a close race.
The key variable in the Oxford model is a sharp economic contraction in swing states that fuels dissatisfaction with Trump and his fellow Republicans, and bolsters Democratic turnout. In the model, Biden, the former vice president, wins all the usual Democratic states plus seven states Trump won in 2016: Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The outcome would give Biden 65% of the popular vote, and Trump just 35%. Biden would win the electoral vote 328 – 210, the worst womping of an incumbent president since Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980. In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, 48% to 46%, but swing state victories gave him a 306-232 electoral college win. The Oxford model predicted Hillary Clinton’s popular vote win, but not Trump’s electoral college margin. In 18 presidential elections dating to 1948, the Oxford model got the popular vote winner wrong only twice, in 1968 and 1976.
Before the virus arrived, Oxford forecast Trump winning reelection with a 55% popular-vote margin. The reeling economy and Trump’s halting response to the crisis have obviously helped Biden. Polls show Biden with a 4 to 5 point lead over Trump nationally. Biden also leads in most of the swing states likely to determine the winner in November. Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics recently told Yahoo Finance his firm’s election forecasting tool also switched from Trump to Biden recently, though details aren’t publicly available yet."