OtherGround Forums US Entering 3rd COVID Wave

12 days ago
3/28/02
Posts: 9454

This trend doesnt look good.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-third-wave-coronavirus-cases-hospitalizations-surge-2020-10

 

The US has entered its 3rd — and possibly largest — wave of coronavirus cases. Experts say states should 'pull back.'

Aria Bendix 

19 hours ago

 

coronavirus testing florida cases deaths surge

Medical workers in Florida test a person for the coronavirus on July 22. 

Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

  • The US has entered its third wave of coronavirus infections. New cases are spiking in the Midwest.
  • Public-health experts worry this wave could be the largest, and perhaps deadliest, yet.
  • A surge in cases and hospitalizations was expected, they added, since lockdowns have lifted, people are spending more time indoors, and "pandemic fatigue" has set in.

Seventeen US states have reported more new coronavirus cases in the past week than in any week prior. The country's seven-day average of new cases has risen about 25% since October 1, with the number of new cases climbing in 41 states over the past two weeks. The US is now seeing an average of more than 50,000 cases per day.

"I'm not a doomsday person: but this is the beginning of the wave," Dr. Megan Ranney, an emergency-medicine physician at Brown University, wrote Thursday on Twitter.

Indeed, the US has entered its third major wave of infections — one experts worry could wind up being the largest. The reason, they say, is a combination of factors: Lockdown measures have lifted, more people are spending time indoors as weather gets cold, residents are feeling fatigued by safety measures, and cases never dropped sufficiently.

"If the rates never get that low, and basic public-health measures are not universally adopted, and then you bring people indoors to share a meal together, you're kind of putting together the perfect storm," Ingrid Katz, an assistant professor at Harvard Medical School, told Business Insider. "Unfortunately this was completely anticipated."

Indeed, the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) predicted in August that more than 20 states would need to reimpose lockdown measures before December, including closing nonessential businesses and reinstating stay-at-home orders. Their model predicted at least 175,000 more people in the US could die from now through February 1. That would make this third wave the deadliest yet.

 

"The infections that will fill our hospital in 2 weeks have already been transmitted," Ranney said. "Wear a mask and get ready to hunker down again."

12 days ago
3/28/02
Posts: 9455

Pandemic fatigue has arrived

During the first wave in the spring, US cases were concentrated in the Northeast. By the second wave this summer, cases had migrated to the South and Sunbelt. Now cases are concentrated in the Midwest, but the virus is more widespread than ever before — it's had 10 months to spread, after all.

What remains the same, however, is that the US continues to be hamstrung by insufficient contact tracing and a widespread distrust of scientific recommendations.

 

"We still don't have a national coordinated response. We still have a lot of misinformation about simple, basic public-health behavior, like wearing a mask, which we know is effective," Katz said, adding, "in a way, we're battling two pandemics — that of COVID itself and then, of course, the misinformation that surrounds it."

wisconsin reopening

Jonesy's Local Bar in Hudson, Wisconsin, on May 14. 

Jerry Holt/Star Tribune via Getty Images

But it's understandable that some Americans are struggling to follow public safety measures, she added, since many people have developed "pandemic fatigue." That could make them less likely to remain at home or stay informed about local transmission. As schools and businesses reopen, others may get the false impression that those environments are now completely safe.

"We're seeing a roller coaster in the United States," IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said in a statement. "It appears that people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase, then after a while as infections drop, people let their guard down and stop taking these measures to protect themselves and others – which, of course, leads to more infections. And the potentially deadly cycle starts over again." 

Rising hospitalizations could trigger more lockdowns

Though new cases are concentrated in the Midwest, experts said they could quickly spill into other parts of the country.

At least 14 states have test-positivity rates — the share of coronavirus tests that come back positive — above 10%, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said test-positivity rates should ideally sit below 3%. A rate between 7 and 9% is "very disturbing," Dr. Howard Koh, a professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, previously told Business Insider.

The US's overall test-positivity rate was at 5.2% on Thursday, a slight uptick from 4.6% on October 1.

Texas coronavirus hospital patient covid 19 death

Medical staff push a stretcher with a deceased patient outside the COVID-19 intensive-care unit at United Memorial Medical Center in Houston on June 30. 

Go Nakamura/Getty Images

Coronavirus hospitalizations are on the rise as well. As of Friday, they'd risen by 21% compared with three weeks prior. A dozen states — including Montana, North Dakota, and Wisconsin — have seen record hospitalization rates in the past week, The Washington Post reported Thursday.

It's difficult to know whether this will translate to a proportional uptick in deaths. Doctors have gotten better at treating patients since the start of the pandemic, and death rates vary depending on the specific population groups that get exposed or infected, but there's still no cure for the virus.

If hospitals start to become crowded, public-health experts say that could create a need for tighter lockdown restrictions again. 

"There's lots of steps you can take between this and a whole quarantine," Katz said. "You can stop doing in-person dining, you can stop having people go to the gym, you can stop having your hot-yoga There are all these different ways that we can pull back."

12 days ago
12/8/12
Posts: 3058


12 days ago
1/1/01
Posts: 84886

OMG we're all going to die!

12 days ago
7/13/17
Posts: 6622

So 2 million more dead in the us in 2 weeks?? Shut it down 

12 days ago
2/19/12
Posts: 8134
I own a restaurant. we were allowed to reopen with restrictions.

If it is a deadly pandemic as reported, why am I not required to have bio-hazard bags out back for people's napkins, straw, etc.

Why can I go to the gas station off the interstate and see hundreds of out of state plates stop and get gas, use the bathroom, get their beer. Yet, I see no one sanitizing pump handles, bathroom, etc.

It's security theater and is a joke, it will all end after the election.
12 days ago
1/3/20
Posts: 3922

lol..the fear! Fear! Fear! The world is ending, destroy everything before it arrives! Hurry! 

12 days ago
4/11/14
Posts: 10391

Stacking bodies like cordwood in 2 weeks

 

12 days ago
3/28/02
Posts: 9456

good to see the Flat Earth Society alive and well here

12 days ago
1/2/15
Posts: 11814

Haha it's weird that liberals really want another lockdown cause orange man bad 

12 days ago
3/28/02
Posts: 9458
Junnk -

Haha it's weird that liberals really want another lockdown cause orange man bad 

no one said lock down on this thread

just make an empirical observation about rising infection levels

strange so many idiot peasants get so emotional about data

12 days ago
7/13/17
Posts: 6626

Let's see if blue states can handle it better this time around. I'll pray for you guys.  

12 days ago
7/7/14
Posts: 5862

Looking at stats, there is an increase happening, but there is a massive increase in testing.  Schools and colleges are back open and that creates a lot of contact.

My kids have been back to school as normal and my son has played football all season.  No cancelled games, no rampant quarantines.  Nothing.  My kids have both been sick since the school year started as well too, but the rona has already been through our house back in March.

You can't stop a virus.  We have to let this thing run through our population and gain immunity and move on!  Just another virus added to the long list of things humans have defeated.

12 days ago
2/12/14
Posts: 2253

12 days ago
12/24/16
Posts: 1271
EazyG - 
Junnk -

Haha it's weird that liberals really want another lockdown cause orange man bad 

no one said lock down on this thread

just make an empirical observation about rising infection levels

strange so many idiot peasants get so emotional about data


we have the cure!!!! Nick Saban just took down the deadliest virus in the history of the universe in ONE DAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
12 days ago
7/13/17
Posts: 6631

Mods send this to the DOOMERS GROUND. Mattyecb and reezyG can circle jerk there.  

Edited: 12 days ago
1/1/01
Posts: 52487

There is a good argument that we are still in the first wave.

However, while the virus is quite real, the infection fatality rate has turned out to be quite a bit lower than first assumed.   At the beginning we were hearing of numbers as high as 6%.  The first official IFR by the WHO was 3.5%.  Those were horrifying numbers for a virus twice as infectious as the flu.  

But those numbers have dropped down to 0.26% as of latest report.   That's still twice the flu but vastly more manageable.  At some point, mental health issues, alcoholism and suicide caused by the lockdowns will be far worse than the effects of the virus.

Mass lockdowns should be off the table at this point.  Targetted restrictions against large gatherings like concerts should still exist.  As well as hot spots like bars.  But if the IFR continues to drop much more, even those restrictions should be lifted.  Assuming it doesn't start to crowd the hospitals.

12 days ago
1/30/16
Posts: 4539
EazyG -
Junnk -

Haha it's weird that liberals really want another lockdown cause orange man bad 

no one said lock down on this thread

just make an empirical observation about rising infection levels

strange so many idiot peasants get so emotional about data

On snap, you called him a peasant. That’s so badass.

12 days ago
6/20/13
Posts: 2281

it's almost like the more you test the more your numbers go up.

12 days ago
6/24/07
Posts: 4395

Stay home then. If you’re afraid of getting sick, stay home and stay away from others. 

12 days ago
12/17/06
Posts: 89303

I'm .0004% sure this is a major problem! 

12 days ago
2/25/09
Posts: 10715

Sky is definitely falling. It's all all good op once Nov 3 is over the covid will magically disappear from the msm

12 days ago
8/29/09
Posts: 19181

Yeah, go fuck yourself OP. 
 

my 325lb 58yo mother in law just shrugged off Covid. My 86 yo grandma in law with copd who has been on oxygen for at least 14 years was hospitalized and is recovering from Covid. This woman's health is as poor as you can get, and she checks all the boxes as someone who is extremely high risk, and she is beating it. 
 

Covid, much like you Op, ain't shit. 

12 days ago
3/18/02
Posts: 96949

holy fuck I hope the survival rate doesnt dip below 99.9% 

oh the horror lol 

If biden is elected he will shut down the entire country (and at that point, America would deserve the poverty waves) 

12 days ago
7/2/07
Posts: 17708
See the thread started by Williepep asking if more restrictions were on the way


I will bump


It seems it is all starting to to play out


I did make that shit TT up It is written a little like a 3 RD person report but it is what I heard









Seee