OtherGround Forums Wuhan Coronavirus daily update counts: 10,192,727

3/3/20 9:58 PM
1/19/12
Posts: 31670
Cire -

Coronavirus Cases:

92,880 

view by country

Deaths:

3,168

Recovered:

48,509

ACTIVE CASES 

41,203

Currently Infected Patients

34,041 (83%) 

in Mild Condition


7,162 (17%) 

Serious or Critical

 

Active cases looking to go under 40k now. Really good news for the last 1-2 weeks, looks like it’s fading away...

3/4/20 6:25 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 24681
Soup and Beer -
sparkyman - 
Diabeetus -

I'm not sure why all of these news articles read like we have any idea what the mortality rate is. There is most likely a significant amount of people that have the virus yet have little to no symptoms so they've never sought medical treatment.

Probably quite a few deaths that were never tested as well. Maybe it all works out?


That's why many are using South Korea as a model for more accurate information.  They have tested over 130,000 already including many showing no symptoms.  Their numbers are bringing the overal mortality rate to around 0.2-0.4%.  Which sounds a lot better than 2-4%

Accurate compared to what? They have  a first rate medical system and infrastructure. Better than Italy and probably better than the US.

3/4/20 9:54 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 19328

Mortality rate will grow when overcrowding causes many people to recieve zero care.

 

The early patients are the luckiest.

3/4/20 10:02 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 48781
Naughty Gorilla - 
Soup and Beer -
sparkyman - 
Diabeetus -

I'm not sure why all of these news articles read like we have any idea what the mortality rate is. There is most likely a significant amount of people that have the virus yet have little to no symptoms so they've never sought medical treatment.

Probably quite a few deaths that were never tested as well. Maybe it all works out?


That's why many are using South Korea as a model for more accurate information.  They have tested over 130,000 already including many showing no symptoms.  Their numbers are bringing the overal mortality rate to around 0.2-0.4%.  Which sounds a lot better than 2-4%

Accurate compared to what? They have  a first rate medical system and infrastructure. Better than Italy and probably better than the US.


They are testing a wide range of people including those who are asymptomatic.  When you do that you get a larger population of infected that wouldn't have been counted otherwise.   With many more people included in the numbers who are showing little to no sign of the virus you lower the mortality rate.

3/4/20 10:18 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 19618

Coronavirus Cases:

94,348 

view by country

Deaths:

3,222

Recovered:

51,317

ACTIVE CASES 

39,809

Currently Infected Patients

33,027 (83%) 

in Mild Condition


6,782 (17%) 

Serious or Critical

 

Edited: 3/4/20 11:49 AM
6/13/03
Posts: 26946

6 new cases in LA and 2 in OC. LA declares a local emergency. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/los-angeles-area-officials-declare-local-emergency-confirm-new-coronavirus-cases.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Message

3/4/20 12:19 PM
10/25/05
Posts: 10331

How does Germany have 262 cases and no deaths? That seams like an anomaly. 

3/4/20 12:20 PM
7/6/14
Posts: 3967

I'm curious if South by Southwest here in Austin Texas will get cancelled. A lot of companies have already pulled out due to the virus. That's over 20k ppl within a pretty small area.  A lot of San Antonio residents come to SXSW so hopefully none of them got the virus from the chic that was walking around the mall with it.

3/4/20 12:36 PM
4/13/12
Posts: 33114
Animal Mother -

How does Germany have 262 cases and no deaths? That seams like an anomaly. 

they're about as first world as it gets.  and didnt they get hit late?

3/4/20 4:09 PM
4/27/14
Posts: 23246

Chinese are now saying two variants:

https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463

ABSTRACT

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic started in late December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and has since impacted a large portion of China and raised major global concern. Herein, we investigated the extent of molecular divergence between SARS-CoV-2 and other related coronaviruses. Although we found only 4% variability in genomic nucleotides between SARS-CoV-2 and a bat SARS-related coronavirus (SARSr-CoV; RaTG13), the difference at neutral sites was 17%, suggesting the divergence between the two viruses is much larger than previously estimated. Our results suggest that the development of new variations in functional sites in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike seen in SARS-CoV-2 and viruses from pangolin SARSr-CoVs are likely caused by mutations and natural selection besides recombination. Population genetic analyses of 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes indicated that these viruses evolved into two major types (designated L and S), that are well defined by two different SNPs that show nearly complete linkage across the viral strains sequenced to date. Although the L type (?70%) is more prevalent than the S type (?30%), the S type was found to be the ancestral version. Whereas the L type was more prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, the frequency of the L type decreased after early January 2020. Human intervention may have placed more severe selective pressure on the L type, which might be more aggressive and spread more quickly. On the other hand, the S type, which is evolutionarily older and less aggressive, might have increased in relative frequency due to relatively weaker selective pressure. These findings strongly support an urgent need for further immediate, comprehensive studies that combine genomic data, epidemiological data, and chart records of the clinical symptoms of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

3/4/20 7:23 PM
12/9/13
Posts: 27215
Animal Mother -

How does Germany have 262 cases and no deaths? That seams like an anomaly. 

Germany has one of the world finest Healthcare

3/4/20 7:39 PM
11/1/03
Posts: 21221
Naughty Gorilla -
Soup and Beer -
sparkyman - 
Diabeetus -

I'm not sure why all of these news articles read like we have any idea what the mortality rate is. There is most likely a significant amount of people that have the virus yet have little to no symptoms so they've never sought medical treatment.

Probably quite a few deaths that were never tested as well. Maybe it all works out?


That's why many are using South Korea as a model for more accurate information.  They have tested over 130,000 already including many showing no symptoms.  Their numbers are bringing the overal mortality rate to around 0.2-0.4%.  Which sounds a lot better than 2-4%

Accurate compared to what? They have  a first rate medical system and infrastructure. Better than Italy and probably better than the US.

I really don't know if their medical system is better than ours but they were on the mark on their testing. The fact that everybody else is still far behind is suprising. Maybe to avoid panic governments thought not testing was a good idea?

3/4/20 7:41 PM
5/22/05
Posts: 25051

Singapore's response has probably been the most competent. Their Government is considerably more competent than the US Government.

3/4/20 7:44 PM
11/1/03
Posts: 21222
Animal Mother -

How does Germany have 262 cases and no deaths? That seams like an anomaly. 

Luck could be a factor. In the US it hit an old folks home with many old and sick residents. Almost all our deaths are from there. When it hits a retrirement home or hospital in Germany we may see similar results. Old and weak are by far the most at risk.

3/4/20 7:49 PM
1/7/09
Posts: 15640
Morpheus1976 -
Animal Mother -

How does Germany have 262 cases and no deaths? That seams like an anomaly. 

Germany has one of the world finest Healthcare

Trying to predict a death rate based on such a tiny sample size doesnt tell you anything.  It means literally nothing.

 

Not to mention the virus can take up to 6 weeks to kill someone once they get sick, so the stats always lag from the time when cases are first discovered.

3/4/20 7:59 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 19623

Coronavirus Cases:

95,334 

view by country

Deaths:

3,285

Recovered:

53,641

ACTIVE CASES 

38,408

Currently Infected Patients

31,989 (83%) 

in Mild Condition


6,419 (17%) 

Serious or Critica

3/4/20 8:33 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 24683
banco -

Singapore's response has probably been the most competent. Their Government is considerably more competent than the US Government.

Hong Kong has 12 border crossings with the mainland. Singapore has none. Yet the latter has more covid cases.

3/4/20 8:40 PM
2/5/05
Posts: 50051
Cire -

Coronavirus Cases:

95,334 

view by country

Deaths:

3,285

Recovered:

53,641

ACTIVE CASES 

38,408

Currently Infected Patients

31,989 (83%) 

in Mild Condition


6,419 (17%) 

Serious or Critica

Come on guys. Let’s try to get to a 100k tomorrow if possible ... but Friday will do. 

3/4/20 9:19 PM
12/1/05
Posts: 15561

Just heard about the cruise ship off the coast of California, stuck out at sea with like 21 possible cases. I think they said 1100 on board.  

 

Who TF would get on a cruise ship right now.

3/4/20 9:29 PM
1/19/12
Posts: 31674
Cire -

Coronavirus Cases:

95,334 

view by country

Deaths:

3,285

Recovered:

53,641

ACTIVE CASES 

38,408

Currently Infected Patients

31,989 (83%) 

in Mild Condition


6,419 (17%) 

Serious or Critica

Active cases down to 38k. Feeling better about this every day.

Edited: 3/4/20 9:57 PM
7/31/09
Posts: 6332
ABCTT_GROUNDnLB -
Cire -

Coronavirus Cases:

95,334 

view by country

Deaths:

3,285

Recovered:

53,641

ACTIVE CASES 

38,408

Currently Infected Patients

31,989 (83%) 

in Mild Condition


6,419 (17%) 

Serious or Critica

Active cases down to 38k. Feeling better about this every day.

China went thru very strong measures to see that decline.  Also it looks like about 1.3% of their closed cases over the past few days have resulted in death.  That's a positive sign to see that.  The percentage of cases as serious/critical continues to decline too in China.  Hopefully the trend continues.  

3/4/20 10:11 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 1109

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html

 

But the most straightforward and compelling evidence that the true case fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 is well under 1 percent comes not from statistical trends and methodological massage, but from data from the Diamond Princess cruise outbreak and subsequent quarantine off the coast of Japan.

A quarantined boat is an ideal—if unfortunate—natural laboratory to study a virus. Many variables normally impossible to control are controlled. We know that all but one patient boarded the boat without the virus. We know that the other passengers were healthy enough to travel. We know their whereabouts and exposures. While the numbers coming out of China are scary, we don’t know how many of those patients were already ill for other reasons. How many were already hospitalized for another life-threatening illness and then caught the virus? How many were completely healthy, caught the virus, and developed a critical illness? In the real world, we just don’t know.

 

Here’s the problem with looking at mortality numbers in a general setting: In China, 9 million people die per year, which comes out to 25,000 people every single day, or around 1.5 million people over the past two months alone. A significant fraction of these deaths results from diseases like emphysema/COPD, lower respiratory infections, and cancers of the lung and airway whose symptoms are clinically indistinguishable from the nonspecific symptoms seen in severe COVID-19 cases. And, perhaps unsurprisingly, the death rate from COVID-19 in China spiked precisely among the same age groups in which these chronic diseases first become common. During the peak of the outbreak in China in January and early February, around 25 patients per day were dying with SARS-CoV-2. Most were older patients in whom the chronic diseases listed above are prevalent. Most deaths occurred in Hubei province, an area in which lung cancer and emphysema/COPD are significantly higher than national averages in China, a country where half of all men smoke. How were doctors supposed to sort out which of those 25 out of 25,000 daily deaths were solely due to coronavirus, and which were more complicated? What we need to know is how many excess deaths this virus causes.

This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus (which, considering the confines, conditions, and how contagious this virus appears to be, is surprisingly low). Of those, more than half are asymptomatic, while very few asymptomatic people were detected in China. This alone suggests a halving of the virus’s true fatality rate.

On the Diamond Princess, six deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 0.85 percent. Unlike the data from China and elsewhere, where sorting out why a patient died is extremely difficult, we can assume that these are excess fatalities—they wouldn’t have occurred but for SARS-CoV-2. The most important insight is that all six fatalities occurred in patients who are more than 70 years old. Not a single Diamond Princess patient under age 70 has died. If the numbers from reports out of China had held, the expected number of deaths in those under 70 should have been around four.

 

The data from the Diamond Princess suggest an eightfold lower mortality amongst patients older than 70 and threefold lower mortality in patients over 80 compared to what was reported in China initially. But even those numbers, 1.1 percent and 4.9 percent respectively, are concerning. But there’s another thing that’s worth remembering: These patients were likely exposed repeatedly to concentrated viral loads (which can cause worse illness). Some treatments were delayed. So even the lower CFR found on the Diamond Princess could have been even lower, with proper protocols. It’s also worth noting that while cruise passengers can be assumed to be healthy enough to travel, they actually tend to reflect the general population, and many patients with chronic illnesses go on cruises. So, the numbers from this ship may be reasonable estimates.

 

This all suggests that COVID-19 is a relatively benign disease for most young people, and a potentially devastating one for the old and chronically ill, albeit not nearly as risky as reported. Given the low mortality rate among younger patients with coronavirus—zero in children 10 or younger among hundreds of cases in China, and 0.2-0.4 percent in most healthy nongeriatric adults (and this is still before accounting for what is likely to be a high number of undetected asymptomatic cases)—we need to divert our focus away from worrying about preventing systemic spread among healthy people—which is likely either inevitable, or out of our control—and commit most if not all of our resources toward protecting those truly at risk of developing critical illness and even death: everyone over 70, and people who are already at higher risk from this kind of virus.

This still largely comes down to hygiene and isolation. But in particular, we need to focus on the right people and the right places. Nursing homes, not schools. Hospitals, not planes. We need to up the hygienic and isolation ante primarily around the subset of people who can’t simply contract SARS-CoV-2 and ride it out the way healthy people should be able to.

3/4/20 10:11 PM
11/21/15
Posts: 3958
robbie380 -
ABCTT_GROUNDnLB -
Cire -

Coronavirus Cases:

95,334 

view by country

Deaths:

3,285

Recovered:

53,641

ACTIVE CASES 

38,408

Currently Infected Patients

31,989 (83%) 

in Mild Condition


6,419 (17%) 

Serious or Critica

Active cases down to 38k. Feeling better about this every day.

China went thru very strong measures to see that decline.  Also it looks like about 1.3% of their closed cases over the past few days have resulted in death.  That's a positive sign to see that.  The percentage of cases as serious/critical continues to decline too in China.  Hopefully the trend continues.  

I think pretty much everyone agrees that we can't trust any of the numbers coming out of China.

3/4/20 10:25 PM
3/9/13
Posts: 4216
cfochs -
robbie380 -
ABCTT_GROUNDnLB -
Cire -

Coronavirus Cases:

95,334 

view by country

Deaths:

3,285

Recovered:

53,641

ACTIVE CASES 

38,408

Currently Infected Patients

31,989 (83%) 

in Mild Condition


6,419 (17%) 

Serious or Critica

Active cases down to 38k. Feeling better about this every day.

China went thru very strong measures to see that decline.  Also it looks like about 1.3% of their closed cases over the past few days have resulted in death.  That's a positive sign to see that.  The percentage of cases as serious/critical continues to decline too in China.  Hopefully the trend continues.  

I think pretty much everyone agrees that we can't trust any of the numbers coming out of China.

While maybe underreported, I'm guessing the gist of the story is legit in that the cases are probably declining.

 

Add a zero to the numbers if you like but the story is the same.

 

That said, China took extreme measures to stop this thing that nobody else is taking.

3/4/20 10:35 PM
4/12/04
Posts: 7074
My PooPoo Hole Loves Furious Pounding -
Caladan - 
cfochs -
robbie380 -
ABCTT_GROUNDnLB -
Cire -

Coronavirus Cases:

95,334 

view by country

Deaths:

3,285

Recovered:

53,641

ACTIVE CASES 

38,408

Currently Infected Patients

31,989 (83%) 

in Mild Condition


6,419 (17%) 

Serious or Critica

Active cases down to 38k. Feeling better about this every day.

China went thru very strong measures to see that decline.  Also it looks like about 1.3% of their closed cases over the past few days have resulted in death.  That's a positive sign to see that.  The percentage of cases as serious/critical continues to decline too in China.  Hopefully the trend continues.  

I think pretty much everyone agrees that we can't trust any of the numbers coming out of China.

While maybe underreported, I'm guessing the gist of the story is legit in that the cases are probably declining.

 

Add a zero to the numbers if you like but the story is the same.

 

That said, China took extreme measures to stop this thing that nobody else is taking.


"China took extreme measures to stop this thing that nobody else is taking."

i got a text from the chinese government that said close everything

can you imagine that working in the US

I don't know how you guys who live overseas do it. I myself don't like living overseas in another country espeically a country that don't defend individual rights. I travel overseas for business frequently and I can tell you I am always looking forward coming home and relieved to be coming home alive and well.