OtherGround Forums Wuhan Coronavirus daily update counts: 6,048,870

3/10/20 11:08 AM
3/9/13
Posts: 4268
Bad Monkey -
Caladan -
Al Cappucino -

This thread was created a month ago almost to the day and there were 40k documented cases then whereas there are 116k cases now. Is there a point at which you don't have to be an infectious disease expert to start to be concerned?

It would have to be spreading a lot faster, and be much deadlier for it to concern me a great deal personally.  It is my expectation that it will be handled professionally, and held in check like the many other diseases that have passed through the last several years.  People that dislike the administration will say it was handled terribly.  People that like the administration will say it was handled perfectly.  In the end, it will fade away with little societal impact.

The problem is that the number if cases is wayyyy artificially low. It's been in the U.S. for 7ish weeks now. We most likely (by the math) have thousands of cases. 

 

There was an Atlantic article yesterday that projects that Iran has around 2 million cases. 

3/10/20 11:39 AM
1/12/07
Posts: 16979

3/10/20 11:42 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 17859
Caladan -
Bad Monkey -
Caladan -
Al Cappucino -

This thread was created a month ago almost to the day and there were 40k documented cases then whereas there are 116k cases now. Is there a point at which you don't have to be an infectious disease expert to start to be concerned?

It would have to be spreading a lot faster, and be much deadlier for it to concern me a great deal personally.  It is my expectation that it will be handled professionally, and held in check like the many other diseases that have passed through the last several years.  People that dislike the administration will say it was handled terribly.  People that like the administration will say it was handled perfectly.  In the end, it will fade away with little societal impact.

The problem is that the number if cases is wayyyy artificially low. It's been in the U.S. for 7ish weeks now. We most likely (by the math) have thousands of cases. 

 

There was an Atlantic article yesterday that projects that Iran has around 2 million cases. 

What is your WAG on their real death numbers?

3/10/20 11:44 AM
12/2/02
Posts: 34013

Imagine the number of cases if China didn't take the extreme measures that they did?

If people would have been left to self quarantine on the honor system? That is what is going to happen in North America, they aren't going to bring in the army to enforce a quarantine, and MANY people will break quarantine.

Edited: 3/10/20 11:48 AM
10/8/13
Posts: 3898
sparkyman -

Imagine the number of cases if China didn't take the extreme measures that they did?

If people would have been left to self quarantine on the honor system? That is what is going to happen in North America, they aren't going to bring in the army to enforce a quarantine, and MANY people will break quarantine.

Exactly this. The US isn't China where they'll start sealing people in their homes. Read a case this morning of one US teen who just got back from Italy who was showing symptoms and thought she was infected but still went out to a high school dance anyway breaking her self quarantine. The US is fucked when the ball starts rolling hard. It's a matter of when not if.

3/10/20 11:59 AM
12/9/13
Posts: 27281
MMA Promoter1 -
sparkyman -

Imagine the number of cases if China didn't take the extreme measures that they did?

If people would have been left to self quarantine on the honor system? That is what is going to happen in North America, they aren't going to bring in the army to enforce a quarantine, and MANY people will break quarantine.

Exactly this. The US isn't China where they'll start sealing people in their homes. Read a case this morning of one US teen who just got back from Italy who was showing symptoms and thought she was infected but still went out to a high school dance anyway breaking her self quarantine. The US is fucked when the ball starts rolling hard. It's a matter of when not if.

i've said a few times the US is fucked, but people did not understand me or i was fearmongering, if you don't test, it isn't so bad, right?. cause if you do test a lot, the economy will go down the drain.

3/10/20 12:15 PM
10/8/13
Posts: 3899

Saint Patrick's day parades in Ireland set to be cancelled because of Coronavirus for the first time in like 90 years. But no guys this shit isn't serious at all.

3/10/20 12:19 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 24217
/\ just like the flu
3/10/20 12:24 PM
10/8/13
Posts: 3900
DougWilson - /\ just like the flu

Italy had the same number of cases two weeks ago that the US does now. Italy is now on lockdown. 

3/10/20 12:28 PM
4/13/12
Posts: 33255

cases/ recoveries/ deaths by country

https://mackuba.eu/corona/

3/10/20 12:28 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 24218
I was being sarcastic.

Just hoping germany, france and the uk doesnt have to do what italy is doing. Just a matter of time when the us follows.
3/10/20 1:27 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 17863

On a global company call right now around updates and plans...don’t be scurred homie

3/10/20 1:30 PM
8/29/09
Posts: 16883
Caladan -
Bad Monkey -
Caladan -
Al Cappucino -

This thread was created a month ago almost to the day and there were 40k documented cases then whereas there are 116k cases now. Is there a point at which you don't have to be an infectious disease expert to start to be concerned?

It would have to be spreading a lot faster, and be much deadlier for it to concern me a great deal personally.  It is my expectation that it will be handled professionally, and held in check like the many other diseases that have passed through the last several years.  People that dislike the administration will say it was handled terribly.  People that like the administration will say it was handled perfectly.  In the end, it will fade away with little societal impact.

The problem is that the number if cases is wayyyy artificially low. It's been in the U.S. for 7ish weeks now. We most likely (by the math) have thousands of cases. 

 

There was an Atlantic article yesterday that projects that Iran has around 2 million cases. 

OK, all of these unreported cases are most likely less severe and bring down the mortality rate dramatically.  That would actually make it more like the flu.

Edited: 3/10/20 1:33 PM
7/4/11
Posts: 13547
Caladan -
Al Cappucino -

This thread was created a month ago almost to the day and there were 40k documented cases then whereas there are 116k cases now. Is there a point at which you don't have to be an infectious disease expert to start to be concerned?

The irony of this post.

I'm a medical researcher and my doctorate was using CRISPR-editing to design cell and mouse models of infectious diseases, and I've been called a dumbass and had basically everything I try to explain on the OG "refuted" by people with zero knowledge or understanding of my field. Most scientists and medical researchers are on the same page about COVID, that there shouldn't be widespread panic but that it needed to be taken seriously from the start.

It's the political and governmental organizations that have been dropping the ball and refusing to listen.

Edit: Referring to the comic, not your post.

For the most part, you don't need to be an expert to have an understanding of a topic, you just need to *listen* to the experts. Unfortunately, OGers do not like listening to medical or scientific experts as a general rule of thumb.

3/10/20 1:39 PM
8/2/19
Posts: 977
MattyECB -
Caladan -
Al Cappucino -

This thread was created a month ago almost to the day and there were 40k documented cases then whereas there are 116k cases now. Is there a point at which you don't have to be an infectious disease expert to start to be concerned?

The irony of this post.

I'm a medical researcher and my doctorate was using CRISPR-editing to design cell and mouse models of infectious diseases, and I've been called a dumbass and had basically everything I try to explain on the OG "refuted" by people with zero knowledge or understanding of my field. Most scientists and medical researchers are on the same page about COVID, that there shouldn't be widespread panic but that it needed to be taken seriously from the start.

It's the political and governmental organizations that have been dropping the ball and refusing to listen.

Edit: Referring to the comic, not your post.

For the most part, you don't need to be an expert to have an understanding of a topic, you just need to *listen* to the experts. Unfortunately, OGers do not like listening to medical or scientific experts as a general rule of thumb.

Cool!  When did you get your PhD?

3/10/20 3:49 PM
2/27/03
Posts: 1281

3/10/20 4:08 PM
1/12/07
Posts: 16988


3/10/20 5:41 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 19331

 

It would be super funny if the virus mutated into something that could not infect humans.

 

It would make trump correct retroactively.

 

Trump isn't the problem, his advisors are afraid to tell him just how many people will flood the hospitals leaving 75% of them without a hospital bed or respirator.

 

Now I don't have a PHD but I did work under Robert Gallo in the late 80s at a level 3 containment lab and have continued research into epidemiology on my own since then.

Use the data to come to your own conclusion and leave politics out of it.

My nephew is a doctor at walter reed and is not the least clued in on the epidemic to the point that I had to provide N95s to his mother.

Edited: 3/10/20 5:47 PM
3/20/15
Posts: 15111

According to the statistics... I have better cance of dying whileI  type this from.....

Heart disease......

 

Better get some TP...on it...

 

Edited: 3/10/20 6:01 PM
1/7/09
Posts: 15722
Bad Monkey -
Caladan -
Bad Monkey -
Caladan -
Al Cappucino -

This thread was created a month ago almost to the day and there were 40k documented cases then whereas there are 116k cases now. Is there a point at which you don't have to be an infectious disease expert to start to be concerned?

It would have to be spreading a lot faster, and be much deadlier for it to concern me a great deal personally.  It is my expectation that it will be handled professionally, and held in check like the many other diseases that have passed through the last several years.  People that dislike the administration will say it was handled terribly.  People that like the administration will say it was handled perfectly.  In the end, it will fade away with little societal impact.

The problem is that the number if cases is wayyyy artificially low. It's been in the U.S. for 7ish weeks now. We most likely (by the math) have thousands of cases. 

 

There was an Atlantic article yesterday that projects that Iran has around 2 million cases. 

OK, all of these unreported cases are most likely less severe and bring down the mortality rate dramatically.  That would actually make it more like the flu.

No. There is no possibility where this is anything like the flu.  The fatality rate is between .05-0.1% with the flu.  There is literally not a single study or epidemiological model that puts the number anywhere near that with coronavirus. The question is how much worse is it, and that number isnt settled, and it isnt the same for everyone across the board.  Is it going to be 0.9%,1%, 1.6%, 2.4%, 3%, etc no one knows yet.  The only group where this is decidedly not worse than the flu are under 30yr olds.  And when/if this comes back around next flu season, who knows if that will change(see what happened with the spanish flu).

 

The WHO recently adjusted their fatality rate upward specifically because they realized that they were not finding the mass numbers of previously unidentified mild cases that they initially thought there might be.

 

The virus doesnt act quickly, it can take 2 weeks before symptoms start to show up and weeks more before they get critical.  That's why its so dangerous. If it does get out of control in the US, we won't start to see the effects for weeks/months.

3/10/20 7:28 PM
11/20/09
Posts: 42762
Caladan - 
D241 -

There will definitely be people who have to eat crow in this thread, only time will tell.

 

I either for sure am one of them, or I for sure will be quoting some posters in the future.

 

I'm confident in time I'll be quoting instead of being quoted.

 

Patience.

I don't understand what your argument even is.

 

This is a crisis in China. This is a crisis in Italy and Iran.

 

You think it won't turn into a crisis here? Why? You haven't provided any reasoning for anything as far as I can tell.


All over this thread depending on how you feel, or how you want to feel, you can find articles to support that.  

 

If I want to make other's more serious about the issue than what they are, if they're being non chalant, then I will share them some of the panic type of articles.  If I want to make people less panicked, I will share some of the opposite articles. 

 

Have I talked to older people I work with to gauge their concern?  Yes

Have I talked to people who are more educated and more informed on certain areas than I am about this to get a good understanding of where I should stand? Yes.

 

Are you in China or a dangerous area?  No? Don'to panic, at least not yet.

Are you a man or woman 65yrs or older with any previous heart disease, respitory desease, previous health conditions?  No?  Don't panic.

 

Do you have loved ones who are older who go out to public places a lot and have health problems? 

 

I just try to look at where I stand in the logical scheme of things, and from my current point of view the coronavirus covid 19 is causinig direct impact moreso due to the panic than anything.  I barely was able to purchase a roll of toilet paper just now.  How fucking stupid.

 

Also I know it's not his area of expertise, but Elon Musk isn't exactly a dumb guy so when someone like him says panicking is dumb, I tend to agree.

3/10/20 7:30 PM
3/20/15
Posts: 15121

Image may contain: possible text that says 'Most of you are more likely to get chlamydia than coronavirus'

3/10/20 9:05 PM
1/30/10
Posts: 5887

All the people dying are 80+ ...Medicare/social security/Medicaid will be in a surplus and will benefit us when we retire and turn old 

3/10/20 9:12 PM
8/2/19
Posts: 981
D241 -
Caladan - 
D241 -

There will definitely be people who have to eat crow in this thread, only time will tell.

 

I either for sure am one of them, or I for sure will be quoting some posters in the future.

 

I'm confident in time I'll be quoting instead of being quoted.

 

Patience.

I don't understand what your argument even is.

 

This is a crisis in China. This is a crisis in Italy and Iran.

 

You think it won't turn into a crisis here? Why? You haven't provided any reasoning for anything as far as I can tell.


All over this thread depending on how you feel, or how you want to feel, you can find articles to support that.  

 

If I want to make other's more serious about the issue than what they are, if they're being non chalant, then I will share them some of the panic type of articles.  If I want to make people less panicked, I will share some of the opposite articles. 

 

Have I talked to older people I work with to gauge their concern?  Yes

Have I talked to people who are more educated and more informed on certain areas than I am about this to get a good understanding of where I should stand? Yes.

 

Are you in China or a dangerous area?  No? Don'to panic, at least not yet.

Are you a man or woman 65yrs or older with any previous heart disease, respitory desease, previous health conditions?  No?  Don't panic.

 

Do you have loved ones who are older who go out to public places a lot and have health problems? 

 

I just try to look at where I stand in the logical scheme of things, and from my current point of view the coronavirus covid 19 is causinig direct impact moreso due to the panic than anything.  I barely was able to purchase a roll of toilet paper just now.  How fucking stupid.

 

Also I know it's not his area of expertise, but Elon Musk isn't exactly a dumb guy so when someone like him says panicking is dumb, I tend to agree.

"If I want to make other's more serious about the issue than what they are, if they're being non chalant, then I will share them some of the panic type of articles.  If I want to make people less panicked, I will share some of the opposite articles. "

 

Is that why you find article from people who aren't medical experts and post videos from John Oliver?  To make people less panicked?  At least you admit to being an intellectually dishonest pseudo-intellectual.

3/10/20 9:43 PM
3/9/13
Posts: 4271
D241 -
Caladan - 
D241 -

There will definitely be people who have to eat crow in this thread, only time will tell.

 

I either for sure am one of them, or I for sure will be quoting some posters in the future.

 

I'm confident in time I'll be quoting instead of being quoted.

 

Patience.

I don't understand what your argument even is.

 

This is a crisis in China. This is a crisis in Italy and Iran.

 

You think it won't turn into a crisis here? Why? You haven't provided any reasoning for anything as far as I can tell.


All over this thread depending on how you feel, or how you want to feel, you can find articles to support that.  

 

If I want to make other's more serious about the issue than what they are, if they're being non chalant, then I will share them some of the panic type of articles.  If I want to make people less panicked, I will share some of the opposite articles. 

 

Have I talked to older people I work with to gauge their concern?  Yes

Have I talked to people who are more educated and more informed on certain areas than I am about this to get a good understanding of where I should stand? Yes.

 

Are you in China or a dangerous area?  No? Don'to panic, at least not yet.

Are you a man or woman 65yrs or older with any previous heart disease, respitory desease, previous health conditions?  No?  Don't panic.

 

Do you have loved ones who are older who go out to public places a lot and have health problems? 

 

I just try to look at where I stand in the logical scheme of things, and from my current point of view the coronavirus covid 19 is causinig direct impact moreso due to the panic than anything.  I barely was able to purchase a roll of toilet paper just now.  How fucking stupid.

 

Also I know it's not his area of expertise, but Elon Musk isn't exactly a dumb guy so when someone like him says panicking is dumb, I tend to agree.

Do you mind sharing some of the articles you use to make people less panicked? I think this thread could use it. 

 

At least, assuming the articles are written by experts in infectious diseases and it's not just some political bs or something.