OtherGround Forums Wuhan Coronavirus daily update counts: 10,192,727

3/11/20 10:41 PM
8/2/19
Posts: 993
jpm995 -
Detruthis -

numbers in isolation can cause panic, numbers in context don't tend to - for example Italy (a hot spot) has almost 10,000 cases of the virus … sounds worrying? then try this

Population of Italy around 60 million which means the virus has infected 0.0158% of the population or, to put it another way… if you live in Italy you are 99.9842% likely to NOT have the virus

A news report stating 99.98% do not have the virus is far less concerning than headlines saying 10,000 people has the virus and its increasing by 200 per day 

If thats true its hard to fathoms Merkel saying 70% of all Germans will have the virus by next year.

In 2009 100k Americans had H1N1.  By the end of 2010 it was somewhere around 50 MILLION.

 

Don't confuse your ignorance of epidemology with the reality of the situation.

3/11/20 10:44 PM
8/2/19
Posts: 994
NoNeed4aScreenName -
beerbelly -
NoNeed4aScreenName -
Stache -

'We are 10 days away from the hospitals getting creamed,' warns former homeland security adviser

The U.S. is a little more than a week away from a health care crisis related to the new coronavirus, according to the man who once advised President Donald Trump on how to respond to pandemics.

"We are 10 days from the hospitals getting creamed,” Tom Bossert, who was Trump’s homeland security adviser until he was ousted in 2018, told NBC News. Bossert was never replaced, and Trump eliminated the national security council jobs related to disease outbreaks.

In an op-ed in The Washington Post published Monday, Bossert said that unless the U.S. closes schools, halts public gatherings and takes other steps to reduce community transmission, the country is headed for the sort of crisis Italy is now facing, with hospitals overwhelmed by elderly people in need of critical care. 

“Simply put, as evidence of human-to-human transmission becomes clear in a community, officials must pull the trigger on aggressive interventions,” Bossert wrote. “Time matters. Two weeks of delay can mean the difference between success and failure. Public health experts learned this in 1918 when the Spanish flu killed 50 million to 100 million people around the globe. If we fail to take action, we will watch our health-care system be overwhelmed.”

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronavirus-updates-live-u-s-europe-brace-infection-spread-italy-n1153801/ncrd1154211#liveBlogHeader

 

If the hospital arent overwhelmed in 10 days this guy should lose his job.

 

The media should pay the price is this doesnt get as bad as they make it out to be. 

 

Edit: too bad it's an op/ed. 

You see, pricks like you have it easy.  We quarantine and it works, you cry it was no big deal to begin with and we tanked our economy for nothing because we'll never be 100% certain that's what contained a world wide pandemic.

 

What happens if it turns out the other way the quarantine wasnt necessary and you tanked your economy for nothing?

Do you not see China, Italy, South Korea, Iran, etc?  Either way the economy tanks.  The diffrence is that in one scenerio you end up with terrible gridlock and deaths.  In the other you manage both of those as best as you can.

3/11/20 10:47 PM
8/2/19
Posts: 995
NoNeed4aScreenName -
Stache -

'We are 10 days away from the hospitals getting creamed,' warns former homeland security adviser

The U.S. is a little more than a week away from a health care crisis related to the new coronavirus, according to the man who once advised President Donald Trump on how to respond to pandemics.

"We are 10 days from the hospitals getting creamed,” Tom Bossert, who was Trump’s homeland security adviser until he was ousted in 2018, told NBC News. Bossert was never replaced, and Trump eliminated the national security council jobs related to disease outbreaks.

In an op-ed in The Washington Post published Monday, Bossert said that unless the U.S. closes schools, halts public gatherings and takes other steps to reduce community transmission, the country is headed for the sort of crisis Italy is now facing, with hospitals overwhelmed by elderly people in need of critical care. 

“Simply put, as evidence of human-to-human transmission becomes clear in a community, officials must pull the trigger on aggressive interventions,” Bossert wrote. “Time matters. Two weeks of delay can mean the difference between success and failure. Public health experts learned this in 1918 when the Spanish flu killed 50 million to 100 million people around the globe. If we fail to take action, we will watch our health-care system be overwhelmed.”

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronavirus-updates-live-u-s-europe-brace-infection-spread-italy-n1153801/ncrd1154211#liveBlogHeader

 

If the hospital arent overwhelmed in 10 days this guy should lose his job.

 

The media should pay the price is this doesnt get as bad as they make it out to be. 

 

Edit: too bad it's an op/ed. 

We've taken some of the measures he's suggested.  So if hospitals aren't overwhelmed that won't demonstrate anything, as it could be due to those measures.

 

I've now read a few of your posts and it seems that you're they type of person who confuses the strength of your conviction with the strength of your argument.  Take some time and actually think a little.

3/11/20 11:26 PM
12/28/14
Posts: 6386

 

3/11/20 11:59 PM
4/3/08
Posts: 7778

According to that link “by country” the highest rate is 200 infected per million population (in Italy). Do the experts feel it will go higher than that?

3/12/20 12:11 AM
8/2/19
Posts: 1000
Beninger -

According to that link “by country” the highest rate is 200 infected per million population (in Italy). Do the experts feel it will go higher than that?

It depends on a lot of things but one expert, albeit earlier on, said that 40-70% of the world will be infected.  An infectious disease expert yesterday said 90 million in USA alone will be infected. To put things in historical perspective, the H1N1 virus had similar numbers to coronavirus about 2 months in.  In 2009 it had infected 100,000 in the USA.  In 2010 that number was 50,000,000 (50 million). 

 

Most humans have a very very very poor sense of understanding of exponential growth.  Unfortunately this will be one hell of a way for them to learn about it.

Edited: 3/12/20 12:11 AM
4/27/18
Posts: 2328
RockTheVote -
NoNeed4aScreenName -
Stache -

'We are 10 days away from the hospitals getting creamed,' warns former homeland security adviser

The U.S. is a little more than a week away from a health care crisis related to the new coronavirus, according to the man who once advised President Donald Trump on how to respond to pandemics.

"We are 10 days from the hospitals getting creamed,” Tom Bossert, who was Trump’s homeland security adviser until he was ousted in 2018, told NBC News. Bossert was never replaced, and Trump eliminated the national security council jobs related to disease outbreaks.

In an op-ed in The Washington Post published Monday, Bossert said that unless the U.S. closes schools, halts public gatherings and takes other steps to reduce community transmission, the country is headed for the sort of crisis Italy is now facing, with hospitals overwhelmed by elderly people in need of critical care. 

“Simply put, as evidence of human-to-human transmission becomes clear in a community, officials must pull the trigger on aggressive interventions,” Bossert wrote. “Time matters. Two weeks of delay can mean the difference between success and failure. Public health experts learned this in 1918 when the Spanish flu killed 50 million to 100 million people around the globe. If we fail to take action, we will watch our health-care system be overwhelmed.”

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronavirus-updates-live-u-s-europe-brace-infection-spread-italy-n1153801/ncrd1154211#liveBlogHeader

 

If the hospital arent overwhelmed in 10 days this guy should lose his job.

 

The media should pay the price is this doesnt get as bad as they make it out to be. 

 

Edit: too bad it's an op/ed. 

The NBA just suspended their season. Smart people are worried about this. 

or they are panicking and overreacting. and you may want to define smart.

 

3/12/20 12:13 AM
4/27/18
Posts: 2329
jspeed -
Beninger -

According to that link “by country” the highest rate is 200 infected per million population (in Italy). Do the experts feel it will go higher than that?

It depends on a lot of things but one expert, albeit earlier on, said that 40-70% of the world will be infected.  An infectious disease expert yesterday said 90 million in USA alone will be infected. To put things in historical perspective, the H1N1 virus had similar numbers to coronavirus about 2 months in.  In 2009 it had infected 100,000 in the USA.  In 2010 that number was 50,000,000 (50 million). 

 

Most humans have a very very very poor sense of understanding of exponential growth.  Unfortunately this will be one hell of a way for them to learn about it.

BINGO!

and they didnt shut down the world and the hospitals werent overrun.

Whats the difference this time?

 

3/12/20 12:17 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 49006
NoNeed4aScreenName - 
beerbelly -
NoNeed4aScreenName -
Stache -

'We are 10 days away from the hospitals getting creamed,' warns former homeland security adviser

The U.S. is a little more than a week away from a health care crisis related to the new coronavirus, according to the man who once advised President Donald Trump on how to respond to pandemics.

"We are 10 days from the hospitals getting creamed,” Tom Bossert, who was Trump’s homeland security adviser until he was ousted in 2018, told NBC News. Bossert was never replaced, and Trump eliminated the national security council jobs related to disease outbreaks.

In an op-ed in The Washington Post published Monday, Bossert said that unless the U.S. closes schools, halts public gatherings and takes other steps to reduce community transmission, the country is headed for the sort of crisis Italy is now facing, with hospitals overwhelmed by elderly people in need of critical care. 

“Simply put, as evidence of human-to-human transmission becomes clear in a community, officials must pull the trigger on aggressive interventions,” Bossert wrote. “Time matters. Two weeks of delay can mean the difference between success and failure. Public health experts learned this in 1918 when the Spanish flu killed 50 million to 100 million people around the globe. If we fail to take action, we will watch our health-care system be overwhelmed.”

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronavirus-updates-live-u-s-europe-brace-infection-spread-italy-n1153801/ncrd1154211#liveBlogHeader

 

If the hospital arent overwhelmed in 10 days this guy should lose his job.

 

The media should pay the price is this doesnt get as bad as they make it out to be. 

 

Edit: too bad it's an op/ed. 

You see, pricks like you have it easy.  We quarantine and it works, you cry it was no big deal to begin with and we tanked our economy for nothing because we'll never be 100% certain that's what contained a world wide pandemic.

 

What happens if it turns out the other way the quarantine wasnt necessary and you tanked your economy for nothing?


China cares about their economy much more than their people.  I think they chose the lesser of two evils with quarantine and containment.  Apparently other nations are going down this path too.   Given the contagion factor and the CFR it seems to be the best way to avoid a complete collapse.  But I suppose it's possible either approach to the problem leads to a collapse.  One just gets there in a more dramatic fashion.   I am hoping for the best still.

3/12/20 12:18 AM
8/2/19
Posts: 1001
Strangleu -
jspeed -
Beninger -

According to that link “by country” the highest rate is 200 infected per million population (in Italy). Do the experts feel it will go higher than that?

It depends on a lot of things but one expert, albeit earlier on, said that 40-70% of the world will be infected.  An infectious disease expert yesterday said 90 million in USA alone will be infected. To put things in historical perspective, the H1N1 virus had similar numbers to coronavirus about 2 months in.  In 2009 it had infected 100,000 in the USA.  In 2010 that number was 50,000,000 (50 million). 

 

Most humans have a very very very poor sense of understanding of exponential growth.  Unfortunately this will be one hell of a way for them to learn about it.

BINGO!

and they didnt shut down the world and the hospitals werent overrun.

Whats the difference this time?

 

Well since last time about 200,000 people died world-wide and about 17,000 in the USA alone... I'm guessing everyone is trying to prevent something like that from happening?

3/12/20 12:41 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 94426
jspeed -
NoNeed4aScreenName -
Stache -

'We are 10 days away from the hospitals getting creamed,' warns former homeland security adviser

The U.S. is a little more than a week away from a health care crisis related to the new coronavirus, according to the man who once advised President Donald Trump on how to respond to pandemics.

"We are 10 days from the hospitals getting creamed,” Tom Bossert, who was Trump’s homeland security adviser until he was ousted in 2018, told NBC News. Bossert was never replaced, and Trump eliminated the national security council jobs related to disease outbreaks.

In an op-ed in The Washington Post published Monday, Bossert said that unless the U.S. closes schools, halts public gatherings and takes other steps to reduce community transmission, the country is headed for the sort of crisis Italy is now facing, with hospitals overwhelmed by elderly people in need of critical care. 

“Simply put, as evidence of human-to-human transmission becomes clear in a community, officials must pull the trigger on aggressive interventions,” Bossert wrote. “Time matters. Two weeks of delay can mean the difference between success and failure. Public health experts learned this in 1918 when the Spanish flu killed 50 million to 100 million people around the globe. If we fail to take action, we will watch our health-care system be overwhelmed.”

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronavirus-updates-live-u-s-europe-brace-infection-spread-italy-n1153801/ncrd1154211#liveBlogHeader

 

If the hospital arent overwhelmed in 10 days this guy should lose his job.

 

The media should pay the price is this doesnt get as bad as they make it out to be. 

 

Edit: too bad it's an op/ed. 

We've taken some of the measures he's suggested.  So if hospitals aren't overwhelmed that won't demonstrate anything, as it could be due to those measures.

 

I've now read a few of your posts and it seems that you're they type of person who confuses the strength of your conviction with the strength of your argument.  Take some time and actually think a little.

Burn

3/12/20 12:46 AM
11/20/09
Posts: 42787

D241 here trying to remove the panic and bring hope and positivity.....

 

63 year old with diabeetus who has the corona virus, is doing fine and on the mend.  

 

3/12/20 12:46 AM
11/20/09
Posts: 42788

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-latest-103-year-old-woman-recovers-wuhan-hubei-china-a9393991.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&fbclid=IwAR031Jd-ORcnEyrwkv8-gLywitkep0u-G-XLihoqQLaD9kwsDNHz5vrAc_o#Echobox=1583932462

3/12/20 12:49 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 49009
jspeed - 
jpm995 -
Detruthis -

numbers in isolation can cause panic, numbers in context don't tend to - for example Italy (a hot spot) has almost 10,000 cases of the virus … sounds worrying? then try this

Population of Italy around 60 million which means the virus has infected 0.0158% of the population or, to put it another way… if you live in Italy you are 99.9842% likely to NOT have the virus

A news report stating 99.98% do not have the virus is far less concerning than headlines saying 10,000 people has the virus and its increasing by 200 per day 

If thats true its hard to fathoms Merkel saying 70% of all Germans will have the virus by next year.

In 2009 100k Americans had H1N1.  By the end of 2010 it was somewhere around 50 MILLION.

 

Don't confuse your ignorance of epidemology with the reality of the situation.


Well, Dr Anthony Fauci, the leading epidemiologist in the country and representing the administration came out today and said their calculations show probably 45% of the country will be infected.  That.s 146 million.  Up  until today Fauci was playing it down trying to calm fears.

3/12/20 12:54 AM
7/31/09
Posts: 6370
NoNeed4aScreenName -
beerbelly -
NoNeed4aScreenName -
Stache -

'We are 10 days away from the hospitals getting creamed,' warns former homeland security adviser

The U.S. is a little more than a week away from a health care crisis related to the new coronavirus, according to the man who once advised President Donald Trump on how to respond to pandemics.

"We are 10 days from the hospitals getting creamed,” Tom Bossert, who was Trump’s homeland security adviser until he was ousted in 2018, told NBC News. Bossert was never replaced, and Trump eliminated the national security council jobs related to disease outbreaks.

In an op-ed in The Washington Post published Monday, Bossert said that unless the U.S. closes schools, halts public gatherings and takes other steps to reduce community transmission, the country is headed for the sort of crisis Italy is now facing, with hospitals overwhelmed by elderly people in need of critical care. 

“Simply put, as evidence of human-to-human transmission becomes clear in a community, officials must pull the trigger on aggressive interventions,” Bossert wrote. “Time matters. Two weeks of delay can mean the difference between success and failure. Public health experts learned this in 1918 when the Spanish flu killed 50 million to 100 million people around the globe. If we fail to take action, we will watch our health-care system be overwhelmed.”

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronavirus-updates-live-u-s-europe-brace-infection-spread-italy-n1153801/ncrd1154211#liveBlogHeader

 

If the hospital arent overwhelmed in 10 days this guy should lose his job.

 

The media should pay the price is this doesnt get as bad as they make it out to be. 

 

Edit: too bad it's an op/ed. 

You see, pricks like you have it easy.  We quarantine and it works, you cry it was no big deal to begin with and we tanked our economy for nothing because we'll never be 100% certain that's what contained a world wide pandemic.

 

What happens if it turns out the other way the quarantine wasnt necessary and you tanked your economy for nothing?

So was the quarantine in China necessary?  Were the complete lack of protective measures taken by Iran the correct route? 

3/12/20 4:53 AM
11/20/09
Posts: 42792

I've seen multiple states offering $4500 to $7000 for volunteers for the corona virus as test subjects to help find a cure. 

 

That's very good news.  I imagine whoever finds/creates the cure, will be set for life including their next 5 generations.  Incentive :)

3/12/20 6:46 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 19686

Coronavirus Cases:

126,673 

view by country

Deaths:

4,641

Recovered:

68,327

ACTIVE CASES 

53,705

Currently Infected Patients

47,995 (89%) 

in Mild Condition


5,710 (11%) 

Serious or Critica

Edited: 3/12/20 6:49 AM
6/24/07
Posts: 3395

I’m going to preface this by saying that in no way am I doubting the severity of this. But, who’s to say that the virus hasn’t been in the US for a couple of months and people are infected on a mass scale? Yet, it just hasn’t been that severe. People thought they had a cold and went about their business. They are just now starting to test for it in hospitals. The biggest argument I’ve seen is that “smart people are worrying, so I should”. I think governments and smart people are worrying out of fear of backlash “in case” this goes south. We live in a society of blame. If they do nothing and it goes bad, people will look to blame someone.

3/12/20 7:11 AM
1/30/16
Posts: 3265
Hilldo -

I’m going to preface this by saying that in no way am I doubting the severity of this. But, who’s to say that the virus hasn’t been in the US for a couple of months and people are infected on a mass scale? Yet, it just hasn’t been that severe. People thought they had a cold and went about their business. They are just now starting to test for it in hospitals. The biggest argument I’ve seen is that “smart people are worrying, so I should”. I think governments and smart people are worrying out of fear of backlash “in case” this goes south. We live in a society of blame. If they do nothing and it goes bad, people will look to blame someone.

I agree, I find it hard to believe it just magically appeard in the states 2-3 weeks ago just from someone traveling back from China or Italy.

Theres just no way that it started in China 3+ months ago and it took that long to come over.

3/12/20 7:12 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 49014
Hilldo - 

I’m going to preface this by saying that in no way am I doubting the severity of this. But, who’s to say that the virus hasn’t been in the US for a couple of months and people are infected on a mass scale? Yet, it just hasn’t been that severe. People thought they had a cold and went about their business. They are just now starting to test for it in hospitals. The biggest argument I’ve seen is that “smart people are worrying, so I should”. I think governments and smart people are worrying out of fear of backlash “in case” this goes south. We live in a society of blame. If they do nothing and it goes bad, people will look to blame someone.


Unfortunately there is no evidence it would affect Americans less than other countries.   Even without testing anyone, once the hospitals start becoming overrun with critical respiratory patients you know you have a problem.

3/12/20 7:15 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 49015
danybayamon23 - 
Hilldo -

I’m going to preface this by saying that in no way am I doubting the severity of this. But, who’s to say that the virus hasn’t been in the US for a couple of months and people are infected on a mass scale? Yet, it just hasn’t been that severe. People thought they had a cold and went about their business. They are just now starting to test for it in hospitals. The biggest argument I’ve seen is that “smart people are worrying, so I should”. I think governments and smart people are worrying out of fear of backlash “in case” this goes south. We live in a society of blame. If they do nothing and it goes bad, people will look to blame someone.

I agree, I find it hard to believe it just magically appeard in the states 2-3 weeks ago just from someone traveling back from China or Italy.

Theres just no way that it started in China 3+ months ago and it took that long to come over.


The way I've seen it explained is at first you have a few cases here and there.  Then a few more.  Then a cluster here and there.  Then it explodes exponentially.  Two weeks ago Italy was business as usual with the virus a background news story.  Now the whole country is locked down with their healthcare system completely overrun.

3/12/20 8:03 AM
8/2/19
Posts: 1005
danybayamon23 -
Hilldo -

I’m going to preface this by saying that in no way am I doubting the severity of this. But, who’s to say that the virus hasn’t been in the US for a couple of months and people are infected on a mass scale? Yet, it just hasn’t been that severe. People thought they had a cold and went about their business. They are just now starting to test for it in hospitals. The biggest argument I’ve seen is that “smart people are worrying, so I should”. I think governments and smart people are worrying out of fear of backlash “in case” this goes south. We live in a society of blame. If they do nothing and it goes bad, people will look to blame someone.

I agree, I find it hard to believe it just magically appeard in the states 2-3 weeks ago just from someone traveling back from China or Italy.

Theres just no way that it started in China 3+ months ago and it took that long to come over.

Well that's not what happened... lol

 

It appeared in the USA mid-to-end of Janurary.  Around the same time China was reporting only ~500 cases.  It moved precisely how experts thought it would move.

3/12/20 8:05 AM
4/3/08
Posts: 7779
jspeed -
Beninger -

According to that link “by country” the highest rate is 200 infected per million population (in Italy). Do the experts feel it will go higher than that?

It depends on a lot of things but one expert, albeit earlier on, said that 40-70% of the world will be infected.  An infectious disease expert yesterday said 90 million in USA alone will be infected. To put things in historical perspective, the H1N1 virus had similar numbers to coronavirus about 2 months in.  In 2009 it had infected 100,000 in the USA.  In 2010 that number was 50,000,000 (50 million). 

 

Most humans have a very very very poor sense of understanding of exponential growth.  Unfortunately this will be one hell of a way for them to learn about it.

I thought this wasn’t supposed to be as contagious as the flu?

3/12/20 8:10 AM
11/21/15
Posts: 4018
Hilldo -

I’m going to preface this by saying that in no way am I doubting the severity of this. But, who’s to say that the virus hasn’t been in the US for a couple of months and people are infected on a mass scale? Yet, it just hasn’t been that severe. People thought they had a cold and went about their business. They are just now starting to test for it in hospitals. The biggest argument I’ve seen is that “smart people are worrying, so I should”. I think governments and smart people are worrying out of fear of backlash “in case” this goes south. We live in a society of blame. If they do nothing and it goes bad, people will look to blame someone.

The CDC has admitted that their have been a number of deaths in the US originally as pneumonia, that were actually the result of Coronavirus.

3/12/20 8:17 AM
10/16/10
Posts: 29836