OtherGround Forums Wuhan Coronavirus daily update counts: 10,192,727

3/13/20 12:08 AM
11/20/09
Posts: 42827

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dont-panic-says-us-woman-recovered-coronavirus-055155667.html

 

The 37-year-old, who has a PhD in bioengineering, said she was sharing her story "to give people a little bit of hope" through her own relatively mild experience with the infection, which she treated herself from home.

But, she added, "obviously, it's not something to be completely nonchalant about, because there are a lot of people who are elderly or have underlying health conditions.

"That means that we need to be extra vigilant about staying home, isolating ourselves from others."

This week, US health authorities citing Chinese data said 80 percent of cases have been mild, while the remaining serious cases that required hospitalization affected mainly people over 60 and those with conditions like diabetes, heart disease or lung disease.

- The party -

Schneider first began experiencing flu-like symptoms on February 25, three days after going to a party that was later identified as the place where at least five other people also got infected.

"I woke up and I was feeling tired, but it was nothing more than what you normally feel when you have to get up and go to work, and I had been very busy the previous weekend," she told AFP in an interview Wednesday.

By midday, however, she felt a headache coming on, along with a fever and body aches. She decided to leave the office of the biotechnology company where she works as a marketing manager, and went home.

3/13/20 12:12 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 49046
D241 - 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dont-panic-says-us-woman-recovered-coronavirus-055155667.html

 

The 37-year-old, who has a PhD in bioengineering, said she was sharing her story "to give people a little bit of hope" through her own relatively mild experience with the infection, which she treated herself from home.

But, she added, "obviously, it's not something to be completely nonchalant about, because there are a lot of people who are elderly or have underlying health conditions.

"That means that we need to be extra vigilant about staying home, isolating ourselves from others."

This week, US health authorities citing Chinese data said 80 percent of cases have been mild, while the remaining serious cases that required hospitalization affected mainly people over 60 and those with conditions like diabetes, heart disease or lung disease.

- The party -

Schneider first began experiencing flu-like symptoms on February 25, three days after going to a party that was later identified as the place where at least five other people also got infected.

"I woke up and I was feeling tired, but it was nothing more than what you normally feel when you have to get up and go to work, and I had been very busy the previous weekend," she told AFP in an interview Wednesday.

By midday, however, she felt a headache coming on, along with a fever and body aches. She decided to leave the office of the biotechnology company where she works as a marketing manager, and went home.


good read, thanks

3/13/20 12:15 AM
12/9/13
Posts: 27313

3/13/20 1:27 AM
2/9/07
Posts: 1136
jspeed -
cfochs -

So any guesses on how long it will take to hit 200k?

Reported?  By next Friday.

Tuesday 

 

3/13/20 6:07 AM
4/19/09
Posts: 32997

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian took to Twitter on Friday to double down on an unproven claim that the US military brought 

the new coronavirus

 to the central city of Wuhan, where the outbreak began.

Zhao urged his more than 287,000 followers in two tweets on Friday morning to widely share an allegation from a Canada-based conspiracy website that the coronavirus – which has become a global pandemic – originated in the US rather than the Wuhan seafood market that is thought to be its source.

“This is so astonishing that it changed many things I used to believe in,” he wrote on his official account.

The US embassy in Beijing did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Zhao’s tweets.

The allegation was apparently linked to the US Army’s participation in the international 

Military World Games

 held in Wuhan in October, which drew competitors from more than 100 countries.

the new coronavirus

 to the central city of Wuhan, where the outbreak began.

Zhao urged his more than 287,000 followers in two tweets on Friday morning to widely share an allegation from a Canada-based conspiracy website that the coronavirus – which has become a global pandemic – originated in the US rather than the Wuhan seafood market that is thought to be its source.

“This is so astonishing that it changed many things I used to believe in,” he wrote on his official account.

The US embassy in Beijing did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Zhao’s tweets.

The allegation was apparently linked to the US Army’s participation in the international 

Military World Games

 held in Wuhan in October, which drew competitors from more than 100 countries.

 

Coronavirus: From mysterious origins to a global threat

The incendiary and unverified claim from Zhao – a prolific tweeter promoted to deputy director general of the foreign ministry’s information department in February – came despite a widespread backlash to his first tweets on the subject late on Thursday.

“When did patient zero begin in the US? How many people are infected? What are the names of the hospitals? It might be the US Army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan,” Zhao wrote on the platform, which is inaccessible to most in China, on Thursday. “Be transparent! Make public your data! US owe us an explanation!”

 

3/13/20 6:11 AM
12/9/13
Posts: 27316

3/13/20 7:15 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 22133


https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/least-80-000-people-died-flu-last-winter-u-s-n913486

At least 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S., CDC says

The U.S. government estimates that 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter — the disease's highest death toll in at least four decades.

In recent years, flu-related deaths have ranged from about 12,000 to 56,000, according to the CDC.

3/13/20 10:54 AM
8/2/19
Posts: 1040
FreightTrain -


https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/least-80-000-people-died-flu-last-winter-u-s-n913486

At least 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S., CDC says

The U.S. government estimates that 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter — the disease's highest death toll in at least four decades.

In recent years, flu-related deaths have ranged from about 12,000 to 56,000, according to the CDC.

"Ciao!  Please don'ta worry abouta what's going on over here in Italia.  20k people die from flu each year here!"

 

-Italian FreightTrain

3/13/20 11:06 AM
1/12/07
Posts: 17144
jspeed -
FreightTrain -


https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/least-80-000-people-died-flu-last-winter-u-s-n913486

At least 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S., CDC says

The U.S. government estimates that 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter — the disease's highest death toll in at least four decades.

In recent years, flu-related deaths have ranged from about 12,000 to 56,000, according to the CDC.

"Ciao!  Please don'ta worry abouta what's going on over here in Italia.  20k people die from flu each year here!"

 

-Italian FreightTrain

Perspective though. Think analytically.

3/13/20 11:38 AM
4/27/18
Posts: 2332
turducken -

How dumb do you have to be to look at a static snapshot of current infection stats as if that is at all descriptive of the danger.  If Russia was launching a nuke, would we sit around and conclude at that moment that guns are more of a threat because they kill countless thousands more Americans than any nuke ever has?  

 

The characteristics of this virus are such that it brings the potential for exponential growth and the overwhelming of health care systems, and that is just an indisuputable fact that is being demonstrated in real time. 

 

Whether the death rate ends up being 0.6% or 2.6% is not really determinative of how bad it can be, the potential for overwhelming hospitals is independent from that. A higher death rate is obviously worse, the upper estimates are horrifying and hopefully that's not the case, but that's not the major risk factor from a societal perspective. You want to be able to go to your hospital if you get in a car accident and not find that the OR and ICU can't help you because they're already beyond capacity. 

 

You have to be a goddamn moron not to be able to see why this necessitates preventative action.  If we froze the outbreak right now of course it would pale in comparison to the flu, but that's not at all the point.

50,000,000 americans got h1n1 in 2010.

did it overwhelm the healthcare sytsem then?

curious. cause i dont remember that.

But all of a sudden we have several thousand cases of wuflu and its going to break the system?

Hard to believe.

 

3/13/20 12:10 PM
8/2/19
Posts: 1041
Strangleu -
turducken -

How dumb do you have to be to look at a static snapshot of current infection stats as if that is at all descriptive of the danger.  If Russia was launching a nuke, would we sit around and conclude at that moment that guns are more of a threat because they kill countless thousands more Americans than any nuke ever has?  

 

The characteristics of this virus are such that it brings the potential for exponential growth and the overwhelming of health care systems, and that is just an indisuputable fact that is being demonstrated in real time. 

 

Whether the death rate ends up being 0.6% or 2.6% is not really determinative of how bad it can be, the potential for overwhelming hospitals is independent from that. A higher death rate is obviously worse, the upper estimates are horrifying and hopefully that's not the case, but that's not the major risk factor from a societal perspective. You want to be able to go to your hospital if you get in a car accident and not find that the OR and ICU can't help you because they're already beyond capacity. 

 

You have to be a goddamn moron not to be able to see why this necessitates preventative action.  If we froze the outbreak right now of course it would pale in comparison to the flu, but that's not at all the point.

50,000,000 americans got h1n1 in 2010.

did it overwhelm the healthcare sytsem then?

curious. cause i dont remember that.

But all of a sudden we have several thousand cases of wuflu and its going to break the system?

Hard to believe.

 

The h1n1 had a death rate around 0.02%  (of those who tested positive) and had 17,000 deaths.  This one has around a 3% death rate.  That means with 50,000,000 infected you'd have 2.5 Million deaths.

 

It's not the same thing.

3/13/20 12:21 PM
12/9/13
Posts: 27321

Trump will announce martial law??

Edited: 3/13/20 12:34 PM
4/27/14
Posts: 23335

Useful updated every minute dashboard on COVID-19 situation: https://ncov2019.live/data

 

3/13/20 12:36 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 49057
Morpheus1976 - 

Trump will announce martial law??


lol no, a national emergency.  That opens up Fema money to deal with the harder hit areas.

3/13/20 12:41 PM
12/2/05
Posts: 14343
Strangleu -
turducken -

How dumb do you have to be to look at a static snapshot of current infection stats as if that is at all descriptive of the danger.  If Russia was launching a nuke, would we sit around and conclude at that moment that guns are more of a threat because they kill countless thousands more Americans than any nuke ever has?  

 

The characteristics of this virus are such that it brings the potential for exponential growth and the overwhelming of health care systems, and that is just an indisuputable fact that is being demonstrated in real time. 

 

Whether the death rate ends up being 0.6% or 2.6% is not really determinative of how bad it can be, the potential for overwhelming hospitals is independent from that. A higher death rate is obviously worse, the upper estimates are horrifying and hopefully that's not the case, but that's not the major risk factor from a societal perspective. You want to be able to go to your hospital if you get in a car accident and not find that the OR and ICU can't help you because they're already beyond capacity. 

 

You have to be a goddamn moron not to be able to see why this necessitates preventative action.  If we froze the outbreak right now of course it would pale in comparison to the flu, but that's not at all the point.

50,000,000 americans got h1n1 in 2010.

did it overwhelm the healthcare sytsem then?

curious. cause i dont remember that.

But all of a sudden we have several thousand cases of wuflu and its going to break the system?

Hard to believe.

 

Different illnessses take different courses.  Right now in Italy, they have 12,000 active cases (1100 in serious condition). Only 1300 have recovered in 3 weeks.  I understand that half of those 12,000 are only days old, but still shows how quickly this can grow and outstrip resources. 

3/13/20 12:42 PM
9/18/12
Posts: 9152
Morpheus1976 -

Lmao

3/13/20 12:45 PM
12/2/05
Posts: 14344
The Stewed Owl -

Useful updated every minute dashboard on COVID-19 situation: https://ncov2019.live/data

 

I like this one.  especially their daily news at the very bottom broken into regions.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

3/13/20 1:07 PM
4/27/14
Posts: 23337

Ars Technica has a good overall website on COVID-19:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/

3/13/20 1:14 PM
3/28/02
Posts: 7631
turducken -

How dumb do you have to be to look at a static snapshot of current infection stats as if that is at all descriptive of the danger.  If Russia was launching a nuke, would we sit around and conclude at that moment that guns are more of a threat because they kill countless thousands more Americans than any nuke ever has?  

 

The characteristics of this virus are such that it brings the potential for exponential growth and the overwhelming of health care systems, and that is just an indisuputable fact that is being demonstrated in real time. 

 

Whether the death rate ends up being 0.6% or 2.6% is not really determinative of how bad it can be, the potential for overwhelming hospitals is independent from that. A higher death rate is obviously worse, the upper estimates are horrifying and hopefully that's not the case, but that's not the major risk factor from a societal perspective. You want to be able to go to your hospital if you get in a car accident and not find that the OR and ICU can't help you because they're already beyond capacity. 

 

You have to be a goddamn moron not to be able to see why this necessitates preventative action.  If we froze the outbreak right now of course it would pale in comparison to the flu, but that's not at all the point.

in fairness one needs to either trust the experts (and ignore Trump)

or be able to work through the key assumptions/math/data in the various models that forecast the potential range of severity.......

If you dont trust the experts, then you need to be fairly sophisticated to work through the analysis to see this can be pretty ugly

3/13/20 1:25 PM
8/2/19
Posts: 1048
The Stewed Owl -

Ars Technica has a good overall website on COVID-19:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/

Wikipedia is actually useful and up-to-date.

 

You can also click on each individual country to get taken to its coronavirus outbreak page that has detailed information regarding that countries particular situation.

3/13/20 1:34 PM
12/9/13
Posts: 27330
Soup and Beer -
Morpheus1976 - 

Trump will announce martial law??


lol no, a national emergency.  That opens up Fema money to deal with the harder hit areas.

aha, i get it

3/13/20 1:34 PM
4/3/08
Posts: 7786
jspeed -
Strangleu -
turducken -

How dumb do you have to be to look at a static snapshot of current infection stats as if that is at all descriptive of the danger.  If Russia was launching a nuke, would we sit around and conclude at that moment that guns are more of a threat because they kill countless thousands more Americans than any nuke ever has?  

 

The characteristics of this virus are such that it brings the potential for exponential growth and the overwhelming of health care systems, and that is just an indisuputable fact that is being demonstrated in real time. 

 

Whether the death rate ends up being 0.6% or 2.6% is not really determinative of how bad it can be, the potential for overwhelming hospitals is independent from that. A higher death rate is obviously worse, the upper estimates are horrifying and hopefully that's not the case, but that's not the major risk factor from a societal perspective. You want to be able to go to your hospital if you get in a car accident and not find that the OR and ICU can't help you because they're already beyond capacity. 

 

You have to be a goddamn moron not to be able to see why this necessitates preventative action.  If we froze the outbreak right now of course it would pale in comparison to the flu, but that's not at all the point.

50,000,000 americans got h1n1 in 2010.

did it overwhelm the healthcare sytsem then?

curious. cause i dont remember that.

But all of a sudden we have several thousand cases of wuflu and its going to break the system?

Hard to believe.

 

The h1n1 had a death rate around 0.02%  (of those who tested positive) and had 17,000 deaths.  This one has around a 3% death rate.  That means with 50,000,000 infected you'd have 2.5 Million deaths.

 

It's not the same thing.

274k were bad enough to be hospitalized for swine flu. I don’t think we have enough information on the number, so far, that have actually contracted coronavirus. We are getting our numbers from positive tests, no? Are the majority of those tests of people bad enough to be admitted to hospitals? Shouldn’t we be comparing hospitalizations to deaths, instead of a cdc estimate of total people sick? How do we know there aren’t more people who have gotten sick but weren’t bad enough to be hospitalized, like the vast majority of people that contract the flu?

3/13/20 1:48 PM
1/7/09
Posts: 15757
Strangleu -
turducken -

How dumb do you have to be to look at a static snapshot of current infection stats as if that is at all descriptive of the danger.  If Russia was launching a nuke, would we sit around and conclude at that moment that guns are more of a threat because they kill countless thousands more Americans than any nuke ever has?  

 

The characteristics of this virus are such that it brings the potential for exponential growth and the overwhelming of health care systems, and that is just an indisuputable fact that is being demonstrated in real time. 

 

Whether the death rate ends up being 0.6% or 2.6% is not really determinative of how bad it can be, the potential for overwhelming hospitals is independent from that. A higher death rate is obviously worse, the upper estimates are horrifying and hopefully that's not the case, but that's not the major risk factor from a societal perspective. You want to be able to go to your hospital if you get in a car accident and not find that the OR and ICU can't help you because they're already beyond capacity. 

 

You have to be a goddamn moron not to be able to see why this necessitates preventative action.  If we froze the outbreak right now of course it would pale in comparison to the flu, but that's not at all the point.

50,000,000 americans got h1n1 in 2010.

did it overwhelm the healthcare sytsem then?

curious. cause i dont remember that.

But all of a sudden we have several thousand cases of wuflu and its going to break the system?

Hard to believe.

 

They're not the same virus.

 

Go look up the percentage of cases requiring hospitalization and compare.  Look up the percentage of critical cases and compare.  Look up the average length of ICU stay required and compare.  In every single instance, coronavirus is far worse and impacts the healthcare system at a MUCH greater rate.

 

Even at absolute best case estimates coronavirus has a fatality rate many many times higher, although getting into deaths is not even necessary when looking at the impact on healthcare systems.

3/13/20 1:58 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 98392
jspeed - 
Strangleu -
turducken -

How dumb do you have to be to look at a static snapshot of current infection stats as if that is at all descriptive of the danger.  If Russia was launching a nuke, would we sit around and conclude at that moment that guns are more of a threat because they kill countless thousands more Americans than any nuke ever has?  

 

The characteristics of this virus are such that it brings the potential for exponential growth and the overwhelming of health care systems, and that is just an indisuputable fact that is being demonstrated in real time. 

 

Whether the death rate ends up being 0.6% or 2.6% is not really determinative of how bad it can be, the potential for overwhelming hospitals is independent from that. A higher death rate is obviously worse, the upper estimates are horrifying and hopefully that's not the case, but that's not the major risk factor from a societal perspective. You want to be able to go to your hospital if you get in a car accident and not find that the OR and ICU can't help you because they're already beyond capacity. 

 

You have to be a goddamn moron not to be able to see why this necessitates preventative action.  If we froze the outbreak right now of course it would pale in comparison to the flu, but that's not at all the point.

50,000,000 americans got h1n1 in 2010.

did it overwhelm the healthcare sytsem then?

curious. cause i dont remember that.

But all of a sudden we have several thousand cases of wuflu and its going to break the system?

Hard to believe.

 

The h1n1 had a death rate around 0.02%  (of those who tested positive) and had 17,000 deaths.  This one has around a 3% death rate.  That means with 50,000,000 infected you'd have 2.5 Million deaths.

 

It's not the same thing.


That 3% figure is very likely inaccurate and the actual mortality rate is likely lower.  

We don't really know how many people have been infected, we only know how many have been tested and confirmed positive.  The total number of cases is likely much more than that because a lot of people will not develop symptoms severe enough for concern and testing.  

 

Edited: 3/13/20 2:03 PM
4/3/08
Posts: 7787
Trust -
jspeed - 
Strangleu -
turducken -

How dumb do you have to be to look at a static snapshot of current infection stats as if that is at all descriptive of the danger.  If Russia was launching a nuke, would we sit around and conclude at that moment that guns are more of a threat because they kill countless thousands more Americans than any nuke ever has?  

 

The characteristics of this virus are such that it brings the potential for exponential growth and the overwhelming of health care systems, and that is just an indisuputable fact that is being demonstrated in real time. 

 

Whether the death rate ends up being 0.6% or 2.6% is not really determinative of how bad it can be, the potential for overwhelming hospitals is independent from that. A higher death rate is obviously worse, the upper estimates are horrifying and hopefully that's not the case, but that's not the major risk factor from a societal perspective. You want to be able to go to your hospital if you get in a car accident and not find that the OR and ICU can't help you because they're already beyond capacity. 

 

You have to be a goddamn moron not to be able to see why this necessitates preventative action.  If we froze the outbreak right now of course it would pale in comparison to the flu, but that's not at all the point.

50,000,000 americans got h1n1 in 2010.

did it overwhelm the healthcare sytsem then?

curious. cause i dont remember that.

But all of a sudden we have several thousand cases of wuflu and its going to break the system?

Hard to believe.

 

The h1n1 had a death rate around 0.02%  (of those who tested positive) and had 17,000 deaths.  This one has around a 3% death rate.  That means with 50,000,000 infected you'd have 2.5 Million deaths.

 

It's not the same thing.

 

That 3% figure is very likely inaccurate and the actual mortality rate is likely lower.  

We don't really know how many people have been infected, we only know how many have been tested and confirmed positive.  The total number of cases is likely much more than that because a lot of people will not develop symptoms severe enough for concern and testing.  

 

An overall case fatality proportion of 2.3% has been reported among confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China. [9] However, the majority of these cases were among hospitalized patients and therefore this estimate of mortality is likely biased upward.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html