OtherGround Forums Wuhan Coronavirus daily update counts: 10,192,727

Edited: 3/15/20 9:57 AM
2/4/09
Posts: 10442

Lol first result when I searched the demographics based on age

 

Aging population

With the number of people belonging to older age groups visibly outstripping younger ones, in recent years it has become clear that Germany’s population is aging more rapidly than developing. In fact, figures on age structure in Germany during the decade ending in 2017 depict a constant trend of a slowly increasing population share aged over 65. Meanwhile, the share of population members aged 0 to 14 years has been falling, which was also reflected in the fluctuating national birth rate in recent years.

 

They have a high population if 65+ @17% and then another high demographic of people 25-39 at 15%

3/15/20 10:08 AM
2/4/09
Posts: 10443

Looks like germany got its 10th death this morning. 

 

Even more shocking though out of the 5235 cases only 9 are in serious or critical condition!!!

3/15/20 10:15 AM
2/4/09
Posts: 10444

Now while again this wont mean anything. But I decided to have a look at Germany's chinese population. 

 

There are only 143,000 chinese living in germany or 1.3% of their population. 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany

3/15/20 10:26 AM
11/10/18
Posts: 6535
NoNeed4aScreenName -

^that's a really neat website. I'm not much of an environmental scientist. 

 

Are you speculating that perhaps its bodies being burned? 

 

On another note how does germany have 5100 cases and only 9 deaths. 

 

That's roughly a .1% mortality rate

Lots of old Germans died before they had kids due to world war 2. Totally different age demographics than Italy. 

3/15/20 10:33 AM
2/4/09
Posts: 10445
Eskimo -
NoNeed4aScreenName -

^that's a really neat website. I'm not much of an environmental scientist. 

 

Are you speculating that perhaps its bodies being burned? 

 

On another note how does germany have 5100 cases and only 9 deaths. 

 

That's roughly a .1% mortality rate

Lots of old Germans died before they had kids due to world war 2. Totally different age demographics than Italy. 

It's just weird that germany has such a low serious or critical count as well as deaths. 

 

As of now they are an anomaly. 

 

I'm wondering if this could also be due to the lack of global standardized testing. Each country establishes their own testing guidelines, I'm assuming of course

Edited: 3/15/20 10:35 AM
2/4/09
Posts: 10446

They are lower than south Korean. 

 

I wonder of this is the type of data that results from mass testing. 

 

Yesterday I found the total amounts of tests administered in italy. South korea has done mass testing and their numbers are low. 

 

I am going to look for tests administered in germany to see if that has any additional details. 

3/15/20 2:27 PM
5/14/13
Posts: 5796

 

3/15/20 2:52 PM
2/27/11
Posts: 11195

Germany has low number of deaths because they dont add people with preexisting conditions to the coronavirus tally.

If Italy would do the same they'd get similar results as far as infected/dead ratio

In Italy they count EVERY dead as coronavirus even if they were on the brink of dead before catching the virus.

It is the only thing that makes sense.

Italy just yesterday had 368 deaths, most of them in Lombardy.

Im going to translate some stats later on, at this point they have some significance (im Italian and living in Lombardy).

It'd be great to know how many people that died in Germany that were badly sick with coronavirus symptoms have been actually tested and the results, but i bet there isnt such data.

 

 

 

Edited: 3/15/20 5:04 PM
2/4/09
Posts: 10456
pidgey -

Germany has low number of deaths because they dont add people with preexisting conditions to the coronavirus tally.

If Italy would do the same they'd get similar results as far as infected/dead ratio

In Italy they count EVERY dead as coronavirus even if they were on the brink of dead before catching the virus.

It is the only thing that makes sense.

Italy just yesterday had 368 deaths, most of them in Lombardy.

Im going to translate some stats later on, at this point they have some significance (im Italian and living in Lombardy).

It'd be great to know how many people that died in Germany that were badly sick with coronavirus symptoms have been actually tested and the results, but i bet there isnt such data.

 

 

 

 

I'm trying to fiddle with some reports myself to see if I can get a listing of pneumonia cases and influenza myself to look at some stats and data but seems like I can't tweak it enough to create an easy dataset. 

3/15/20 4:38 PM
8/2/19
Posts: 1081
pidgey -

Germany has low number of deaths because they dont add people with preexisting conditions to the coronavirus tally.

If Italy would do the same they'd get similar results as far as infected/dead ratio

In Italy they count EVERY dead as coronavirus even if they were on the brink of dead before catching the virus.

It is the only thing that makes sense.

Italy just yesterday had 368 deaths, most of them in Lombardy.

Im going to translate some stats later on, at this point they have some significance (im Italian and living in Lombardy).

It'd be great to know how many people that died in Germany that were badly sick with coronavirus symptoms have been actually tested and the results, but i bet there isnt such data.

 

 

 

You state these things as if they're fact then add, "it's the only thing that makes sense".

 

So is it a fact or is it pure speculation on your part?

3/15/20 5:02 PM
1/19/12
Posts: 31698
jspeed -
pidgey -

Germany has low number of deaths because they dont add people with preexisting conditions to the coronavirus tally.

If Italy would do the same they'd get similar results as far as infected/dead ratio

In Italy they count EVERY dead as coronavirus even if they were on the brink of dead before catching the virus.

It is the only thing that makes sense.

Italy just yesterday had 368 deaths, most of them in Lombardy.

Im going to translate some stats later on, at this point they have some significance (im Italian and living in Lombardy).

It'd be great to know how many people that died in Germany that were badly sick with coronavirus symptoms have been actually tested and the results, but i bet there isnt such data.

 

 

 

You state these things as if they're fact then add, "it's the only thing that makes sense".

 

So is it a fact or is it pure speculation on your part?

I think we all know the answer to that question.

3/15/20 5:41 PM
11/23/10
Posts: 78
jspeed -
pidgey -

Germany has low number of deaths because they dont add people with preexisting conditions to the coronavirus tally.

If Italy would do the same they'd get similar results as far as infected/dead ratio

In Italy they count EVERY dead as coronavirus even if they were on the brink of dead before catching the virus.

It is the only thing that makes sense.

Italy just yesterday had 368 deaths, most of them in Lombardy.

Im going to translate some stats later on, at this point they have some significance (im Italian and living in Lombardy).

It'd be great to know how many people that died in Germany that were badly sick with coronavirus symptoms have been actually tested and the results, but i bet there isnt such data.

 

 

 

You state these things as if they're fact then add, "it's the only thing that makes sense".

 

So is it a fact or is it pure speculation on your part?

I’m an epidemiologist and MD, so I’ll chime in on this one:

 

One way risks a slight overestimation, the other risk a severe underestimation. No way is perfect, but it is far more desirable from an epidemiologic standpoint to overestimate and have a sense of the size of that bias than to underestimate and have little-to-no sense of the size of that bias.

A different example could be risk of death from heart attack. If you only evaluate the risk in those without comorbidity (e.g. diabetes, heart failure, COPD), you’re going to underestimate the risk compared to in the real population. And you can’t really say much about what that real risk would be.

However, if you evaluate the risk regardless of comorbidity, you get a better overall estimate, and you can do subanalyse of risk in different groups, including those without comorbidities, to assess their risk compared to the overall estimate.

3/15/20 6:04 PM
11/23/10
Posts: 79

I’m in Denmark, and here we have low death numbers (numbers were approx. 0 deaths, 4 ICU, 15 hospitalized out of approx. 700 cases before we stopped testing all cases and went to mitigation strategy only testing those with severe symptoms). This is because the majority of those infected were infected in afterski bars during skiing holidays in the austrian/italian alps. That is a very fit subgroup of the general population, and as long as the contagion stays in this demographic, the death/ICU numbers will be low. By comparison, a few days later, 3 out of 8 cases in the 80+ age group had died.

I don’t know the predominant ways of covid-19 spread in Germany, but I suspect similar selection mechanisms could be at play in the initial numbers? Until it disseminates to the vulnerable age/comorbidity-groups, you won’t get “realistic” numbers.

3/15/20 6:06 PM
2/27/11
Posts: 11197
jspeed -
pidgey -

Germany has low number of deaths because they dont add people with preexisting conditions to the coronavirus tally.

If Italy would do the same they'd get similar results as far as infected/dead ratio

In Italy they count EVERY dead as coronavirus even if they were on the brink of dead before catching the virus.

It is the only thing that makes sense.

Italy just yesterday had 368 deaths, most of them in Lombardy.

Im going to translate some stats later on, at this point they have some significance (im Italian and living in Lombardy).

It'd be great to know how many people that died in Germany that were badly sick with coronavirus symptoms have been actually tested and the results, but i bet there isnt such data.

 

 

 

You state these things as if they're fact then add, "it's the only thing that makes sense".

 

So is it a fact or is it pure speculation on your part?

Both. One fact for sure is how Italy is calculating the stats, and they test all the sick people with symptoms, for sure all of those in the hospitals.

One doctor said: "you can die FROM covid-19 or WITH covid-19, but both cases end up in the same statistic, while other countries follow different rules".

I refuse to believe Germany with 5500 infected has 10 dead with and from covid-19.

For sure people died and werent tested for the virus, for whatever reason they think necessary.

3/15/20 6:09 PM
2/27/11
Posts: 11198
Job Security -

I’m in Denmark, and here we have low death numbers (numbers were approx. 0 deaths, 4 ICU, 15 hospitalized out of approx. 700 cases before we stopped testing all cases and went to mitigation strategy only testing those with severe symptoms). This is because the majority of those infected were infected in afterski bars during skiing holidays in the austrian/italian alps. That is a very fit subgroup of the general population, and as long as the contagion stays in this demographic, the death/ICU numbers will be low. By comparison, a few days later, 3 out of 8 cases in the 80+ age group had died.

I don’t know the predominant ways of covid-19 spread in Germany, but I suspect similar selection mechanisms could be at play in the initial numbers? Until it disseminates to the vulnerable age/comorbidity-groups, you won’t get “realistic” numbers.

That makes a lot of sense.

Literally no young people died in Italy.

The youngest were two 39yo, one with cancer and the other diabetes+obesity and something else i forgot.

 

3/15/20 6:11 PM
2/4/09
Posts: 10466
Job Security -

I’m in Denmark, and here we have low death numbers (numbers were approx. 0 deaths, 4 ICU, 15 hospitalized out of approx. 700 cases before we stopped testing all cases and went to mitigation strategy only testing those with severe symptoms). This is because the majority of those infected were infected in afterski bars during skiing holidays in the austrian/italian alps. That is a very fit subgroup of the general population, and as long as the contagion stays in this demographic, the death/ICU numbers will be low. By comparison, a few days later, 3 out of 8 cases in the 80+ age group had died.

I don’t know the predominant ways of covid-19 spread in Germany, but I suspect similar selection mechanisms could be at play in the initial numbers? Until it disseminates to the vulnerable age/comorbidity-groups, you won’t get “realistic” numbers.

Maybe those germans just have some of that super athlete Sherpa gene and being short of breath is nothing for them! 

 

Obsviously joking, but I wonder if over time they maintained some type of recessive marker or gene that allows for better resistance

3/15/20 6:55 PM
10/14/12
Posts: 920
https://www.lakemchenryscanner.com/2020/03/15/illinois-governor-orders-all-restaurants-bars-to-close-to-dine-in-customers-as-coronavirus-cases-rise-to-93/?fbclid=IwAR3MXMafrcDORl2ey6unQDdl-9mSnT9zZugPS4FdRlkQIwj0z0Du4gqabjY

https://www.10tv.com/article/gov-dewine-announces-closure-ohio-bars-dine-restaurants-2020-mar?fbclid=IwAR3KYRuuJluohS4aWkVXszsqQvurbPyNao_TbjlCKRX1X8GDR5qQATqz2oo
3/15/20 7:41 PM
11/20/09
Posts: 42885

Image may contain: possible text that says 'Can supermarkets PLEASE open for the elderly ONLY in mornings for 2 hours to do their shopping. PROTECT them from this madness SHARE'

3/15/20 9:47 PM
3/12/02
Posts: 7058
Eskimo -
NoNeed4aScreenName -

^that's a really neat website. I'm not much of an environmental scientist. 

 

Are you speculating that perhaps its bodies being burned? 

 

On another note how does germany have 5100 cases and only 9 deaths. 

 

That's roughly a .1% mortality rate

Lots of old Germans died before they had kids due to world war 2. Totally different age demographics than Italy. 

Absolute nonsense. Why would a war that ended 75 years ago have any effect on current German demographics? Germany and Italy have almost identical demographics, including the key metric for this virus that both have 22% of the population over 65 years old.

https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare/germany.italy/demographics

3/15/20 11:23 PM
8/2/19
Posts: 1086
pidgey -
jspeed -
pidgey -

Germany has low number of deaths because they dont add people with preexisting conditions to the coronavirus tally.

If Italy would do the same they'd get similar results as far as infected/dead ratio

In Italy they count EVERY dead as coronavirus even if they were on the brink of dead before catching the virus.

It is the only thing that makes sense.

Italy just yesterday had 368 deaths, most of them in Lombardy.

Im going to translate some stats later on, at this point they have some significance (im Italian and living in Lombardy).

It'd be great to know how many people that died in Germany that were badly sick with coronavirus symptoms have been actually tested and the results, but i bet there isnt such data.

 

 

 

You state these things as if they're fact then add, "it's the only thing that makes sense".

 

So is it a fact or is it pure speculation on your part?

Both. One fact for sure is how Italy is calculating the stats, and they test all the sick people with symptoms, for sure all of those in the hospitals.

One doctor said: "you can die FROM covid-19 or WITH covid-19, but both cases end up in the same statistic, while other countries follow different rules".

I refuse to believe Germany with 5500 infected has 10 dead with and from covid-19.

For sure people died and werent tested for the virus, for whatever reason they think necessary.

Source for the comment from the doctor?

3/15/20 11:25 PM
5/22/05
Posts: 25166
Koga - 
Eskimo -
NoNeed4aScreenName -

^that's a really neat website. I'm not much of an environmental scientist. 

 

Are you speculating that perhaps its bodies being burned? 

 

On another note how does germany have 5100 cases and only 9 deaths. 

 

That's roughly a .1% mortality rate

Lots of old Germans died before they had kids due to world war 2. Totally different age demographics than Italy. 

Absolute nonsense. Why would a war that ended 75 years ago have any effect on current German demographics? Germany and Italy have almost identical demographics, including the key metric for this virus that both have 22% of the population over 65 years old.

https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare/germany.italy/demographics


Russia's demographics are still screwed up because of WW II.

3/16/20 12:18 AM
4/19/09
Posts: 33014

Police drones in flight over spain to enforce the curfew...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51901976

 

The three states bearing the brunt of the coronavirus pandemic in Europe have all recorded their highest death tolls for a single day.

Italy saw 368 deaths bring its total to 1,809, Spain recorded 97 more deaths for a total of 288, and France reported 29 deaths, giving a total of 120.

The UK also saw a single-day record, with 14 new deaths and a total of 35.

Governments across Europe have responded by curbing the movements of citizens and tightening borders.

Germany is to impose controls on its borders with France, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark and Luxembourg as of Monday morning, while Portugal will clamp down on its frontier with Spain.

The Czech government has introduced stringent lockdown measures: people will be allowed to go to and from work and buy food or medicine, and make urgent family visits, but otherwise free movement will be severely limited from midnight (23:00 GMT) on Sunday until 24 March.

Austria is banning gatherings of more than five people from Monday, and the Republic of Ireland is asking pubs to shut until 29 March.

Schools will be closed across many European states.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has now declared Europe the "epicentre" of the pandemic which originated in China.

How far has the virus spread?

In an indication of the extent of the crisis, Switzerland reported a leap in the number of infections by 800 to reach 2,200 in just 24 hours. The country has recorded 14 deaths.

Italy has borne the heaviest burden from the pandemic with 24,747 infections and 1,218 of its fatalities were recorded in one region, Lombardy, which is home to the business hub of Milan.

The government put the whole country in lockdown last Monday, restricting people's movements and ordering the closure of all shops except food stores and pharmacies. Schools, gyms, museums, nightclubs and other venues had been closed earlier.

On Saturday, Spain, which now has 7,753 infections, and France, which has 5,400, took drastic temporary measures of their own.

The Spanish government banned people from leaving home except for buying essential supplies and medicines, or for work.

In France, cafes, restaurants, cinemas and most shops are now shut.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called on member states to fight the pandemic with a rapidly co-ordinated response and pooled resources.

She said the bloc would boost production of equipment such as ventilators, test kits and masks, which would then be shared across the EU instead of each country making its own supply.

The export of these products to non-EU countries would be strictly controlled.

How are other parts of the world responding to the crisis?

To date, an estimated 162,687 people have been infected worldwide, with just under half of them in China (81,003 cases). An estimated 6,065 people have died, 3,085 of them in China.

South Africa is closing its borders from Wednesday to foreign nationals from countries badly impacted by coronavirus.

With 61 infections, President Cyril Ramaphosa said the country was now dealing with the internal transmission of the virus and declared a "national state of disaster".

3/16/20 1:09 AM
11/23/10
Posts: 81
NoNeed4aScreenName -
Job Security -

I’m in Denmark, and here we have low death numbers (numbers were approx. 0 deaths, 4 ICU, 15 hospitalized out of approx. 700 cases before we stopped testing all cases and went to mitigation strategy only testing those with severe symptoms). This is because the majority of those infected were infected in afterski bars during skiing holidays in the austrian/italian alps. That is a very fit subgroup of the general population, and as long as the contagion stays in this demographic, the death/ICU numbers will be low. By comparison, a few days later, 3 out of 8 cases in the 80+ age group had died.

I don’t know the predominant ways of covid-19 spread in Germany, but I suspect similar selection mechanisms could be at play in the initial numbers? Until it disseminates to the vulnerable age/comorbidity-groups, you won’t get “realistic” numbers.

Maybe those germans just have some of that super athlete Sherpa gene and being short of breath is nothing for them! 

 

Obsviously joking, but I wonder if over time they maintained some type of recessive marker or gene that allows for better resistance

With no evolutionary pressure / natural selection to promote it, nah. Must be sample bias.

3/16/20 1:34 AM
4/27/14
Posts: 23411

3/16/20 1:48 AM
4/20/08
Posts: 23011
Koga -
Eskimo -
NoNeed4aScreenName -

^that's a really neat website. I'm not much of an environmental scientist. 

 

Are you speculating that perhaps its bodies being burned? 

 

On another note how does germany have 5100 cases and only 9 deaths. 

 

That's roughly a .1% mortality rate

Lots of old Germans died before they had kids due to world war 2. Totally different age demographics than Italy. 

Absolute nonsense. Why would a war that ended 75 years ago have any effect on current German demographics? Germany and Italy have almost identical demographics, including the key metric for this virus that both have 22% of the population over 65 years old.

https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare/germany.italy/demographics

Hitler bred them Germans to be tough, no pussy virus is gonna affect them.