OtherGround Forums Wuhan Coronavirus daily update counts: 10,192,727

3/24/20 8:49 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 19814

Coronavirus Cases:
421,413
view by country
Deaths:
18,810
Recovered:
108,388
ACTIVE CASES
294,215
Currently Infected Patients
280,946 (95%)
in Mild Condition

13,269 (5%)
Serious or Critical

3/25/20 6:17 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 94477

This has been a very useful thread OP. It's weird to look at the first post... Then jump to the last.

 

Please keep doing your thing here

3/25/20 10:20 AM
3/18/14
Posts: 2341


3/25/20 10:44 AM
8/2/19
Posts: 1224

 

Cases have doubled in 3 days.  They can't just sit back and keep saying "We're good, don't worry."

3/25/20 1:26 PM
4/27/14
Posts: 23570

I would be interested in learning this stat as well: https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/03/what-about-the-coronavirus-excess-death-rate/

3/25/20 1:31 PM
12/1/05
Posts: 15776
jspeed - 

 

Cases have doubled in 3 days.  They can't just sit back and keep saying "We're good, don't worry."


Cases haven't doubled imo. The test results from the big push of testing are finally coming in.

 

My city hospital finally put one on the board on the state dept of health website, and I'm positive they had one in there last Saturday.

3/25/20 7:05 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 19818

Coronavirus Cases:
467,592
view by country
Deaths:
21,176
Recovered:
113,808
ACTIVE CASES
332,608
Currently Infected Patients
317,699 (96%)
in Mild Condition

14,909 (4%)
Serious or Critical

3/25/20 7:28 PM
9/8/02
Posts: 24909
Thailand is on the brink, with 4 deaths.
3/26/20 1:09 AM
3/12/02
Posts: 7078

Jcbass, please stop posting. 10,000 new cases in NY since you wrote this yesterday:

 

Total deaths is now at 500 or so and the virus first arrived two months ago. We are currently mostly under forced quarantine. In a week or two NYC will be stable, just like Washington State stabilized

3/26/20 1:18 AM
11/20/09
Posts: 43126

3/26/20 8:03 AM
6/1/07
Posts: 22382
Why the World's Doing a Double-Take on China's No-New-Infection Claim

China’s announcement this month of nearly a week of no new infections in Wuhan, the hard-hit city where the coronavirus pandemic originated, was both hope-inspiring -- and hard to believe.

Medical professionals said the draconian set of policies imposed by the Chinese government – including widespread testing, isolation of all infected people and anyone they came in contact with – are proven methods for limiting contagion. Other countries, South Korea and Taiwan, for example, have followed similar courses, and they have also reported steep declines in new infections, though neither says it has achieved no new local infections, as China claims.

“What we don't know is the degree to which they're being transparent and the degree to which they're following up on existing infections,” Don Goldmann, a professor of immunology, infectious diseases, and epidemiology at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, said in a phone interview.

Dr. Goldmann said Chinese scientists have been extremely transparent about what they've discovered about the coronavirus so far; they have shared information on the genetics and sequencing of the virus and details of autopsies, clinical care and outcomes, he said, plus fatality rates among different age groups.

“So I'm not sure why they would make this up,” he said, “especially since risking another wave of this would not be in their interests or in the interests of their leadership.”

Still, skepticism about China's no-new-local-infections claim is widespread, including, at least according to the anecdotal evidence, inside China. The doubt is fueled both by China's Communist Party's long history of propaganda and by the obvious benefits of changing the focus from the government’s initial efforts to suppress information about the coronavirus to its supposedly glorious victory over the disease crippling much of the world.

“A propaganda spokesman's job is the turn messy facts into a clean narrative,” Andrew J. Nathan, professor of political science at Columbia University and a leading China expert, said in an email. “China is trying to bury the embarrassment of the Covid-19 cover-up in a happy story of triumph over the virus.

“But it feels like overreaching to say that transmission has completely stopped,” Nathan continued. “It seems that the message is political, not epidemiological.”

--------- more at link ---------

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2020/03/25/doing_a_double-take_on_chinas_no-new-infection_claim_122944.html
Edited: 3/26/20 8:37 AM
12/31/17
Posts: 217
Steve4192 - Why the World's Doing a Double-Take on China's No-New-Infection Claim

China’s announcement this month of nearly a week of no new infections in Wuhan, the hard-hit city where the coronavirus pandemic originated, was both hope-inspiring -- and hard to believe.

Medical professionals said the draconian set of policies imposed by the Chinese government – including widespread testing, isolation of all infected people and anyone they came in contact with – are proven methods for limiting contagion. Other countries, South Korea and Taiwan, for example, have followed similar courses, and they have also reported steep declines in new infections, though neither says it has achieved no new local infections, as China claims.

“What we don't know is the degree to which they're being transparent and the degree to which they're following up on existing infections,” Don Goldmann, a professor of immunology, infectious diseases, and epidemiology at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, said in a phone interview.

Dr. Goldmann said Chinese scientists have been extremely transparent about what they've discovered about the coronavirus so far; they have shared information on the genetics and sequencing of the virus and details of autopsies, clinical care and outcomes, he said, plus fatality rates among different age groups.

“So I'm not sure why they would make this up,” he said, “especially since risking another wave of this would not be in their interests or in the interests of their leadership.”

Still, skepticism about China's no-new-local-infections claim is widespread, including, at least according to the anecdotal evidence, inside China. The doubt is fueled both by China's Communist Party's long history of propaganda and by the obvious benefits of changing the focus from the government’s initial efforts to suppress information about the coronavirus to its supposedly glorious victory over the disease crippling much of the world.

“A propaganda spokesman's job is the turn messy facts into a clean narrative,” Andrew J. Nathan, professor of political science at Columbia University and a leading China expert, said in an email. “China is trying to bury the embarrassment of the Covid-19 cover-up in a happy story of triumph over the virus.

“But it feels like overreaching to say that transmission has completely stopped,” Nathan continued. “It seems that the message is political, not epidemiological.”

--------- more at link ---------

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2020/03/25/doing_a_double-take_on_chinas_no-new-infection_claim_122944.html

These guys do all this "reporting" but dont spend 5 minutes investigating. You can learn more from the "china is lying" thread on this forum thsn you can on every other media source combined. What a weird world.

3/26/20 8:40 AM
11/21/15
Posts: 4126

Any guess on how long until we hit 1 million?

 

3/26/20 9:09 AM
1/18/03
Posts: 3450
With more people coming down with this in China after their lockdown it shows (at least to me) that the lockdown is going to have to be extended to the point where world economies are completely fucked unless a vaccine is found.
3/26/20 9:30 AM
6/1/07
Posts: 22386
JLK - With more people coming down with this in China after their lockdown it shows (at least to me) that the lockdown is going to have to be extended to the point where world economies are completely fucked unless a vaccine is found.

Or until we come to our senses and realize there is no containing this virus and we just have to accept it as part of the natural death rate, as we do with other seasonal contagions. It's fast reaching the point where it is like trying to stop the sun from setting, or the tide from rising. There comes a time where you eventually have to accept that you can't stop it, and do what you can to protect the most at-risk populations while letting the bug run it's course.
3/26/20 9:58 AM
7/4/11
Posts: 13669
Steve4192 -
JLK - With more people coming down with this in China after their lockdown it shows (at least to me) that the lockdown is going to have to be extended to the point where world economies are completely fucked unless a vaccine is found.

Or until we come to our senses and realize there is no containing this virus and we just have to accept it as part of the natural death rate, as we do with other seasonal contagions. It's fast reaching the point where it is like trying to stop the sun from setting, or the tide from rising. There comes a time where you eventually have to accept that you can't stop it, and do what you can to protect the most at-risk populations while letting the bug run it's course.

Epidemiologists and virtually all disease modeling efforts to date have disagreed with this all or nothing bullshit narrative that the OG loves to spout.

Even if we did need everyone to be infected at some point to slowly build up herd immunity, which would already be harder with a virus capable of reinfection, it would still be idiotic to say fuck it and let it swarm our hospitals en masse instead of spreading out infections at a slower rate.

 

More spread out = better healthcare provision = more time to develop treatment protocols = more time to develop novel prophylactics, treatments, and cures

 

3/26/20 11:00 AM
6/1/07
Posts: 22388
MattyECB - 
Steve4192 -
JLK - With more people coming down with this in China after their lockdown it shows (at least to me) that the lockdown is going to have to be extended to the point where world economies are completely fucked unless a vaccine is found.

Or until we come to our senses and realize there is no containing this virus and we just have to accept it as part of the natural death rate, as we do with other seasonal contagions. It's fast reaching the point where it is like trying to stop the sun from setting, or the tide from rising. There comes a time where you eventually have to accept that you can't stop it, and do what you can to protect the most at-risk populations while letting the bug run it's course.

Epidemiologists and virtually all disease modeling efforts to date have disagreed with this all or nothing bullshit narrative that the OG loves to spout.

Even if we did need everyone to be infected at some point to slowly build up herd immunity, which would already be harder with a virus capable of reinfection, it would still be idiotic to say fuck it and let it swarm our hospitals en masse instead of spreading out infections at a slower rate.

 

More spread out = better healthcare provision = more time to develop treatment protocols = more time to develop novel prophylactics, treatments, and cures

 


Sure, but at what cost?

There comes a point where the deaths and despair from the economy imploding, unemployment, and people being broke is greater than the death and despair from a virus knocking off the the aged and infirmed a little bit sooner than they would have died anyway. There comes a point where we have to stop sacrificing the well being of the entire nation for the well-being of the oldest and sickest members of that nation.
3/26/20 12:08 PM
11/10/18
Posts: 6717
MattyECB -
Steve4192 -
JLK - With more people coming down with this in China after their lockdown it shows (at least to me) that the lockdown is going to have to be extended to the point where world economies are completely fucked unless a vaccine is found.

Or until we come to our senses and realize there is no containing this virus and we just have to accept it as part of the natural death rate, as we do with other seasonal contagions. It's fast reaching the point where it is like trying to stop the sun from setting, or the tide from rising. There comes a time where you eventually have to accept that you can't stop it, and do what you can to protect the most at-risk populations while letting the bug run it's course.

Epidemiologists and virtually all disease modeling efforts to date have disagreed with this all or nothing bullshit narrative that the OG loves to spout.

Even if we did need everyone to be infected at some point to slowly build up herd immunity, which would already be harder with a virus capable of reinfection, it would still be idiotic to say fuck it and let it swarm our hospitals en masse instead of spreading out infections at a slower rate.

 

More spread out = better healthcare provision = more time to develop treatment protocols = more time to develop novel prophylactics, treatments, and cures

 

And letting doctors set policy for this will be the downfall of the world. You’re talking about a group of people who by and large can’t even balance their personal finances and are in the top 1% of income earners. They have tunnel vision and offer zero balance. That’s great for treating patients and that’s what they should be doing. They’re great at their jobs. But they’re specialists with zero understanding of the economic impact of this and the death toll that will produce. I’ll be happy to eat crow if I’m wrong, but as this currently sits it’s looking like an exercise in self destruction. But I suppose that’s a matter of opinion.
 

Personally, I view our efforts to shutdown the world as fool’s errand unless the death toll for the US is expected to exceed 1% of our population with a significant percentage of those dead under retirement age. We all know that’s not the case so I’m left wondering why we’re busy creating generational poverty. 

I’m curious what others here view as catastrophic death numbers for the US? What age groups have to be affected? Is shutting down and destroying the economy worth saving 5-10% of people over 70? Do people not realize a severe recession or depression will kill more than that?

3/26/20 1:13 PM
1/13/14
Posts: 739
Eskimo -
MattyECB -
Steve4192 -
JLK - With more people coming down with this in China after their lockdown it shows (at least to me) that the lockdown is going to have to be extended to the point where world economies are completely fucked unless a vaccine is found.

Or until we come to our senses and realize there is no containing this virus and we just have to accept it as part of the natural death rate, as we do with other seasonal contagions. It's fast reaching the point where it is like trying to stop the sun from setting, or the tide from rising. There comes a time where you eventually have to accept that you can't stop it, and do what you can to protect the most at-risk populations while letting the bug run it's course.

Epidemiologists and virtually all disease modeling efforts to date have disagreed with this all or nothing bullshit narrative that the OG loves to spout.

Even if we did need everyone to be infected at some point to slowly build up herd immunity, which would already be harder with a virus capable of reinfection, it would still be idiotic to say fuck it and let it swarm our hospitals en masse instead of spreading out infections at a slower rate.

 

More spread out = better healthcare provision = more time to develop treatment protocols = more time to develop novel prophylactics, treatments, and cures

 

And letting doctors set policy for this will be the downfall of the world. You’re talking about a group of people who by and large can’t even balance their personal finances and are in the top 1% of income earners. They have tunnel vision and offer zero balance. That’s great for treating patients and that’s what they should be doing. They’re great at their jobs. But they’re specialists with zero understanding of the economic impact of this and the death toll that will produce. I’ll be happy to eat crow if I’m wrong, but as this currently sits it’s looking like an exercise in self destruction. But I suppose that’s a matter of opinion.
 

Personally, I view our efforts to shutdown the world as fool’s errand unless the death toll for the US is expected to exceed 1% of our population with a significant percentage of those dead under retirement age. We all know that’s not the case so I’m left wondering why we’re busy creating generational poverty. 

I’m curious what others here view as catastrophic death numbers for the US? What age groups have to be affected? Is shutting down and destroying the economy worth saving 5-10% of people over 70? Do people not realize a severe recession or depression will kill more than that?

I agree, let's get back to work. Everybody has to die sometime. If its ne then it's me. I'd rather die free than couped up in my house in fear. Fuck that. 

3/26/20 1:18 PM
9/8/02
Posts: 24922
Koga - 

Jcbass, please stop posting. 10,000 new cases in NY since you wrote this yesterday:

 

Total deaths is now at 500 or so and the virus first arrived two months ago. We are currently mostly under forced quarantine. In a week or two NYC will be stable, just like Washington State stabilized


No I have maintained that Coronavirus is a regional threat and NYC is tailor made to spread the virus. I think the United States should move heaven and earth to help NYC. However, we should not take NYC's numbers and then project them onto the entire country to get to some insanely high death rate...That's what people are doing...

From another post, that was well received by the medical people..

-----

I have been down the middle with my thoughts on this. I understand the virus is very contagious which is dangerous especially to those vulnerable to the virus, (old and sick). However, I keep seeing people looking at the NYC numbers and then projecting those kind of percentages onto the rest of the country to get to their dooms day number. I am saying each location is different and the simple fact that NYC is under fire (at the moment) doesn't mean the entire country is going to be enveloped.

The circumstances are not the same everywhere. China has a population of 1.3 billion, it killed under 4k (even if you times tht x 10 because they 'lie' then its 40k).

Thailand has experienced 4 deaths...

Other countries under 40....it's not something that catches fire and totally annihilates a country, its regional and we know where it settles, densely populated places, particularly with an older/unhealthy demographic.

Let's keep most the travel restrictions in place for the time being, keep the ban on large events, keep the border closed, isolate the old and the sick, not punish anyone if they don't feel comfortable going to work, but slowly start opening up commerce while making sure everyone is practicing safe practices. Maybe that means restaurants only seat every other table, parties under 4...for a month or so.

However, at this rate the economic fallout is going to be dire. Despite only have 11 deaths, the entire city of Los Angeles is entirely shut down. The Magic Castle, a staple of Hollywood, just laid-off 189 of 199 employees, they are on the brink of failure. This can't continue.
3/26/20 7:22 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 19823
jimmy23 -

This has been a very useful thread OP. It's weird to look at the first post... Then jump to the last.

 

Please keep doing your thing here

That is exactly why I made it.  It is really interesting to see it develop.  
 

Coronavirus Cases:

529,277 

view by country

Deaths:

23,969

Recovered:

123,380

ACTIVE CASES

381,928

Currently Infected Patients

362,422 (95%)

in Mild Condition


19,506 (5%)

Serious or Critical

 

3/26/20 7:57 PM
3/18/14
Posts: 2356


3/26/20 8:44 PM
5/14/10
Posts: 7632
MattyECB - 
Steve4192 -
JLK - With more people coming down with this in China after their lockdown it shows (at least to me) that the lockdown is going to have to be extended to the point where world economies are completely fucked unless a vaccine is found.

Or until we come to our senses and realize there is no containing this virus and we just have to accept it as part of the natural death rate, as we do with other seasonal contagions. It's fast reaching the point where it is like trying to stop the sun from setting, or the tide from rising. There comes a time where you eventually have to accept that you can't stop it, and do what you can to protect the most at-risk populations while letting the bug run it's course.

Epidemiologists and virtually all disease modeling efforts to date have disagreed with this all or nothing bullshit narrative that the OG loves to spout.

Even if we did need everyone to be infected at some point to slowly build up herd immunity, which would already be harder with a virus capable of reinfection, it would still be idiotic to say fuck it and let it swarm our hospitals en masse instead of spreading out infections at a slower rate.

 

More spread out = better healthcare provision = more time to develop treatment protocols = more time to develop novel prophylactics, treatments, and cures

 


| Epidemiologists and virtually all disease modeling efforts to date have disagreed with this all or nothing bullshit narrative that the OG loves to spout.

The same Epidemiologists that are now saying that the original curve graph was overblown by comical proportions? Who's spewing the bullshit now?
3/26/20 11:11 PM
8/2/19
Posts: 1234
Freaky_Hibiki -
MattyECB - 
Steve4192 -
JLK - With more people coming down with this in China after their lockdown it shows (at least to me) that the lockdown is going to have to be extended to the point where world economies are completely fucked unless a vaccine is found.

Or until we come to our senses and realize there is no containing this virus and we just have to accept it as part of the natural death rate, as we do with other seasonal contagions. It's fast reaching the point where it is like trying to stop the sun from setting, or the tide from rising. There comes a time where you eventually have to accept that you can't stop it, and do what you can to protect the most at-risk populations while letting the bug run it's course.

Epidemiologists and virtually all disease modeling efforts to date have disagreed with this all or nothing bullshit narrative that the OG loves to spout.

Even if we did need everyone to be infected at some point to slowly build up herd immunity, which would already be harder with a virus capable of reinfection, it would still be idiotic to say fuck it and let it swarm our hospitals en masse instead of spreading out infections at a slower rate.

 

More spread out = better healthcare provision = more time to develop treatment protocols = more time to develop novel prophylactics, treatments, and cures

 


| Epidemiologists and virtually all disease modeling efforts to date have disagreed with this all or nothing bullshit narrative that the OG loves to spout.

The same Epidemiologists that are now saying that the original curve graph was overblown by comical proportions? Who's spewing the bullshit now?

Epidemiologists and models have been rather accurate from the start.  If anything we didn't anticipiate how bad it would get in Italy.

 

3/26/20 11:25 PM
5/14/10
Posts: 7636
^ until today when they revealed that from the start they were bullshit.