OtherGround Forums Wuhan Coronavirus daily update counts: 5,054,019

2/16/20 3:35 PM
2/4/09
Posts: 9775
Soup and Beer -
Trust - 

There seems to be mounting evidence that it didn't start in the wet seafood market, and was in fact sourced from the their disease control lab that was just 300 yards away from the market.  


This would still be a better scenerio than the virus getting engineered in the lab.  It sounds like someone at their disease control center might have gotten it from a bat during their experiments.  At least it would naturally occuring if this is the case.

It makes sense they have been studying viruses like this since 2013 at least. 

 

We could probably try and cross reference some of the researchers from this Nature paper to the Wuhan lan 

 

Isolation and characterization of a bat SARS-like coronavirus that uses the ACE2 receptor.

Ge XY1, Li JLYang XLChmura AAZhu GEpstein JHMazet JKHu BZhang WPeng CZhang YJLuo CMTan BWang NZhu YCrameri GZhang SYWang LFDaszak PShi ZL.

 

 

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24172901?dopt=Abstract&holding=npg

2/16/20 6:04 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 19397

Coronavirus Cases:

71,323 

view by country

Deaths:

1,770

Recovered:

10,857

ACTIVE CASES

58,696

Currently Infected Patients

47,398 (81%) 

in Mild Condition


11,298 (19%) 

Serious or Critical

 

2/17/20 4:48 PM
12/31/18
Posts: 574

2/17/20 6:44 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 19407

Coronavirus Cases:

73,259 

view by country

Deaths:

1,868

Recovered:

12,615

ACTIVE CASES

58,776

Currently Infected Patients

47,450 (81%) 

in Mild Condition


11,326 (19%) 

Serious or Critical

2/17/20 10:19 PM
12/31/18
Posts: 586

2/18/20 7:12 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 19410

Big jump today. 
 

Coronavirus Cases:

75,184 

view by country

Deaths:

2,009

Recovered:

14,555

ACTIVE CASES

58,620

Currently Infected Patients

46,563 (79%) 

in Mild Condition


12,057 (21%) 

Serious or Critical

Edited: 2/18/20 8:19 PM
1/23/19
Posts: 352

21%? That’s insane considering 1 in 5 doesn’t make it out of serious conditions. Add the fact that it’s just started. 

2/18/20 9:49 PM
12/9/13
Posts: 27098
chad_mcjangle - that's 2.6% fatality rate...then if you assume an additional 10% of remaining serious cases end in death the fatality rate would be like over 4%. If it's more like 20% then it's close to 6%.

i though, deaths and recovered should be compared, the rest are an questionmark

2/18/20 9:56 PM
8/29/09
Posts: 16626
Eskimo -
Rashomon -
WidespreadPanic - 

A Chinese friend who lives in NJ said he heard from some relatives that the death toll in Wutan is 200k and they can't creamate the bodies fast enough.


Wouldn't burning bodies just put MORE of the virus in the air and cause it to spread more?

(I believe your friend, BTW.)

No, but it puts sulfur dioxide into the air which is a major irritant for lungs. Not a great idea with a huge outbreak that causes acute respiratory distress. 

I can't believe the crematories don't have thermal oxidizers on the exhaust stack. That would reduce the stack emissions to water vapor and CO2. 
 

If it happens here, I could cremate 200-300 per day with my industrial furnaces. That's in midwestern American bodies. Probably double that if we're talking Chinese people 

2/19/20 6:17 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 19422

Big death day

 

Coronavirus Cases:

75,662 

view by country

Deaths:

2,122

Recovered:

16,342

ACTIVE CASES

57,198

Currently Infected Patients

45,134 (79%) 

in Mild Condition


12,064 (21%) 

Serious or Critic

2/19/20 7:04 PM
1/26/13
Posts: 228
Cire -

Big death day

 

Coronavirus Cases:

75,662 

view by country

Deaths:

2,122

Recovered:

16,342

ACTIVE CASES

57,198

Currently Infected Patients

45,134 (79%) 

in Mild Condition


12,064 (21%) 

Serious or Critic

Even bigger recovered day. And the smallest jump in total cases in a while. Hopefully that trend continues.

2/19/20 7:06 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 52731
thefirst15er -
Cire -

Big death day

 

Coronavirus Cases:

75,662 

view by country

Deaths:

2,122

Recovered:

16,342

ACTIVE CASES

57,198

Currently Infected Patients

45,134 (79%) 

in Mild Condition


12,064 (21%) 

Serious or Critic

Even bigger recovered day. And the smallest jump in total cases in a while. Hopefully that trend continues.

Agreed

Edited: 2/19/20 9:38 PM
7/4/11
Posts: 13447
chad_mcjangle -
trobinson21 - 
The Cats Masher -
camicom -

THese numbers seem bad until you compare them to our yearly flu numbers.

900 deaths in over 2 months from Corona virus

5000 deaths per month in the USA from regular flu

Ya you're right, you know how China quarantines an entire province every year because of the common flu. Or how countries put travel bans on each other every year because of the regular flu. Yup nothing to worry about 

Or how none of the 11-12 US cases have died.


I did the math(i believe correctly.) and even at a fatality rate of 6% the chance of 1 person out of 11 dying would only be 50%. (.94^11)

Even a 2% fatality rate would be huge with COVID19's infectivity, so I'm not sure why trob is looking at such a small sample size like it would mean shit. We might be able to fight it better in a developed country, but we haven't (thankfully) had the chance to test it out. Hopefully we never will.

Edited: 2/19/20 9:57 PM
12/31/18
Posts: 621

Why are our OG brothers in China being so secretive?  Ive hardly seen any pics.  

2/19/20 10:41 PM
12/9/13
Posts: 27109
thefirst15er -
Cire -

Big death day

 

Coronavirus Cases:

75,662 

view by country

Deaths:

2,122

Recovered:

16,342

ACTIVE CASES

57,198

Currently Infected Patients

45,134 (79%) 

in Mild Condition


12,064 (21%) 

Serious or Critic

Even bigger recovered day. And the smallest jump in total cases in a while. Hopefully that trend continues.

Nope, China changed the count so it appears low, in reality is still the same trend and outside China the numbers are increasing

2/20/20 3:42 AM
12/31/18
Posts: 627

2/20/20 9:56 AM
1/26/13
Posts: 229
Morpheus1976 -
thefirst15er -
Cire -

Big death day

 

Coronavirus Cases:

75,662 

view by country

Deaths:

2,122

Recovered:

16,342

ACTIVE CASES

57,198

Currently Infected Patients

45,134 (79%) 

in Mild Condition


12,064 (21%) 

Serious or Critic

Even bigger recovered day. And the smallest jump in total cases in a while. Hopefully that trend continues.

Nope, China changed the count so it appears low, in reality is still the same trend and outside China the numbers are increasing

Where are those numbers?  How would you know for certaity that it's on the same trend line? Or are you making an assumption that the sky is falling?  I'm watching this thing closely like everybody else but I don't want to fall into the trap of "Look at how bad the numbers are! Oh, they are looking better?  The numbers are fake!" 

 

 

2/20/20 10:13 AM
2/9/09
Posts: 9842

Has any non Asian died from this ?

2/20/20 10:14 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 48430

One of the big advantages we have in the U.S. is they have been very proactive with the few cases.  We've been locating all the contacts quickly and isolating them for quarantine.

It makes me wonder about the risk of intentional spread.  Seems like the perfect opportunity for a group not friendly to U.S. interests to get a few infected and instruct them to go and spread it as far they can.   Maybe one or two in New York, a couple in Los Angeles, Atlanta, Houson, Chicago...

2/20/20 10:17 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 48431
The Closed Guard - 

Has any non Asian died from this ?


Yes.   Just yesterday Iran announced two cases and both of them died.

2/20/20 12:08 PM
12/9/13
Posts: 27115
thefirst15er -
Morpheus1976 -
thefirst15er -
Cire -

Big death day

 

Coronavirus Cases:

75,662 

view by country

Deaths:

2,122

Recovered:

16,342

ACTIVE CASES

57,198

Currently Infected Patients

45,134 (79%) 

in Mild Condition


12,064 (21%) 

Serious or Critic

Even bigger recovered day. And the smallest jump in total cases in a while. Hopefully that trend continues.

Nope, China changed the count so it appears low, in reality is still the same trend and outside China the numbers are increasing

Where are those numbers?  How would you know for certaity that it's on the same trend line? Or are you making an assumption that the sky is falling?  I'm watching this thing closely like everybody else but I don't want to fall into the trap of "Look at how bad the numbers are! Oh, they are looking better?  The numbers are fake!" 

 

 

my source:

2/20/20 7:10 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 19440

Coronavirus Cases:

76,206 

view by country

Deaths:

2,247

Recovered:

18,223

ACTIVE CASES 

55,736

Currently Infected Patients

43,672 (78%) 

in Mild Condition


12,064 (22%) 

Serious or Critical

 

2/20/20 7:56 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 19447

In 10 days, cases went up 30,675 and deaths went up 1338.  

2/20/20 10:25 PM
11/10/18
Posts: 6234
Cire -

In 10 days, cases went up 30,675 and deaths went up 1338.  

Imagine how high the real numbers are

2/21/20 4:16 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 48453
Bukabuki - 
Soup and Beer -
The Closed Guard - 

Has any non Asian died from this ?


Yes.   Just yesterday Iran announced two cases and both of them died.

Iran is in Asia bro


Well good point.  But there is nothing about asia specifically that relates to the virus other than a place of origin.  There is no proof at all the ACE-2 inhibitors make the virus more deadly to asians vs. other ethnic origins.