OtherGround Forums Wuhan Coronavirus daily update counts:

4 days ago
11/10/18
Posts: 6228
Rashomon -
WidespreadPanic - 

A Chinese friend who lives in NJ said he heard from some relatives that the death toll in Wutan is 200k and they can't creamate the bodies fast enough.


Wouldn't burning bodies just put MORE of the virus in the air and cause it to spread more?

(I believe your friend, BTW.)

No, but it puts sulfur dioxide into the air which is a major irritant for lungs. Not a great idea with a huge outbreak that causes acute respiratory distress. 

4 days ago
8/2/19
Posts: 788
Bukabuki -

A vaccine. How miraculous. Come get your autism. 

LMFAO!  We have our own Facebook mom.

4 days ago
9/19/13
Posts: 7755

Time for forced vaccinations 

4 days ago
5/7/08
Posts: 22821

Wu Han Virus ain't nothin to fuck with

4 days ago
2/4/07
Posts: 31370
Rashomon -
WidespreadPanic - 

A Chinese friend who lives in NJ said he heard from some relatives that the death toll in Wutan is 200k and they can't creamate the bodies fast enough.


Wouldn't burning bodies just put MORE of the virus in the air and cause it to spread more?

(I believe your friend, BTW.)

Someone watched too much Return of the Living Dead

4 days ago
1/1/01
Posts: 19375

...and back up

 

Coronavirus Cases:

66,900 

view by country

Deaths:

1,523

Recovered:

8,074

4 days ago
3/9/13
Posts: 4063
Bukabuki -

A vaccine. How miraculous. Come get your autism. 

Listen to this guy. I got the flu vaccine for the first time this year due to a bad flu last year.

 

Now I'm 100% autistic. Couldn't believe it!

4 days ago
12/9/02
Posts: 13291
MayorPirkle -

Wu Han Virus ain't nothin to fuck with

Haha

 

2 days ago
1/1/01
Posts: 19394

Coronavirus Cases:

69,289 

view by country

Deaths:

1,671

Recovered:

9,883

ACTIVE CASES

57,735

Currently Infected Patients

46,437 (80%) 

in Mild Condition


11,298 (20%) 

Serious or Critical

 

2 days ago
1/1/01
Posts: 98100

There seems to be mounting evidence that it didn't start in the wet seafood market, and was in fact sourced from the their disease control lab that was just 300 yards away from the market.  

2 days ago
1/1/01
Posts: 48333
Trust - 

There seems to be mounting evidence that it didn't start in the wet seafood market, and was in fact sourced from the their disease control lab that was just 300 yards away from the market.  


This would still be a better scenerio than the virus getting engineered in the lab.  It sounds like someone at their disease control center might have gotten it from a bat during their experiments.  At least it would naturally occuring if this is the case.

2 days ago
4/26/18
Posts: 32
Beelze -
trobinson21 -

US influenza:

13,000,000 cases

180,000 hospitalizations 

10,000 deaths 

US influenza:

13,000,000 - 10,000 deaths = 12,990,000 recoveries

Deaths / Recovery ratio = 1 death / 1,299 recoveries

 

Coronavirus:

909 deaths / 3,322 recoveries

Death / Recovery ratio = 1 death / 3.65 recoveries

 

Do you see why this is a bigger deal than the flu?

 

I see your point but this isn’t the way outbreaks are handled. The medics in China don’t have time to call those other people and say ‘hey, how are you feeling? Better now??’ You’re alive until you turn up dead in this situation.

 

When the worst of this is under control you will start to see the ‘difference’ in figures close. The nature of the situation at present, midway during an outbreak doesn’t allow for that at the moment. A realistic death rate for this virus is 1-3%.
 

Until things calm down and hospitals can genuinely say ‘hey, 3 months ago we treated this person and no we havnt seen them since but they havnt turned up dead, so we assume they are alive and let’s update figures accordingly’ there will always be this ‘difference’. 
 

This is fairly standard behavior during an outbreak. Medics in China are working 20+ hours a day and are focusing on sick people, not those who have been treated, sent home and havnt come back either for more treatment or to die.

2 days ago
2/4/09
Posts: 9775
Soup and Beer -
Trust - 

There seems to be mounting evidence that it didn't start in the wet seafood market, and was in fact sourced from the their disease control lab that was just 300 yards away from the market.  


This would still be a better scenerio than the virus getting engineered in the lab.  It sounds like someone at their disease control center might have gotten it from a bat during their experiments.  At least it would naturally occuring if this is the case.

It makes sense they have been studying viruses like this since 2013 at least. 

 

We could probably try and cross reference some of the researchers from this Nature paper to the Wuhan lan 

 

Isolation and characterization of a bat SARS-like coronavirus that uses the ACE2 receptor.

Ge XY1, Li JLYang XLChmura AAZhu GEpstein JHMazet JKHu BZhang WPeng CZhang YJLuo CMTan BWang NZhu YCrameri GZhang SYWang LFDaszak PShi ZL.

 

 

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24172901?dopt=Abstract&holding=npg

2 days ago
1/1/01
Posts: 19397

Coronavirus Cases:

71,323 

view by country

Deaths:

1,770

Recovered:

10,857

ACTIVE CASES

58,696

Currently Infected Patients

47,398 (81%) 

in Mild Condition


11,298 (19%) 

Serious or Critical

 

1 day ago
12/31/18
Posts: 574

1 day ago
1/1/01
Posts: 19407

Coronavirus Cases:

73,259 

view by country

Deaths:

1,868

Recovered:

12,615

ACTIVE CASES

58,776

Currently Infected Patients

47,450 (81%) 

in Mild Condition


11,326 (19%) 

Serious or Critical

1 day ago
12/31/18
Posts: 586

3 hours ago
1/1/01
Posts: 19410

Big jump today. 
 

Coronavirus Cases:

75,184 

view by country

Deaths:

2,009

Recovered:

14,555

ACTIVE CASES

58,620

Currently Infected Patients

46,563 (79%) 

in Mild Condition


12,057 (21%) 

Serious or Critical

Edited: 2 hours ago
1/23/19
Posts: 352

21%? That’s insane considering 1 in 5 doesn’t make it out of serious conditions. Add the fact that it’s just started. 

53 minutes ago
6/15/19
Posts: 816
that's 2.6% fatality rate...then if you assume an additional 10% of remaining serious cases end in death the fatality rate would be like over 4%. If it's more like 20% then it's close to 6%.
50 minutes ago
12/9/13
Posts: 27098
chad_mcjangle - that's 2.6% fatality rate...then if you assume an additional 10% of remaining serious cases end in death the fatality rate would be like over 4%. If it's more like 20% then it's close to 6%.

i though, deaths and recovered should be compared, the rest are an questionmark

48 minutes ago
6/15/19
Posts: 817
it's jUsT l1k3 tHe fLu ThoUgH !!!!
43 minutes ago
8/29/09
Posts: 16626
Eskimo -
Rashomon -
WidespreadPanic - 

A Chinese friend who lives in NJ said he heard from some relatives that the death toll in Wutan is 200k and they can't creamate the bodies fast enough.


Wouldn't burning bodies just put MORE of the virus in the air and cause it to spread more?

(I believe your friend, BTW.)

No, but it puts sulfur dioxide into the air which is a major irritant for lungs. Not a great idea with a huge outbreak that causes acute respiratory distress. 

I can't believe the crematories don't have thermal oxidizers on the exhaust stack. That would reduce the stack emissions to water vapor and CO2. 
 

If it happens here, I could cremate 200-300 per day with my industrial furnaces. That's in midwestern American bodies. Probably double that if we're talking Chinese people 

28 minutes ago
6/15/19
Posts: 818
trobinson21 - 
The Cats Masher -
camicom -

THese numbers seem bad until you compare them to our yearly flu numbers.

900 deaths in over 2 months from Corona virus

5000 deaths per month in the USA from regular flu

Ya you're right, you know how China quarantines an entire province every year because of the common flu. Or how countries put travel bans on each other every year because of the regular flu. Yup nothing to worry about 

Or how none of the 11-12 US cases have died.


I did the math(i believe correctly.) and even at a fatality rate of 6% the chance of 1 person out of 11 dying would only be 50%. (.94^11)