OtherGround Forums Yield curve inverted this morning, hold on!

4 days ago
5/22/05
Posts: 23279
Looks like Trump's reelection is dependent on the Fed.
4 days ago
1/1/01
Posts: 25291
ttt
4 days ago
4/21/09
Posts: 20228

Honestly not as bad a day as I expected.

 

I'm really tempted right now to put my back roll on Cisco calls in the morning. We'll just see how froggy I'm feeling at 8am

3 days ago
4/13/12
Posts: 28057

Really interesting interactive graphic of the yield curve by the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/upshot/inverted-yield-curve-bonds-football-analogy.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

 

3 days ago
1/1/01
Posts: 5377
Zned -

Yield curve inverted this morning, the last time this happened it signalled the great recession.

S&P is breaking through the short term support levels.

Hold on to your hats!

Trump will solve this problem, I've got a lot of faith riding on this one.

3 days ago
10/16/10
Posts: 28224
EFM - 

Really interesting interactive graphic of the yield curve by the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/upshot/inverted-yield-curve-bonds-football-analogy.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

 


This is really cool. It looks like it inverted in 2000 just prior to the tech bubble bursting and then again at the middle peak in 2007 before the GFC. Am I missing any others?
3 days ago
2/4/09
Posts: 5406
Stache -
EFM - 

Really interesting interactive graphic of the yield curve by the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/upshot/inverted-yield-curve-bonds-football-analogy.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

 


This is really cool. It looks like it inverted in 2000 just prior to the tech bubble bursting and then again at the middle peak in 2007 before the GFC. Am I missing any others?

Goes back 45 years as an accurate predictor 

3 days ago
2/4/09
Posts: 5407
NoNeed4aScreenName -
Stache -
EFM - 

Really interesting interactive graphic of the yield curve by the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/upshot/inverted-yield-curve-bonds-football-analogy.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

 


This is really cool. It looks like it inverted in 2000 just prior to the tech bubble bursting and then again at the middle peak in 2007 before the GFC. Am I missing any others?

Goes back 45 years as an accurate predictor 

I would have to think that just prior to the "crash" of 87. 

 

Unfortunate that it cuts off at 90

3 days ago
10/16/10
Posts: 28225
Yeah I kind of expected more but I suppose it is a pretty rare event so it makes sense.
3 days ago
2/4/09
Posts: 5408
Stache - Yeah I kind of expected more but I suppose it is a pretty rare event so it makes sense.

It almost still looks kind of inverted between the 2 and 10 even at the 90's mark

3 days ago
1/1/01
Posts: 8513
NoNeed4aScreenName - 
NoNeed4aScreenName -
Stache -
EFM - 

Really interesting interactive graphic of the yield curve by the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/upshot/inverted-yield-curve-bonds-football-analogy.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

 


This is really cool. It looks like it inverted in 2000 just prior to the tech bubble bursting and then again at the middle peak in 2007 before the GFC. Am I missing any others?

Goes back 45 years as an accurate predictor 

I would have to think that just prior to the "crash" of 87. 

 

Unfortunate that it cuts off at 90


I think I remember reading that it's inverted before every recession since at least 1955, but I don't remember the source.
3 days ago
10/16/10
Posts: 28226
NoNeed4aScreenName - 
Stache - Yeah I kind of expected more but I suppose it is a pretty rare event so it makes sense.

It almost still looks kind of inverted between the 2 and 10 even at the 90's mark


It's pretty close. We did experience a recession around 90-91 as well.
3 days ago
11/9/18
Posts: 2192
Zned -

Yield curve inverted this morning, the last time this happened it signalled the great recession.

S&P is breaking through the short term support levels.

Hold on to your hats!

Wishful thinking on your part.

3 days ago
4/13/12
Posts: 28059
NoNeed4aScreenName -
NoNeed4aScreenName -
Stache -
EFM - 

Really interesting interactive graphic of the yield curve by the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/upshot/inverted-yield-curve-bonds-football-analogy.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

 


This is really cool. It looks like it inverted in 2000 just prior to the tech bubble bursting and then again at the middle peak in 2007 before the GFC. Am I missing any others?

Goes back 45 years as an accurate predictor 

I would have to think that just prior to the "crash" of 87. 

 

Unfortunate that it cuts off at 90

87 want a recession.

3 days ago
4/13/12
Posts: 28060
BiggGunn -
NoNeed4aScreenName - 
NoNeed4aScreenName -
Stache -
EFM - 

Really interesting interactive graphic of the yield curve by the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/upshot/inverted-yield-curve-bonds-football-analogy.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

 


This is really cool. It looks like it inverted in 2000 just prior to the tech bubble bursting and then again at the middle peak in 2007 before the GFC. Am I missing any others?

Goes back 45 years as an accurate predictor 

I would have to think that just prior to the "crash" of 87. 

 

Unfortunate that it cuts off at 90


I think I remember reading that it's inverted before every recession since at least 1955, but I don't remember the source.

Just back to 70.  The last 7 recessions.

Edited: 3 days ago
2/4/09
Posts: 5409
EFM -
BiggGunn -
NoNeed4aScreenName - 
NoNeed4aScreenName -
Stache -
EFM - 

Really interesting interactive graphic of the yield curve by the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/upshot/inverted-yield-curve-bonds-football-analogy.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

 


This is really cool. It looks like it inverted in 2000 just prior to the tech bubble bursting and then again at the middle peak in 2007 before the GFC. Am I missing any others?

Goes back 45 years as an accurate predictor 

I would have to think that just prior to the "crash" of 87. 

 

Unfortunate that it cuts off at 90


I think I remember reading that it's inverted before every recession since at least 1955, but I don't remember the source.

Just back to 70.  The last 7 recessions.

Just something comes to my mind. 

 

the 70's was the year that Bretton woods was completely abandoned. Probably nothing but I would love to know if this had any effect on the yield curve becoming an effective predictor 

3 days ago
10/16/10
Posts: 28227
Have there been any inversions that did not precede a recession? Any false signals?
3 days ago
2/4/09
Posts: 5411
Stache - Have there been any inversions that did not precede a recession? Any false signals?

The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years. It offered a false signal just once in that time.

3 days ago
10/16/10
Posts: 28228
NoNeed4aScreenName - 
Stache - Have there been any inversions that did not precede a recession? Any false signals?

The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years. It offered a false signal just once in that time.


Well that's not very good. Then again you have to wonder if the extent to which central banks have been intervening and the bloated size of their balance sheets makes today different. Open market operations aren't new but CBs have played such a huge role over the last decade that's it's possible the yield curve is harder to read than in previous decades.
3 days ago
1/1/01
Posts: 52021
I feel like I'm in an alternate universe. Weren't there negative interest rates for a significant time under Obama?

Either way, this is all scare tactics by the MSM. They would LOVE to panic people into a financial crisis for the mere purpose of blaming Trump and making him lose a 2nd term.

Call it what you will, but my mom (and everyone else I know in that age bracket) suddenly lost HALF of their life savings, retirement, and stock values under obama. If everyone were to lose HALF of their value under Trump, could you imagine the catastrophic names they'd be giving it? The Trump Ultra Depression! The world has ended! But under obama, there isn't even a name for it...there was literally no name-tag assigned to everyone losing half their worth. It just came and went like nothing. No apologies or anything.
3 days ago
5/14/10
Posts: 6254
banco - Looks like Trump's reelection is dependent on the Fed.

Why would this affect Trump's reelection? This is Obama's economy!
3 days ago
2/4/09
Posts: 5412
Stache -
NoNeed4aScreenName - 
Stache - Have there been any inversions that did not precede a recession? Any false signals?

The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years. It offered a false signal just once in that time.


Well that's not very good. Then again you have to wonder if the extent to which central banks have been intervening and the bloated size of their balance sheets makes today different. Open market operations aren't new but CBs have played such a huge role over the last decade that's it's possible the yield curve is harder to read than in previous decades.

I also believe the yield curve can revert even before the recession begins

Edited: 3 days ago
2/4/09
Posts: 5413
NoNeed4aScreenName -
Stache -
NoNeed4aScreenName - 
Stache - Have there been any inversions that did not precede a recession? Any false signals?

The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years. It offered a false signal just once in that time.


Well that's not very good. Then again you have to wonder if the extent to which central banks have been intervening and the bloated size of their balance sheets makes today different. Open market operations aren't new but CBs have played such a huge role over the last decade that's it's possible the yield curve is harder to read than in previous decades.

I also believe the yield curve can revert even before the recession begins

Image attachement fail. Was trying to show the curve flip then revert prior to the 2008-2009

 

3 days ago
7/26/12
Posts: 31624
BiggGunn -
NoNeed4aScreenName - 
NoNeed4aScreenName -
Stache -
EFM - 

Really interesting interactive graphic of the yield curve by the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/upshot/inverted-yield-curve-bonds-football-analogy.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

 


This is really cool. It looks like it inverted in 2000 just prior to the tech bubble bursting and then again at the middle peak in 2007 before the GFC. Am I missing any others?

Goes back 45 years as an accurate predictor 

I would have to think that just prior to the "crash" of 87. 

 

Unfortunate that it cuts off at 90


I think I remember reading that it's inverted before every recession since at least 1955, but I don't remember the source.

True but also inverts happen and no recession occurs. It’s a perfect indicator post recession kicking in.

Edited: 3 days ago
2/4/09
Posts: 5414
EFM -
NoNeed4aScreenName -
NoNeed4aScreenName -
Stache -
EFM - 

Really interesting interactive graphic of the yield curve by the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/upshot/inverted-yield-curve-bonds-football-analogy.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

 


This is really cool. It looks like it inverted in 2000 just prior to the tech bubble bursting and then again at the middle peak in 2007 before the GFC. Am I missing any others?

Goes back 45 years as an accurate predictor 

I would have to think that just prior to the "crash" of 87. 

 

Unfortunate that it cuts off at 90

87 want a recession.

Look what happened just after the inversion in this image. It results in the 90's recession. I was also making assumpion from the chart that began with the 90's my bad. 

 

But here's a 80's recession for ya 

 

The early 1980s recession in the United States began in July 1981 and ended in November 1982. One cause was the Federal Reserve's contractionary monetary policy, which sought to rein in the high inflation. In the wake of the 1973 oil crisis and the 1979 energy crisis, stagflation began to afflict the economy.