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Who Will Be President?
By JOSH KATZ UPDATED August 12, 2016
Hillary Clinton has an 87% chance of winning the presidency.
The Upshot's elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton's chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a field goal.
From now until Election Day, we'll update our estimates with each new poll, as well as collect the ratings of other news organizations. You can chart different paths to victory below. Here's how our estimates have changed over time:
Charts and data