PoliticalGround Clinton has an 87% chance of winning the presidenc

Edited: 8/12/16 2:34 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 66318
As it stands now...

Who Will Be President?
By JOSH KATZ UPDATED August 12, 2016

Hillary Clinton has an 87% chance of winning the presidency.



The Upshot's elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton's chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a field goal.

From now until Election Day, we'll update our estimates with each new poll, as well as collect the ratings of other news organizations. You can chart different paths to victory below. Here's how our estimates have changed over time:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0

Charts and data
8/12/16 2:36 PM
6/13/03
Posts: 9278
You don't even have to go out and vote that day Hillary voters. Just stay home like you do every day
8/12/16 2:36 PM
1/2/15
Posts: 1644
Yup, business as usual Phone Post 3.0
8/12/16 2:49 PM
4/13/12
Posts: 6046

The Republican states according to the poll:

Ariz.

Ind.

Mo.

Alaska

Miss.

Mont.

Tex.

S.C.

N.D.

Ark.

La.

Ky.

Idaho

S.D.

Utah

Tenn.

Neb.

Kan.

Wyo.

Ala.

Okla.

W.Va.

why are all the shitty states republican?

8/12/16 2:52 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 66696
40% of the country would elect Hilary's corpse into office.
8/12/16 2:55 PM
9/18/03
Posts: 4300
myersei -

The Republican states according to the poll:

Ariz.

Ind.

Mo.

Alaska

Miss.

Mont.

Tex.

S.C.

N.D.

Ark.

La.

Ky.

Idaho

S.D.

Utah

Tenn.

Neb.

Kan.

Wyo.

Ala.

Okla.

W.Va.

why are all the shitty states republican?

States with budget surpluses are shitty? Phone Post 3.0
8/12/16 2:56 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 101933
Illinois isn't Republican.
8/12/16 2:58 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 66319
FivethirtyEight is currently forecasting an 87.5% chance of Trump losing.
8/12/16 2:59 PM
7/14/08
Posts: 21186
myersei -

The Republican states according to the poll:

Ariz.

Ind.

Mo.

Alaska

Miss.

Mont.

Tex.

S.C.

N.D.

Ark.

La.

Ky.

Idaho

S.D.

Utah

Tenn.

Neb.

Kan.

Wyo.

Ala.

Okla.

W.Va.

why are all the shitty states republican?

As a resident of a Dem dominated state, we suck as well. Phone Post 3.0
8/12/16 3:02 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 66320
TravenBJJ - 
attjack - FivethirtyEight is currently forecasting an 87.5% chance of Trump losing.
she has your vote Phone Post 3.0

Certainly not but if saying that that makes you feel better about supporting one of these monumental pieces of shit than by all means tell yourself that.
8/12/16 3:02 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 10838
There's a 96% chance that all these statistics are made upon the spot.
8/12/16 3:03 PM
7/27/13
Posts: 7058
myersei -

The Republican states according to the poll:

Ariz.

Ind.

Mo.

Alaska

Miss.

Mont.

Tex.

S.C.

N.D.

Ark.

La.

Ky.

Idaho

S.D.

Utah

Tenn.

Neb.

Kan.

Wyo.

Ala.

Okla.

W.Va.

why are all the shitty states republican?

Isn't Chicago in a Dem state?

As well as Detroit and Baltimore?

And aren't those pretty much the worst cities in the US?

8/12/16 3:04 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 66321
Kakkarotto_san - There's a 96% chance that all these statistics are made upon the spot.

8/12/16 3:04 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 59152
FiveThirtyEight polls-plus model only has it at 76.9% which seems more accurate. It takes economic and historical data into account, not just polling.
8/12/16 3:06 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 66322
Predictwise has it 79% chance of Trump being a massive failure
8/12/16 3:06 PM
2/2/15
Posts: 2676
attjack - 
TravenBJJ - 
attjack - FivethirtyEight is currently forecasting an 87.5% chance of Trump losing.
she has your vote Phone Post 3.0

Certainly not but if saying that that makes you feel better about supporting one of these monumental pieces of shit than by all means tell yourself that.

lol you lying sack of shit, there is 0% chance you DON'T vote for Clinton.
Edited: 8/12/16 3:07 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 66323
TravenBJJ - 
attjack -
TravenBJJ - 
attjack - FivethirtyEight is currently forecasting an 87.5% chance of Trump losing.
she has your vote Phone Post 3.0

Certainly not but if saying that that makes you feel better about supporting one of these monumental pieces of shit than by all means tell yourself that.
shut the fuck up. You only post positive shit about her and defend her if it's negative. Grow a pair of nuts for a change Phone Post 3.0

You're triggered. Take a deep breath. Now what positive things have I posted about Clinton? Calling her a monumental POS?
8/12/16 3:08 PM
7/12/11
Posts: 3503
I would vote a pylon over trump. The republicans fucked up this year ! Phone Post 3.0
8/12/16 3:09 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 66324
Bilge Water - 
attjack - 
TravenBJJ - 
attjack - FivethirtyEight is currently forecasting an 87.5% chance of Trump losing.
she has your vote Phone Post 3.0

Certainly not but if saying that that makes you feel better about supporting one of these monumental pieces of shit than by all means tell yourself that.

lol you lying sack of shit, there is 0% chance you DON'T vote for Clinton.

8/12/16 3:31 PM
2/14/10
Posts: 13533
attjack -
TravenBJJ - 
attjack - FivethirtyEight is currently forecasting an 87.5% chance of Trump losing.
she has your vote Phone Post 3.0

Certainly not but if saying that that makes you feel better about supporting one of these monumental pieces of shit than by all means tell yourself that.
And there you go with this lie again... Grow a pair and stand by the nominee that you're shilling for. Phone Post 3.0
8/12/16 3:38 PM
5/13/02
Posts: 28852
He's probably more right than wrong but so far Nate Silver has been wrong on every Trump prediction. Not just one, all of them. Phone Post 3.0
8/12/16 3:38 PM
1/7/09
Posts: 1347
Technical Primates -
myersei -

The Republican states according to the poll:

Ariz.

Ind.

Mo.

Alaska

Miss.

Mont.

Tex.

S.C.

N.D.

Ark.

La.

Ky.

Idaho

S.D.

Utah

Tenn.

Neb.

Kan.

Wyo.

Ala.

Okla.

W.Va.

why are all the shitty states republican?

Isn't Chicago in a Dem state?

As well as Detroit and Baltimore?

And aren't those pretty much the worst cities in the US?

All major cities vote Democrat. Yes even in the South. Phone Post 3.0
8/12/16 3:39 PM
4/13/12
Posts: 6047
TravenBJJ -
myersei -

The Republican states according to the poll:

Ariz.

Ind.

Mo.

Alaska

Miss.

Mont.

Tex.

S.C.

N.D.

Ark.

La.

Ky.

Idaho

S.D.

Utah

Tenn.

Neb.

Kan.

Wyo.

Ala.

Okla.

W.Va.

why are all the shitty states republican?

what states do you consider good states? Phone Post 3.0

coastal, mostly.  states with natural beauty and decent weather.  places with cities that attract interesting people and things like sports teams, restaurants, art, people of influence.  hot chicks.

8/12/16 3:40 PM
3/8/13
Posts: 4298
Here We Are just jumped off the Trump tower. His work is done now that the cunt will inevitably win. No need to move on. Phone Post 3.0
8/12/16 3:42 PM
4/13/12
Posts: 6048
Technical Primates -
myersei -

The Republican states according to the poll:

Ariz.

Ind.

Mo.

Alaska

Miss.

Mont.

Tex.

S.C.

N.D.

Ark.

La.

Ky.

Idaho

S.D.

Utah

Tenn.

Neb.

Kan.

Wyo.

Ala.

Okla.

W.Va.

why are all the shitty states republican?

Isn't Chicago in a Dem state?

As well as Detroit and Baltimore?

And aren't those pretty much the worst cities in the US?

chicago's an awesome city, have you ever been there?  crime on the south side is terrible, but it's isolated to that area.  the rest of the city is awesome.