PoliticalGround Do U Predict PAINFUL RECESSION or MAGAII?

5/26/20 9:56 PM
2/4/07
Posts: 32739
theraskal -
TFK_HossPearson - 

I predict you’ll slip up and accidentally post as one of your alt accounts. 


LOL I'm not some LOSER which needs to create multiple accounts to HATE on and/or CyberStalk some other poster or use multiple accounts to PUMP his own threads!

plot twist: TFK_HossPearson is one of your alts

5/26/20 9:59 PM
10/1/16
Posts: 3915
kingofpancakes - 
stuvwxyz - 
jcblass -
Painful recession where entire sectors of the economy struggle to make a fraction of what they once did. I am talking about theme parks, movie theaters, live event production, professional sports, travel, concerts, summer music festivals, universities, any of the "cons" i.e., crimecon, aliencon, foodcon, comiccon, horrorcon, that whole industry is dead. 
 
Those handfuls of industries amount to millions of jobs. All gone or seriously reduced for the next year or so. That will put extreme competition on all other jobs, as those workers spread out to try and work elsewhere. Also, the companies that do survive this and do stay open will be doing so at a heavily reduced staff, so even when they start to re-hire, they are not going to hire someone new, they will probably fall back to some of the ones they laid off and bring them back slowly. So you will have a lot of people who need a foot in the door, don't have an industry to work in, but can't find much success. 
 
I don't see any hiring until after the election, but most likely the new year, and as I said earlier, these won't be "new hires" it will be re-hiring some of the people who were laid off...the workforce is going to sustain massive long-term cuts and that will have a large negative impact on the health of the economy. 
 
Does anything think travel or cruise ships will see even 60% of their business in the next year? I think not. How about professional sports? Do you really think we will see 90k fans watching SEC football this year? No way, what about all the vendors who rely on that traffic to sell things? the SEC is just one conference, start multiplying that out. None of this is happening.  This accounts for a massive part of the economy. It's bad. 
 
I have said since the beginning there needs to be the medical people speaking about the state of the virus followed by an economist who is talking about the long term repercussions of the shutdown. Let the people start to decide how they want to move forward. The response to the virus and those economic implications are going to be what people remember.
 

I trust Trump to do the better job on the economy, mainly because the last thing we need is MORE cheap labor, illegal immigration and free give aways to illegals on the backend of something like this. However, if the Democrats take over, there will be an all out push to "make things right" for the illegals. Americans will suffer more, businesses will suffer more, tax payers will suffer more. Trump has a massive ego, he will be laser focused on getting the economic numbers solid again so he can brag about it. 

 

When has Trump ever been laser focused on anything?  You had some solid points but I’m not sure he knows how to focus. 


With all due respect, you don't know what fudge you're talking about.


This. Trump can be focused when he wants. When she's married and he moves on her like a bitch, he's relentless. 

5/26/20 10:01 PM
5/18/11
Posts: 7841
VTCO -

It depends on what policies Biden will put in place, and it also largely depends on what moves he will make within his first 100 days.

 

I think he is very pragmatic in his approach to economic recovery, but it will probably be around 2 years or so into his first term before you see a real comeback, and a lot of that will be contingent on more stimulus to small businesses.

Assuming Biden makes it to the election, then assuming he wins, are you really assuming he lasts 100 days? He is barely functioning as it is.

5/26/20 10:41 PM
10/1/16
Posts: 3921
Huggsbear - 
VTCO -

It depends on what policies Biden will put in place, and it also largely depends on what moves he will make within his first 100 days.

 

I think he is very pragmatic in his approach to economic recovery, but it will probably be around 2 years or so into his first term before you see a real comeback, and a lot of that will be contingent on more stimulus to small businesses.

Assuming Biden makes it to the election, then assuming he wins, are you really assuming he lasts 100 days? He is barely functioning as it is.


This could be a Biden campaign selling point. He's a one term president, just to get rid of Trump. After 4 years he'll retire from the presidency and let new dems take over. 

5/26/20 10:54 PM
4/12/11
Posts: 13798
Road Warrior Fin -

Slowed or no growth, pain in some industries - I can say with certainty there is no quick bounceback that will be happening.

 

Optimism and hope does not stimulate an economy.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/26/economy-track-rapid-v-shaped-recovery-says-bank-englands-chief/

This guy thinks a V shaped recovery is coming.

5/26/20 11:05 PM
10/1/16
Posts: 3926

OP doesn't get it. It doesn't matter how long and painful a recession. Trumptards are going to MAGA anyway. 

5/26/20 11:20 PM
4/12/11
Posts: 13799
Flavorful -

OP doesn't get it. It doesn't matter how long and painful a recession. Trumptards are going to MAGA anyway. 

Tropes and insults are not convincing arguements.

5/26/20 11:21 PM
10/1/16
Posts: 3931
BubblesNS - 
Flavorful -

OP doesn't get it. It doesn't matter how long and painful a recession. Trumptards are going to MAGA anyway. 

Tropes and insults are not convincing arguements.


You referring to me or the president? Serious question. 

5/27/20 12:12 AM
8/20/08
Posts: 5085

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52752172

 

Economist Nouriel Roubini has warned of a prolonged downturn and sluggish recovery from the coronavirus.

Nicknamed Dr Doom for his gloomy predictions, Professor Roubini said there are some jobs that simply will not come back after this crisis.

Even if the global economy recovers this year from the impact of the coronavirus, it will be "anaemic".

He warned of "unprecedented" recession. Professor Roubini foresaw the financial crisis in 2008 before many others.

"During the global financial crisis it took about three years until output fell sharply," he told the BBC's Talking Asia programme from his home in New York.

"This time around it didn't take three years, not even three months. In three weeks there was a freefall of every component."

Drastic

Professor Roubini also said any recovery will be in the shape of what economists call a "U", or even "something closer to an L" - what he calls a "Greater Depression."

A U-shaped recovery means that growth will fall and bottom out, and then pick up only after a prolonged period of slow or no growth.

An L shaped recovery is even more drastic - falling sharply and staying there for an extended period of time.

That's because of how many jobs have been lost in both rich and poor countries as a result of massive lockdowns to combat the virus.

"These jobs that are gone are going to come back only in part, with lower wages, no benefits, part-time," he said.

"There will be even more insecurity of jobs and income and wages for the average working person."

Bouncing back?

His warning comes as the number of coronavirus cases globally tops five million, with many countries seeing a second wave of infections and struggling to reopen their economies - a key factor in whether economic growth can bounce back quickly.

"You can open the stores but the question is whether they're going to come back," he says. "Most of the shopping centres in China are still empty. Half of the flights aren't there. German shops are open but who wants to go and shop?"

Emerging Asia though will see better growth than "other advanced economies."

But there will be a greater split between the US and China, and many Asian countries will be forced to choose between the two superpowers.

"Each one of them is going to say to the rest of the world, either you are with us or against us," he says. "Either you use my AI systems, my 5G, my technologies, my robotics. Or you are using the one of my rival's. Therefore there is going to be a more divided world."

Professor Roubini's moniker of Dr Doom was earned after he was famously and consistently negative on the global economy's prospects - even as the US entered a stellar decade of stock market returns.

When asked whether holding a negative position for so long meant that at some point he would almost certainly be right, he told me he prefers the name Dr Realist, to Dr Doom.

"When everyone said that China was going to have a hard landing in 2015, I said it will be bumpy," he told me. "I've actually been more optimistic than Wall Street was. The people who say I'm a broken clock that is right twice a day have not followed me."

5/27/20 1:43 AM
10/2/12
Posts: 9864
Sandy Pantz -
theraskal -
TFK_HossPearson - 

I predict you’ll slip up and accidentally post as one of your alt accounts. 


LOL I'm not some LOSER which needs to create multiple accounts to HATE on and/or CyberStalk some other poster or use multiple accounts to PUMP his own threads!

plot twist: TFK_HossPearson is one of your alts

The perfect crime...

5/27/20 5:22 AM
12/3/02
Posts: 47899

Why can’t we have both?

5/27/20 6:36 AM
5/8/11
Posts: 6276

it will be hard to convince business owners to open again if they fear the Gov can just shut them down anytime they feel a moral obligation to protect people from their own hysteria.  I was considering branching out on my own but now I don't want to spend the cash and I would rather buy a large piece of property far away from the overreach of the gov and get set up for the next crash.  

However, if there is any hope, I think the current president is the right man for the job.  He is not the "pandemic" president i wanted him to be but I think he can do more for the economy than his competitors.  

5/27/20 8:36 AM
3/18/02
Posts: 93364

jobs are gone that arent coming back due to the faggotry

its gonna be a rough ride

5/27/20 8:43 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 15904
I think a lot of jobs lost are gone for good. but if we learn and bring back more manufacturing from china we can add more and better jobs than we lost.

5/27/20 9:19 AM
3/18/02
Posts: 93374

yeah if anyones gona take it to china its def joe biden 

5/27/20 8:47 PM
12/4/11
Posts: 561

Anyone reading too much into unemployment numbers isn’t thinking critically. They are huge because the government forced businesses to shut down, so workers weren’t needed. When they open back up, most jobs come back. Of course some are gone for good and others may take longer, but we’ll be fine if the asinine government stays out of it. 

5/28/20 12:38 AM
4/13/12
Posts: 34888
GFA -

Anyone reading too much into unemployment numbers isn’t thinking critically. They are huge because the government forced businesses to shut down, so workers weren’t needed. When they open back up, most jobs come back. Of course some are gone for good and others may take longer, but we’ll be fine if the asinine government stays out of it. 

i'm afraid you're the one that isn't thinking critically my friend or at least haven't spent much time reading basic econ.

the current unemployment number is almost 40M and growing.  so far it's 5x 2009.  that unemployment number took us almost 10 years to bounce out of completely.

the worst part isn't even here yet.  companies have only begun to fail.  less than a third of businesses surveyed said they could last more than a few months under lockdown.  the PPP isn't enough to keep most businesses doors open.  even if 75% of them come back at 75% capacity (and that's a huge fucking if, many are saying 50% at 50% or worse), that's still roughly 18M people unemployed.  that's about 12% of the workforce.  that's massive and that's being conservative.  the impacts to the economy could easily escalate and become worse, crippling corporate profits, sending the stock market south by 50%, all kinds of doom and gloom shit.  and the likelihood of 'pent up demand' bouncing us out of this is a pipe dream.

that said, the fed still has a ton of tricks up their sleeve but none of them are guaranteed.

my advice to anyone right now is make yourself extremely valuable at work.  if you're not working, tap into your creative side.  try writing books or something.  things aren't going back to normal anytime soon and people are going to be locked up for a while.

6/1/20 9:37 PM
4/12/11
Posts: 13829
Flavorful -
BubblesNS - 
Flavorful -

OP doesn't get it. It doesn't matter how long and painful a recession. Trumptards are going to MAGA anyway. 

Tropes and insults are not convincing arguements.


You referring to me or the president? Serious question. 

You. Trump is a politician. Tropes and insults are a part of the job sadly. 

6/1/20 10:37 PM
1/17/03
Posts: 17824

It will come back in huge way

6/1/20 10:57 PM
4/13/12
Posts: 34946
Erik Apple -

It will come back in huge way

Eventually, but not anytime in the next 2 or 3 years.  We are at the front end of a massive global recession.