PoliticalGround Trump is going down in flames.

10/24/16 4:30 AM
6/6/12
Posts: 726
David@accu -

.... Well first of all it's a 538 is exactly how many people read that shit site. They are beyond biased. How absurd 86%, you have to be fucking joking.  Even the polls we just found out were rigged aren't as bold as to give Clinton such a lead.  

Lol like pratty said; those are her odds of winning the election. 538 perfectly predicted the past election right to each single state. Hillary will win the election that's pretty much guaranteed at this point. Republican Party's focus has shifted from trying to win this election to preventing further damage to the party. 

10/24/16 4:48 AM
6/6/12
Posts: 727

That's another thing that surprises me about trump supporters. Trump's sole role in this election was never to win presidency, it's very clear that his single objective was to destroy the Republican Party from within. Yet people support a man who will leave their political party broken. Trump talks about Trojan horses when he himself is one. 

10/24/16 5:43 AM
8/31/07
Posts: 9806
Trump is shiza, the god of creatively shitting on your team.

Let 100 turdblossoms flower!
10/24/16 5:44 AM
4/28/06
Posts: 5399
superCulo - 

That's another thing that surprises me about trump supporters. Trump's sole role in this election was never to win presidency, it's very clear that his single objective was to destroy the Republican Party from within. Yet people support a man who will leave their political party broken. Trump talks about Trojan horses when he himself is one. 


I think you're vastly overestimating Trump if you think that was his plan. I think he was just in it for his own ego and to advance his media persona and never thought he'd get that far. The real tragedy for the Rep party is how they couldn't come up with anybody that could beat this buffoon from within their own party. IMO the downfall of the Reps was when they started a love affair with the Tea Party extremists. They went full retard there and it's been downhill ever since.
10/24/16 6:01 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 26835
^this

The only things that can save Trump right now is a massive scandal unrelated to Wikileaks (people aren't trusting it), something affecting voter turnout, or that people aren't admitting they plan on voting for Trump Phone Post 3.0
10/24/16 6:57 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 6632
David@accu - 

.... Well first of all it's a 538 is exactly how many people read that shit site. They are beyond biased. How absurd 86%, you have to be fucking joking.  Even the polls we just found out were rigged aren't as bold as to give Clinton such a lead.  


solid reading comprehension 

As for the 538 people that 538 people that read it....not quite but close

10.7 million unique visitors in January 2016.[82]   

10/24/16 7:12 AM
6/20/13
Posts: 4445
drywallerdave - Lol. Trump will still win Phone Post 3.0
Yep.. Many will be shocked. The Dens have started to believe their own rigged polls Phone Post 3.0
Edited: 10/24/16 7:24 AM
2/22/09
Posts: 9355

https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/silver-electionupdate-1021-11.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=575&ssl=1

10/24/16 7:27 AM
11/10/11
Posts: 1460
RenatoCocopreta - Polls are worthless, in the only legit poll, the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll. Trump is up by 2 points.

You guys need to get up to speed, wikileaks exposed Hillary's poll tampering, straight from Podesta's mailbox. This email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with state by state poll-rigging recommendations.

From: tmatzzie@gmail.com <tmatzzie@gmail.com>
To: georgerakis@gmail.com <georgerakis@gmail.com>; Andy Meyer
Sent: Thu Jan 10 21:21:07 2008
Subject: Meet and polling design
Hey, when can we meet? I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling. -Tom

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/new-podesta-email-exposes-dem-playbook-rigging-polls-through-oversamples

I'd also like to know what makes IBD/TIPP the only legit poll. Personally, I trust 538 the most, but I'm interested in hearing other views. 

Also, that email is from 2008. Is there anything newer? It definitely shows intent of poll skewing, so it's possible the same is happening now. It's also possible that because it didn't work against Obama, her campaign has abandoned that tactic. 

10/24/16 7:38 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 26836
I'm not sure I'd trust IBD... They've had very little change over the last couple months. No big bump for Trump after sept 11, no change after the debates and the pussy comments etc

That and they're just so different from every other poll makes me think they're doing something wrong Phone Post 3.0
10/24/16 7:44 AM
2/22/09
Posts: 9356

Nate SIlver's take on IBD/TIPP back in 2009:

My advice would be to completely ignore this poll. There are pollsters out there that have an agenda but are highly competent, and there are pollsters that are nonpartisan but not particularly skilled. Rarely, however, do you find the whole package: that special pollster which is both biased and inept. IBD/TIPP is one of the few exceptions.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ibdtipp-doctors-poll-is-not-trustworthy/

10/24/16 9:02 AM
9/13/06
Posts: 1369
a 50k person survey


http://truthfeed.com/yuge-new-national-poll-of-50k-people-has-dramatically-different-outcome-than-media-polling/16985/






10/24/16 9:35 AM
10/2/10
Posts: 13236
Pratty - I'm not sure I'd trust IBD... They've had very little change over the last couple months. No big bump for Trump after sept 11, no change after the debates and the pussy comments etc

That and they're just so different from every other poll makes me think they're doing something wrong Phone Post 3.0

That actually makes complete sense.  Both sides are thoroughly entrenched.  Nothing will change their minds.

 

And wasn't IBD the most accurate poll in 2012?

10/24/16 10:03 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 68072
yabadaba -

Nate SIlver's take on IBD/TIPP back in 2009:

My advice would be to completely ignore this poll. There are pollsters out there that have an agenda but are highly competent, and there are pollsters that are nonpartisan but not particularly skilled. Rarely, however, do you find the whole package: that special pollster which is both biased and inept. IBD/TIPP is one of the few exceptions.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ibdtipp-doctors-poll-is-not-trustworthy/

Lol Phone Post 3.0
Edited: 10/24/16 10:10 AM
11/9/10
Posts: 49254
LawlerPushedInMyBrownEye -
Sogsteel - Welfare recipients, SJW"s, and illegal immigrants rejoice!
You forgot non mental midgets Phone Post 3.0

It takes a mental giant to ignore all the corruption of Hillary and the DNC and still support them...

 

And no I did not vote for Trump.

10/24/16 10:25 AM
1/1/01
Posts: 26837
Glovegate -
Pratty - I'm not sure I'd trust IBD... They've had very little change over the last couple months. No big bump for Trump after sept 11, no change after the debates and the pussy comments etc

That and they're just so different from every other poll makes me think they're doing something wrong Phone Post 3.0

That actually makes complete sense.  Both sides are thoroughly entrenched.  Nothing will change their minds.

 

And wasn't IBD the most accurate poll in 2012?

Yup. Alongside Nate Silver

I just find it odd that there's been no change with events Phone Post 3.0
10/24/16 10:30 AM
11/30/12
Posts: 694
jsize03 -
RenatoCocopreta - Polls are worthless, in the only legit poll, the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll. Trump is up by 2 points.

You guys need to get up to speed, wikileaks exposed Hillary's poll tampering, straight from Podesta's mailbox. This email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with state by state poll-rigging recommendations.

From: tmatzzie@gmail.com <tmatzzie@gmail.com>
To: georgerakis@gmail.com <georgerakis@gmail.com>; Andy Meyer
Sent: Thu Jan 10 21:21:07 2008
Subject: Meet and polling design
Hey, when can we meet? I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling. -Tom

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/new-podesta-email-exposes-dem-playbook-rigging-polls-through-oversamples

I'd also like to know what makes IBD/TIPP the only legit poll. Personally, I trust 538 the most, but I'm interested in hearing other views. 

Also, that email is from 2008. Is there anything newer? It definitely shows intent of poll skewing, so it's possible the same is happening now. It's also possible that because it didn't work against Obama, her campaign has abandoned that tactic. 

Nothing. Homeboy is going to be in a world of hurt November 9. 

Edited: 10/24/16 12:19 PM
8/26/05
Posts: 12722
jsize03 - 
RenatoCocopreta - Polls are worthless, in the only legit poll, the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll. Trump is up by 2 points.

You guys need to get up to speed, wikileaks exposed Hillary's poll tampering, straight from Podesta's mailbox. This email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with state by state poll-rigging recommendations.

From: tmatzzie@gmail.com
To: georgerakis@gmail.com ; Andy Meyer
Sent: Thu Jan 10 21:21:07 2008
Subject: Meet and polling design
Hey, when can we meet? I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling. -Tom

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/new-podesta-email-exposes-dem-playbook-rigging-polls-through-oversamples

 

I'd also like to know what makes IBD/TIPP the only legit poll. Personally, I trust 538 the most, but I'm interested in hearing other views. 

Also, that email is from 2008. Is there anything newer? It definitely shows intent of poll skewing, so it's possible the same is happening now. It's also possible that because it didn't work against Obama, her campaign has abandoned that tactic. 

 

Good point about the 2008 date, but it is still happening in this election... all you need to do is look at the methodologies and sampling for the polls... and the way they have changed throughout the summer/fall.

... the overlapping connections and conflicts of interest are just amazing... when this stuff goes on in the private sector, the politicians go berzerk... for example, the polling company for CBS (I think - or else it was one of the other major networks) is also a strategic consultant for Clinton's largest PAC.

BTW, this memo touches just a bit on polling, but the focus is largely on demoralizing on-line tactics... kind of interesting:

https://www.scribd.com/document/327697446/CTR-Digital-Disruption-Memo

 

10/24/16 12:36 PM
11/28/08
Posts: 14415
jsize03 -
RenatoCocopreta - Polls are worthless, in the only legit poll, the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll. Trump is up by 2 points.

You guys need to get up to speed, wikileaks exposed Hillary's poll tampering, straight from Podesta's mailbox. This email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with state by state poll-rigging recommendations.

From: tmatzzie@gmail.com <tmatzzie@gmail.com>
To: georgerakis@gmail.com <georgerakis@gmail.com>; Andy Meyer
Sent: Thu Jan 10 21:21:07 2008
Subject: Meet and polling design
Hey, when can we meet? I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling. -Tom

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/new-podesta-email-exposes-dem-playbook-rigging-polls-through-oversamples

I'd also like to know what makes IBD/TIPP the only legit poll. Personally, I trust 538 the most, but I'm interested in hearing other views. 

Also, that email is from 2008. Is there anything newer? It definitely shows intent of poll skewing, so it's possible the same is happening now. It's also possible that because it didn't work against Obama, her campaign has abandoned that tactic. 

Keep in mind that 538 doesn't do any polling. It just aggregates and analyzes polls.

They include IBD/TIPP results in their model.

10/24/16 1:01 PM
8/12/03
Posts: 12848
I'm going with this guy.

"Political science professor Helmut Norpoth, who has accurately called the results of the last five presidential elections, still asserts that Donald Trump has an 87% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton despite Clinton being ahead in the polls." Phone Post 3.0
10/24/16 3:29 PM
1/9/02
Posts: 39783

some of this is the Dems trying to suppress turnout because that's the main way Trump wins

10/24/16 3:34 PM
4/28/15
Posts: 5140
Jackmerius Tacktheritrix -
jsize03 -
RenatoCocopreta - Polls are worthless, in the only legit poll, the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll. Trump is up by 2 points.

You guys need to get up to speed, wikileaks exposed Hillary's poll tampering, straight from Podesta's mailbox. This email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with state by state poll-rigging recommendations.

From: tmatzzie@gmail.com <tmatzzie@gmail.com>
To: georgerakis@gmail.com <georgerakis@gmail.com>; Andy Meyer
Sent: Thu Jan 10 21:21:07 2008
Subject: Meet and polling design
Hey, when can we meet? I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling. -Tom

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/new-podesta-email-exposes-dem-playbook-rigging-polls-through-oversamples

I'd also like to know what makes IBD/TIPP the only legit poll. Personally, I trust 538 the most, but I'm interested in hearing other views. 

Also, that email is from 2008. Is there anything newer? It definitely shows intent of poll skewing, so it's possible the same is happening now. It's also possible that because it didn't work against Obama, her campaign has abandoned that tactic. 

Nothing. Homeboy is going to be in a world of hurt November 9. 

"Homeboy"? Phone Post 3.0
10/24/16 3:40 PM
8/26/03
Posts: 26740
gregbrady -

some of this is the Dems trying to suppress turnout because that's the main way Trump wins

True. Voter suppression is definitely a gop playbook technique...

Oh, is that not what you meant? Phone Post 3.0
10/24/16 3:48 PM
12/26/05
Posts: 34164
attjack -
yabadaba -

Nate SIlver's take on IBD/TIPP back in 2009:

My advice would be to completely ignore this poll. There are pollsters out there that have an agenda but are highly competent, and there are pollsters that are nonpartisan but not particularly skilled. Rarely, however, do you find the whole package: that special pollster which is both biased and inept. IBD/TIPP is one of the few exceptions.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ibdtipp-doctors-poll-is-not-trustworthy/

Lol Phone Post 3.0
Silver could be correct in this...yet if he's correct, why and how exactly would they call it right on the one for Obama?

I tend to think the polls are right and Trump is down, but what Nate says doesn't wash with history. Phone Post 3.0
10/24/16 3:48 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 68079
gregbrady - 

some of this is the Dems trying to suppress turnout because that's the main way Trump wins


You feel that low turnout would hurt the Republican candidate?