UnderGround Forums First fighter to be concussed loses 98% of time

12/3/20 11:58 AM
8/31/13
Posts: 1604

An interesting study was published in the Journal of The Physician and Sports Medicine suggesting that in combat sports competition the first athlete to sustain a concussion in a bout will go on to lose 98% of the time.

In the study, titled Concussion Occurrence And Recognition In Professional Boxing and MMA Matches, an 8 person panel comprised of physician and non physician members viewed footage of 30 boxing bouts and 30 MMA bouts. The personnel noted whenever they believed a concussion took place. Interestingly both the physicians and non physician members were largely in agreement as to when a concussive blow occurred.

The study noted that “The fighter that sustained the first concussion ultimately lost 98% of the time” with the authors suggesting that this observation may guide policy changes that improve brain health in combat sports.

The full abstract reads as follows:

Abstract

Objectives: Determine, through video reviews, how often concussions occur in combat sport matches, what influence they have on the outcome, and how well non-physician personnel can be trained to recognize concussions.

Methods: This is a retrospective video analysis by an 8-person panel of 60 professional fights (30 boxing and 30 mixed martial arts). Through video review, physician and non-physician personnel recorded details about each probable concussion and determined if and when they would have stopped the fight compared to the official stoppage time.

Results: A concussion was recorded in 47/60 fights. The mean number of concussions per minute of fight time was 0.061 (0.047 for boxers and 0.085 for MMA). When stratifying by outcome of the bout, the mean number of concussions per minute for the winner was 0.010 compared to the loser at 0.111 concussions per minute. The fighter that sustained the first concussion ultimately lost 98% of the time. The physician and non-physician raters had high agreement regarding the number of concussions that occurred to each fighter per match. The physician raters judged that 24 of the 60 fights (11 boxing [37%]; 13 MMA [43 %]) should have been stopped sooner than what occurred.

Conclusion: Recognizing that the concussions often occur in combat sport matches, that the losing fighter almost always is concussed first and tends to sustain more concussions during the fight, along with the demonstration that non-physician personnel can be taught to recognize concussion, may guide policy changes that improve brain health in combat sports.

12/3/20 12:11 PM
6/28/11
Posts: 1653

Very interesting.


That said, there is a large “correlation v causation” issue that would need to be clarified at to really draw conclusions. Specifically, the first fighter to be concussed is generally likely to be the less skilled/powerful striker, so the fact they often go on to lose may not be related to the concussion as much as to the fact that they’re just not as skilled/powerful. 
 

But still, very interesting. 

12/3/20 12:15 PM
8/31/13
Posts: 1605

If you're a gambler betting a live fight as the line moves round after round that is one hell of a statistic to guide your betting if you think one person got concussed

12/3/20 12:23 PM
7/20/04
Posts: 1579

I'm wondering if this relationship is strongest at the highest levels of competition and gets weaker the further down the chain towards regional and local shows you get. BJJ is still quite effective in local shows due to more scarce skills and it is possible that desperation submission wins, even though concussed, may happen more there. 

12/3/20 12:27 PM
2/17/03
Posts: 17156
Choked72 - 

I'm wondering if this relationship is strongest at the highest levels of competition and gets weaker the further down the chain towards regional and local shows you get. BJJ is still quite effective in local shows due to more scarce skills and it is possible that desperation submission wins, even though concussed, may happen more there. 


Interesting question.

12/3/20 12:30 PM
2/17/03
Posts: 17157

Not surprising. Two fights stick out in my mind as great examples of this. Times when a fighter is concussed and simply isn't the same after that.

-DC v. Stipe 3. That fight was effectively over after Stipe rocked and nearly finished DC at the end of round 2. DC was still present, but he wasn't all there for the rest of the fight.

-Shogun v. Jones. Shogun said that the flying knee to start the fight messed him up for the rest. He stayed in it for a while, but the buttons simply wouldn't click for most of the fight.

12/3/20 12:38 PM
3/5/15
Posts: 1909

98% seems high to me, especially in MMA.

 

I'm not challenging the validity of the study but MMA seems to have a lot of come from behind victories plus more ways to win. 

 

I would've guessed around 80-85%. 

 

 

12/3/20 12:49 PM
2/17/03
Posts: 17158
knot eye - 

98% seems high to me, especially in MMA.

 

I'm not challenging the validity of the study but MMA seems to have a lot of come from behind victories plus more ways to win. 

 

I would've guessed around 80-85%. 

 

 


Yeah, I agree that 98% seems high.

Edited: 12/3/20 12:57 PM
10/9/10
Posts: 17315

I suppose if I paid attention to these specific things in a fight maybe I’d be able to take a guess as to when somebody may have been concussed, but it seems strange to just make that assumption then base an entire study around it. I understand these people are physicians who (hopefully) have experience with combat sports. Either way, their findings seem sort of high for MMA. I would think that 30 fights is probably too small of a sample size. 

12/3/20 1:00 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 2096

Does the article specify that the "first concussion" didn't immediately end the fight.  This finding is a lot less interesting if for half of the fights, a dude gets rocked and then immediately gets finished by a flurry.  It's much more interesting if the sample that they're looking at is ONLY fights in which both fighters were concussed at some point.  Doesn't look like that's the case.  

12/3/20 1:27 PM
4/8/10
Posts: 5602
Do they list the bouts they used? Would be interesting to see what fights they used and when they determined the first concussion to be.
12/3/20 1:32 PM
7/21/09
Posts: 3515

The other 2% are Hendo fights...

12/3/20 1:37 PM
6/27/05
Posts: 29986
knot eye -

98% seems high to me, especially in MMA.

 

I'm not challenging the validity of the study but MMA seems to have a lot of come from behind victories plus more ways to win. 

 

I would've guessed around 80-85%. 

 

 

Way too high which makes me believe this is bullshit.

12/3/20 5:06 PM
4/8/10
Posts: 5604
This would be super easy to test for yourself. Next card you watch, just keep track.
12/3/20 5:19 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 41477

Well the sample size is only 30 MMA fights and only 47/60 boxing/MMA fights had concussions so lets say there were 23 concussions in the MMA fights. That is not a large enough sample size to indicate a larger trend across the whole sport.

12/3/20 6:12 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 4179

Fascinating but imo it's very different depending on fight level.
In low level mma the fight fighter hit solid loses the vast majority of the time.
But in the ufc the fighters have far better cardio and durability and fighters seem to come from behind far more often.
Similarly the first fighter to wind up stuck on bottom in local mma loses tge vast vast majority & in the ufc its much less,
At a local show that had 23 fights I once kept track & in the 20 fights that went to the ground the first guy that was stuck there for a couple seconds lost every time except the one time the fighter got a guillotine off the takedown.
I started keeping track for awhile and concluded in ammy and low level pro mma is pretty much first takedown wins. Tho granted some takedowns are from a punch to the face. I kept this in mind in the ufc and found that it was far different. Fighters can defend themselves on bottom and get up much more easily.

12/3/20 10:10 PM
7/16/13
Posts: 5255

98% of statistics are 100% wrong. 

12/3/20 10:19 PM
4/20/08
Posts: 24054

They apparently didnt watch any Big Nog fights

12/4/20 12:07 PM
7/20/04
Posts: 1580
Bill Mahoney -

Fascinating but imo it's very different depending on fight level.
In low level mma the fight fighter hit solid loses the vast majority of the time.
But in the ufc the fighters have far better cardio and durability and fighters seem to come from behind far more often.
Similarly the first fighter to wind up stuck on bottom in local mma loses tge vast vast majority & in the ufc its much less,
At a local show that had 23 fights I once kept track & in the 20 fights that went to the ground the first guy that was stuck there for a couple seconds lost every time except the one time the fighter got a guillotine off the takedown.
I started keeping track for awhile and concluded in ammy and low level pro mma is pretty much first takedown wins. Tho granted some takedowns are from a punch to the face. I kept this in mind in the ufc and found that it was far different. Fighters can defend themselves on bottom and get up much more easily.

Very interesting perspective. The study is under a paywall, but it's critical to know the level of the fights in order to make this data useful.

 

Anybody have access to it?

 

 

12/4/20 12:40 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 41505
Choked72 -
Bill Mahoney -

Fascinating but imo it's very different depending on fight level.
In low level mma the fight fighter hit solid loses the vast majority of the time.
But in the ufc the fighters have far better cardio and durability and fighters seem to come from behind far more often.
Similarly the first fighter to wind up stuck on bottom in local mma loses tge vast vast majority & in the ufc its much less,
At a local show that had 23 fights I once kept track & in the 20 fights that went to the ground the first guy that was stuck there for a couple seconds lost every time except the one time the fighter got a guillotine off the takedown.
I started keeping track for awhile and concluded in ammy and low level pro mma is pretty much first takedown wins. Tho granted some takedowns are from a punch to the face. I kept this in mind in the ufc and found that it was far different. Fighters can defend themselves on bottom and get up much more easily.

Very interesting perspective. The study is under a paywall, but it's critical to know the level of the fights in order to make this data useful.

 

Anybody have access to it?

 

 

The sample size is too small to make the data useful.

12/4/20 12:59 PM
6/27/05
Posts: 29990
Non N00B -

They apparently didnt watch any Big Nog fights

Or Frankie 

12/4/20 1:06 PM
10/2/12
Posts: 10875

How can you diagnose a concussion mid fight?

12/4/20 1:27 PM
2/25/06
Posts: 6635

Wait wait wait...you mean to tell me...if you get HIT SUPER FUCKING HARD to the point of getting a concussion...you will probably lose the fight? Get RIGHT outta town!

12/4/20 1:43 PM
7/20/04
Posts: 1582
BJ Penn Forever - 
Choked72 -
Bill Mahoney -

Fascinating but imo it's very different depending on fight level.
In low level mma the fight fighter hit solid loses the vast majority of the time.
But in the ufc the fighters have far better cardio and durability and fighters seem to come from behind far more often.
Similarly the first fighter to wind up stuck on bottom in local mma loses tge vast vast majority & in the ufc its much less,
At a local show that had 23 fights I once kept track & in the 20 fights that went to the ground the first guy that was stuck there for a couple seconds lost every time except the one time the fighter got a guillotine off the takedown.
I started keeping track for awhile and concluded in ammy and low level pro mma is pretty much first takedown wins. Tho granted some takedowns are from a punch to the face. I kept this in mind in the ufc and found that it was far different. Fighters can defend themselves on bottom and get up much more easily.

Very interesting perspective. The study is under a paywall, but it's critical to know the level of the fights in order to make this data useful.

 

Anybody have access to it?

 

 

The sample size is too small to make the data useful.


A smaller sample size means that the margin of error is higher. It does not invalidate the finding. It might be in error, but sample size in this study isn't the factor
12/4/20 2:21 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 9512

I was concussed in the first 20 seconds of a fight, Renat Myrzoabakov (Moti Hornstien student) hit me with a shin right across my face after Baroni made fun of his afro in the rules meeting (real old show at Longos place in Mineola). I went on to win with a keylock in what seemed to be right after scrambling him to the canvas right after he landed the kick. It turned out that even though the kick did kand in the first 20 seconds, I didnt land the sub until the last minute or so of the fight (thè fight was one 10 minute round). So basically, there was 8 minutes i completely lost track of and i was going on auto pilot. Look at me "Mr. 2%"