UnderGround Forums Ready to Call It a UFC PPV COLLAPSE Yet?

12/21/14 12:52 AM
11/30/13
Posts: 1244
Just so I'm understanding correctly. In Mexico 12.99 gets you everything, in Canada and the U.S. $65 gets you just a ppv? Are they fucking serious?
12/21/14 1:07 AM
11/30/13
Posts: 1245
If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much - Next year will be huge improvement over this year in PPV numbers.

Cormier vs Jones

Silva vs Diaz

Weidman vs Belfort
Ronda vs Zingano

Lawler vs Hendricks III

Cain vs Werdum

CM Pubk debut

All signs also point to GSP and Brock returns

Should be a big rebound in PPV sales, 2014 was shitty with all the injuries and Brock/GSP leaving.

Let's bump this thread next January and talk.

Good news is all PPVs should get purchased by fox or whoever does the new TV deal within 5 years s it won't matter. Sorry Haulport, UFC isn't going away, only going to get bigger. Phone Post 3.0

There are 0 signs pointing to GSP or Brock returning. No one wants to see Hendricks and Lawler fight a 3rd time, CM Punk will be on the pre-lims. Silva v Diaz, Weidman v Belfort and Rousey v Zingano are all incredibly easy to pick fights and Cain v Werdum... well who knows when and if that ever happens. The only fight there that fans are clamoring to see is Jones v Cormier, and sorry friend but that won't be doing a million buys with the grand total of 2 fights anyone wants to see on the card. OP is right, PPV is on it's way out. WWE saw it coming first, so they're sorting their shit out now so they can figure out a way to capitalize on it, as oppose to UFC trying to squeeze every penny out of their customers they can. Now if you'll excuse me, I need to go grab my sweater, it's getting shilly in here.
12/21/14 1:22 AM
5/27/14
Posts: 56
They got the UFC to mainstream but they're horrible businessmen when it comes to maintaining and improving the company...starting with paying their employees peanuts to go out and put on a good show that gets the buys. They're horrible.
12/21/14 1:30 AM
2/28/07
Posts: 20410
If it ain't Dutch, it ain't much - 
Haulport -
The Brotorious B.I.G - Let's say the ufc total ppv buys a year is 5 million. Multiply that by 60 dollars. That's 300 million a year fox would have to pay the ufc for the rights to all of their shows.

Imagine the viewership a fight like jones/dc would have it it were on big fox and was promoted properly. Total Veiwership would be incredible. The money the ufc loses would come back 2 fold with the new viewership alone.

Ppv is a dying breed and the ufc needs to realize this. I love fights but even I won't pay 60 buck for every ppv Phone Post 3.0

Zuffa only sees 47%-53% of the PPV totals. The PPV providers take roughly half. But that is still a big number that they will not find from FOX ($150mm a year)
Fox and ESPN could easily offer that much more then the current Fox deal pays for all the programming. ESPN will pay it, just to cripple FS1. Phone Post 3.0

No they won't. Their ratings are complete shit. Their fans no longer care about their product. TV Execs would lowball just for the fun of it with such terrible ratings. You really don't tv/cable people. These people will cancel a highly rated #2 show and let Netflix pick it up just because their channel is having a change in philosophy...
12/21/14 1:38 AM
2/28/07
Posts: 20413
McSavy005 - They got the UFC to mainstream but they're horrible businessmen when it comes to maintaining and improving the company...starting with paying their employees peanuts to go out and put on a good show that gets the buys. They're horrible.

They only got it mainstream with a Hail Mary called TUF that wasn't even the reality show they wanted to do. They wanted to do "American Promoter" and make it all about Dana and SPIKE told them no and said, "We want fights. Put fighters in a house like Big Brother or the Real World and we'll think about it." Zuffa had to pay for the ENTIRE production because SPIKE didn't want it (no one did) and it cost them $10mm and it was a last ditch bet because they had already dug a $30mm hole.

They got lucky and didn't know WTF to do with that luck and this is what that looks like...
12/21/14 9:28 PM
2/28/07
Posts: 20419
ttt
12/21/14 9:56 PM
6/30/10
Posts: 5899
Boxing PPVs are down too and the WWE have moved to subscriptions, so it's not just the UFC that are selling less PPVs. Also, considering that neither GSP or Anderson fought this year, it's not very surprising.
12/21/14 10:00 PM
10/16/14
Posts: 181
Tad Ghostal - Boxing PPVs are down too and the WWE have moved to subscriptions, so it's not just the UFC that are selling less PPVs. Also, considering that neither GSP or Anderson fought this year, it's not very surprising.

Both of those fighters are on their way out. Who is the UFC going to replace them with. They don't have any future stars. Only stars from the last generation of fighters. This new model that they're trying to push is not conducive to superstars, just some watered down UFC brand that doesn't appeal to people except for hardcore MMA fans.
Edited: 12/22/14 11:19 AM
8/28/02
Posts: 4139

Apparently, one strategy will be to increase PPV prices(hd) again. The first three PPV events of next year are $5 bucks  over UFC 181's price. Whether that will continue for other events in the new year will be something that we'll see i guess :/

12/22/14 3:27 PM
2/28/07
Posts: 20421
dabigchet - haulport, people gave you grief on the other thread because your analysis was shit. not because they were predicting 2014 (especially one without marquee main events) to be a great PPV year.

there are a few factors at play:

- lack of main events that people want to see
- general demise of PPV as viable platform (not just UFC)
- fragmenting of UFC programming (watered down cards on too many platforms)

these are not easy problems to fix. i am sure the UFC would love to get to a unified viewing platform in each market (maybe everything on fightpass + specials on fox in the US) but there are all sorts of factors that will need to be ironed out before that can happen. existing TV deals, desire to hold on the PPV revenue as long as they can, immaturity of fightpass, etc.

2015 should be a much better year for PPV, but it is going to go away eventually and i am sure zuffa realizes this. i was pretty dismayed when the 2015 schedule didn't have at least *some* reduction in PPV events. i know for me, personally, 2014 was the first year in probably 10 that i did not buy a PPV.

Yes, you're right. My analysis of a UFC PPV Model Collapse from JANUARY 9TH 2014 that called the 2013 numbers "worrisome" and spoke of the losses of GSP, Brock and Anderson as contributing factors to PPV buy decline in retrospect (with the knowledge of 2014 having a 47% y/y decline in PPV buys and a 40% decline in earnings) was really way off. I have no idea why I thought they were in trouble in January of this year, especially since everything worked out SO well...

Here's a link to the original thread. You can re-read my shit analysis there...

http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/mma.cfm?go=forum_framed.posts&forum=1&thread=2274227&page=1&pc=394

Here are some quotes from my shit analysis from a year ago:

"Zuffa has attempted to cover this PPV gap with their expansion into Brazil and worldwide and the difference between the FOX deal and the SPIKE deal but, at best, that is a wash which means no growth for the UFC since 2010 and a possible contraction regardless of the mainstream push."

"Add the losses of Brock Lesnar, GSP and now Anderson Silva and the PPV prospects for the future look extremely dim."

"When your numbers are 30% lower than they were 3 years ago, year to year doesn't mean shit."

"...I see the problem as Zuffa's lack of desire to create stars. We are basically saying the same thing but I am attributing the problem to a strategy and not just injury happenstance. "

"The only reason Anderson became a draw was a perfect storm of his spectacular finishes, his feud with Chael and the NON STOP push by Zuffa as the GOAT. That is extremely hard to reproduce and without a massively charismatic athlete (like Brock or GSP) you are just not going to see PPV numbers for anyone currently imo... "

Here is a quote from YOU on that thread: "2nd highest PPV in the history of the promotion. second year of increases in row. yes, haulport, this is especially worrisome. brilliant analysis as usual."

With the way 2014 turned out I guess you were right again!!!
12/22/14 3:38 PM
2/28/07
Posts: 20422
MITman2k - 

Apparently, one strategy will be to increase PPV prices(hd) again. The first three PPV events of next year are $5 bucks  over UFC 181's price. Whether that will continue for other events in the new year will be something that we'll see i guess :/


The laws of supply and demand!!

No one wants your product so raise the price?!?!?!?!?!?!?







The unfortunately reality is that this is how Comic Books and Movie Studios have kept their revs on the rise in the face of stagnating ticket and comic book purchases. Zuffa problems are so bad that I doubt this will help much. My guess is it will scare away enough purchases to do nothing but break even rev-wise, with cheaper PPVs...
12/22/14 4:32 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 14047
It's ridiculous to think the UFC doesn't want stars. Of course it does. Stars are what attracts fans and viewers, and they know it.
Some responsibility lies on the fighter and their personality/performance. This isn't the WWE.

UFC promotes fighters with their Countdowns, Embedded, etc. Hell, they name the PPV's after the main event fighters.

Anyways, UFC needs to move away from the PPV model. Paying $60+ to watch a sports event is ridiculous.
12/22/14 4:33 PM
7/28/13
Posts: 4929

The Baldfather told fans "if you don't like it, don't watch" and "fuck your dollar"...people apparently listened.

12/22/14 4:41 PM
2/28/07
Posts: 20423
dabigchet - haulport, even you cherry picking what you perceive to be your greatest hits out of that other thread illustrates my point.

"Zuffa has attempted to cover this PPV gap with their expansion into Brazil and worldwide and the difference between the FOX deal and the SPIKE deal but, at best, that is a wash which means no growth for the UFC since 2010..."

this is shit analysis. growth isnt measured only in revenue. UFC is in way more markets now than in 2010. whether or not that will prove to be worth it in the long run remains to be seen.

"...I see the problem as Zuffa's lack of desire to create stars"

another shit analysis. the desire is there. the execution is not. and really, this is not the WWE. all the desire in the world is not going to create a GSP out of johny hendricks or demetrious johnson.

"When your numbers are 30% lower than they were 3 years ago, year to year doesn't mean shit."

this is shit analysis. of course growth matters. UFC will likely never reach those PPV peaks again, even if they do everything right. so why are you measuring them by that standard?

no stars and no marquee matchups means shit PPV and that is what 2014 saw. pointing out that 2013 actually showed some growth is not some statement that it is going to continue in 2014 no matter what main events are put on. do you really need to be told that?


I'm done with you. You are either personally so full of shit that you can't bring yourself to admit how unbelievably wrong you are/were or you are just being intentionally disingenuous for whatever reasons that can't be known.

I stated that the model was collapsing and that the numbers were worrisome. I stated this was even more worrisome since brock, gsp and anderson were all gone and there was no one to replace them. I cherry picked nothing re: those quotes. Most of them are right from my first few posts. And I was right beyond anyone thought would happen in 2014. If Zuffa was a public company and I was a broker sending out recommendations and analysis in January 2014 to my clients about their positions in Zuffa, I'd be getting year end gifts GALORE from my clients...

There is just NOTHING WORSE than people who can't and won't admit when they are woefully wrong...
12/22/14 4:43 PM
2/28/07
Posts: 20425
I Wild Each It - 

The Baldfather told fans "if you don't like it, don't watch" and "fuck your dollar"...people apparently listened.


LOL!

His sterling personality is yet another reason for people being so tired of the UFC product...
12/22/14 5:09 PM
3/18/13
Posts: 112
How has this thread gone five pages without mention of the streamers. It's the streamers!!! 3-5 years ago no one I knew streamed the events. Now EVERY MMA fan I know does.

I know it's not possible, but I'd love to see the PPV viewership numbers including the illegal streams. I bet the drop in viewership is no where near 47% when you account for increases in illegal distribution.

Now that doesn't mean that Zuffa doesn't have a PPV problem. They clearly do. But IMO it's more to do with the fanbase realizing there are alternative means than the fanbase going away. Eventually, I believe the PPVs will shift to Fox or ESPN and this issue will be solved and the real viewership data will emerge (they already do on Big Fox shows - 3.8 MM viewers for JDS/Miocic).
12/22/14 5:10 PM
2/28/07
Posts: 20426
You were wrong about everything. I was completely right to the tune of a 47% drop in PPV buys and a 40% loss of earnings in 2014 based on the trends I was seeing, the dearth of star power and the strategy in place. What was I wrong about?

Your phoniness stinks and it's starting to smell more like troll than some personal issue you have with being wrong...

So have a Merry Christmas and keep staring at that chart from page 1 that proved everything I said nearly 12 months ago about Zuffa and their business and think about how utterly wrong you were about the same...
12/22/14 5:12 PM
2/28/07
Posts: 20427
LawFitz - How has this thread gone five pages without mention of the streamers. It's the streamers!!! 3-5 years ago no one I knew streamed the events. Now EVERY MMA fan I know does.

I know it's not possible, but I'd love to see the PPV viewership numbers including the illegal streams. I bet the drop in viewership is no where near 47% when you account for increases in illegal distribution.

Now that doesn't mean that Zuffa doesn't have a PPV problem. They clearly do. But IMO it's more to do with the fanbase realizing there are alternative means than the fanbase going away. Eventually, I believe the PPVs will shift to Fox or ESPN and this issue will be solved and the real viewership data will emerge (they already do on Big Fox shows - 3.8 MM viewers for JDS/Miocic).

LOL! DO you work for Frank and Lorenzo? Streaming didn't take anything away from their biz. Streams have been around for years and years and no one throws a UFC party and invites all their friends over to watch a shitty stream on their computer... The problem is that no one is getting together for UFCs anymore.
12/22/14 5:18 PM
2/28/07
Posts: 20428
dabigchet - "You were wrong about everything"

specifically?

Nah, you tell me what I was wrong about.
Edited: 12/22/14 5:23 PM
3/18/13
Posts: 113
Haulport - "Streaming didn't take anything away from their biz."

Sorry dude, but we fundamentally disagree on this point. I think the watered down PPVs made people search for alternative means of viewership the last few years. Once they discovered that they could watch the PPVs for free, that mentality bled into even the high-end PPVs and orders (but not necessarily viewership) plummeted.
12/22/14 5:24 PM
2/28/07
Posts: 20429
LawFitz - Haulport - "Streaming didn't take anything away from their biz."

Sorry dude, but we fundamentally disagree on this point. I think the watered down PPVs made people search for alternative means of viewership the last few years. Once they discovered that they could watch the PPVs for free, that mentality bled into even the high-end PPVs and orders (but not necessarily viewership) plummeted.

I look to the 1.1mm PPV buys Silva Weidman II did and think that if there were more interesting cards they would be much much better off regardless of streaming.
12/22/14 5:26 PM
2/28/07
Posts: 20430
Sobchak - I havent read all the numbers put forward in this thread, nor have i verified the ones i have read. What i can suggest however is that a drop in ppv and simultaneous reduction in earnings does not in and of itself demonstrate causation. Assuming you are not referring to earnings as gross revenue, there are lots of reasons earnings can drop. Especially in a year where we have seen significant increase in costs across the board. Phone Post 3.0

It is just a correlation. A very, very bad one that indicates something is up. I didn't see anything that indicates they spent more money this year than last year (but they could have). Even Moody's analysis blames PPV losses on the drop in earnings.
12/22/14 5:34 PM
3/18/13
Posts: 114
Haulport - "Streams have been around for years and years"

True, but it wasn't until the last few years that streaming went mainstream. (IMHO)

Unfortunately, we have no reliable means to support or refute this assertion with aggregate data. I wish someone would do a poll about this across multiple MMA websites to see if my hypothesis has any merit. I think the numbers would show a substantial spike in illegal streaming that would coincide well with reduced PPV buys.
Edited: 12/22/14 5:39 PM
7/28/13
Posts: 4932

Streaming may be a problem, but it's not the reason PPV buys are down.  Hell, just go to any BW3's or Hooters during a PPV and see for yourself.  You used to have to get there 2-3 hours before an event to get a table...now they are ghost towns.  Many of them have chosen to not even buy/show the PPV's anymore because they weren't making their money back on them.  Try getting 5-6 guys to spend their Saturday night at your place to watch a card nowadays...it ain't happening.

The reality is the UFC peaked when Brock, GSP, and Anderson were hot from 2008-2010.  Those three are gone, the casuals and WWE fans left with them, and the fad is over.  The UFC chose to invest in building their brand (Dana) and global expansion (500 fighters and watered down cards)...over investing in new stars (Aldo, Barao - before he lost, Weidman after he beat Silva), reinvesting in Canada (Rory), and continued focus on the US.  Not they're paying the price. 

So...fuck em.  They did it to themselves.

12/22/14 5:46 PM
6/5/05
Posts: 35658
No one has ufc parties anymore. I usually have to go to the bar alone. Sucks cuz i personally think the product is better than ever but there is no doubt im in the minority. Phone Post 3.0