UnderGround Forums Why Cotsa defeats Adesanya IMO

9/25/20 2:36 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 1085

 

Thoughts?

9/25/20 2:53 PM
8/23/04
Posts: 7402

TTT

9/25/20 2:57 PM
10/2/06
Posts: 20492

Great analysis. Always enjoy hearing it from the professional athlete's standpoint..

9/25/20 3:05 PM
11/11/11
Posts: 9987

I agree with every word of this analysis.

Coming in I was thinking Costa could get fatigued if he doesn't get the early finish - I imagined him getting some big damage in early on but Adesanya weathering it and taking the later rounds - but the point about how much volume it will take for that to happen is spot on.

Of course, reality often plays out much different than analysis but I wouldn't bet on Adesanya in this one.

9/25/20 3:15 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 1086
Sgt_Doakes_Got_Jokes -

Great analysis. Always enjoy hearing it from the professional athlete's standpoint..

Thanks!

9/25/20 3:20 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 1087
kevsh -

I agree with every word of this analysis.

Coming in I was thinking Costa could get fatigued if he doesn't get the early finish - I imagined him getting some big damage in early on but Adesanya weathering it and taking the later rounds - but the point about how much volume it will take for that to happen is spot on.

Of course, reality often plays out much different than analysis but I wouldn't bet on Adesanya in this one.

I have been a pressure fighter and had my way, and I have been pressured and it was a horrible experience. make fights. We have seen Adesanya kinda panic and run away from pressure, as he should of course. He is a kickboxer who likes his space. And we have seen Costa back up a beast like Romero and panic him. 
 

Another consideration is that Adesanya is a very wild striker and it’s hard to do that while getting pressured back and it’s likely he may end up unbalanced and on his back. That’s another huge advantage for Costa with a strength advantage and a BJJ BB. Even if he just uses basic positioning and powerful ground and pound. 

9/25/20 3:24 PM
8/23/04
Posts: 7403

Hey Mike. Great to see you on the UG. Thanks for the vid. Nice breakdown. It certainly feels that Costa is winning the mind games battle with Israel getting emotional and trying too hard to one up a non-English speaking fighter like Costa.

 

The thing that worries me is not that Adesanya might finish Costa like 99 percent of analysts are claiming because of the counter striker vs the brawler type scenario, I am in disagreement with this since Costa stood with Romero straight in the pocket like it was nothing and took every one of the Romeros shots like it was nothing. What worries me is the fact that Adesanya has great footwork and when he meets a bigger bully than himself he becomes spineless and uses that footwork to run away from danger. I can certainly see a Jones vs Reyes type situation where Costa cannot tag Runnersanya because he keeps evading and not engaging, and also the judges seeing that Costa did not do enough damage because of Runnersanya being the champ and avoiding damage. The fans would hate this decision because Costa is so durable I do not believe Runnersanya can finish Costa especially when backing up. There's no way. Not against Costa.

 

So I guess we could see Runnersanya being on his bicycle for 5 straight rounds like his fight vs Romero and eventually receiving a bad judges decision because Costa, even though he was the aggressor, loses a split type decision because he couldn't put away the champ. We have seen this happen time and again with other divisions like Jones vs Reyes. Reyes absolutely won that fight. 

 

Would love your feedback on this. How do you deal with a rangy fighter with great footwork that would tag and do just enough to look good in the judges eyes. Costa need to cut off the ring yes now the UFC is bringing the bigger cage and this is good for Adesanya because he can run all day away from Costas power shots.

 

I see this going to a controversial decision. 

9/25/20 3:51 PM
10/15/15
Posts: 367
Enjoyed the breakdown. Thanks for posting the video.
Edited: 9/25/20 4:23 PM
8/23/04
Posts: 7406

Just to be clear I am not worried about Costa for his 5 round cardio. I am sure he can handle it due to a difficult month's long fight camp. They are ready for this.

 

What I'm worried about is the fact that Adesanya can run all day and do pitter patter punches while Costa doing the most leg and body damage and still getting away with a split judges decision because he survived. The judges might give the favor wrongly to Adesanya. Fans would be pissed because they would clearly see that Costa was being the aggressor the whole fight. 

9/25/20 4:29 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 1088
sureshock -

Hey Mike. Great to see you on the UG. Thanks for the vid. Nice breakdown. It certainly feels that Costa is winning the mind games battle with Israel getting emotional and trying too hard to one up a non-English speaking fighter like Costa.

 

The thing that worries me is not that Adesanya might finish Costa like 99 percent of analysts are claiming because of the counter striker vs the brawler type scenario, I am in disagreement with this since Costa stood with Romero straight in the pocket like it was nothing and took every one of the Romeros shots like it was nothing. What worries me is the fact that Adesanya has great footwork and when he meets a bigger bully than himself he becomes spineless and uses that footwork to run away from danger. I can certainly see a Jones vs Reyes type situation where Costa cannot tag Runnersanya because he keeps evading and not engaging, and also the judges seeing that Costa did not do enough damage because of Runnersanya being the champ and avoiding damage. The fans would hate this decision because Costa is so durable I do not believe Runnersanya can finish Costa especially when backing up. There's no way. Not against Costa.

 

So I guess we could see Runnersanya being on his bicycle for 5 straight rounds like his fight vs Romero and eventually receiving a bad judges decision because Costa, even though he was the aggressor, loses a split type decision because he couldn't put away the champ. We have seen this happen time and again with other divisions like Jones vs Reyes. Reyes absolutely won that fight. 

 

Would love your feedback on this. How do you deal with a rangy fighter with great footwork that would tag and do just enough to look good in the judges eyes. Costa need to cut off the ring yes now the UFC is bringing the bigger cage and this is good for Adesanya because he can run all day away from Costas power shots.

 

I see this going to a controversial decision. 

Good input and it will come down to Costa having to pressure Adesanya back. I just think he will be able to. He has been training to fight Adesanya and I am sure he has done his homework on how to cut off the ring and count that footwork. Even if he has to use his pressure off Adesanyas strikes. 

9/25/20 4:30 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 1089
Ancient Wolf - Enjoyed the breakdown. Thanks for posting the video.

Glad you liked it! I am no expert, just my opinion... ;)

9/25/20 4:32 PM
2/9/09
Posts: 14181

Izzy KOs Costa after Costa over commits

9/25/20 4:47 PM
8/23/04
Posts: 7411
Bend The Knee -

Izzy KOs Costa after Costa over commits

Easy prediction but Costa stood in front of Romero in the pocket and he came out on top. When has Israel KOed anyone backing up? I'll wait. 

9/25/20 4:59 PM
1/3/20
Posts: 3561
Actually, a logical breakdown based on what he have seen in each of these fighters.

Adesanya is far from the striker he and many others think he is. When pressured his defense is bad, chin up/lean back method.

9/25/20 6:23 PM
7/16/13
Posts: 1113

Awesome breakdown. Changed my mind. 

9/25/20 6:52 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 66945

ttt

9/25/20 6:53 PM
10/27/03
Posts: 26951
sureshock -
Bend The Knee -

Izzy KOs Costa after Costa over commits

Easy prediction but Costa stood in front of Romero in the pocket and he came out on top. When has Israel KOed anyone backing up? I'll wait. 

Whitaker tried to pressure him and lunge in swinging bombs and got dropped at the end of the first and then KO’d soon into the second.

9/25/20 9:28 PM
12/4/11
Posts: 626

I hope you’re right Mike!  Izzy drives me nuts!

9/25/20 10:12 PM
1/7/11
Posts: 510

Costa has issues cutting off the cage when they escape left. If they use right though, he unloads with punches and a sweet body kick. 

I expect lots of back and forth escaping from Adesanya. Lots of jabs (arguably, another glaring weakness of Costa's defense), and potentially some ruthless calf kicks to keep Costa from walking him down. 

Costa could win with just a couple of flush strikes though. 

I don't think anyone is going for a take down.

Should be a great fight, both fighters are game af!

9/25/20 10:22 PM
11/10/18
Posts: 9765

Good vid. I can’t get over the trouble Gastelum gave Adesanya. Costa is just a more imposing version and ill be surprised if he doesn’t steamroll Adesanya. 

9/25/20 10:27 PM
1/3/20
Posts: 3571
Eskimo - 

Good vid. I can’t get over the trouble Gastelum gave Adesanya. Costa is just a more imposing version and ill be surprised if he doesn’t steamroll Adesanya. 


Exactly! Gastelum beat the shit out of Adesanya but since he "won" everyone seems to brush aside the facts from that fight.
9/25/20 11:16 PM
3/20/20
Posts: 5
Mike Swick -
Ancient Wolf - Enjoyed the breakdown. Thanks for posting the video.

Glad you liked it! I am no expert, just my opinion... ;)

Big fan Mike always got pumped up for your fights. You had amazing hand speed and KO power.

9/25/20 11:35 PM
12/25/15
Posts: 2849

I think Izzy championship experience will take him to victory after Costa gasses out in the first round but you may have changed my mind Mike! Cant wait!

.

9/26/20 12:27 AM
10/9/10
Posts: 16595
KaiTangata -
Eskimo - 

Good vid. I can’t get over the trouble Gastelum gave Adesanya. Costa is just a more imposing version and ill be surprised if he doesn’t steamroll Adesanya. 


Exactly! Gastelum beat the shit out of Adesanya but since he "won" everyone seems to brush aside the facts from that fight.

Gastelum is far more technical than Costa. He’s faster, and has legit ONE PUNCH knockout power. Costa doesn’t one shot KO dudes, he overwhelms them with volume. Kelvin didn’t “beat the shit” out of Israel. He out struck Izzy early on and hurt him. Israel came back and dropped Gastelum FOUR times in the 5th and Kelvin was saved by the bell. The only person that got the shit beat of them was Kelvin in the 5th round. 

9/26/20 12:31 AM
5/22/17
Posts: 2306
MasterofMartialArts -
KaiTangata -
Eskimo - 

Good vid. I can’t get over the trouble Gastelum gave Adesanya. Costa is just a more imposing version and ill be surprised if he doesn’t steamroll Adesanya. 


Exactly! Gastelum beat the shit out of Adesanya but since he "won" everyone seems to brush aside the facts from that fight.

Gastelum is far more technical than Costa. He’s faster, and has legit ONE PUNCH knockout power. Costa doesn’t one shot KO dudes, he overwhelms them with volume. Kelvin didn’t “beat the shit” out of Israel. He out struck Izzy early on and hurt him. Israel came back and dropped Gastelum FOUR times in the 5th and Kelvin was saved by the bell. The only person that got the shit beat of them was Kelvin in the 5th round. 

Israel was getting lit up by a midget lol costa destroys him