OtherGround Forums OG doc. AMA on COVID-19

8/6/20 3:27 PM
11/16/09
Posts: 4720
Dangerousdoug - Why are experts so certain of a second wave when there wasnt one for both sars and mers iirc? is it just with how widespread this virus is?

Possible this virus can mutate much like the spanish flu did and the second wave be much deadlier? Or is that more of an outlier and most 2nd waves are less lethal? cheers.

Probably because they are looking at the disaster in which ADD Americans can't keep to themselves or listen to actual scientists on how to slow/stop this thing. 

Covid19 social distancing? More like covid20 partay bruh yeeeeeew!

8/6/20 6:22 PM
7/28/08
Posts: 1969
Job Security -
arc123 -
arc123 -
Job Security -
mataleo1 -
Lazarus - If we just let it run rampant through the kids... would that get us closer to herd immunity?

Well, if we needed an added 10 or 20% more of COVID cases to get us at herd immunity, then yes, it would be preferable for these cases to be kids than older people.

It all depends on where the chains of transmission are happening though. Herd immunity in children will only protect against transmission through this group. So while it will reduce transmission to school staff and families with school children, it will only indirectly (and to a lesser extent) affect other chains of transmission, that seem to be key factors to controlling the epidemic. Like public transportation, indoor social gatherings, meat processing factories, long term care facilities etc.

Even so, as long the epidemic is relatively controlled, I think there’s a strong case for keeping schools open if you take all possible precautions (move c l a s s e s outdoors, or at the very least to larger rooms/smaller c l a s s sizes and keep as much distance as feasible, staggered attendance times and shielding vulnerable teachers, children, parents and other family members)

Cool post JS. Thanks for your input, I love your suggestions in making the school experience as daunting to the small people as far as possible. It’s a well thought out and written proposal. 

Actually I’ve now re-read your post - it reads like it’s written by an early-form, prototype AI bot. Get fucked with your proposals for schools. 

It’s not my primary language and it’s on the phone app - I’m glad you could make any sense of it. I don’t get your reaction though, what part of it triggered you?

From my experience, my son didn’t find that stuff daunting at all. It’s what schools in my country did for the 6-12 year-olds from april until the summer holidays started in june. The general experience here was that it was much tougher on the older kids who weren’t allowed back in school. They had to do remote/virtual from home, and a good part of them felt alone and overall shitty about the situation.

Then I then I apologise for being a dick! 

 

Nothing ‘triggered’ me (whatever that actually means), just fundamentally disagree with your views on how school age children should approach health and well being.
 

 

Edited: 8/11/20 2:29 PM
11/23/10
Posts: 277
arc123 -
Job Security -
arc123 -
arc123 -
Job Security -
mataleo1 -
Lazarus - If we just let it run rampant through the kids... would that get us closer to herd immunity?

Well, if we needed an added 10 or 20% more of COVID cases to get us at herd immunity, then yes, it would be preferable for these cases to be kids than older people.

It all depends on where the chains of transmission are happening though. Herd immunity in children will only protect against transmission through this group. So while it will reduce transmission to school staff and families with school children, it will only indirectly (and to a lesser extent) affect other chains of transmission, that seem to be key factors to controlling the epidemic. Like public transportation, indoor social gatherings, meat processing factories, long term care facilities etc.

Even so, as long the epidemic is relatively controlled, I think there’s a strong case for keeping schools open if you take all possible precautions (move c l a s s e s outdoors, or at the very least to larger rooms/smaller c l a s s sizes and keep as much distance as feasible, staggered attendance times and shielding vulnerable teachers, children, parents and other family members)

Cool post JS. Thanks for your input, I love your suggestions in making the school experience as daunting to the small people as far as possible. It’s a well thought out and written proposal. 

Actually I’ve now re-read your post - it reads like it’s written by an early-form, prototype AI bot. Get fucked with your proposals for schools. 

It’s not my primary language and it’s on the phone app - I’m glad you could make any sense of it. I don’t get your reaction though, what part of it triggered you?

From my experience, my son didn’t find that stuff daunting at all. It’s what schools in my country did for the 6-12 year-olds from april until the summer holidays started in june. The general experience here was that it was much tougher on the older kids who weren’t allowed back in school. They had to do remote/virtual from home, and a good part of them felt alone and overall shitty about the situation.

Then I then I apologise for being a dick! 

 

Nothing ‘triggered’ me (whatever that actually means), just fundamentally disagree with your views on how school age children should approach health and well being.
 

 

No worries!

I don’t think we disagree THAT much. I agree that with kids that young, you can’t put it on them to change their behavior and take precautions. Kids aren’t going to stop picking their noses, distance themselves from friends or wear masks all day. You can (easily) make them use a hand sanitizer dispenser at the door when they enter/exit their clas.sroom, but that’s the limit of what they should be mindful of.

What I advocate, is for the school admins and teachers to make the conditions/set-up around the kids as risk-reducing as reasonably possible and let the kids go about their business within that set-up. It’s not a one-fits-all solution, and it’s definitely a pain in the ass for the teachers and parents, but not the kids as far as I can tell.

Btw. my town is seeing a lot of new cases again, so this monday the schools went back to the precautions from before the summer. Fuck.

8/11/20 3:35 PM
7/15/11
Posts: 18598

Mata,

I’ve talked to you about already having it back in March. Losing my smell was by far the worst symptom I had. My question is do know if there’s any studies to read up on that specific symptom? My smell came back to around 80% (just ballpark) but it’s now gone the opposite. Not gone but less than 50% imo and I’m smelling a slightly burnt scent again. It’s different but weird. I know a lot of stuff with this crap can linger even if you’re not positive. Appreciate any insight.

8/11/20 5:42 PM
6/22/03
Posts: 7564
Matrix - 

Mata,

I’ve talked to you about already having it back in March. Losing my smell was by far the worst symptom I had. My question is do know if there’s any studies to read up on that specific symptom? My smell came back to around 80% (just ballpark) but it’s now gone the opposite. Not gone but less than 50% imo and I’m smelling a slightly burnt scent again. It’s different but weird. I know a lot of stuff with this crap can linger even if you’re not positive. Appreciate any insight.


Are you at least better at pussy licking now?

8/11/20 5:52 PM
2/5/16
Posts: 1329

Do the Russians really have a viable vaccine?

8/11/20 6:52 PM
11/10/19
Posts: 487

What is the company you would invest in right now for a viable Vacine? $MRNA, AZN, REGN?  

 

Moderna

Regenron

Astrazeneca 

Trump just bouhgt a million dosses from Moderna today! 

or other?

8/11/20 7:56 PM
7/15/11
Posts: 18607
Lazarus -
Matrix - 

Mata,

I’ve talked to you about already having it back in March. Losing my smell was by far the worst symptom I had. My question is do know if there’s any studies to read up on that specific symptom? My smell came back to around 80% (just ballpark) but it’s now gone the opposite. Not gone but less than 50% imo and I’m smelling a slightly burnt scent again. It’s different but weird. I know a lot of stuff with this crap can linger even if you’re not positive. Appreciate any insight.


Are you at least better at pussy licking now?

My each it skills are still up to snuff

8/11/20 8:04 PM
1/1/01
Posts: 16127
IamHe -

What is the company you would invest in right now for a viable Vacine? $MRNA, AZN, REGN?  

 

Moderna

Regenron

Astrazeneca 

Trump just bouhgt a million dosses from Moderna today! 

or other?

Pfizer,  they haven’t taken any fed money so theyll be able to charge more for their vaccine 

8/11/20 9:56 PM
8/6/20
Posts: 1

Hey doc.  A question: 

From the beginning I have taken this thing seriously.  I have understood its a big deal.  However, I have always been sceptical of the overall strategy.

It seems to me it is going to be impossible to truly rid the country of the virus until a vaccine is found.

For example, Europe's cases are rising again, just as lockdowns are relaxed.  UK just reported a thousand cases in one day.  Surely this spread will continue.  Afterall at one point the UK had no Covid cases, and they arrived on airplanes.  1000 cases a day (now) is probably more cases than arrived initially on those airplanes.

It seems to me that the virus isnt going anyway, and we are just suppressing its spread.  Holding it down. 

 This makes sense if we are very confident of having a vaccine in a short time.  But what happens if we dont get a vaccine for three or five years?  Do we continue the policy of trying to suppress it for three or five years?

I dont get how we can forumlate a coherent strategy without knowing when a vaccine will be ready.  Unless the strategy is to estimate a likely/possible date for a vaccine - and hope for the best, with no contingency plan, if one is not found.

8/12/20 12:45 AM
10/20/13
Posts: 389
Matrix -

Mata,

I’ve talked to you about already having it back in March. Losing my smell was by far the worst symptom I had. My question is do know if there’s any studies to read up on that specific symptom? My smell came back to around 80% (just ballpark) but it’s now gone the opposite. Not gone but less than 50% imo and I’m smelling a slightly burnt scent again. It’s different but weird. I know a lot of stuff with this crap can linger even if you’re not positive. Appreciate any insight.

That's the smell of burning sulfur, you were that close to the gates of hell ,repent

8/12/20 3:39 AM
7/28/08
Posts: 1984
DY20 -

Hey doc.  A question: 

From the beginning I have taken this thing seriously.  I have understood its a big deal.  However, I have always been sceptical of the overall strategy.

It seems to me it is going to be impossible to truly rid the country of the virus until a vaccine is found.

For example, Europe's cases are rising again, just as lockdowns are relaxed.  UK just reported a thousand cases in one day.  Surely this spread will continue.  Afterall at one point the UK had no Covid cases, and they arrived on airplanes.  1000 cases a day (now) is probably more cases than arrived initially on those airplanes.

It seems to me that the virus isnt going anyway, and we are just suppressing its spread.  Holding it down. 

 This makes sense if we are very confident of having a vaccine in a short time.  But what happens if we dont get a vaccine for three or five years?  Do we continue the policy of trying to suppress it for three or five years?

I dont get how we can forumlate a coherent strategy without knowing when a vaccine will be ready.  Unless the strategy is to estimate a likely/possible date for a vaccine - and hope for the best, with no contingency plan, if one is not found.

Interesting first post DY20! Thanks for joining an MMA forum to specifically liaise with the resident OG Doc about the unprecedented virus.

 

cases are increasing in the U.K. because testing is increasing, it’s that simple. Nobody is dying and nobody is being hospitalised. It is also stated by the WHO that asymptomatic people have a very small transmission rate. 
 

despite the above you don’t have to worry, vaccines will be available later this year / early next year for you to take. 

8/12/20 5:21 AM
10/23/05
Posts: 4313
Matrix - 

Mata,

I’ve talked to you about already having it back in March. Losing my smell was by far the worst symptom I had. My question is do know if there’s any studies to read up on that specific symptom? My smell came back to around 80% (just ballpark) but it’s now gone the opposite. Not gone but less than 50% imo and I’m smelling a slightly burnt scent again. It’s different but weird. I know a lot of stuff with this crap can linger even if you’re not positive. Appreciate any insight.


Hey.

Yes, there are plenty of studies out there regarding anosmia
("loss of smell").

About 40-60% of COVID patients have some loss of smell/ taste.

Median time for anosmia is 7 days. 95% get a full recovery at 30 days. Honestly, I don't do follow-up visits of patients who have recovered, so I don't have much experience here.

Here's one publication: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7211515/#:~:text=Most%20patients%20with%20anosmia%20or,early%20stage%20of%20the%20disease.

It's quite unusual that you still have some problems, and especially that they've worsened.

It would be highly unlikely that you've been infected twice.

More plausibly, it may be seasonal allergies, inflamed mucosa, or your a problem with your olfactory nerve.

I'd take an appointment with an ENT if you can get it.

8/12/20 5:23 AM
10/23/05
Posts: 4314
138 - 

Do the Russians really have a viable vaccine?


I have as much trust in studies coming from Russia as I do from those coming from China. I've worked with enough Russian and Chinese researchers to know there are very shady things going on over there.

I'm going to wait for clinical data and not take Putin's word on this...

8/12/20 5:24 AM
10/23/05
Posts: 4315
IamHe - 

What is the company you would invest in right now for a viable Vacine? $MRNA, AZN, REGN?  

 

Moderna

Regenron

Astrazeneca 

Trump just bouhgt a million dosses from Moderna today! 

or other?


Can't answer (conflict of interest) :)

8/12/20 5:31 AM
10/23/05
Posts: 4316
DY20 - 

Hey doc.  A question: 

From the beginning I have taken this thing seriously.  I have understood its a big deal.  However, I have always been sceptical of the overall strategy.

It seems to me it is going to be impossible to truly rid the country of the virus until a vaccine is found.

For example, Europe's cases are rising again, just as lockdowns are relaxed.  UK just reported a thousand cases in one day.  Surely this spread will continue.  Afterall at one point the UK had no Covid cases, and they arrived on airplanes.  1000 cases a day (now) is probably more cases than arrived initially on those airplanes.

It seems to me that the virus isnt going anyway, and we are just suppressing its spread.  Holding it down. 

 This makes sense if we are very confident of having a vaccine in a short time.  But what happens if we dont get a vaccine for three or five years?  Do we continue the policy of trying to suppress it for three or five years?

I dont get how we can forumlate a coherent strategy without knowing when a vaccine will be ready.  Unless the strategy is to estimate a likely/possible date for a vaccine - and hope for the best, with no contingency plan, if one is not found.


Agreed with what you said. Present strategy is contingent on a vaccine becoming available.

I think this might happen before January. That was my prediction back in April and I still think that's realistic. There are enough trials going on right now, enough resource invested, and enough preliminary data to be optimistic.

So, yes, we are essentially holding the fort until then. Slowing down transmission.

8/12/20 5:35 AM
10/23/05
Posts: 4317
arc123 - 
DY20 -

Hey doc.  A question: 

From the beginning I have taken this thing seriously.  I have understood its a big deal.  However, I have always been sceptical of the overall strategy.

It seems to me it is going to be impossible to truly rid the country of the virus until a vaccine is found.

For example, Europe's cases are rising again, just as lockdowns are relaxed.  UK just reported a thousand cases in one day.  Surely this spread will continue.  Afterall at one point the UK had no Covid cases, and they arrived on airplanes.  1000 cases a day (now) is probably more cases than arrived initially on those airplanes.

It seems to me that the virus isnt going anyway, and we are just suppressing its spread.  Holding it down. 

 This makes sense if we are very confident of having a vaccine in a short time.  But what happens if we dont get a vaccine for three or five years?  Do we continue the policy of trying to suppress it for three or five years?

I dont get how we can forumlate a coherent strategy without knowing when a vaccine will be ready.  Unless the strategy is to estimate a likely/possible date for a vaccine - and hope for the best, with no contingency plan, if one is not found.

Interesting first post DY20! Thanks for joining an MMA forum to specifically liaise with the resident OG Doc about the unprecedented virus.

 

cases are increasing in the U.K. because testing is increasing, it’s that simple. Nobody is dying and nobody is being hospitalised. It is also stated by the WHO that asymptomatic people have a very small transmission rate. 
 

despite the above you don’t have to worry, vaccines will be available later this year / early next year for you to take. 


This might be true in the UK (haven't checked) but it's not true elsewhere.

Cases are definitely going up in several places, like Belgium, Netherlands, France, and obviously in the South US and this is only partially accounted by the enhanced testing. The reason why this isn't reflected in mortality or morbidity is because of who is now infected: younger patients.

8/12/20 8:44 AM
7/15/11
Posts: 18614
mataleo1 -
Matrix - 

Mata,

I’ve talked to you about already having it back in March. Losing my smell was by far the worst symptom I had. My question is do know if there’s any studies to read up on that specific symptom? My smell came back to around 80% (just ballpark) but it’s now gone the opposite. Not gone but less than 50% imo and I’m smelling a slightly burnt scent again. It’s different but weird. I know a lot of stuff with this crap can linger even if you’re not positive. Appreciate any insight.


Hey.

Yes, there are plenty of studies out there regarding anosmia
("loss of smell").

About 40-60% of COVID patients have some loss of smell/ taste.

Median time for anosmia is 7 days. 95% get a full recovery at 30 days. Honestly, I don't do follow-up visits of patients who have recovered, so I don't have much experience here.

Here's one publication: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7211515/#:~:text=Most%20patients%20with%20anosmia%20or,early%20stage%20of%20the%20disease.

It's quite unusual that you still have some problems, and especially that they've worsened.

It would be highly unlikely that you've been infected twice.

More plausibly, it may be seasonal allergies, inflamed mucosa, or your a problem with your olfactory nerve.

I'd take an appointment with an ENT if you can get it.

Yeah I need to go and get it checked out. It’s definitely backtracked. Thanks

8/12/20 11:26 AM
7/28/08
Posts: 1985
mataleo1 - 
arc123 - 
DY20 -

Hey doc.  A question: 

From the beginning I have taken this thing seriously.  I have understood its a big deal.  However, I have always been sceptical of the overall strategy.

It seems to me it is going to be impossible to truly rid the country of the virus until a vaccine is found.

For example, Europe's cases are rising again, just as lockdowns are relaxed.  UK just reported a thousand cases in one day.  Surely this spread will continue.  Afterall at one point the UK had no Covid cases, and they arrived on airplanes.  1000 cases a day (now) is probably more cases than arrived initially on those airplanes.

It seems to me that the virus isnt going anyway, and we are just suppressing its spread.  Holding it down. 

 This makes sense if we are very confident of having a vaccine in a short time.  But what happens if we dont get a vaccine for three or five years?  Do we continue the policy of trying to suppress it for three or five years?

I dont get how we can forumlate a coherent strategy without knowing when a vaccine will be ready.  Unless the strategy is to estimate a likely/possible date for a vaccine - and hope for the best, with no contingency plan, if one is not found.

Interesting first post DY20! Thanks for joining an MMA forum to specifically liaise with the resident OG Doc about the unprecedented virus.

 

cases are increasing in the U.K. because testing is increasing, it’s that simple. Nobody is dying and nobody is being hospitalised. It is also stated by the WHO that asymptomatic people have a very small transmission rate. 
 

despite the above you don’t have to worry, vaccines will be available later this year / early next year for you to take. 


This might be true in the UK (haven't checked) but it's not true elsewhere.

Cases are definitely going up in several places, like Belgium, Netherlands, France, and obviously in the South US and this is only partially accounted by the enhanced testing. The reason why this isn't reflected in mortality or morbidity is because of who is now infected: younger patients.


Hi Doc - Thanks for responding.

I'm assuming that you have the appropriate data to substantiate your statement regarding 'only partially accounted for by enhanced testing'?

I'd love to see this, and understand how you are able to ascertain this fact. My current view is that increased testing is leading to increased cases (to be expected) - I'd (genuinely) like to change my own view on this by seeing the data, or at least better understand your view point as to how you can be certain of this.

Thanks
8/12/20 1:51 PM
8/6/20
Posts: 6
arc123 - 
mataleo1 - 
arc123 - 
DY20 -

Hey doc.  A question: 

From the beginning I have taken this thing seriously.  I have understood its a big deal.  However, I have always been sceptical of the overall strategy.

It seems to me it is going to be impossible to truly rid the country of the virus until a vaccine is found.

For example, Europe's cases are rising again, just as lockdowns are relaxed.  UK just reported a thousand cases in one day.  Surely this spread will continue.  Afterall at one point the UK had no Covid cases, and they arrived on airplanes.  1000 cases a day (now) is probably more cases than arrived initially on those airplanes.

It seems to me that the virus isnt going anyway, and we are just suppressing its spread.  Holding it down. 

 This makes sense if we are very confident of having a vaccine in a short time.  But what happens if we dont get a vaccine for three or five years?  Do we continue the policy of trying to suppress it for three or five years?

I dont get how we can forumlate a coherent strategy without knowing when a vaccine will be ready.  Unless the strategy is to estimate a likely/possible date for a vaccine - and hope for the best, with no contingency plan, if one is not found.

Interesting first post DY20! Thanks for joining an MMA forum to specifically liaise with the resident OG Doc about the unprecedented virus.

 

cases are increasing in the U.K. because testing is increasing, it’s that simple. Nobody is dying and nobody is being hospitalised. It is also stated by the WHO that asymptomatic people have a very small transmission rate. 
 

despite the above you don’t have to worry, vaccines will be available later this year / early next year for you to take. 


This might be true in the UK (haven't checked) but it's not true elsewhere.

Cases are definitely going up in several places, like Belgium, Netherlands, France, and obviously in the South US and this is only partially accounted by the enhanced testing. The reason why this isn't reflected in mortality or morbidity is because of who is now infected: younger patients.


Hi Doc - Thanks for responding.

I'm assuming that you have the appropriate data to substantiate your statement regarding 'only partially accounted for by enhanced testing'?

I'd love to see this, and understand how you are able to ascertain this fact. My current view is that increased testing is leading to increased cases (to be expected) - I'd (genuinely) like to change my own view on this by seeing the data, or at least better understand your view point as to how you can be certain of this.

Thanks

I dont want to get into a debate about Covid because its a subject I am not certain of.  However when you say nobody is dying of covid in the UK - the official figures show that deaths have yet to fall below 50 per day.  Todays number is 77.   46,700 total.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

8/12/20 2:46 PM
7/28/08
Posts: 1986
DY20 -
arc123 - 
mataleo1 - 
arc123 - 
DY20 -

Hey doc.  A question: 

From the beginning I have taken this thing seriously.  I have understood its a big deal.  However, I have always been sceptical of the overall strategy.

It seems to me it is going to be impossible to truly rid the country of the virus until a vaccine is found.

For example, Europe's cases are rising again, just as lockdowns are relaxed.  UK just reported a thousand cases in one day.  Surely this spread will continue.  Afterall at one point the UK had no Covid cases, and they arrived on airplanes.  1000 cases a day (now) is probably more cases than arrived initially on those airplanes.

It seems to me that the virus isnt going anyway, and we are just suppressing its spread.  Holding it down. 

 This makes sense if we are very confident of having a vaccine in a short time.  But what happens if we dont get a vaccine for three or five years?  Do we continue the policy of trying to suppress it for three or five years?

I dont get how we can forumlate a coherent strategy without knowing when a vaccine will be ready.  Unless the strategy is to estimate a likely/possible date for a vaccine - and hope for the best, with no contingency plan, if one is not found.

Interesting first post DY20! Thanks for joining an MMA forum to specifically liaise with the resident OG Doc about the unprecedented virus.

 

cases are increasing in the U.K. because testing is increasing, it’s that simple. Nobody is dying and nobody is being hospitalised. It is also stated by the WHO that asymptomatic people have a very small transmission rate. 
 

despite the above you don’t have to worry, vaccines will be available later this year / early next year for you to take. 


This might be true in the UK (haven't checked) but it's not true elsewhere.

Cases are definitely going up in several places, like Belgium, Netherlands, France, and obviously in the South US and this is only partially accounted by the enhanced testing. The reason why this isn't reflected in mortality or morbidity is because of who is now infected: younger patients.


Hi Doc - Thanks for responding.

I'm assuming that you have the appropriate data to substantiate your statement regarding 'only partially accounted for by enhanced testing'?

I'd love to see this, and understand how you are able to ascertain this fact. My current view is that increased testing is leading to increased cases (to be expected) - I'd (genuinely) like to change my own view on this by seeing the data, or at least better understand your view point as to how you can be certain of this.

Thanks

I dont want to get into a debate about Covid because its a subject I am not certain of.  However when you say nobody is dying of covid in the UK - the official figures show that deaths have yet to fall below 50 per day.  Todays number is 77.   46,700 total.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

It’s pretty cool that you’ve joined an MMA forum to specifically discuss a subject that you don’t want to debate or don’t have any knowledge on! Let me know if you actually do want to debate it and I’ll get back to you! 

8/12/20 3:32 PM
8/18/12
Posts: 97
arc123 -
mataleo1 - 
arc123 - 
DY20 -

Hey doc.  A question: 

From the beginning I have taken this thing seriously.  I have understood its a big deal.  However, I have always been sceptical of the overall strategy.

It seems to me it is going to be impossible to truly rid the country of the virus until a vaccine is found.

For example, Europe's cases are rising again, just as lockdowns are relaxed.  UK just reported a thousand cases in one day.  Surely this spread will continue.  Afterall at one point the UK had no Covid cases, and they arrived on airplanes.  1000 cases a day (now) is probably more cases than arrived initially on those airplanes.

It seems to me that the virus isnt going anyway, and we are just suppressing its spread.  Holding it down. 

 This makes sense if we are very confident of having a vaccine in a short time.  But what happens if we dont get a vaccine for three or five years?  Do we continue the policy of trying to suppress it for three or five years?

I dont get how we can forumlate a coherent strategy without knowing when a vaccine will be ready.  Unless the strategy is to estimate a likely/possible date for a vaccine - and hope for the best, with no contingency plan, if one is not found.

Interesting first post DY20! Thanks for joining an MMA forum to specifically liaise with the resident OG Doc about the unprecedented virus.

 

cases are increasing in the U.K. because testing is increasing, it’s that simple. Nobody is dying and nobody is being hospitalised. It is also stated by the WHO that asymptomatic people have a very small transmission rate. 
 

despite the above you don’t have to worry, vaccines will be available later this year / early next year for you to take. 


This might be true in the UK (haven't checked) but it's not true elsewhere.

Cases are definitely going up in several places, like Belgium, Netherlands, France, and obviously in the South US and this is only partially accounted by the enhanced testing. The reason why this isn't reflected in mortality or morbidity is because of who is now infected: younger patients.


Hi Doc - Thanks for responding.

I'm assuming that you have the appropriate data to substantiate your statement regarding 'only partially accounted for by enhanced testing'?

I'd love to see this, and understand how you are able to ascertain this fact. My current view is that increased testing is leading to increased cases (to be expected) - I'd (genuinely) like to change my own view on this by seeing the data, or at least better understand your view point as to how you can be certain of this.

Thanks

Please Doc. Precisely this question needs to be answered!  Via quanafilable evidence in you would please!  Not trying to be a dick - but I’ve found myself continually asking this ever so important question!

 

appreciate your input as always!! 

8/12/20 3:37 PM
11/23/10
Posts: 278
arc123 -
DY20 -
arc123 - 
mataleo1 - 
arc123 - 
DY20 -

Hey doc.  A question: 

From the beginning I have taken this thing seriously.  I have understood its a big deal.  However, I have always been sceptical of the overall strategy.

It seems to me it is going to be impossible to truly rid the country of the virus until a vaccine is found.

For example, Europe's cases are rising again, just as lockdowns are relaxed.  UK just reported a thousand cases in one day.  Surely this spread will continue.  Afterall at one point the UK had no Covid cases, and they arrived on airplanes.  1000 cases a day (now) is probably more cases than arrived initially on those airplanes.

It seems to me that the virus isnt going anyway, and we are just suppressing its spread.  Holding it down. 

 This makes sense if we are very confident of having a vaccine in a short time.  But what happens if we dont get a vaccine for three or five years?  Do we continue the policy of trying to suppress it for three or five years?

I dont get how we can forumlate a coherent strategy without knowing when a vaccine will be ready.  Unless the strategy is to estimate a likely/possible date for a vaccine - and hope for the best, with no contingency plan, if one is not found.

Interesting first post DY20! Thanks for joining an MMA forum to specifically liaise with the resident OG Doc about the unprecedented virus.

 

cases are increasing in the U.K. because testing is increasing, it’s that simple. Nobody is dying and nobody is being hospitalised. It is also stated by the WHO that asymptomatic people have a very small transmission rate. 
 

despite the above you don’t have to worry, vaccines will be available later this year / early next year for you to take. 


This might be true in the UK (haven't checked) but it's not true elsewhere.

Cases are definitely going up in several places, like Belgium, Netherlands, France, and obviously in the South US and this is only partially accounted by the enhanced testing. The reason why this isn't reflected in mortality or morbidity is because of who is now infected: younger patients.


Hi Doc - Thanks for responding.

I'm assuming that you have the appropriate data to substantiate your statement regarding 'only partially accounted for by enhanced testing'?

I'd love to see this, and understand how you are able to ascertain this fact. My current view is that increased testing is leading to increased cases (to be expected) - I'd (genuinely) like to change my own view on this by seeing the data, or at least better understand your view point as to how you can be certain of this.

Thanks

I dont want to get into a debate about Covid because its a subject I am not certain of.  However when you say nobody is dying of covid in the UK - the official figures show that deaths have yet to fall below 50 per day.  Todays number is 77.   46,700 total.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

It’s pretty cool that you’ve joined an MMA forum to specifically discuss a subject that you don’t want to debate or don’t have any knowledge on! Let me know if you actually do want to debate it and I’ll get back to you! 

The thread is an AMA. The point is to ask questions, not have all the answers. All the discussion/debate is just us assholes hijacking the thread.

8/12/20 4:03 PM
10/23/05
Posts: 4318
arc123 -
mataleo1 - 
arc123 - 
DY20 -

Hey doc.  A question: 

From the beginning I have taken this thing seriously.  I have understood its a big deal.  However, I have always been sceptical of the overall strategy.

It seems to me it is going to be impossible to truly rid the country of the virus until a vaccine is found.

For example, Europe's cases are rising again, just as lockdowns are relaxed.  UK just reported a thousand cases in one day.  Surely this spread will continue.  Afterall at one point the UK had no Covid cases, and they arrived on airplanes.  1000 cases a day (now) is probably more cases than arrived initially on those airplanes.

It seems to me that the virus isnt going anyway, and we are just suppressing its spread.  Holding it down. 

 This makes sense if we are very confident of having a vaccine in a short time.  But what happens if we dont get a vaccine for three or five years?  Do we continue the policy of trying to suppress it for three or five years?

I dont get how we can forumlate a coherent strategy without knowing when a vaccine will be ready.  Unless the strategy is to estimate a likely/possible date for a vaccine - and hope for the best, with no contingency plan, if one is not found.

Interesting first post DY20! Thanks for joining an MMA forum to specifically liaise with the resident OG Doc about the unprecedented virus.

 

cases are increasing in the U.K. because testing is increasing, it’s that simple. Nobody is dying and nobody is being hospitalised. It is also stated by the WHO that asymptomatic people have a very small transmission rate. 
 

despite the above you don’t have to worry, vaccines will be available later this year / early next year for you to take. 


This might be true in the UK (haven't checked) but it's not true elsewhere.

Cases are definitely going up in several places, like Belgium, Netherlands, France, and obviously in the South US and this is only partially accounted by the enhanced testing. The reason why this isn't reflected in mortality or morbidity is because of who is now infected: younger patients.


Hi Doc - Thanks for responding.

I'm assuming that you have the appropriate data to substantiate your statement regarding 'only partially accounted for by enhanced testing'?

I'd love to see this, and understand how you are able to ascertain this fact. My current view is that increased testing is leading to increased cases (to be expected) - I'd (genuinely) like to change my own view on this by seeing the data, or at least better understand your view point as to how you can be certain of this.

Thanks

Since you made the prior allegation that cases are increasing bcs we're testing more, would you care to substantiate your claim? I'll do my part tomorrow 

 

 

8/12/20 4:06 PM
7/28/08
Posts: 1987
Huligan -
arc123 -
mataleo1 - 
arc123 - 
DY20 -

Hey doc.  A question: 

From the beginning I have taken this thing seriously.  I have understood its a big deal.  However, I have always been sceptical of the overall strategy.

It seems to me it is going to be impossible to truly rid the country of the virus until a vaccine is found.

For example, Europe's cases are rising again, just as lockdowns are relaxed.  UK just reported a thousand cases in one day.  Surely this spread will continue.  Afterall at one point the UK had no Covid cases, and they arrived on airplanes.  1000 cases a day (now) is probably more cases than arrived initially on those airplanes.

It seems to me that the virus isnt going anyway, and we are just suppressing its spread.  Holding it down. 

 This makes sense if we are very confident of having a vaccine in a short time.  But what happens if we dont get a vaccine for three or five years?  Do we continue the policy of trying to suppress it for three or five years?

I dont get how we can forumlate a coherent strategy without knowing when a vaccine will be ready.  Unless the strategy is to estimate a likely/possible date for a vaccine - and hope for the best, with no contingency plan, if one is not found.

Interesting first post DY20! Thanks for joining an MMA forum to specifically liaise with the resident OG Doc about the unprecedented virus.

 

cases are increasing in the U.K. because testing is increasing, it’s that simple. Nobody is dying and nobody is being hospitalised. It is also stated by the WHO that asymptomatic people have a very small transmission rate. 
 

despite the above you don’t have to worry, vaccines will be available later this year / early next year for you to take. 


This might be true in the UK (haven't checked) but it's not true elsewhere.

Cases are definitely going up in several places, like Belgium, Netherlands, France, and obviously in the South US and this is only partially accounted by the enhanced testing. The reason why this isn't reflected in mortality or morbidity is because of who is now infected: younger patients.


Hi Doc - Thanks for responding.

I'm assuming that you have the appropriate data to substantiate your statement regarding 'only partially accounted for by enhanced testing'?

I'd love to see this, and understand how you are able to ascertain this fact. My current view is that increased testing is leading to increased cases (to be expected) - I'd (genuinely) like to change my own view on this by seeing the data, or at least better understand your view point as to how you can be certain of this.

Thanks

Please Doc. Precisely this question needs to be answered!  Via quanafilable evidence in you would please!  Not trying to be a dick - but I’ve found myself continually asking this ever so important question!

 

appreciate your input as always!! 

Glad we’re aligned in our view Huligan!